How Much Does Andre Ethier Have Riding On This Season?

At the LA Times Dodger blog today, Steve Dilbeck argues that the Dodgers need to lock up Andre Ethier to a long-term contract, suggesting that his value is at its lowest and that an offense which is hardly imposing can’t afford to be without him after 2012. There’s logic to the premise, of course, and I’m on record as saying that I think all of the pieces are in place for Ethier to have a big season. But you already know my response to that idea, which is that signing Clayton Kershaw is a much higher priority and that a moody platoon player who is a good-yet-not-elite hitter isn’t necessarily someone I would want to invest big money into as he enters his 30s. (That’s if Ethier would even want to stay, and there’s more than a few hints that suggest he may not, or if he’d even be willing to sign now when he knows his leverage is low.)

That’s not what I want to talk about, though, because you how I feel and I know that many of you feel similarly. What interests me more right now is trying to figure out just how much a big 2012 could enhance Ethier’s value on the market, because there’s a big difference between a deal for, say, 3/$36m (which I’d certainly love to do) and something more like 5/$85m (which I’d run away screaming from).

Over the last four offseasons, only eight outfielders have signed with a new team for at least three years, and they’re not all great comparables for Ethier for a variety of reasons. Somehow I doubt he’s matching the 7/$142m Carl Crawford got from the Red Sox or the $126m that Jayson Werth picked up from the Nationals; at the other end of the spectrum, the paltry (by comparison) $21m that Josh Willingham took from the Twins this winter and the $15m over three years that Marlon Byrd received from the Cubs aren’t even worth discussing. It’s also hard to include the 3/$31.5m that Raul Ibanez received when he went to the Phillies, because it was covering his age 37-39 seasons. And because Ruben Amaro hands out money like Ned Colletti hands out backloaded two-year contracts to veteran infielders.

Now we’re left with just three somewhat similar yet still imperfect comparisons. I’m tossing out Michael Cuddyer‘s 3/$31.5m from Colorado, because he’s already 33, and let’s face it, Ethier’s not signing for that unless 2012 is a disaster. We’re also not looking at Milton Bradley‘s 3/$30m, because his market was so skewed by his personal and injury histories, and again, Ethier’s not signing for that.

That leaves us with one last comparable, and this one’s actually worth investigating: the 4/$66m contract Jason Bay signed with the Mets before the 2010 season. Bay entered free agency for the first time having just completed his age-30 season, just as Ethier will, and he did so with a bang, hitting .267/.384/.537 and 36 homers for a playoff Boston team. Like Ethier, Bay graded as mediocre or worse in most defensive metrics, and he took a 131 career OPS+ into free agency, which is almost exactly what Ethier put up between 2008-2010. While Ethier can look forward to having only Josh Hamilton as power-hitting outfielder competition in next winter’s free agent group, Bay scored his deal in a similar environment, with Holliday being the only other outfielder to top Byrd’s $15m deal.

The big difference is that Bay was coming off one of his best years, setting career highs in homers & RBI and finishing seventh in the AL MVP voting, and had put together a string of good years around a disappointing 2007. Let’s say Ethier, no longer bothered by the knee injury that sabotaged his 2011, can put up a year that is the average of his 2008-10 campaigns. That’d be a season that looks like .289/.366/.504, with 25 homers and 88 RBI, and if he can do that or more, he’d have a pretty good chance to match Bay’s contract. Let’s be honest, though; we saw how ridiculous this winter was as far as free agency costs, even without four of the traditional big market teams (Red Sox, Yankees, Dodgers, and Mets) in the game. Considering the lack of power available next year, and figuring that neither the Red Sox or Yankees have long-term solutions in right field, Ethier – if he has the 2012 I think he might – could potentially talk his way into more of a 5/$80m type of contract.

That’s where things get tough, because we don’t yet know who will be the owner of the Dodgers at that point or how Ethier’s relationship with the club might be if he hasn’t signed. (I’m assuming there’s less than a 1% chance he signs before the season, because of the current financial state and because we’ve heard little about any talks; these type of deals rarely happen in-season.) That’s an awful lot of money to commit to a guy who can’t hit lefties, isn’t a great defender, and is heading into his 30s; on the other hand, he’s one of the more popular Dodgers and if he leaves, you have to replace that offense somewhere.

To be honest, the cleanest solution might be for him to have a great season but for Ned Colletti’s patchwork collection of misfit veterans to fall apart, leaving Ethier as a very valuable trade chip at the July deadline. If he can be used to get a nearly-ready top third base prospect plus some other parts, that’d be hard to pass up.

Of course, this all depends on Ethier having a bounceback season. If he doesn’t, then maybe his price drops to where it’s palatable to keep him – but if he’s coming off two disappointing years in a row, how much do you want him? I’m not sure it’s an overstatement to say that Ethier could have something like $40m or more riding on 2012. It’s a big season for the Dodgers. It could be an even bigger one for Andre Ethier.

0 comments

Trackbacks

  1. [...] that the sentimental part wants Ethier around forever. Mike Scioscia’s Tragic Illness sets the spectrum of desirable-to-freaky: What interests me more right now is trying to figure out just how much a big 2012 could enhance [...]

  2. [...] Yet for all his shortcomings, everything is perfectly primed for Ethier to have a really, really big year. He’s finally healthy heading into 2012, and if you don’t think that matters, just check his pre- and post-injury stats from the last two years. He’s also in his final year before free agency, and he’s made his displeasure at not having been signed to an extension clear. Whether it’s to impress new ownership or potential suitors on the market, Ethier has a chip on his shoulder and plenty to prove in 2012. A healthy, motivated Andre Ethier is exactly the kind of Ethier that could put up a huge season… before convincing someone to wildly overpay him. [...]

  3. [...] Mike Scioscia’s Tragic Illness says Andre Ethier has a lot riding on this season. [...]

  4. Gold Shoes says:

    Cheapest Kasper Suits…

    [...]what follows are a handful of hyper-links to web sites that we connect to since we believe they really are worthwhile browsing[...]…

  5. Spring Shoes says:

    dancing with the stars results…

    [...]the following are some web page links to websites I always link to seeing that we believe these are seriously worth visiting[...]…

  6. Great Clips Printable Coupons…

    [...]the following are a handful of web links to internet websites which we connect to as we feel they are really worth checking out[...]…

  7. Great Clips Coupons…

    [...]listed below are a handful of url links to places that we connect to seeing as we think they will be definitely worth visiting[...]…

  8. Great Clips Printable Coupons…

    [...]below are some url links to web pages which we connect to since we believe they are well worth checking out[...]…

  9. Haircut Coupons…

    [...]what follows are a few hyper-links to websites online that we connect to since we feel they really are worth visiting[...]…

  10. Great Clips Coupons…

    [...]here are a handful of web links to online websites that we link to since we feel they will be truly worth visiting[...]…

  11. women says:

    Nice…

    Nice post. I was checking continuously this blog and I’m impressed! Very useful info particularly the last part :) I care for such information much. I was looking for this particular info for a very long time. Thank you and best of luck….

  12. cabin in the woods…

    [...]these are a handful of hyper-links to internet websites I always link to as we feel they’re really worth visiting[...]…

  13. woman says:

    Awesome…

    It is appropriate time to make some plans for the future and it’s time to be happy. I’ve read this post and if I could I desire to suggest you some interesting things or suggestions. Perhaps you could write next articles referring to this article. I …

  14. Zimmerman…

    [...]right here are a few links to web pages which we connect to for the fact we feel they really are worth visiting[...]…

  15. andy says:

    Awesome…

    It’s the best time to make some plans for the future and it is time to be happy. I’ve read this post and if I could I desire to suggest you few interesting things or suggestions. Perhaps you could write next articles referring to this article. I wish…

  16. Lookity says:

    ann romney…

    [...]in the following are some links to web sites that we connect to for the fact we believe they’re worthy of browsing[...]…

  17. home projector…

    [...]one of our visitors recently proposed the following website[...]…

  18. free porn says:

    free porn…

    [...]The info talked about within the write-up are a few of the very best out there [...]…

  19. Sydney escort…

    [...]we prefer to honor lots of other online internet sites on the web, even when they aren?t linked to us, by linking to them. Beneath are some webpages worth checking out[...]…

  20. Google says:

    Google…

    [...]that is the finish of this report. Here you?ll find some web-sites that we assume you?ll value, just click the hyperlinks over[...]…

  21. Google says:

    Google…

    [...]here are some hyperlinks to internet sites that we link to simply because we assume they’re worth visiting[...]…

  22. best dating says:

    Recent Blogroll Additions……

    [...]usually posts some very interesting stuff like this. If you’re new to this site[...]……

  23. free gay adult videos…

    [...]Sites of interest we have a link to[...]…

  24. handbags says:

    handbags…

    [...]the time to read or check out the material or web sites we have linked to below the[...]…

  25. Photoshop tricks…

    [...]that is the finish of this write-up. Right here you�ll obtain some web sites that we consider you�ll enjoy, just click the hyperlinks over[...]…

  26. Free adult porn videos here. Visit now….

    [...]please go to the websites we follow, including this a single, as it represents our picks from the web[...]…

  27. never reach the height and stature which…

    you are dreaming. you as the owner of the business must hire content writers that will add value to your business and will take your site to a new dimension. there are many companies offering proficient and affordable content writing services….

  28. See beautiful girls in nice position on xxx tube….

    [...]just beneath, are a lot of totally not associated web sites to ours, on the other hand, they’re certainly really worth going over[...]…

  29. Clippers…

    [...]in the following are a handful of links to online websites I always link to seeing as we believe they are well worth visiting[...]…

  30. good article says:

    a blog which is very effective.a blog…

    very much indicates the quality with which your business is run. mostly, the blog’s design determines its value and success. if you make a blog which is not attractive to the visitors, then there are very less chances for the site…

  31. francise says:

    viewer looking for relevant contents to the…

    site; • articles on the web can prove that they are the authorities on the subject and people interested in the subject will come back again and again to the site; • it will help the customers if the contents are…

  32. theme for under $50 dollars, and have…

    a fully functioning, high ranking rich resource in your niche that allows your community to create content, ask and answer questions and provide real value to the “search” marketplace that is appreciated by both your readership, and the search engine…

  33. material must also have such knowledge, as…

    many magazines and books are sold online and the use of keywords will lead readers to places where they can purchase the printed versions. seo content writing does not need to be difficult or complicated because the truth is that it’s…

  34. bad credit mobile phones…

    [...]below you will locate the link to some websites that we assume you must visit[...]…

  35. Anonymous says:

    [...]very few internet sites that come about to be in depth below, from our point of view are undoubtedly nicely worth checking out[...]…

  36. san diego web design…

    [...]here are some hyperlinks to web pages that we link to since we assume they may be really worth visiting[...]…

  37. some bloggers can do very well with…

    pay-per-click but others may not do as well. there are several things that will determine how much money you can make with this method but it’s something that you can try to see how it goes for you. it could be…

  38. Site says:

    story telling has been a way to…

    communicate since the beginning of time. everyone can relate to a good story, you can even use your own insight and retell a story by adding in your own personal opinions.use humorthis is where you can really let loose. everyone loves…

  39. easy language.2. write about problems and solutions…

    - everyone, when faced by problems look on the internet for an answer. so, you can select problems connected to your niches and if your reader finds the solution of their problems then he will believe you to be an expert…

  40. people want to do something but they…

    are scared of it they will actually seek out distractions to avoid the pain of fear. but at the end of the day the fear of doing will be replaced with the feelings of failure and disappointment that you have not…

  41. click here says:

    vital to check how it all looks…

    once it has hit the www. often when you transfer content from your computer to your website, you can get formatting issues or spacing issues, so make sure you always cast a quick eye over your latest offering once it is…

  42. New York Times Bestsellers…

    [...]the time to study or stop by the subject material or websites we have linked to below the[...]…

  43. do is sit back and wait for…

    readers to come across your blog and begin reading it. people may find you blog or you can tell your friends about it. you don’t actually have to advertise it as the people who read it will be the ones that…

  44. Recommended Site…

    [...]one of our guests a short while ago advised the following website[...]…

  45. Read This says:

    Read This…

    [...]Here is a great Weblog You may Find Intriguing that we Encourage You[...]…

  46. Full Report says:

    Full Report…

    [...]Here are several of the internet sites we recommend for our visitors[...]…

  47. Read More Here…

    [...]we came across a cool website that you just could possibly love. Take a look in case you want[...]…

  48. Continued says:

    Continued…

    [...]one of our visitors recently proposed the following website[...]…

  49. Read This says:

    Read This…

    [...]Here is a superb Weblog You may Obtain Intriguing that we Encourage You[...]…

  50. Read More says:

    Read More…

    [...]Sites of interest we have a link to[...]…

  51. weight loss says:

    weight loss…

    [...]usually posts some incredibly exciting stuff like this. If you?re new to this site[...]…

  52. Google says:

    Google…

    [...]that may be the finish of this article. Here you will discover some web sites that we feel you will appreciate, just click the links over[...]…

  53. dog rescue says:

    dog rescue…

    [...]below you?ll discover the link to some web pages that we consider you should visit[...]…

  54. last minute hotels…

    [...]usually posts some incredibly intriguing stuff like this. If you are new to this site[...]…

  55. tutoriales photoshop…

    [...]Here is a superb Weblog You might Discover Exciting that we Encourage You[...]…

  56. service to write it for you if…

    you are not a skilled writer yourself.so there you go. these are four of the basic and yet very important site promotion tips that you should follow. it does take time to master all of them but believe me when i…

  57. parenting says:

    parenting…

    [...]check below, are some completely unrelated websites to ours, on the other hand, they’re most trustworthy sources that we use[...]…

  58. web-sites. in essence you are attempting to…

    create authority to your site. if people begin linking to your article or blog post what they are in effect doing is voting that your site, article or blog post relates more to a subject (keyword) that other sites, blog posts…

  59. people as you can is the name…

    of the game. to help win the game, i recommend you start networking, besides it’s a lot cheaper and effective than google adwords. guest blogging is all the rage at the moment with blogging ‘gurus’ telling you all about the great…

  60. you should have a fair idea about…

    the target group as well. then it becomes easier for you to maintain a blog.contentyou should take care to include quality content in your blog. the content you choose should be centered around your readers’ interest. your message should reach the…

  61. poststhis one can go wrong if done…

    wrong, and can be dangerous to your business if you just try to be controversial however if you genuinely disagree with some current news or trending topic you may find that your post will go viral.when writing your controversial post, it…

  62. free woodworking plans…

    [...]although internet websites we backlink to beneath are considerably not associated to ours, we feel they’re basically really worth a go by means of, so have a look[...]…

  63. free credit report…

    [...]check beneath, are some totally unrelated internet sites to ours, even so, they are most trustworthy sources that we use[...]…

  64. work at home says:

    work at home…

    [...]the time to read or check out the content or websites we have linked to beneath the[...]…

  65. make money says:

    make money…

    [...]Every when in a even though we decide on blogs that we study. Listed below would be the latest websites that we decide on [...]…

  66. there’s a cool app called note taker….

    you can actually jot down notes and store them. either way, you’ll be creating a list of topics to choose from. gives you a running start. one blog per month is all you need to get this going. then, of course,…

  67. coffee says:

    coffee…

    [...]please go to the sites we stick to, including this one, because it represents our picks from the web[...]…

  68. more info says:

    more info…

    [...]just beneath, are quite a few totally not associated web sites to ours, having said that, they are certainly really worth going over[...]…

  69. his own voice, his own opinion. thus…

    it has to be different as each writer has different views. make sure that your blog is not just informative but also entertaining.you can take little periods of intervals between writing & editing so that you don’t exert your mind too…

  70. your website?one of the main reasons to…

    create a blog or forums is to provide information to readers. sometimes these can be specific to a website you own. however for this article we are not talking about owning blogs or forums as much as posting on sites owned…

  71. seguros says:

    blogs. when you do look through other…

    blogs, it is important that you leave a comment at the bottom of the blog post that you are reading. when you leave that comment, you will also be asked for your website address and that generates traffic for your blog….

  72. here says:

    site that will command that sort of…

    entry level investment in under 72 hours. (i can do it in under a day)filed under: the business blueprintvery simply, you take the idea above, and offer back end offers, incentives, s and additional services to add profit (and user value)…

  73. writing consistently you will be amazed at…

    how many ideas you come up with. writing breeds creativity-it is a natural side effect. when you start waking up at 3 a.m. with ideas or you’re dreaming about writing, you’re on the right track. don’t stop! you now have momentum…

  74. pads says:

    on the web; • reputed companies will…

    only offer original contents and once offered and paid for the copyright is automatically transferred to the buyer website; • in case of plagiarism and copied contents, the website may be badly penalized by the search engines and may even get…

  75. PERU TRAVEL says:

    PERU TRAVEL…

    [...]Here are some of the web sites we suggest for our visitors[...]…

  76. electrical contractors…

    [...]although sites we backlink to below are considerably not connected to ours, we feel they’re really really worth a go via, so possess a look[...]…

  77. Natural Fancy Color Diamonds…

    [...]Here are a number of the internet sites we advise for our visitors[...]…

  78. MMA Fight Fans…

    [...]here are some hyperlinks to sites that we link to for the reason that we assume they may be worth visiting[...]…

  79. for and if your affiliate links or…

    banners are on your blog, they are very likely to click on them and there is the possibility that they will buy the product you are promoting.so, imaging if one of the market or product you are targeting gets 5000 searches…

  80. will not only of quality but your…

    website will also be optimized as per major search engine guidelines. a well-skilled paralegal is an excellent writer. that is the long and short of it. a paralegal cannot afford to be an average writer, or even a good writer. he…

  81. cheap hotels worldwide…

    [...]here are some links to internet sites that we link to mainly because we believe they may be really worth visiting[...]…

  82. the goings-on of your business. in order…

    to do so, you need to update the site on a regular basis (we recommend 2 to 3 times a week) and infuse it with new content as often as possible.these three writing tips, if followed consistently, can often mean the…

  83. you, it’s important to understand that becoming…

    a good blogger requires a lot of practice. you should experiment with your writing style until you get it to the point that almost anyone could understand it. most people read at an eighth grade level, so you should write simply…

  84. alternative route if at all possible. by…

    some miracle i found a d-mannose web site along with some very interesting blogs of people who use d-mannose and had complete success. i had my prescription, but i wanted to try d-mannose which is a natural sugar found in certain…

  85. high risk merchant accounts…

    [...]we came across a cool site which you may possibly enjoy. Take a search when you want[...]…

  86. china merchant account…

    [...]please visit the web pages we stick to, which includes this a single, because it represents our picks from the web[...]…

  87. friv says:

    friv…

    [...]Here are some of the sites we advocate for our visitors[...]…

  88. sex toys dildos…

    [...]we prefer to honor many other online websites on the internet, even if they aren?t linked to us, by linking to them. Beneath are some webpages worth checking out[...]…

  89. sex vibrators…

    [...]Every the moment in a even though we pick blogs that we read. Listed beneath are the most current web sites that we pick [...]…

  90. free sex toys…

    [...]Sites of interest we have a link to[...]…

  91. facebook says:

    facebook…

    [...]here are some hyperlinks to web pages that we link to for the reason that we think they are worth visiting[...]…

  92. Witty Humor says:

    Witty Humor…

    [...]Sites of interest we have a link to[...]…

  93. tatuaggi says:

    tatuaggi…

    [...]that would be the finish of this report. Right here you will find some websites that we think you?ll appreciate, just click the hyperlinks over[...]…

  94. tatuaggi fate…

    [...]usually posts some very fascinating stuff like this. If you are new to this site[...]…

  95. tatuaggio caviglia…

    [...]one of our guests just lately advised the following website[...]…

  96. tatuaggio says:

    tatuaggio…

    [...]Sites of interest we have a link to[...]…

  97. tatuaggio piede…

    [...]we prefer to honor lots of other internet sites around the net, even when they aren?t linked to us, by linking to them. Beneath are some webpages really worth checking out[...]…

  98. Coach Bags Outlet…

    [...]below you will locate the link to some internet sites that we think you ought to visit[...]…

  99. low vitamin d symptoms…

    Fantastic beat ! I would like to apprentice while you amend your site, how can i subscribe for a blog website? The account helped me a applicable deal. I were tiny bit acquainted of this your broadcast provided brilliant transparent concept…

  100. Discover More…

    [...]the time to read or take a look at the material or internet sites we’ve linked to below the[...]…

  101. Find Out More…

    [...]The information and facts mentioned in the report are a few of the most beneficial readily available [...]…

  102. Find Out More…

    [...]please stop by the websites we comply with, which includes this a single, because it represents our picks through the web[...]…

  103. Discover More Here…

    [...]here are some hyperlinks to sites that we link to due to the fact we believe they are worth visiting[...]…

  104. Flowers shop in Israel…

    [...]Wonderful story, reckoned we could combine a handful of unrelated information, nevertheless definitely really worth taking a search, whoa did 1 discover about Mid East has got more problerms also [...]…

  105. of 2 years…not to have it become…

    obsolete.for example: cooking, recipe, parenting and baby, frugal and organic living, and crafting will always be in high demand. however, hunting knives or a fishing may or may not be in high demand. just so you get the idea here. don’t…

  106. cat house says:

    cat house…

    [...]The data mentioned within the post are a few of the ideal obtainable [...]…

  107. mujeres says:

    Web Blog Link…

    [...]Outstanding story, chose to link upon it well done[...]…

  108. cheap car insurance in Florida…

    [...]check below, are some entirely unrelated internet websites to ours, nonetheless, they are most trustworthy sources that we use[...]…

  109. Mississauga Physiotherapy…

    [...]although websites we backlink to beneath are considerably not associated to ours, we feel they’re truly really worth a go by way of, so possess a look[...]…

  110. Kevin Envoy says:

    a great way to remain in touch…

    with the reader. as an effective blog writer you could make around $3 per article, but they just take about 5 to 10 minutes to write.google is searching for longer articles of 500 words or longer. due to the fact many…

  111. is not needed. it is a personal…

    choice. next add images, or videos.once you are happy with your post hit the publish post button. this will let your traffic read your post, and they decide if you have in fact written a good blog post. if it is…

  112. tatuaggi says:

    tatuaggi…

    [...]the time to study or check out the content or sites we’ve linked to below the[...]…

  113. it moved slowly along. each frame makes…

    the viewer see the whole differently, by focusing intensely on the details within that frame – helping us to see as an artist sees. this is what a great novelist does in exploring the psyche of one character who touches the…

  114. Going Here…

    [...]we came across a cool site that you just may possibly get pleasure from. Take a search if you want[...]…

  115. Joey C says:

    just get involved in the online community….

    once the membership gets used to seeing your name and trusts your comments, then you will be free to discuss what you do for a living.then you can talk about your photography work and your website. this will result in curious…

  116. Airsoft says:

    Evike.com…

    Here you can find all of our Airsoft guns, Airsoft Rifles and Airsoft weapons at Evike.com. Amazing prices guaranteed!…

  117. [...] Feb. 15, 2012: What interests me more right now is trying to figure out just how much a big 2012 could enhance [...]

  118. [...] I probably should have just stated my initial opinion and been done with it, because back in February of 2012, I actually had nailed the terms he’d eventually get. At the time, the thought of such a deal [...]