Baseball Prospectus just put out their 2008 “Weighted Mean” Projections, their first look at guessing what 2008 will look like. As it’s a for-pay service, I won’t copy and paste the entire thing here, but a quick first glance caught my eye. Here’s what their best guesses at W-L records and ERA will be for the projected Dodger starting rotation:
Brad Penny: 9-9, 4.29 ERA
Derek Lowe: 9-9, 4.12 ERA
Chad Billingsley: 8-8, 3.96 ERA
Hiroki Kuroda: 10-9, 4.12 ERA
Jason Schmidt: 4-5, 4.57 ERA
Wow. Slightly pessimistic, no? You may have also noticed that, while we all know that W-L records are not the greatest way to grade a pitcher, this fivesome adds up to exactly a .500 record, with only newcomer Kuroda (!) even getting to ten wins. This despite a 2007 in which the top 3 of Penny, Lowe, and Billingsley garnered 16, 12, and 12 wins respectively, to finish a cumulative 17 games over .500.
I predict: these are way off.