Dodgers Face Steep Historical Odds

Kemp and the Dodgers are looking up at 3 teams in the division

Over at SI.com, Tom Verducci lays some harsh truth on us, looking at the historical precedent for teams who entered June at least five games under .500 and five games out of first place.

I looked at where every team stood in the standings through May 31 in the 15 full seasons with the wild card format (1996-2010). I checked the closest they were to any playoff spot, whether it was the division title or the wild card. Here are the facts:

• Of the 143 teams that began June at least five games under .500, 136 didn’t make the playoffs — a 95.1 percent failure rate.

• Of the 184 teams at least five games out of any playoff spot, 174 didn’t make the playoffs — a 94.6 percent failure rate.

• Of the 126 teams both at least five games under and five games out, 121 didn’t make the playoffs, a 96.0 failure rate.

After last night’s loss to Ubaldo Jimenez and the Rockies, the Dodgers now stand six games under .500 and 5.5 games out of first. It’s tough to think that this team, one that we knew was severely flawed even before the season started and the massive injuries occurred, is going to be the one that bucks history. That’s particularly true when you look at the other members of Verducci’s “five out and five under” club, some of whom came back with either a historic hot streak (17 wins in 18 games for the 2009 Rockies) or overwhelming offense (968 runs for the 2007 Yankees). It’s not like those teams had to deal with the crippling off-the-field issues this crew is facing, either.

This all seems pretty bleak, but I’m not completely ready to give up hope just yet, because the Dodgers do have a few things in their favor. First, there’s no runaway favorite in the NL West. Who really thinks that Arizona is going to stick in first place all season? While I do think the Giants and Rockies are each more talented clubs than the Dodgers, neither have been able to put the pieces together just yet – and the Giants could really be in trouble now that Buster Posey is gone and last year’s collection of mediocre veterans having perfectly-timed career years have predictably turned back into pumpkins. Being in a weak division is how one other member of Verducci’s group made it back – the 2007 Cubs, who won the Central with just 85 wins.

Second, the Dodgers are slowly getting healthy. Rafael Furcal and Casey Blake have each returned, and Vicente Padilla, Marcus Thames, and Juan Uribe all should be back within the next week. Those three might not be the most appealing names, I grant, but the more we have of them, the less we need to suffer through names like Lance Cormier, Juan Castro, and Russ Mitchell. Plus, as Jon Weisman points out at Dodger Thoughts, the bullpen vacuum has led to some unexpected contributions from younger members of the system. If this team ever gets to full strength, it’s not too hard to see them playing better than they have been.

In addition, I think the numbers Verducci uses are just a bit skewed. Sure, it sounds bad to say that 96 percent of the teams who were down and out at the end of May never made it back – but how many of those were never expected to do anything in the first place? Just to pick out a random example, it’s hardly relevant here that the 2009 Nationals, who were 15 games out and 18 games under at the end of May, finished 59-103. This Dodger team isn’t necessarily a good one, but they still have hope at this point, and so many of those other clubs never did.

For a team that’s faced all sorts of adversity this year, having the historical odds stacked against them like this seems like just another hurdle among many. And to be honest, I don’t think they’ll do it, and I do think we’ll be sitting here in July pointing to this post as we pull out our hair watching young players get traded for mediocre veterans in a futile attempt to remain relevant. But history aside, it’s not over quite yet – and it’s too soon to act as though it is.

0 comments

Trackbacks

  1. an effective post. thankfully, article marketing service…

    proprietors are experts in their fields and can direct business owners to experienced blog post writers for hire. although this may cost a bit more than hiring a writer directly, business owners can rest assured that the individual responsible for crea…

  2. writing a post is that the important…

    information is covered first.some readers might not want to read till the end if useless information is shared in the beginning. there should not be fancy words used instead the post should be in a simple, easy to understand language.one thing…

  3. professional bid writers to produce and write…

    many of if not all of their tender documents. if you hire the very best bid writer to complete and submit your pqqs and bids then there is absolutely no reason at all why your tenders should not be much more…

  4. could use would be to find an…

    expert in your topic and interview them. put this interview on your blog and make sure to use social media to spread the word about your new post. surely your target audience will appreciate a well written blog post with interviews…

  5. franchise says:

    truth has no interest in your site…

    or products.when trying to write a controversial post, it’s important to make sure you don’t write a post that can bring about negative traffic, but rather use your controversial post to try to get quality traffic.to see a great example of…

  6. franchising says:

    write the posts for you. you can…

    adjust many of these to search for content at certain intervals (days or weeks) to look for specific keywords for your blog. by doing this you are sure to pull in content that is fresh and also relevant to your page….

  7. website says:

    in mind which most popular blogs always…

    tend to do is to present a layout or format that is reader friendly! using subtitles, bullet points or even numbering any points you are making makes your post easier to scan and refer back to for visitors! also try to…

  8. to loads of blogs then doing nothing…

    again, you will get some visitors from your posts but then your name and post will disappear into the archives.however if there were a few sites that you constantly wrote for, your name will become recognizable, and if readers of your…

  9. more creative way. you will realize that…

    more people are attracted to such graphics and hence keep coming back to your blogs.write the right wayfinally, a lot depends on how you write your blog. flawless language with correct grammar and no spelling mistakes are a pre-requisite. a dash…

  10. in moderation as frames might affect the…

    professionalism of the blog. all these are very important tips for blogging. create a blog and really get your message out there to around 2 billion people who now use the internet worldwide. in this article we’ll look at the ways…

  11. and use images at the start of…

    the post. if you want people to read your blog posts, write naturally and don’t obsess over keyword density. use short sentences and subheadings to keep your text scannable. write compelling titles that accurately reflect what you discuss in your arti…

  12. in simple language and is easy to…

    understand so that it keeps the reader interested in reading the whole post.to write a good blog post you just follow a disciplined step by step procedure. a good post is just a reflection of how creative a writer can be…

  13. click here says:

    try to find blogs that allow you…

    to place dofollow links and also have higher page rank. by higher pagerank, i am talking anything more than page rank two.the guideline is that you simply should only contribute comments whenever your response is really informative. 90% of blogs utiliz…

  14. to make a great blog that people…

    can see is about you. add a profile picture to your blog and make it look better in the process. no matter how good your website/blog looks no-one’s gonna stay on the page for long or come back if the content…

  15. website you are using to blog on…

    it should have a spell check button on the top bar, on blogger and word press there is a spell-check button at the top of every page you edit. after you have finished writing spell check and proof read all of…

  16. a sustainable career. you can replicate this…

    same process. the starting point and ending point will differ depending upon your unique circumstances. but the fact is, that by practicing your craft on a daily basis and pouring your passion into your writing, whether it is article marketing or…

  17. doorbell says:

    comes to advertising, marketing, and the constant…

    pursuit of fresh content. you can find these online jobs posted through freelance websites and craigslist. take a look at these examples of ways to make money and see which ones match your skills and interests.email marketingonline marketers need help …

  18. email theme. if directed to a page,…

    the page should include a share and like buttons for your social media pages. if directed to a social media page, the page should include links to a web site page. both pages should include additional calls-to-action and a secondary step…

  19. that they want to read. this is…

    an obvious thing to do. however, few people actually post content related to their niche. if you want to get results from your blog posts, i suggest that you conduct some simple research that will guarantee targeted visitors. find out what…

  20. quality content and selling it is a…

    great way to earn cash from your blogs. choose something that you have personal experience in and produce some quality articles to sell to clients. if you do good work, it could grow into a profitable business. use your blog as…

  21. areas is something you can learn –…

    that’s the “science.” by also honing your skills in areas specific to the “art” of grant writing, you can greatly increase your odds of winning a grant.common areas (the science): technical writers and grant writers must thoroughly understand the …

  22. create articles with great content growing your…

    list of leads and subscribersif you are good at writing articles you will be able to draw the reader in. the ultimate goal is to get them to trust you, like what you have to say and ultimately buy from you.for…

  23. if you feel others may read it….

    you may wish to write at work on your lunch if you are unable to write undisturbed at home. again, the most important thing to remember is that this is for you only.two -start to write for at least ten minutes…

  24. story.be anecdotalyou can also tell a story…

    based on second-hand accounts or hearsay so to speak. story telling has been a way to communicate since the beginning of time. everyone can relate to a good story, you can even use your own insight and retell a story by…

  25. assigning different ranks to people who post…

    above a certain number of posts can encourage people to try to reach the next level. on my bearded dragon forum we go from egg, through hatching to adult – obviously not appropriate to many forums, but you get the idea.i…

  26. Click Here says:

    job you want done.you can forget the…

    seo arguments about blogging services and programs. google and other search engines make no distinction between them. all search engines are interested in is your content. if you are producing good, relevant content, then it makes no, real difference a…

  27. followed.writer who understands these aspects appropriately will…

    always have the first chance of getting their articles approved.choosing a nichewhile a writer can write on a wide variety of subjects and topics, there will always be a specialty field for such writer like choosing a niche. such niche would…

  28. here says:

    the opening lines of the article. you…

    can be the best judge of the sample articles you receive. if these sample articles are able to grab your attention and convince you to read more, then you must go onto hire that content developing company to write articles for…

  29. from people who are real customers seem…

    to be the perfect thing that fits the bill.this innovative method of internet advertising is catching on to people like wildfire. this is because it is cheap, extremely effective and creates an honest impression among people. like other forms of advert…

  30. tablet says:

    into one post. your window of opportunity…

    is often narrow – people have short attentions spans – so keep your blog content to the point. and make it a good point.• make it easy to share. people will hit the ‘share’ button without a moments hesitation if it…

  31. however numerous sites get away with.org and.net….

    the extension is important, however not as much as the keyword based domain.once the domain is setup and hosted, you can and should install wordpress. be aware of which wordpress you use, one is self hosted while the other is hosted…

  32. Titanic says:

    online: it is always necessary to keep…

    up a good relation with your customers. this can be done by staying in touch with them consistently. this can be Titanic done with a blog. through your blogging you can keep your customers updated about all news on the products and…

  33. striving to get customers at all times,…

    and making your customers happy with what you are offering. having a business means the need for a good marketing strategy to spread awareness and generate sales. the online market is a great place where you can build your brand and…

  34. different in your writing.layoutalways remember that when…

    you copy and paste from other sources, the post loses its originality and gets boring for the readers. hence, you should avoid plagiarism at all times.a special attention Titanic should be paid to the layouts of the posts while writing; long paragraphs…

  35. my heart’s content gone forever? the answer…

    is no! you can start from where you stopped in your career as a content writer. you can even use the insights you gained through these personal crises to enhance your content writing and copy writing skills. for that what you…

  36. writing blogs* irresistible title * opening line…

    that speaks directly to the reader * catchy image that creates curiosity * easy to find bullet points * cite surprising statistics * easily scannable * show personality * link it up * edit and trim your posts * no-brainer call…

  37. tech-house says:

    becoming boring.there are many things that go…

    into a great blog. one of the most important features that a great blog has, is that it is genuinely useful to the readers of your blog. if people find your blog informative, fun and entertaining, then you will have no…

  38. read and thus, the perfect choice for…

    your blog.some examples of ‘sans serif’ fonts:arial, helvetica:arial black, gadget:impact, charcoal:ms sans serif, geneva:ms serif, new york:trebuchet ms, helveticaverdana, geneva:lucida sans unicode, lucida grandetahoma, geneva:fantasy or cursivethe…

  39. a thousand words.be informativea little bit different…

    than a tutorial, the informative style teaches your audience about a specific subject. it doesn’t necessarily have to be how-to but more of what is…? you can make this in a definition type of style and just lay out the facts…

  40. adding in your own personal opinions.use humorthis…

    is where you can really let loose. everyone loves to hear about a funny story and if you can make your readers laugh they will be your friend forever. irony and mild sarcasm are always well received; however, you still want…

  41. pet website says:

    way through; else your uneducated comment will…

    stick out like a sore thumb. if you are trying to build up a reputation in your industry or niche, then one silly and uninformed comment could be costly, so always take the time to read the blog before leaving a…

  42. people make with blogging is blogging when…

    they have nothing useful to say. if you are doing this then you are going to have a hard time making fans who are interested in your blog. your posts should be relevant to the selected category, informative, and well-written. blog…

  43. Airsoft says:

    Evike.com…

    Need to top up on your Airsoft ammunition? Visit Evike.com, the best online store for all things Airsoft. Discover us today….