Josh Beckett Went Into Colorado and Wasn’t Terrible

He wasn’t great, either, but not terrible, and offered at least a little hope for the future.

It was literally the only thing that happened in the game. Now let us never speak of it again.

365 comments
Mike Petriello
Mike Petriello moderator

1200 words on being obscenely wealthy coming... now.

Tony Fernandez (MSTY Most Informative Poster)
Tony Fernandez (MSTY Most Informative Poster)

ZiPS update wOBA:

 

Victorino .344

Mellis .323

Kemp .404

Gonzalez .349

Ramirez .336

Ethier .350

Cruz .330

Ellis .346

 

Besides the obvious issue that Ethier has better numbers here than Gonzalez, you have to wonder how the guy with the lowest wOBA bats 2nd. But even better point, ZiPS Update had Juan Rivera at .277, Juan Uribe at .253, Bobby Abreu at .310, Tony Gwynn at .258, and Dee Gordon at .269. Be glad that these people are no longer playing regularly.

I Digesti
I Digesti

He got brutally squeezed by the umpire.  I thought he was pretty sharp.

Dang88
Dang88

We have seen this transition period all too often only thing is they gotta get over this dhit quick

Gilbert_Vengeance
Gilbert_Vengeance

Just heard on the radio that Clayton Kershaw is open to a long term extension with the Dodgers... Great news.

Frank J Lapidus
Frank J Lapidus

Latest from twitter...daisuke on waivers, Olney mentions Dodgers still looking for pitching, mentions Buerhle...and some guy wonders how the Dodgers have so much money? Lol

Gilbert_Vengeance
Gilbert_Vengeance

Lol they replayed a pre-game interview with Matt Kemp on MLB Network where he talks about how fast the trade happened and that "Its gonna be real tough to beat us now." Rockies answer with "We'll just score 10 runs while shutting you guys out." I think the Dodger hitters might be looking at that line-up and thinking the runs are gonna happen and not doing everything they can possibly do to grind each at bat.... Hate the fact too that a Rockies fan posted a comment on the preview for yesterdays game talking about giving us a big Coors Field welcome (double digit runs)... i thought yeah fucking right.....yikes.

West Coast Ram
West Coast Ram

Can we go back to the lineup that looked great: Ellis, Cruz, Kemp, AGon, Hanley, Ethier, Rivera/Victorino, Ellis, pitcher.

Shmolnick
Shmolnick

Okay, so when will it be time to turn the magnifying glass on Mattingly and his coaching staff? I know, I know - it's ultimately up to the players to play, hitters to hit, and so on. But if you have a team full of guys who can hit, and you're in a pennant race entering the final month of the season, but the team is in an offensive funk, then you have no choice to look at other causes and solutions.

 

Is it the coaching of the hitters? Are they doing everything they can to get these guys back in the zone? Giving them tips? Modifying their approaches at the plate? Or are they letting all the big egos slide a bit? I don't know - nobody is asking these questions.

 

Is it Mattingly? Is he the right guy for this crew? I like Donny Baseball, I really do. The players seem to like him, he seems to be good with young players, I really like that he argues with idiotic umpires. But - I don't think he's too smart. Let's face it. He is awful at in-game strategy, he hasn't learned how to manage his bullpen, he loves the bunt too much, and he hasn't been able to motivate the troops. And it's not like he hasn't been around the management of MLB for too long. He sat at Torre's side for years before he became the Dodger manager. If this offensive funk was just a few days old, I'd say fine, give him and the team to work through it. But it's NOT a few days old. This has been going on for some time, this inconsistency - lose a series, win a series, lose a series, win a series. Now it's getting to be crunch time, and these guys have to win, or be motivated to win. I wish Donny had a fraction of Tommy Lasorda's motivational skills. Where's the report of an urgent team meeting in which Mattingly hands his team their collective asses on a platter? Is he too laid back with them?

 

I just don't get it - why is Don Mattingly hands off? The mainstream media and the Dodger blogosphere together have written not a single word about the possibility of Mattingly being the wrong guy for this team. I think it's time to have that conversation. I think it's time to say "If the Dodgers don't make the playoffs, Mattingly should be replaced, his coaching staff examined and replaced if necessary."

 

Anyway, those are my thoughts on this wet, gray morning here in the northeast. 10-0 to the Rockies in Colorado? No excuse for that pitiful performance last night.

Deuce (is loose)
Deuce (is loose)

 @phattonez7   Most of the optimal lineup models I've read have the team's BEST hitter batting second.  Just pointing it out, don't think anything will change.  We're stuck in the 1960's.

Disgruntled Goat
Disgruntled Goat moderator

 @phattonez7 I wonder if this would be all that different using OPS. wOBA is a nice stat and all, but is it worth the extra effort? 

 

genuine question here, not trolling. 

 

*I understand what wOBA is so no need to define it. 

Gilbert_Vengeance
Gilbert_Vengeance

 @Cadtalfryn All day everyday. Tho with this line-up 3 runs given up any day shouldn't be that much of a problem.... (shouldn't) 

Frank J Lapidus
Frank J Lapidus

@Gilbert_Vengeance Even Mattingly mentioned something like when he used to be in stacked lineups and they didnt score because everbody just waited for the next guy to do something. Games like this have to be a real blow to their confidence, not beating teams they should and getting embarassed like that. Losses beget more losses. I think that game on Sunday was the kicker.

Crushinator (Bender lover)
Crushinator (Bender lover)

 @Mike Petriello super good article. "Yankees should push Arod onto the Dodgers despite them having no interest in him. The dodgers have an endless supply of money while the Yanks have endless amounts of Arod remorse."

Wait, that's not even as good as the actual quote; "He will not play for the Dodgers this year and has five years at $102.5 million left after this season. By comparison A-Rod has five years at $114 million left after this season, has a fading body and is a polarizing figure. Plus, he is six years older than Crawford. Nevertheless, you could make a case for a Yankees-Dodgers winter deal involving A-Rod."

Frank J Lapidus
Frank J Lapidus

@West Coast Ram All I know is this problem will sort itself out, and really fast...another week like this and its over

ThtsaPaddlin
ThtsaPaddlin

 @Shmolnick How'd it work out when people blamed Falsone for all the hamstring problems?

Guitar
Guitar

 @Shmolnick "he hasn't been able to motivate the troops" <--- the only thing that you stated here that I agree with... at least as far as the last couple of months. It was one of his strong suits until just a couple of months ago.

Frank J Lapidus
Frank J Lapidus

@Shmolnick most thats going to happen is Dave Hansen gets fired. I dont think anything dramatic happens until next year, if they dont make the playoffs then, heads will roll.

Tony Fernandez (MSTY Most Informative Poster)
Tony Fernandez (MSTY Most Informative Poster)

 @Deuce I've seen a paper once that argued best hitters should go 3rd and 4th. The reasoning behind it is that the production of an inning is most influenced by who leads off an inning. So because of the way that the first inning is, the first guy leads off, but the 2nd and 3rd guys usually don't. So after 1st, the ones who most frequently lead off an inning are the 4th and 5th batters. 

 

But in general, you'll want 1 and 2 to be all OBP and no power while thereafter the best combination of the two with diminishing production. 

 

So the fact that A.J. Ellis has the third best wOBA on the team yet bats eighth seems to nearly destroy most of his offensive capability. It's more than just that he bats left, it's that he's usually not batting with runners on and usually doesn't get anybody to drive him in. Lineup effects would seem to compound themselves, at least intuitively, though only to an extent. Batting A.J. Ellis 8th isn't going to cost you a ton of games. But even 1 game can make a huge difference. 

TheWerg
TheWerg

 @Deuce  @phattonez7 But we need to move the leadoff hitter over so he has a better view of Kemp and Gonzo's homers.

Tony Fernandez (MSTY Most Informative Poster)
Tony Fernandez (MSTY Most Informative Poster)

 @el serracho Oh yeah. The scale for base hits is way off with OPS. 

 

But to be honest, I am wary of using linear weights because different events are different depending on where you're batting. For instance, a Matt Kemp double is probably worth a ton of runs since he should (theoretically) often be batting with runners on. On the other hand, an A.J. Ellis double is pretty much always going to be worth way less since he's not often going to have runners on base AND he's not often going to get batters behind him to knock him in to score. So while wOBA might be pretty good for estimating individual ability (though still with its own issues), I do think that there are problems in using it to estimate how many runs a team should have scored. Maybe it averages out over the whole team, but doesn't it intuitively make sense that AJ Ellis is not really creating all of those runs that Fangraphs says he is because of where he's batting in the lineup?

Gilbert_Vengeance
Gilbert_Vengeance

 @Cadtalfryn sounds better when you say Houston's gonna win instead of Astros gonna win... the latter sounds funny.

Shmolnick
Shmolnick

 @JohnM I didn't say we should fire the coaching staff. I said we should start taking a closer look at how Mattingly and his coaches are handling a talented but mysteriously slumping team.

And it's great that dramatically outperformed expectations over the first four months of the season. It's also great that they won a World Series in 1988. That and two dollars will get you a cup of coffee at Starbucks. What have they done for us lately?

DBrim
DBrim moderator

 @JohnM  @Shmolnick Also, if you fire Mattingly, who do you replace him with? There's nobody available that I'd feel remotely comfortable handing this team to right now.

Tony Fernandez (MSTY Most Informative Poster)
Tony Fernandez (MSTY Most Informative Poster)

 @Deuce At least. Assuming a random distribution, it's about 18 plate appearances per lineup slot. So going from 8th to 1st would give AJ 126 more plate appearances over the course of a season. Since he's created 57 runs over 396 plate appearances, say you give him 100 more (due to the fact that he doesn't play everyday), then you've added AT LEAST 14.4 runs, which is about a win and a half. 

TheWerg
TheWerg

 @phattonez7  @Deuce The one counter to this is that AJ looked pretty bad when he was taken out of the 8 slot, if I recall correctly. I feel like a good bit of his success this year has come from the fact that pitchers don't attack him because he hits in front of the pitcher. If he's at another spot, that won't be the case. Then again, that can work the other way too; if he's hitting in front of our murderer's row, he's gonna see tons of pitches in the zone, and lots of fastballs, so it could actually benefit him as a hitter. I wish they would try him higher in the lineup again, but I think we are gonna have to resign ourselves to the other Ellis up there.

Deuce (is loose)
Deuce (is loose)

 @phattonez7   Not to mention that over the course of a season guys hitting at the top of the order will have 50-60 more PA's then guys hitting 8th.

Frank J Lapidus
Frank J Lapidus

@Gilbert_Vengeance Blanton going tonight? Offense has to show tonight, or else.

West Coast Ram
West Coast Ram

 @Gilbert_Vengeance  @Shmolnick  @JohnM The Angels struggles in scoring over the last year and and a half is what got Mickey fired.  There was no reason to bring him with Hanson, Wallach and Mattingly watching these guys everyday is more than enough.

Gilbert_Vengeance
Gilbert_Vengeance

 @Shmolnick  @JohnM I agree that we need to start winning games... but that "get on their ass" mentality seemed to not work out for guys like Hanley and  Agonz in Boston.... i think first and foremost if anyone is getting fired its the hitting coach... thats just how it works... Dave from all accounts has been good but we just hired Mickey Hatcher and he did really good for the Angels for years.... id say fire him replace with Mickey and see where that goes... that being said this team cant shit the bed anymore if they expect to make the post-season.... you think the media is biased now?  guess how often are you going to see Dodgers on the mainstream media come late Sept when they are mathematically eliminated from post-season contention....that biased will get turned against us in the worst way.... 

DBrim
DBrim moderator

 @Shmolnick  @JohnM Uh, we lost two games in a row.  Let's at least wait for a few weeks before we start calling for people's heads, okay?  Yeah, losing sucks, but nobody goes 162-0.

Guitar
Guitar

 @Cadtalfryn  @Shmolnick  @DBrim  @JohnM Wasn't Scioscia the first guy who pinned blame on the Angels hitting coach (behind the scenes) for Pujols' pathetic start? No one believes this was cool. As they stated on Dodger Talk,   Pujols basically is his own hitting coach at this point.

Frank J Lapidus
Frank J Lapidus

@Shmolnick @DBrim @JohnM The Angels are just as bad, if not worse...all the talent in the world but cant win