What Have We Learned So Far From Spring Training?

A month into spring training and less than two weeks before Opening Day, what have we learned so far about the 2012 Dodgers? Not a whole lot, you could argue. We spent all winter talking about how locked-down the first 23 spots on the Opening Day roster seemed to be, and for the most part, that hasn’t changed a bit over the last few weeks. Jerry Sands hasn’t done much to earn the final spot on the roster, opening himself up to some real competition from Justin Sellers and Josh Fields, and while that may lead to a depressingly weak bench, it may be for the best given Jerry Hairston‘s defensive troubles and Don Mattingly’s insistence on letting James Loney & Andre Ethier get another chance against lefty pitching.

On the pitching side, the rotation remains set while Blake Hawksworth won’t be ready in the bullpen, and so the final spot will come down to Josh Lindblom battling NRIs like Jamey Wright & John Grabow, just like we expected weeks ago. (It won’t be Ramon Troncoso, of course.) Wright and Grabow each have the ability to opt out of their contracts on Sunday, which would then give the Dodgers until March 30th to decide to add them to the roster. If they don’t, they’re free agents. Expect at least one to be out of the organization in a week.

But we knew all that. What else has spring training taught us?

Well, we know that Juan Uribe isn’t worried. But he really, really should be. You know how little importance I place on spring training numbers, and so that’s why you won’t hear me making a peep about the fact that Matt Kemp has only a .297 OBP in Arizona, because, you know, spring. (It works both ways, too. I’ve been saying for months that Ethier’s going to have a great 2012. Is he going to hit .440/.483/1.080 all year? Uh, probably not.) But that’s not an absolute, and when you have a highly-paid veteran coming off a massive bust of a debut, in which injuries played a part and conditioning was called into question, you’d like to see something to give you some hope that he’ll rebound this year.

Heading into the last week of March, Uribe has managed just five singles. It’s hardly cause for optimism, though he’s doing his best to Allen Iverson the situation away by saying the games don’t count:

“I’m not worried because this is practice,” Uribe said, smiling and as carefree as ever. “I want to make sure I’m healthy, that I’m having good at-bats. It doesn’t matter if I get hits. This is to prepare for the regular season.”

Uribe said he was pleased with the results of the surgery he underwent in the fall for the sports hernia that prematurely ended the first season of his three-year, $21-million contract.

“You really don’t know how you feel until you start playing,” he said.

Feel the enthusiasm, don’t you? Uribe’s going to get his chances simply because of his contract, but I’m having a hard time envisioning him being the starting third baseman all year. Unfortunately, the options behind him are slim. Adam Kennedy is hardly a viable option, Hairston is useful mostly for his versatility, and Sellers is much more valuable up the middle than he’s going to be at third base. Spring sensation Fields could get a look, but despite his 23 homer 2007, his fielding and subsequent hitting have been so poor that he’s been worth all of -0.1 fWAR for his career.

It’s an ugly situation at third base, and Uribe is doing nothing to make us feel any better about it. But hey, if not David Wright, Mark Reynolds seems to be available. So there’s that.

******

Still holding out hope that Frank McCourt won’t hang onto the parking lots? You’re not alone, according to Mike Ozanian of Forbes

The five remaining groups bidding for Major League Baseball’s Los Angeles Dodgers want the roughly 130 acres of land Dodger Stadium’s parking lots sit on to be included with their current offers for the team. The current bids for the Dodgers range from $1.3 billion to $1.6 billion.

According to a high-ranking baseball executive familiar with the bids who spoke on the condition of anonymity, the potential owners do not simply want the right to lease the parking lots at Dodger Stadium from team owner Frank McCourt, they want outright ownership of the land.

No surprise there, of course. Why wouldn’t the incoming owner want to own the land his new toy sits on and ensure that he doesn’t have to deal with the soulless McCourt? By all indications, McCourt doesn’t want to give the lots up; on the other hand, it’s not that difficult to see him acting that way simply to drive up the purchase price, because that’s exactly the sort of thing he does.

******

Ken Rosenthal doesn’t think that Clayton Kershaw is going to repeat as NL Cy Young or that Matt Kemp will take the MVP that so many of us thought he should have won last season, but that doesn’t mean that he doesn’t expect any awards to come home to Los Angeles…

NL Manager: Don Mattingly, Dodgers

Several NL executives view the Dodgers as a darkhorse in the West, and not simply because they boast one of the league’s best hitters, Kemp, and pitchers, Kershaw — or because they’re about to be sold.

Mattingly, managing for the first time, held the Dodgers together through a rocky first half last season, then guided them to an 82-79 finish. His challenge this season is to get the most out of right fielder Andre Ethier and first baseman James Loney in their respective free-agent years.

With a little help at the trade deadline, the Dodgers could return to prominence sooner than expected, elevating Mattingly’s profile.

I felt Mattingly really did an excellent job in his first season, as we discussed near the end of last year, and so it’s not hard to see this scenario at all. On the other hand, the Manager of the Year award is kind of a crock, because it almost always goes to the manager of a playoff team, thus largely making it the “Talented Roster of the Year” award. Yahoo’s Tim Brown chimes in with some Mattingly praise as well.

******

I’m headed off to spring training this weekend (that’s Florida, not Arizona, though) and so expect a quiet few days around here. (Which, based on my history of being gone when big things happen, will almost certainly guarantee that McCourt is going to agree to sell the club to Lindsay Lohan at some point in the next three days.)

That said, the new site is coming along wonderfully and I still plan to launch it in the days leading up to Opening Day. I’m pretty excited about it, and I hope you will be too. Just for kicks, here’s a sneak peek…

…and much more to come. (This would be a hell of a lot easier if we could all just agree to never, ever use Internet Explorer again, by the way.) While I iron out the last few items, I would like to make sure that I’m building this in the most effective way for your usage, and so I’d love to see some discussion on these two items. First, a survey on how you find new MSTI content…

[polldaddy poll=6070039]

Second, I’m going back and forth on the commenting system. Many of you like the default WordPress system for its simplicity, while many of you hate it for exactly that same reason. I’m looking into using a third-party system (not Disqus) that would allow for real-time commenting and the ability to sign in via social networks, as well as more easily reply to other comments in the thread. What say you?

46 comments
Dan verde
Dan verde

Hi on the comment systems I think you should talk 2 Robert timm from dodgerdugout . The shoutbox on that site is great it allows us to have realtime conversations . IMO that's the best part of that site . Interacting with other dodger fans in realtime is awesome , it alOws us fans to have conversation reather then responding to post . Just my two cents

mksonic
mksonic

Aye, one of the strengths of MSTI -- outside of the top-notch writing, and commentary, of course -- is the simple interface. Whatever you do, keep it simple. (And no f-book -- we hates f-book.)

Shmolnick
Shmolnick

I like the comment system the way it is. And I subscribe to the "If it ain't broke, don't fix it" theory of software enhancements. Also, Facebook's increasing reach into our online lives is worrisome and I would definitely be in favor of avoiding it completely when commenting on this site.

Wil
Wil

I like the way it's setup now, except for the fact that you can't add breaks between paragraphs. Besides that, there's nothing I've ever tried to do on these comments that I haven't been able to. BTW, does the new site have a space for the tracker of McCourt Sins, Days to DFA GA & other crazy stuff?

PF Flyers
PF Flyers

I like the way you do your comments now. I would not comment if i had to sign in to facebook or twitter to do so. (I am a bit of a closet dodger fan here in Northern Arizona, I also coach High school Track during baseball season) speaking of AZ Baseball, Mark Renyolds was part of that Diamondbacks team that set a new team strikeout record 2 or 3 years ago. what about the idea of Alberto Cayaspo (sp?) or Mark Trumbo for a Dodgers infield (i do think Ned is capable of acquiring Bobby Abraeu, but that I don't like that idea, and Jerry Dipoto would take brain dead Ned to the cleaners in any deal between our teams, but I'm a dreamer, Trumbo would look mighty good in Dodger Blue.

DodgersKingsoftheGalaxy
DodgersKingsoftheGalaxy

Have i told everyone they need to read "Veeck as in Wreck" on here before? Well if i didn't there ya go....

Bip
Bip

I'm a 22 year old male who is into computer programming. My opinion of this comment section, and everything else really, is features >>>>>>>>>>>>> everything.

Ned Colletti
Ned Colletti

As good as Uribe has been in the past I am starting to think Mark Reynolds would be nice in the batting order.

Justin Drummond
Justin Drummond

Just based on the small preview you provided I am disappointed to see that you have not chosen to use a lime green, italicized font over a background of Rod Barajas rocking Dee Gordon like a baby animated GIFs for the new site.

Jon#7#22
Jon#7#22

I actually prefer the simplicity of this commenting system really. I just check in and respond as needed so live stuff doesn't appeal to me, but will visit the site however it is set up. Not a fan of Mark Reynolds. worth 5.9 r-WAR over 5 seasons. I think what you gain in HR you lose in terrible defense in comparison to Uribe, so at best it's a wash. If Uribe hits .230/.298/.400 I'd be happy as his defense would probably make him a 1.5 - 2 WAR guy and at least good for now until someone better comes along or make a better trade in season??

Joseph
Joseph

Mike, what would your opinion of Mark Reynolds be? You can't deny the guy can hit some bombs and while his average is beyond terrible, his OBP is only a little below average if not right at average. Do you think the Dodgers should pursue him as a replacement for Uribe?

Jeff M.
Jeff M.

Since you asked . . . I don't like commenting through a social network account. Maybe something like Hardball Talk uses?

hyrax99
hyrax99

I like the idea, but whenever I pay attention to the shoutbox there generally isn't any decent realtime conversation. Generally people put a bit more thought into their comments using a system like the one in place here.

Bip
Bip

'“If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it” theory of software enhancements.' There is no such thing

Mike
Mike

That'll be an easter egg if you enter the cheat code from Contra.

GoDodgers
GoDodgers

If Uribe pans out as a 2 WAR guy, which is certainly plausible, I think we keep him. 2 WAR for $8 mil. at 3rd is great value. To put things into context, 2 WAR is what you got from, say, David Wright or Kuroda or Ethier.

Mike
Mike

I think he is a bit undervalued if only because power like that is so hard to come by. Still, his ridiculous K rate and mediocre glove pull his value down a lot. I guess what I'm saying is, would absoLUTELY take him over Uribe, but would not give up top prospects to get him.

Mike
Mike

I should have clarified that you could still be a guest on the 3rd party system. Wouldn't HAVE to use a social media login. Hardball Talk requires a login, no?

Joseph
Joseph

Agreed, I like the fact that you don't have to create an account to comment with the current setup.

Ned Colletti
Ned Colletti

I don't think a 2 year deal will really do it. He is one of the premier home run hitters in baseball. People talk about his defense, but defense doesn't win games, offense does, that's what I look for in players.

Greg (@greghao)
Greg (@greghao)

The hell with that, the Dodgers have new sugar daddies coming in. 7 year deal!!!

Solis
Solis

UP - UP - DOWN - DOWN - LEFT - RIGHT - LEFT - RIGHT - (B) - (A) - (START)

Taylor Maricle
Taylor Maricle

Ethier and Kuroda are more like 3-4 win players, and Andre i think hit 4.4 once (too lazy to check). 2 WAR is like James Loney.

Joseph
Joseph

I think I would agree with that. Especially since I don't think Reynolds glove would be THAT much of a downgrade compared to Uribe's.

Greg (@greghao)
Greg (@greghao)

Oh, whatever option you do choose, let's try to have a good notification system. The WP RSS feed for comment seems to be on some kind of delay. I usually get a whole jumble of comments all at once at random times throughout the day.

Greg (@greghao)
Greg (@greghao)

I use a combination of ghostery and disconnect, since I don't need Facebook to know that I'm surfing for pr0n (in addition to baseball), so that particular social network plugin don't work for me. And since Mike shat all over disqus, as long as it's not a fb social plugin, I don't have much of an opinion. . Other than WP's commenting pretty much blows since it doesn't even support carriage return.

Dave Pomerantz
Dave Pomerantz

You know how sometimes you'll hear about a great player making very difficult things look easy? Jeter and Reynolds are the opposite - they make routine things look incredibly difficult.

GoDodgers
GoDodgers

That's the problem with guys like Reynolds or Jeter, though. They look good enough on the balls they do get to, that they fool you into thinking that they are competent fielders.

badger3
badger3

Still trying to get a handle on which of many advanced stats are the more important. There are many of them. But, in looking at Reynolds, he has a 3.0 oWAR and a -2.5 dWAR. If it weren't for the fact he is only 28 years old, I would say he has DH written all over him. I watched him play in person several times here in Arizona and frankly I thought he was a good defender. I saw him make several great plays. I would have never thought, after watching him up close, that he was that bad a fielder. . One more thing...... “'I’m not worried because this is practice', Uribe said", - as a former coach, you really hate to hear crap like that. You play like you practice. I would trade Uribe for Reynolds straight up in heartbeat. But, that's just me.

GoDodgers
GoDodgers

You are right about Kuroda, but not Ethier, who's been worth a shade below 16 wins over 6 full seasons for us. Of course it's Ethier we pay $11 mil. to keep, because we must have dingers, and the more valuable Kuroda gets jerked around first then jettisoned.

Joseph
Joseph

Alright, now I get it. I still think I'd rather have Reynolds than Uribe though.

Bip
Bip

You interpreted the numbers exactly right, but that number only measures offensive contribution. I didn't post the defensive numbers, but here they are. The stat that calculated defensive value is UZR, and it's measured in runs above or below average: Juan Uribe 2011: +5.6 Mark Reynolds 2011: -28.2 The point of mentioning their wRC+ was that it shows you how bad Reynolds' defense must have been in order to cancel out that huge difference in offense. According to fangraphs, factoring in everything, Uribe was worth 0.4 WAR and Reynolds 0.3. Baseball-reference is only slightly more forgiving, with Uribe at -0.1 and Reynolds at 0.5.

Joseph
Joseph

See this is what I don't get. Based on the average ranges you just showed, Mark Reynolds is a little above average whereas Juan Uribe provided half as much value as an average player which means he was significantly less than average last year. So how do these numbers show that Reynolds was worse than Uribe?

Joseph
Joseph

I'm still not seeing that based on the numbers you posted. You wrote that Reynolds had a wRC+ of 116 and Uribe had a wRC+ of 55. Last time I checked, 116 quite a bit higher than 55.

Bip
Bip

What it's saying is that Reynolds' defense was so bad that even though he hit way better than Uribe, his defense brought town his total contribution to the same level as Uribe. One way to think of it is his defense cost his team as many runs as he created with his bat.

Bip
Bip

wRC+ weights all offensive contributions a player makes, adjusts it for run scoring environment (league, park, era) and scales it so that average is 100 and higher is better. Some help with scaling: 175+: MVP 150: great, about 10 players in the whole MLB will reach this each year 125: Decent for a first baseman, great for a middle infielder 100: Average (Loney) 75: Utility player 50: Juan Uribe last year

GoDodgers
GoDodgers

wRC+ is weighted runs created, adjusted for league and park. 100 is average. Higher number is better. For some perspective, Kemp had wRC+ of 171 last season, Loney had 109, Adam Kennedy was at 74.

GoDodgers
GoDodgers

To half that of Uribe's overall production, since it took Reynolds an entire season to equal Uribe's production over a half-season. Interestingly, there is a feature running right now on Fangraphs about Orioles' attempt to market Reynolds as a 3rd baseman. I found this little snippet to be very amusing: [Orioles' third basemen are] third basemen in the same way that Bill James once said Bobby Bonilla was a third baseman. (James wrote something to the effect that Bonilla was a third basemen in the same way he would be an astronaut if you shot him into space.)" (from an article by Matt Klaasen)

Joseph
Joseph

Explain the wRC+ stat to me. Is it saying that Reynolds defense brought his offensive contributions down to the level of uribe?

Bip
Bip

I don't know about that. Would you believe it if I told you that according to fangraphs, Reynolds' defense was so bad that he was worth the same in 155 games as Uribe was in 77? Reynolds had a wRC+ of 116 and Uribe's was 55, and yet Reynolds' defense was so bad that they totally evened out. Reynolds is regularly regarded as among the worst defenders in baseball, whereas Uribe is above average at every position left of first base.

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