NLCS Times Announced

Finally, here’s game times for the NLCS.

Game 1 (STL) Fri 10/11 — 5:37pm PT
Game 2 (STL) Sat 10/12 — 1:07pm PT
Game 3 (LA) Mon 10/14 — 5:07pm PT
Game 4 (LA) Tues 10/15 — 5:07pm PT
Game 5* (LA) Wed 10/16 — 1:07pm PT
Game 6* (STL) Fri 10/18 — 5:37pm PT
Game 7* (STL) Sat 10/19 — 5:37pm PT

Each game will be on TBS, and yes, that is a 1pm start on a Wednesday for West Coast fans, along with 5pm starts on Monday and Tuesday for the first two games at home. I’m imagining plenty of coughs getting started in the greater LA area…

1617 comments
BlueMarvin
BlueMarvin

Yes or no?  Price for Lee, Magill and a mid-level prospect?

Lobo
Lobo

A Comprehensive Look at the Lefty Advantage of the Dodgers in the 2013 NLCS:

Some stats

2013 Dodgers vs RHP: 4406 PA, 1051 H, 194 2B, 11 3B, 99 HR, 339 BB, 809 SO, .268/.331/.398 TSL, .312 BABIP

2013 Cardinals vs RHP: 4589 PA, 1148, 238 2B, 15 3B, 92 HR, 362 BB, 801 SO, .280/.343/.412 TSL, .326 BABIP

As you can see, the Dodgers are Cardinals are fairly evenly matched against RHP.  Much of the Cardinals advantage in counting stats is due to an additional 183 PA vs. RHP and not being without their two best hitters for almost the entirety of the first half of the season (unfortunately I can't find the L/R splits for just the 2nd half).  They do K less than us but we both walk at roughly the same rate (about 7.8% of all PAs).  All told, both teams do well against RHP, they probably have a slight advantage over us.

2013 Dodgers vs LHP: 1739 PA, 396 H, 87 2B, 6 3B, 39 HR, 137 BB, 337 SO, .253/.315/.391 TSL, .297 BABIP

2013 Cardinals vs LHP: 1613 PA, 346 H, 84 2B5 3B, 33 HR, 119 BB, 309 SO, .238/.301/.371 TSL, .279 BABIP

Again, pretty similar numbers overall.  Dodgers had more of the counting stats but this time they held the PA appearance advantage (126 more PAs) so again those numbers are pretty close.  However, this time the Dodgers have a clear advantage in the TSL, with a higher BA, OBP, and SLG than the Cards.  And again, the Dodgers had some abysmal players getting PAs in the first half so it's a clear edge for the Dodgers against lefties.

BUT, what the Dodgers did against lefties doesn't matter in the series.  Because the Cardinals are carrying just TWO lefties on their NLCS roster, Randy Choate and Kevin Siegrist.  Now, both of these relievers are good against lefties (.171/.268/.224 .232 wOBA for Choate and .118/.241/.147 .195 wOBA for Siegrist) but neither one goes multiple batters all that often (Siegrist more so than Choate who completed a full inning or more just 17 times out of 64 appearances.  So that gives them just two options to try to neutralize CC, Adrian, and Dre, one of whom can really ONLY face lefties (Choate) so he would be a true LOOGY for the series.  Siegrist is basically their version of Paco so he could face multiple batters.  But that's gonna mean AT MOST about 30 PAs against lefties for us in the series.  Meanwhile, we not only have 3 lefties in the pen (Howell, Capuano, and Paco) but two lefty starters, best pitcher in baseball Clayton Kershaw and the very good Hyun-Jin Ryu.  Between the two starters potentially going twice apiece (if the series goes 7 games) and probably at least one appearance of a lefty out of the pen each game.  That should mean that the Cardinals will have close to, if not more than, half their PAs in the series against lefties.

So all told, our hitters will be facing almost exclusively RHPs, against whom we are a pretty dangerous offense while the Cardinals will half their PAs against LHPs, against whom they are solidly below average.  That's a pretty serious advantage, especially given just how ineffective CC and Dre are against lefties compared to righties.  And it's enough that it should give us the overall advantage in the series.

TL;DR

Dodgers and Cards both bad against lefties, good against righties.  Cards have no lefties, we have several.  Ergo, overall offensive advantage for us.

P_F_P
P_F_P

Through a mutual friend (Punto), Drank and I have set aside our differences and I will return to my original campaign platform (Punto) for the remainder of the playoffs. Now, Drank and me and our mutual friend (Punto) share only one common enemy at the moment: John McCain and the other viable candidates for the 2016 presidency. (And St. Louis I guess.)

ABSmileBunch
ABSmileBunch

Anyone see the speculation by Buster Olney that the Dodgers will push to acquire David Price via trade this offseason?

DodgersFan
DodgersFan

@BlueMarvin NEVER EVER TO WE WANT NED NEGOTIATING WITH ANDREW FRIEDMAN. THAT COULD ONLY END IN MISERY

Lobo
Lobo

@BlueMarvin Fuck yes but no way the Rays would EVER accept that

BIah
BIah

@Lobo whoa you typed this up yourself?

DodgersFan
DodgersFan

@Lobo I read this because I knew it wasn't a political platform and/or a strongly worded letter

P_F_P
P_F_P

@Lobo It causes me decades of psychological harm whenever someone responds to a post of mine with "TL;DR," so I will happily read yours and then wisely and specifically comment on it in a way that leads to intellectual discourse.

BlueMarvin
BlueMarvin

@ JohnM @BlueMarvin Ned isn't THAT bad.  He even got the better of Beane once.  He hasn't gotten burned in trades too many times.  Even the trade for Fed-Ex worked out, and we all freaked at the time.

BlueMarvin
BlueMarvin

@Lobo @BlueMarvin Probably true but... Hanley for what's his face happened.  ;)  I know, money was involved in that decision though.

Lobo
Lobo

@BIah @Lobo Yep.  Just spent the better part of an hour pulling those stats and doing this analysis

ABSmileBunch
ABSmileBunch

@Disgruntled Goat @Cold Pumpkin (loves "willow tree") @BlueMarvin Even if they wanted a comparable package to what they received for James Shields (plus Wade Davis...I guess), then it looks like we'd have to give up at least Joc Pederson/Corey Seager, Zack Lee, and maybe Stripling (?) plus one more 'prospect' who is playing below expectations, but still has plenty of upside. Seems like way too much, and just sets us back years in developing the system. 


Though, it does seem like we're less and less likely to find a place for Joc anytime soon, we should try to maximize the return in a spot that we need.