Padres @ Dodgers September 5, 2012: It’s Paco Time!

Of all the players who might have surprised you by appearing in a Dodger uniform in 2012 had you been told about them on Opening Day – Adrian Gonzalez, Hanley Ramirez, Shane Victorino, etc., and hell, even Luis Cruz – I guarantee not a single one would have caused more confused responses than hearing about Steven “Paco” Rodriguez, given that at the time, the then 20-year-old lefty was finishing his junior season at the university of Florida.

Even at the time of the draft, Rodriguez was seen as being one of the quickest draftees to make the majors; that is not, it should be pointed out, because he was the best player in the draft (otherwise he wouldn’t have been picked 82nd overall) but because college upperclassmen and relievers especially always move more quickly than younger players at other positions. Three months to the day since being drafted and after just 19.2 minor league innings (with a 32/6 K/BB), Rodriguez is a Dodger, wearing #75 tonight and pushing Chad Billingsley to the 60-day disabled list. Once he makes his debut, he’ll be the first Dodger since Darren Dreifort in 1994 (and just second overall, dating back to 1965 when the draft was instituted) to make the bigs in the same year as he was drafted. To clarify any confusion, yes, Rodriguez would be eligible to make the playoffs should the Dodgers make it that far.

Padres
Dodgers
SS
Cabrera
2B
M.Ellis
RF
Venable
CF
Victorino
3B
Headley
1B
Gonzalez
LF
Quentin
CF
Kemp
C
Grandal
SS
Ramirez
1B
Alonso
RF
Ethier
2B
Forsythe
3B
Cruz
CF
Maybin
C
A.Ellis
P
Richard
P
Harang

I’ll have more on Billingsley tomorrow and how crushing a blow that might be to the Dodgers’ hopes, but Billingsley was never going to be pitching tonight, so for now it doesn’t matter. (He’s also the tenth Dodger currently on the 60-day DL right now, which is just unreal, as Matt Angle continues his reign of terror unabated.)

With the exception of one game for Matt Treanor, Don Mattingly puts out the exact same lineup for the sixth day in a row. And again, that’s not bad in and of itself, because these are the eight guys they’re going to win or lose with. But lineup order A.J. Ellis herka derka Shane Victorino herr derr blah.

Anyway, on to far more important things: according to this tweet from injured prospect Ryan Christenson to Todd Coffey, there’s a fantasy football league called “AZ Rehab All-Stars”. Here’s to hoping that Blake Hawksworth ended up picking Tim Tebow first overall.

1384 comments
DBrim
DBrim moderator

The sore shoulder is just a narrative.  He was slumping BEFORE he ran into the wall, too.

EephusBlue
EephusBlue moderator

So Chad Moriyama did some analysis on League's mechanics and looks like it really was a mechanical issue.

EephusBlue
EephusBlue moderator

Y'know upon learning that Billz won't be back I just feel less invested in this playoff run.  After Clayton, the rotation is really thin.  Even if we do make it into the WC, all that work for it to be decided in one game.  This is a good thing for me in that I will hopefully not get so upset when the blow it or fail to score like today.  It doesn't mean I won't cheer them on or hope they can make it, but maybe at least I wont hurt for it as much.  I imagine I will look back at 2012 and marvel at how many dings we took and yet still managed to be in contention.

EephusBlue
EephusBlue moderator

I thought Kemp's ball cleared the fence. Then I saw Maybin throw something back in. I hate him now.

ThtsaPaddlin
ThtsaPaddlin

Did anyone see that the Padres have a $0 value?

Tangled Up In Blue
Tangled Up In Blue

Cameron Maybin should find another career. The Padres don't have enough fans to offset how many people he angered tonight. 

Tangled Up In Blue
Tangled Up In Blue

I wonder if we just need that one hitter? I wonder if Dee can be that one hitter?

LA_Woman
LA_Woman

Aw well, it's comforting to know there's fear in Giantland... Grant Brisbee:

But when you watch a game like tonight's, you get the fear. What if they pitch like this and hit like the team we were expecting? It'd make the Red Sox' collapse last year look like a gallant, hard-fought charge to the finish line. A Giants team that can't pitch shouldn't win. We've been blithely ignoring that simple fact, sated with this newfound offensive competency.

 

And:

Another day off the calendar, another day the Dodgers don't gain any ground. That's not a small thing. It sure would have been cool to be 6.5 games up going into the weekend series, but let's not pick too many nits.

Alright, a few nits.

Damn you, nits.

 

http://www.mccoveychronicles.com/2012/9/5/3296055/giants-experience-poorly-timed-predictable-failure-after-keeping

Tony Fernandez (MSTY Most Informative Poster)
Tony Fernandez (MSTY Most Informative Poster)

46.6% Swing%, 78.2% contact%

 

MLB Average: 45.9% swing%, 79.8% contact%

 

So it looks like there is some pressing, but not much. But I really want to go into the data and say that this is all because Ethier is driving up the percentages while apparent gaps Victorino, Kemp, and Gonzalez are bringing the stats down. We'll see.

ThtsaPaddlin
ThtsaPaddlin

 @EephusBlue MOAR BEARD.  Do you think women will ever play professional sports with men?  Do you think they should?  @LA Woman , would love to hear your opinion...

ThtsaPaddlin
ThtsaPaddlin

Can't find the source -- saw it scroll across the ticker on MLBN.

WBBsAs
WBBsAs

 @LA Woman Brisbee, unlike 99 percent of Gnatfans, is a realist.

LA_Woman
LA_Woman

 @ThtsaPaddlin  @EephusBlue I think there will be women in pro sports with men. I think it'll first happen (and maybe only happen) in MLB. There's so much of a mental aspect to baseball to go along with the physical, and the physical "specimens" in baseball have more variance than probably any other pro sport. I just hope I live to see it. And of course women "should" play with men if they so desire. That's where the money & accolades are, so they should be allowed to partake.

Weston Taylor
Weston Taylor

@phattonez7 @Tangled Up In Blue Victorion > Victorino

LA_Woman
LA_Woman

 @Tangled Up In Blue I think he's a great writer, and I certainly don't think he has his head up his ass. He's very insightful and hilarious.

Tony Fernandez (MSTY Most Informative Poster)
Tony Fernandez (MSTY Most Informative Poster)

Adrian Gonzalez

53.4% swing%, 83.6% contact%. So he's swinging a lot, but is also making a lot of contact. He may actually not be much of a problem. Remember, we can only look at those things that stabilize very quickly over small sample sizes, which means even K% and BB% over this small sample size is a little irrelevant. He should be fine with that contact rate.

 

Matt Kemp

48.8% swing%, 61.5% contact%. That's a horrible 18.2% swinging strike%. Umm, he needs to rest.

ThtsaPaddlin
ThtsaPaddlin

 @EephusBlue They're nifty because they automatically rename the papers in a standardized format, so you no longer have downloadesldfhah123rh12rqwe.pdf in a folder....it's Author - Year - Title - Journal.  Godspeed.

EephusBlue
EephusBlue moderator

 @ThtsaPaddlin I def. need to get more organized. Having it searchable would be a plus. Usually I end up just hitting pubmed and redownloading it again. Thanks for the heads up

ThtsaPaddlin
ThtsaPaddlin

 @EephusBlue Yeah that's what I had too, but I switched to Mendeley, then bought a Mac and just downloaded Papers.  Papers apparently has some nifty tools for preparing manuscripts...but I haven't used it yet.  I tend to print them too, but it's nice to have them all at your fingertips for reference.

EephusBlue
EephusBlue moderator

 @ThtsaPaddlin Also I hate to say it but I prefer printing out journal articles. Something about the tactile aspect of it as well as easily annotating stuff as I go

EephusBlue
EephusBlue moderator

 @ThtsaPaddlin huh, never used either before. Usually I just have a whole mess of pdfs in a folder labeled papers or papers I need to read. These are actually pretty good

ThtsaPaddlin
ThtsaPaddlin

 @VietnamDodger I dunno.  It was in the context of the Dodgers paying 2.15b for a team valued at 1b less.  I think it was a tweet or something.  Trying to find it.

West Coast Ram
West Coast Ram

 @WestonTaylor  @phattonez7  @Guestu76987  @Tangled I like that he wants in the game but a better manager would drop him in the line up.  I know that there is a theory that batting positions don't matter and I could see that in the AL but there is no way that we should not have seen AJ and Cruz higher in the line-up during their hot streaks.  Mattingly may not have have much flexibility with his bench but he certainly could make some changes to take advantage of match-ups and hot bats.  

Weston Taylor
Weston Taylor

@phattonez7 @Guestu76987 @Tangled Up In Blue I think it's funny that people think that just because Kemp is in the lineup means that he is the same player and should hit fourth and is the best hitter on the team, when clearly he's not right now. Matt Kemp is human just like everyone else, even though we would all like to believe otherwise.

Tony Fernandez (MSTY Most Informative Poster)
Tony Fernandez (MSTY Most Informative Poster)

 @Tangled Up In Blue LAST PROFILE, because he's the last interesting one. Everyone else is pretty close to average.

 

Shane Victorion

40.4% swing%, 70% contact%. So he's swinging too much and not getting much for it. Swinging at less than half of the pitches in the zone will do that to you. He's having problems with pitch recognition, as he's not swinging at many more pitches in the zone than out of the zone. 

 

Kemp is still showing great pitch recognition, so you can tell that his problems are from an injury that is somehow contributing to way lower contact percentages, but with Victorino it's like he can't tell the difference between balls and strikes anymore, and that's a worry because he usually swings at about twice as many pitches in the zone as he does out of the zone.