Dodgers @ Padres June 20, 2013: Fife vs Marquis, No, For Real

petco_park_opener2013I had an interesting question posed to me the other day: could Yasiel Puig win the batting title? I can tell you this much: he’s not going to keep hitting .474 with a .537 BABIP, like he’s doing right now. Puig could be the greatest player in the history of the sport and he would still not be able to maintain that for more than a few weeks; it’s simply not possible.

But how about that batting title? Yadier Molina is currently leading the National League at .361; he’s also got a .383 BABIP and has never hit above .315 in the bigs, so that number is certain to come down. That said, it’s going to take some math to figure out if Puig’s got a shot there. Puig has 60 plate appearances in 15 games, an even four per night. The Dodgers have 92 games remaining, so even if Puig plays every single day — a big “if”, considering this team’s propensity for injury and the still uncertain way in which they’ll need to fit Puig in with Carl Crawford, Andre Ethier, & Matt Kemp when all are healthy — that’s 368 more plate appearances. Add that to the 60 he has to get 428, and that’s still far short of the 502 he’ll need to qualify. He would need nearly five at-bats per game, and that’s just not happening.

Dodgers
Padres
LF
Schumaker
2B
Forsythe
RF
Puig
RF
Venable
1B
Gonzalez
3B
Headley
SS
Ramirez
1B
Blanks
CF
Ethier
LF
Denorfia
3B
Uribe
CF
Amarista
C
A.Ellis
C
Grandal
2B
M.Ellis
SS
Ciriaco
P
Fife
P
Marquis

So no, Puig won’t be winning a batting title this year. He is starting again in right field against Jason Marquis, and while you know how little stock I put into pitcher win/loss record, the fact that Marquis is 9-2 is just fascinating. In 84.1 innings, he’s struck out only 53, while walking 47. He’s given up 14 homers. His FIP is 5.46; his fWAR is -1.3. He’s probably one of the worst starters in baseball, but because he plays in Petco and has a good San Diego defense behind him… 9-2. Wins!

Carlos Quentin, nursing a sore shoulder, is out of the lineup for the sixth consecutive game, per Marty Caswell of San Diego’s 1090 AM, and the Padres remain without regular starters Yonder Alonso, Everth Cabrera, Jedd Gyorko, and Cameron Maybin.

As for the Dodgers, Elian Herrera has been recalled. As I guessed the other day, they didn’t stick with a 13-man pitching staff for very long — nor should they have — so hold your “another mediocre utility guy” jokes here. (No, it couldn’t be Alex Castellanos; he was only sent back yesterday and can’t return within 10 days unless someone else lands on the disabled list… so expect him by Sunday.) Chris Withrow heads back to Triple-A; I am sure we haven’t seen the last of him this season. Now, as for why they didn’t just send down Withrow yesterday to activate Chris Capuano, rather than Castellanos… you’ve got me there, but the difference at this point is too small to even worry about. If Skip Schumaker serves his suspension over the next few days, as seems likely, it makes more sense to have the bench bat than the extra pitcher.

Fri 10/11Sat 10/12Sun 10/13Mon 10/14Tues 10/15Wed 10/16Thurs 10/17
RR. Belisario9105
LJ.P. Howell152026
RK. Jansen51626
RC. Marmol26
RB. Wilson281411
RC. Withrow2544
RE. Volquez

Dodger tickets

1583 comments
WestHarlm
WestHarlm

Try your math again.  He could win it.....not likely but it's more possible that you mention.

Let's say that your math is correct and he ends up with 428 at bats.  The way the rules work is that you are given an out for every at bat you are short of 502.

Let's assume he hits .400 (crazy right - but let's have some fun).  That means he would have 171 hits - and with 171 hits and 502 at bats that gives him an average of .341 --   .341 would be used for the batting title tank.  A .341 ave, I think, would be good enough to win it.

KMT59
KMT59

I sure hope they win tonight...It's going to be bad enough going to the game with the pads fans gloating about being ahead of us in the standings but losing the 1st two in this series will really get them going

Mike Petriello
Mike Petriello moderator

Loaded question.

 RT @SteveLyons12 Recording for The Show 14 today. What did you like? What would you change?

capnsparrow
capnsparrow

It has been 5 or 6 days since Kenly Jansen has pitched

nsxtasy
nsxtasy

>> He’s probably one of the worst starters in baseball, but because he plays in Petco and has a good San Diego defense behind him… 9-2. Wins!

Pitching in a pitcher-friendly home park will benefit most of your stats; however, you would think that the park would also benefit the opposing pitchers he faces.  So the one stat that wouldn't be affected is wins and losses.

As stated on the Dodger game the other night, what gives you a good W-L record is "pitching on the right dates", meaning, on dates when your own team scores a lot of runs.  Most of Fife's stats this year are pretty darn similar to Marquis's, except for his 1-2 W-L record.  The entire Dodger pitching staff isn't going to get big numbers in the W column as long as the team keeps scoring three runs or less, game after game.

Deuce (is loose)
Deuce (is loose)

In the endless banter about whether Don should go, the comment has been made that he's not different, other teams guys are the same, etc.  Last night, Bud Black was decidedly un-Don in some of his strategies.  Exhibit A-In the 5th the Pads have runners on 1st and 3rd with one out, Marquis at the plate.  Vin says that he'll probably bunt the runner from first to second (Don ball).  On the first pitch, Ciriaco steals second as Marquis bluffs the bunt.  Marquis proceeds to single to left to drive in a run.  Exhibit B-In the 7th, Grandal leads off with a double.  Ciriaco comes up, and the Dodgers expect him to bunt (Don ball).  He bluffs the bunt, then triples into the left-center gap.  Later in that inning, Venable is at the plate against a LOOGY( Paco) with a runner at third.  Instead of watching him flail at three sliders (Don ball) Black puts on the safety squeeze-twice.  AGon makes a brilliant play to nail the runner at the plate.  The intent here is not to rip Don, but to show that there are managers that think out of the box once in awhile.

Lobo
Lobo

@apaulogies Entertainment #1 for the day, the greatest movie trailer of all time.  The IMDB description for this movie is:"A martial arts rock band goes up against a band of motorcycle ninjas who have tightened their grip on Florida's narcotics trade."  And as of today, this movie is now streaming on Netflix.  I'm gonna watch it real soon: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VpZu69OB2KM

Paulstralia
Paulstralia

i have no idea how i'm going to get through the next 8 hours. this is gonna be so brutal. 

Lobo
Lobo

Yikes.  Bit of an ugly night on MSTI it appears

DBrim
DBrim moderator

Also pretty surprised that they're recording stuff now for a game that's out in March.

DBrim
DBrim moderator

MORE TELESTRATION

nsxtasy
nsxtasy

The Padres have scored six runs or more in 7 of Marquis's 9 wins.  In his 14 starts, he has allowed 0 runs once, and 1 run once.

Paulstralia
Paulstralia

@Lobo I happen to think that penises are beautiful in their proper context. 

Lobo
Lobo

@LakerDodger24 @Lobo Right?  It's just insanity that this movie got made.  AND that there are plans for a sequel

KMT59
KMT59

@nsxtasy Mike_Tink was looking for you on DT last night

Paulstralia
Paulstralia

@Lobo @apaulogies don't have a smart phone :[ plus my job is long stretches of awkward boredom followed by brief moments of brutal manual labor. 

Lobo
Lobo

@LakerDodger24 @Lobo He comes after the games, bringing with him unending negativity and smugness.  Chaos follows him as he ruins people's nights.  He is,

THE DOUCHEBAG

JackedNate
JackedNate

@Lobo @apaulogies As with any piece of art, you can call it however you see it regardless of the artists intention.

Lobo
Lobo

@apaulogies @Lobo I don't think many people would catch on to it upon just watching it.  I read about it somewhere.  It does make sense but I don't really think it was the intent

Paulstralia
Paulstralia

@Lobo @apaulogies did not know this. i was also extremely drunk when I watched Alien, so this may have gone over my head. 

Lobo
Lobo

@apaulogies @Lobo I've always wondered if mentioning Alien was intentional considering there are a lot of theories that the Alien movies (but in particular the original) are  giants metaphor for rape, with the alien itself representing the penis

Lobo
Lobo

@apaulogies @Lobo Actually, I just remembered something kind of cool.  I know the girl from the flashback scene of Seth Rogen as a kid drawing penises.  She was a freshman at my high school when I was a senior.  She also has her own show on Disney Channel now.  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Laura_Marano

Lobo
Lobo

@apaulogies @Lobo I don't think very many people do.  Maybe Seth Rogen's character in Superbad but other than that.