Open Question: How Different Will This Roster Look?

It’s something like 98 degrees where I am right now, with humidity pushing that up to feeling around 105. With that in mind, we’re going to keep it simple and put forth a simple thought exercise: how different will the 25-man roster look like when we wake up on August 1st as compared to what it is now?

For your reference, the current roster…

C: A.J. Ellis, Matt Treanor
IF: James Loney, Mark Ellis, Elian Herrera, Luis Cruz, Jerry Hairston, Adam Kennedy, Juan Uribe
OF: Bobby Abreu, Juan Rivera, Tony Gwynn, Scott Van Slyke

SP: Clayton Kershaw, Chad Billingsley, Chris Capuano, Aaron Harang, Nathan Eovaldi
RP: Kenley Jansen, Javy Guerra, Josh Lindblom, Jamey Wright, Ronald Belisario, Scott Elbert, Shawn Tolleson

You have Matt Kemp & Andre Ethier coming back next week, barring setbacks. You’ll have Rubby De La Rosa, Matt Guerrier, Ted Lilly, Dee Gordon, & Justin Sellers all at various stages of their own comebacks. (Blake Hawksworth was shut down last week and now seems unlikely to make it back this year.) You’ll have potential trade acquisitions, the constant drumbeat to DFA Uribe and/or Loney and/or Kennedy, and the ever-present fear of additional injuries.

So how many different people will we see on the 25-man roster immediately after the trade deadline? I’m going to say seven, more than a quarter of the roster. Kemp & Ethier will be two, of course. Then I’ll say three newcomers via trade, plus at least one additional injury and/or one internal move to churn the last spot on the roster, though it’s not hard for me to see even more trades or injuries than that.

Regardless of the quantity, I think we all know moves are coming, and so the team we’re watching today is all but certain to look very different in less than a month. You tell me: how different, exactly?