Short on time today, but I really wanted to address today’s newest hot rumor: WFAN in New York City, probably going off this ESPN blog, is reporting that the Dodgers are hot on the trail of Orioles LHP Erik Bedard, with Matt Kemp and Jonathan Broxton rumored to be amongst the players headed East.
First, lets address: do we want Bedard? Well. Yes. Sure, there’s the 5th-place finish in the AL Cy Young race this year, and the best K/9ip ratio in the entire league at 10.93, despite having to face the Sox and Yankees and Rays (who have a pretty solid lineup) more than anyone else.
But when I evaluate a player, what I really like to see are trends. This is how we could be pretty sure that Luis Gonzalez was going to be a bust, because his OPS has been going down steadily for about 6 years now. Trends are a good sign that a player is still improving, or has peaked and is declining.
So what are Bedard’s trends, in his 4 full seasons of starting (04-07)?
ERA+: 100, 108, 121, 146
WHIP: 1.602, 1.384, 1.350, 1.088
He’ll be 29 on Opening Day. He did get hurt last season and missed the last month – though at least it was with a strained oblique, not arm issues. Adding him to our current rotation? A front 4 of Bedard/Penny/Lowe/Billingsley is mighty mighty tasty. And then if Schmidt can come anywhere close to what he had been as the #5 starter.. well, that ain’t not half bad.
As for paying the price? I’m torn. On one hand, if it’s Broxton/Kemp/lesser pieces, it sure is refreshing to see that a deal can be made without having to give up Kershaw, Loney, or LaRoche.
On the other hand, if Kemp’s out the door, something has to be done about the offense. Perhaps signing Rowand, or Jones.
I’m really torn. I know this post is less about stats, and more stream-of-conciousness, but that’s what happens when I try to sneak these in at work.
Final analysis: if this happens, I won’t be horribly upset about it. And I will love watching this pitching staff. But a big part of me wonders if we shouldn’t just sign Kuroda, and keep Kemp and/or go after another bat.
Then again. Erik Bedard in Blue. Tasty, tasty thoughts.
What’s your thoughts?