Dodgers Interested in Kevin Youkilis, And Why Not?

As you might have seen earlier this evening, I’ve reported that the Dodgers won the rights to negotiate with Korean lefty Hyun-Jin Ryu with a bid of $25.7m. It’s not been officially announced yet, but I trust my source. Anyway, we’ve talked a lot about him today already, so until we do hear more, let’s get to the other interesting news of the evening, courtesy of Ken Rosenthal:

The White Sox and Phillies are interested in Kevin Youkilis, according to major league sources. The Indians andCubs also are reported to be possibilities. But an official from one of those clubs expressed concern that the Dodgers might want Youk — and as it turns out, they are indeed considering signing him.

Youkilis, 33, would fit the Dodgers only under certain circumstances: If Hanley Ramirez ends up at shortstop and not third, if third baseman Luis Cruz becomes more of a super-utilityman, or if the Dodgers are resigned to sending Dee Gordon back to Triple A, perhaps for an entire season.

So… there’s that. And as you can imagine, the immediate response from the Twitterati hasn’t been positive, for pretty obvious reasons: Youkilis turns 34 in March, hit .235 between the Red Sox & White Sox last year, and gets hurt about every five seconds. Oh, and his presence would probably lock Hanley Ramirez into shortstop, which: gross.

That doesn’t exactly mean that there’s no scenario in which this makes sense, however. If you don’t trust Cruz to be an everyday player, as I’ve been pretty clear that I don’t, then you need another option at third base. (I’m assuming here that Juan Uribe will be sold for parts. Human parts. I’m trying to say he’ll be dismantled and his organs dispersed across the country.) Youkilis is clearly past his prime, but he’s also arguably the top third baseman available in a very weak market; there’s simply not anyone at the hot corner like there is Zack Greinke for pitchers.

Don’t forget, the Dodgers clearly also need someone else on the roster who can handle first base for a day or two if Adrian Gonzalez gets banged up or needs a breather, and there’s no one around who can currently do that. Youkilis would fill that role nicely, and even if his presence pushes Cruz to the bench, the frailty of Youkilis & Mark Ellis plus the need to replace Ramirez for defense would still guarantee last season’s hero a ton of playing time.

So it’s clear to me there’s a fit, though only on a one-year deal (perhaps with an option for a second). That being said, does Youkilis have anything left to offer after years of injuries? His overall .235/.336/.409 line in 2012 was by far the worst of his career, though he did do much better with Chicago (.339 wOBA, 15 HR in 339 PA) than with Boston (.307 wOBA, 4 HR in 165 PA). That overall wOBA of .328, while far off his 2008-10 peak, is still better than Cruz’ .326 mark in what was his breakout year.

Still, there’s no question that Youkilis is on the decline. But he doesn’t need to be the star he once was to be an asset. He just needs to not fall off any further, and last month, Michael Barr at FanGraphs put a positive spin on just that topic:

There is some evidence that he was the victim of some rotten luck. His BABIP in Boston was .288 and his expected BABIP was about .320, based largely on his odd 50% ground ball rate. His hit trajectory returned very much to Youkilis-normal in Chicago where he hit about 20% line drives, 40% ground balls, and 40% fly balls – but his BABIP in Chicago was just .257 while his expected BABIP predicted about .298.

His home run distance and speed off his bat hasn’t changed appreciably in six seasons and is actually higher in 2012 than it was in 2008 and 2009 when he was a bona fide home run hitter. Not only this, but there wasn’t a substantial change in his contact rates in 2012 versus his career:

O-Swing% Z-Swing% Swing% O-Contact% Z-Contact% Contact% Zone% SwStr%
2012 20.60% 55.30% 37.40% 60.90% 89.80% 81.60% 48.30% 6.70%
Career 19.10% 57.30% 38.60% 61.80% 90.30% 83.40% 51.00% 6.20%

This isn’t suggesting that he’s necessarily going to snap back into high-20′s home run totals, but there’s no damning evidence on the hit trajectory, contact rates, or home run distance/speed off bat front to argue there’s a smoking gun that he’s totally washed up.

So I can easily see some utility to having Youkilis be a decent, hopefully league-average third baseman, adding a safety net at first base, while also helping to improve the bench by making Cruz a potentially very good super-sub. That’s a value which can’t be ignored, because the Dodger bench last year (and, really, every year) was atrocious. Remember the days of benches comprised of Elian Herrera, Scott Van Slyke, James Loney, & Tony Gwynn? Good times. Now, you could have Cruz & Jerry Hairston at the start of a much better bench, along with whatever outfield depth they end up adding.

Now, the obvious retort to what I said above about Youkilis outperforming Cruz on offense last year is “yeah, but Cruz is clearly the better defender.” That he is, with no argument from me. Unfortunately, the Dodgers have chosen to act as though Ramirez is the shortstop, which deprives Cruz of some of that defensive value. It’s not a position I agree with in any way, but it’s clearly what the team seems prepared to do. At least with Cruz on the bench, he’d be available to spot for Ramirez on defense if needed. And if that pushes Gordon to the minors and Nick Punto potentially off the roster? All the better.

I don’t love this idea so much that I’d be in any way disappointed if it doesn’t happen, and there’s part of me that still hopes it doesn’t. But if it does, on a short, reasonable deal, yeah, I can see the appeal.

191 comments
Nineteen84
Nineteen84

This is Bill Mueller and Casey Blake all over again

Sangro Azul
Sangro Azul

How do u pronounce Ryu???

Cold Pumpkin
Cold Pumpkin

 @Sangro Azul I think Ryu is a correct pronunciation as a 'Ryu'. Even though Chan Ho Park's last name 'Park' is pronounced as a 'Bak' in Korea. 

Capnsparrow
Capnsparrow

In looking at some video of Ryu. I was surprised to see how he well he already works hitters. Here is a non flattering piece from you tube. I am impressed with how he goes after the next hitter, even after he doesn't get a called strike that was close. Then his 3rd baseman lets a ball get past him but he still is out there setting up the next guy. I wish I could see the rest of the inning.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=CVZDjwwbJtU

Cold Pumpkin
Cold Pumpkin

 @capnsparrow Ryu always has a pokerface.

Capnsparrow
Capnsparrow

 @FunToBe  I like this kids makeup. He looks as close to ready as he can probably get in the league he is in. Most of the video I found is all strike 3 pitches but that doesn't show me how he got there. 

Dang88
Dang88 like.author.displayName 1 Like

With the posting fee dodgers gotta see Ryu as a starter right?

Deuce
Deuce

If a couple things break right (Uribe stays, sign Torii or Youk) there's a chance our bench and injured guys (Lilly) could cost more than some teams entire payroll.

Cold Pumpkin
Cold Pumpkin like.author.displayName like.author.displayName 2 Like

Do you remember 2008 season? In 2008, Dodgers' bench and injured players' salary sum already exceed around 50m. A.Jones, Pierre, Nomar, Penny, Kent, Loaiza... 

WBBsAs
WBBsAs

Youkilis has also played a little outfield, so could probably handle left in a pinch.

Deuce
Deuce

 @WBBsAs   I would love Youk for about 300 AB's.  A little third, day off for AGon vs. tough lefty, a few starts in left and pinchhitting.  But have a feeling he still wants to be a regular.

Mike Petriello
Mike Petriello moderator like.author.displayName 1 Like

 @WBBsAs horribly, as I remember. I lived there when they tried that in what, 06?

VictoriaRoberts
VictoriaRoberts

 @Mike Petriello  @WBBsAs He said he would never play there again after a few embarrassing errors.  It would have to be a heck of an emergency to compel him to go out there again.

WBBsAs
WBBsAs

 @Mike Petriello I'm not recommending it, simply stating that he could be an emergency fill-in there. You certainly wouldn't sign him in hopes he could take the position over.

Omer
Omer

Ok, so I'm having trouble here, why would the Dodgers trade Ethier? He got a big contract extension last season. I'm aware that he's still got trouble hitting left-handed hitting, but he's dead-fucking-reliable as a hitter. Oh look, he quietly led the Dodgers in several offensive categories the last few seasons.

 

Is Torii Hunter really that big of an upgrade?

 

Is Grienke is sure thing to come to LA without trading Ethier?

 

I know we get hot-to-trot for certain players, but c'monI can't think of any teams that would want to take on Ethier's contract and if ownership's trying to re-energize the fanbase, trading a popular player (especially after giving hima new contract) doesn't make good business sense.

Mike Petriello
Mike Petriello moderator

 @Omer I don't think there's any indication that the Dodgers really plan to trade Ethier. I'd put it at a 5% chance.

WBBsAs
WBBsAs

 @Mike Petriello  But what does Nate Silver say?

Deuce
Deuce like.author.displayName like.author.displayName like.author.displayName like.author.displayName 4 Like

 @WBBsAs  @Mike Petriello   The mathematical probability that Ned will overpay for a veteran reliever is equivalent to the chance that the Dems will carry California.

Deuce
Deuce like.author.displayName like.author.displayName like.author.displayName 3 Like

 @WBBsAs  @Mike Petriello   That trying to project the performance of baseball players is more difficult than predicting political races.

Dang88
Dang88

Sooooooo.....Dodgers will sign T. Hunter and dangle Dre and eventually get a pitcher for him, and then we hope Puig is ready after Hunters 2 year is up

KirkDavenport
KirkDavenport like.author.displayName like.author.displayName 2 Like

Buster Olney reporting at 5:5 a.m. Eastern time Saturday that his "sources" claim it was the Dodgers who won the bidding for the Korean pitcher  (how many hours behind Mike was this announcement?)

I do not understand the wait for a formal announcement.

DBrim
DBrim moderator

I'm disappointed.  I was expecting half of the free agents to be Dodgers when I woke up.

Luke X
Luke X

Don't recall any discussion here of Stephen Drew for SS, moving Hanley to 3B.  Maybe the Drew name is banned on this board since J.D. slunk out of town.  Assuming Drew's knees are sound and the terms are right (2-3 years , $8-9 million per), I'd prefer that to the aging glove of Youk and stone glove of  Ramirez trying to hold down the left side.  Drew and Ramirez defensively wouldn't conjure up Schmidt-Bowa memories of the 80's Phillies teams, but pickings are slim..

 

And if the Red Sox are shopping Ellsbury, as Bowden at ESPN suggests (he is in his walk year with Boras as his agent), would you trade Ethier straight up for Ellsbury (a Bowden trade scenario)?  Dodgers likely only get a year of Ellsbury (but with walk year motivation) but get rid of a bad contract, and solve their leadoff hitter for a year anyway.  Boston doesn't want Ethier's contract either but they do have a hole in rightfield and have shown interest in Ethier in the pasat. 

KirkDavenport
KirkDavenport like.author.displayName 1 Like

 @Luke X Stephen Drew I do not think has been on the radar of anyone looking for a good SS, just an available one. He is an average fielder and below average hitter who had a bad year last year - negative WAR both offensively and defensively. Overall, he is not an improvement over HanRam.

I would like to see Dodgers consider somehow seeking a better SS - Elvis Andrus, Jed Lowrie, JJ Hardy are a few good ones who have been in the rumors as being trade objects

The Dodgers are limited in quality SS prospects and having a good young SS to anchor the team should be critical

LakerDodger24
LakerDodger24

 @Luke X I would take Ellsbury for Dre. He's the opposite of Dre in that he hits LHP really well as a left handed batter, but he strangely doesn't hit RHP all that good. Regardless, I believe Puig isn't all that far away anyways, so this could happen, but I highly doubt it. 

LakerDodger24
LakerDodger24

 @Luke X At least, last season Ellsbury hit LHP good and RHP bad. For his career, I believe it's much more balanced. 

KirkDavenport
KirkDavenport like.author.displayName 1 Like

 @EephusBlue  @VietnamDodger MLB experts say Puig is 2-3 years away if he can overcome his poor defense and raw play. He has some intense ability but no refined skills.

KirkDavenport
KirkDavenport like.author.displayName 1 Like

 @LA Woman  @EephusBlue  @VietnamDodger I am not down on Puig - I look forward to his arrival, but just want people to be realistic about how raw and inexperienced he is. Joc Pederson out performs Puig and has become a more of a polished player both offensively and defensively. I truly believe we will see him at the major league level before Puig. Puig might have a great future, but it is still a ways down the road

KirkDavenport
KirkDavenport like.author.displayName like.author.displayName 2 Like

 @LA Woman  @EephusBlue  @VietnamDodger I saw Puig 2x at Rancho but I am nowhere near a good evaluator, but he did seem very raw and awkward in the field. He was mostly used as a DH this year and was replaced several times for defensive purposes when he played RF. He had 2 E in 18 OF chances - another time having the ball hit him in the head when he lost it.

. Despite all the hopes of many of us, he still has not mastered "A" level ball. He only hit 1HR in 59 PA. He has speed, but frequently was CS, caught off base or ran into outs. With only 23 games this past year and apparently none the year before, he needs a lot of work. MLB experts rate him prospect #92 and give an ETA 0f 2015.

He needs several years in learning how to play the game and how to use his skills. He should not be rushed.

I think he may be more like Adam Dunn than Matt Kemp, but we cnnot be sure how he will progress

LA_Woman
LA_Woman

 @EephusBlue  @VietnamDodger Who that has been watching him closely in person has said that? No one that I've read, but maybe you've heard otherwise?

EephusBlue
EephusBlue moderator like.author.displayName 1 Like

 @VietnamDodger I think he is pretty close to being competitive at the big leage level

(VND) Supreme Moderator
(VND) Supreme Moderator like.author.displayName like.author.displayName 2 Like

But... What makes you really believe Puig isnt that far away? I really havent seen anything to suggest that except hes massive...

dustybakersoldtoothpick
dustybakersoldtoothpick

seems this offseason the only way you're roster spot is safe is if you're name is Kemp, Kershaw, Jansen, or anyone the dodgers have recently acquired in trade to start like A-Gon and Han-Ram.  This is a marlins pace roster makeover.

Shadow Commish
Shadow Commish

I'm watching Drive right now and the only thing I don't like about this movie is how much I have to mess with the volume. 

Lobo(Middling Member of Trade Ethier Bandwagon)
Lobo(Middling Member of Trade Ethier Bandwagon)

 @Antonio_G I've heard really mixed opinions about that movie.  Half the people I know who have seen it say it's terrible and was a complete waste of their time and the other half won't shut up about how amazing it was and what a crime it is that it wasn't nominated for Best Picture at the Oscars.