Six Questions About Alexander Guerrero

Everyone’s still buzzing about Juan Uribe‘s night and the release of the 2014 schedule, but the prospect of the Dodgers signing Cuban infielder Alexander Guerrero remains the most interesting impending Dodger story, with one report indicating that the team and player have agreed to terms and are just waiting on Major League Baseball to approve the deal. I’ve seen some misinformation and questions floating around about what exactly this means, especially when it comes to roster logistics, so let’s just clear as much as possible up right now.

1. Would he need to be added to the 40-man roster?

Assuming it’s a major league deal, which it almost certainly would be — Yasiel Puig‘s was — then yes, he would be. The 40-man roster is currently full, so space could be made by moving the injured Jose Dominguez or Shawn Tolleson to the 60-day disabled list, or by DFA’ing someone like Justin Sellers or Elian Herrera.

2. Could he play for the Dodgers this season?

Sure. There’s probably a less than zero percent chance that he actually would, given that he hasn’t regularly played competitively since 2011 and the deal isn’t even finalized yet as the season runs down, but he would be available to play once he’s added to the 40-man roster. Again, there’s just about no scenario where this happens in reality, but from a logistical standpoint, yes.

3. Could he play for the Dodgers in the playoffs?

No. Guerrero wasn’t in the organization before September 1, so even if he did play over the next few weeks, he still couldn’t play for them in October — not eligible.

4. When will we see him play first as a member of the Dodger organization? 

My guess is that he’d follow the Puig plan, perhaps getting some plate appearances in Arizona during the fall instructional league, a loosely-structured set of games that begin on September 18 and run for just under a month. Then he’d probably play in one of the winter leagues before coming to major league spring training in February.

5. This is bad news for Mark Ellis, right?

Probably, but I’m also guessing it doesn’t change his situation as much as you might think. Ellis turns 37 next year, and he carries a long history of leg injuries and below-average offense, though he’s managed to hit at least enough to not kill you while you enjoy the fruits of his plus defense. We already know the Dodgers came close to picking up Angels second baseman Howie Kendrick at the trade deadline, and they were expected to take another run at him this winter. (Even with Guerrero, it’s possible they still might, I suppose.) This signing doesn’t help Ellis, but he wasn’t likely to be back anyway. As a limited bat who plays only second base and doesn’t offer the defensive versatility that a Nick Punto or Jerry Hairston does, he doesn’t appear to be an option off the bench, either.

6. What are the odds Guerrero is the Opening Day second baseman in 2014?

I’ll say 90%. You don’t give someone that kind of money if you don’t expect him to play, so barring an unforeseen injury and taking into account the lack of other options, he’s your man. That said, the long layoff is concerning, and there’s always the partial unknown that comes with an international import, so if he comes to spring training and starts flaming out like Tsuyoshi Nishioka, all bets are off. Between the uncertainty that Guerrero brings and the defense/health concerns present with Hanley Ramirez, I’m guessing the Dodgers will be sure to have a pretty solid 2B/SS backup option in 2013, probably someone not currently in the organization.

648 comments
nsxtasy
nsxtasy

Per MLBTR: The Yankees want Robinson Cano back in pinstripes next season, but team president Randy Levine made it clear there's a limit as to how far they'll go.  “[Cano] is a great player,” Levine told Bloomberg Television, according to Feinsand. “We will sit down and talk to him. Hopefully he’s a Yankee. Nobody is a re-sign at all costs, but we want him back and we feel good about negotiating something with him. But nobody is a re-sign at any cost.

What they really mean is, "We won't pay him as much as those damn Dodgers would, so we're really hoping they sign that Guerrero guy."  :)

P_F_P
P_F_P

Good thing all the other GM spots in the NL West are going to be vacant in a few months because I really really need to find a full-time job.

deBlueProgeny
deBlueProgeny

Can I say (again), an OAK vs LAD WS would be killer?

KMT59
KMT59

Reds having a big let down after facing us now 4-0 Cubs

Kewldood69
Kewldood69

@nsxtasy They don't want to bid against themselves again like they did with A-Roid.

nsxtasy
nsxtasy

@deblue For me, it would be a lot easier to not have to buy hugely expensive last-minute plane tickets.  So I'm hoping for DET-LAD.

KMT59
KMT59

@deblue I want a Dodger / San Diego series the only way I could get tickets to go ^_^

nsxtasy
nsxtasy

@KMT59 I just looked up Cincinnati weather to see if it was as hot there today as here in Chicago (not, 92 vs 95) and man, is it humid there!  Right now the dewpoint there is 74.  And if you're familiar with weather numbers, that's like a friggin steambath.  Wow!

KMT59
KMT59

boo birds in Cin 5-0

P_F_P
P_F_P

That's great but it doesn't really address my comment.

deBlueProgeny
deBlueProgeny

@KMT59 @deblue Ive been to SD for Game 4 against the Yankees. Yankess swept the series. My Game 5 tickets, well oh well refund

nsxtasy
nsxtasy

@KMT59 (A dewpoint of 65 is about when most people start feeling uncomfortable, and 70 feels downright oppressive.  So 74 is off the charts.)

nsxtasy
nsxtasy

@KMT59 The Reds must really want to make it into the WC play-in game, instead of taking the division.

nsxtasy
nsxtasy

@LA_Woman @nsxtasy @KMT59 Also, in the past three hours in Cincinnati, the dewpoint was a constant 73-74 while the temperature dropped from 91 (56 percent humidity) to 81 (79 percent humidity).  That gives you an idea of how the amount of moisture in the air can remain constant - in this case, really really humid - while the temperature changes and so does the number representing the relative humidity.

KMT59
KMT59

@nsxtasy @LA_Woman @KMT59 Of course I knew this

did you know fog is only a cloud touching the ground? when a cloud hits the mountain is then renamed fog

nsxtasy
nsxtasy

@LA_Woman @nsxtasy @KMT59 Humidity is often called RELATIVE humidity, because it depends on the temperature of the air.  Humidity is the amount of moisture in the air as a percentage of the amount of moisture possible for fully saturating the air.  But the warmer the temperature, the more moisture the air can hold.  So there is a lot more moisture in the air, say, when the temperature is 75F and the humidity is 90 percent, than when the temperature is 40F and the humidity is 90 percent.

Dewpoint tells you how much moisture is in the air, without regard to what the temperature happens to be.  It measures the temperature at which the amount of moisture in the air would be 100 percent.

For example, in Cincinnati, the temperature at gametime was 90F, and the humidity is 56 percent.  Which doesn't sound all that alarming, because the air can hold a lot of moisture at 90F.  But that's a LOT of humidity, which is reflected better by that superhigh 74 degree dewpoint.

Incidentally, 100 percent humidity is the point when fog and condensation occur, because the air can't hold any more humidity.  So when it's 90F and 56 percent humidity, if the temperature drops to 74F overnight, it would probably be foggy.  (When you think about it, you often see fog at cooler temperatures - 40's and 50's - but not all that common at a temperature of 74F.)

HTH

Tired Math Cat
Tired Math Cat

@LA_Woman @nsxtasy @KMT59 Along costal California, the dewpoint is the temperature of surface of the ocean. When the temperature in the air drops below dewpoint, you get fog. This generally happens when you live in a warm to hot area during the day with cold nights... like Santa Cruz.


I know this because the dewpoint fucked up my star gazing. 

KMT59
KMT59

@LA_Woman @nsxtasy @KMT59 dew point ids the temperature that water is released on a surface...Humidity is the amount of water vapor in a given molecule

KMT59
KMT59

@nsxtasy @KMT59 much more involved then the local weatherman...got to be able to find subs hiding under the thermocline, determine it the tides will be out and the composition of the bottom and if seals will be able to use NVG when the sneak on the beach. What munitions to use because of the haze and smoke over the target area etc

nsxtasy
nsxtasy

@KMT59 @nsxtasy That's pretty cool, BTW.  (I know, that's an obvious play on words, but it's a very cool occupation.)