Marlins @ Dodgers August 25, 2012: It’s All Happening

So here’s dedication for you; to make sure you all have a place to discuss tonight’s suddenly fascinating game, I’m posting the game thread from a buddy’s wedding. Priorities, right?

Love or hate the big trade – and there’s a ton of room on both sides of that, though the more I think about it, the less certain I am that it really should have taken all those prospects in addition to eating all that money – for tonight, just look at the lineup below and realize that it’s not James Loney playing first base, and it’s not Juan Rivera. It’s Adrian F’ing Gonzalez. Un. Bee. Lievable.

Marlins
Dodgers
CF
Hernandez
LF
Victorino
2B
Solano
2B
M.Ellis
SS
Reyes
CF
Kemp
1B
Lee
1B
Gonzalez
RF
Stanton
SS
Ramirez
LF
Ruggiano
RF
Ethier
C
Buck
3B
Cruz
3B
Murphy
C
A.Ellis
P
Johnson
P
Kershaw

 

1157 comments
Disgruntled Goat
Disgruntled Goat moderator

i had seriously convinced myself that lineups wouldn't bother my any more after we got agon. 

Tony Fernandez (MSTY Most Informative Poster)
Tony Fernandez (MSTY Most Informative Poster)

Just did some work to predict what will happen with Carl Crawford. Yes, in his past he has had a good bat. ZiPS now projects him as a .340 wOBA player which is not bad since his career wOBA is .343. What I disagree with is the ZiPS projection of his defensive runs saved at a negative value. I disagree with it because I think it is overvaluing his past 2 seasons which accumulated to about 1 season of playing time and is highly unreliable to estimate defense. 

 

Instead, what I did to predict his defense is look at other good fielders and see how their UZR/150 changed with age. I used UZR/150 to adjust for playing time. I modeled percent change and had to remove an outlier since Andruw Jones had to screw it up and go from 0.2 to 9.4 UZR/150 when he turned 34. So I used a 2nd degree polynomail regression and have a model that predicts percent change. The peak is at a little before 30 which makes sense intuitively, though I'd say that it's a little too favorable. Still, it should compensate for Crawford's 2 bad years. Using this model, Crawford should average 6.18 UZR/150, which is about half of his career average. 

 

So if Crawford averaged about 15 runs saved per season from his defense and you take away his offensive production slightly, then you'll lose about 1 win per average on season. Still, for a guy who was consistenly in the 4's and 5's in terms of WAR, having an outfielder consistently in the 3's and 4's isn't bad.

 

Or I could just be talking utter nonsense. Let's just hope he bounces back.

DBrim
DBrim moderator

Los Angeles Dodgers ‏@Dodgers

'@Dodgers lineup: Victorino LF, Punto 2B, Kemp CF, Gonzalez 1B, Ramirez SS, Ethier RF, Cruz 3B, Treanor C, Harang P

 

Second baseman bat second, guys.

 

MSTIer: Jake
MSTIer: Jake

valentine obviously doesnt care about who loney is, just bats him 5th against a lefty

Dang88
Dang88

Loney gonna Loney

MSTIer: Jake
MSTIer: Jake

BAHAHAHHAHAHAH loney hit into a double play in his first at bat

Morry
Morry

Thanks to my DVR, AGon went deep 10 times this morning

Dang88
Dang88

Woke up pinched myself and yep we still got A Gon

efb
efb

Loney starting today batting 5th for Red Sox

Disgruntled Goat
Disgruntled Goat moderator

Ok, these groceries aren't going to buy themselves (jerks), see you later. 

Batted Bob
Batted Bob

"@Dodgers: Widely regarded as the finest sportscaster of all time, Vin Scully will again call all Dodger home and road games in California and Arizona." Juan Uribe is just "widely regarded"

Disgruntled Goat
Disgruntled Goat moderator

Oh and, by the by, we got Adrian Gonzales at first base now. I'm just sayin. 

DBrim
DBrim moderator

Official!

 

Los Angeles Dodgers ‏@Dodgers

We are proud to announce Vin Scully will return to the broadcast booth for an unprecedented 64th season in 2013.

 

DBrim
DBrim moderator

Cute.

 

MLB ‏@MLB

BREAKING: @Orioles acquire LHP Joe Saunders and cash from@dbacks in exchange for RHP Matt Lindstrom and player to be named later.

 

Guitar
Guitar

watching the original Terminator... I remember when I was a small child and this first came out... It was pretty cutting edge stuff... Now I've seen (many) student films that have (much) better effects and production value.

Goooog
Goooog

First this gigantor trade happens. Any coincidence Petriello writes from a buddy's wedding... I got married last night! Now Vinny is back? Usually it's the women who dream about their wedding day all their lives, but now my fairytale is complete

Batted Bob
Batted Bob

Just woke up to the news that Vinny is coming back. It just keeps getting better.

Deuce (is loose)
Deuce (is loose)

 @DBrim  @Dodgers   Attn. Mr. Mattingly.  It is to our team's advantage to have men on base for Kemp and Gonzalez.  I know you were raised with the notion that gritty second baseman must hit second, but let me remind you that basic math says that the higher in the order you are, the more plate appearances you will get.  Your lineup suggests you would prefer Victorino and Punto to bat more often then a guy with 10 CONSECUTIVE HITS.

Disgruntled Goat
Disgruntled Goat moderator

 @JakeHorvitz still amazing to me that they are choosing to rebuild around bobby valentine rather than Agon. 

Tony Fernandez (MSTY Most Informative Poster)
Tony Fernandez (MSTY Most Informative Poster)

 @DBrim The adjusted standings are pretty interesting. The Dodgers had been pretty far back of the Giants and even the D'Backs for a while. They're now about even with the Giants. I'm guessing acquiring new talent has made that expected winning percentage climb like crazy.

DBrim
DBrim moderator

Apparently 3% from the trade itself, 7% from the win and Giants/Cards losses.

Disgruntled Goat
Disgruntled Goat moderator

 @Guitar it is very dated. i also remember thinking that T2 would NEVER not look fresh and amazing...and even it is starting to look a little rough around the edges. at the time it was the most crisp and modern looking thing that i'd ever seen. same goes with the matrix....was amazing and now it is just a little bit dated. 

Guitar
Guitar

 @Bob Meripol Don't we deserve GOOD news after all the crap that we've endured this year? Granted, it's not the Astros, but.......