Resetting the 40-Man Roster

celebration_2013-07-30As we look ahead to 2014, the first step is taking stock of the roster. The 40-man roster is currently full, but it’s really 45 when you include injured 60-day disabled list players. Here’s how this all breaks down:

Under contract (11): Adrian Gonzalez, Hanley Ramirez, Carl Crawford, Matt Kemp, Yasiel Puig, Andre Ethier, Hyun-jin Ryu, Zack GreinkeJosh BeckettChad Billingsley, Brandon League

Combined, these 11 guys account for about $166m for 2014. Billingsley, of course, is unlikely to be ready for Opening Day, while Beckett’s health (and effectiveness) is anyone’s guess until we get a look at him. We’ll be hearing rumors about trading one of the outfielders (and League, possibly) all winter long.

Arbitration-eligible (8): Clayton Kershaw, A.J. Ellis, Ronald Belisario, Kenley Jansen, Scott Elbert, Mike BaxterPeter MoylanDrew Butera

Signing Kershaw is obviously a huge priority for the winter, as he has one more year of arbitration remaining before free agency. I did see the report that indicated the Dodgers offered him $300m, but that doesn’t pass the sniff test for me — it’s insane for the team to have offered that, it’s more insane for him to have declined. I think it’ll get done for something like 8/$220m.

Elbert, who missed the season and had Tommy John surgery in June, is a potential non-tender candidate. (As are Butera & Moylan, and maybe even Baxter too.) The fact that Jansen is on this list for the first time shows what a ludicrous value he is, and how you never, ever, need to overspend on a “veteran closer”. (I should admit that I’m not 100% certain on Moylan’s status. If my math is right, he falls just barely a few days service time short of free agency.)

Under team control (14): Tim Federowicz, Dee Gordon, Elian Herrera, Justin Sellers, Scott Van Slyke, Chili Buss, Javy Guerra, Matt Magill, Paco Rodriguez, Chris Withrow, Stephen Fife, Onelki Garcia, Jose Dominguez, Shawn Tolleson

These are the younger players with less than three years of service time, who can simply be renewed for the minimum. Sellers & Herrera are easily DFA’d should roster space become an issue.

Soon-to-be free agents (10): Juan Uribe, Nick Punto, Jerry Hairston, Michael Young, Skip Schumaker, Ricky Nolasco, Edinson Volquez, Brian Wilson, J.P. Howell, Carlos Marmol

At 9am ET on the first day following the World Series — that’s November 1 if it goes a full seven games — these 10 Dodgers become free agents. Other than Marmol, Nolasco, & Young, who were traded for during the season, the Dodgers have the right to offer any of their free agents a qualifying offer, which would be $14.1m for one year. That seems exceptionally unlikely for any of them. It’s likely that two or three of these guys return, but the majority won’t.

Option decisions (2): Chris CapuanoMark Ellis

Capuano has a $1m buyout of an $8m 2014 option that will all but certainly be declined, though it’s possible he returns at a lesser salary in a swingman role. Ellis has a $5.75m option that, despite his shortcomings, isn’t entirely unreasonable. If the Dodgers can lock down Alexander Guerrero, Ellis is likely gone, but that’s not certain yet.

Assuming both options are declined, the Dodgers will have 33 spots on the 40-man. If you figure they retain two or three of their free agents, add two or three prospects to protect them from the Rule V draft, and add a few new players, they’ll need to clear some room. Guys like Sellers and Herrera might be best served to not get comfortable this winter, though I feel like I’ve been saying that about Sellers for three years now.

1235 comments
Dang88
Dang88

We should look for the guys with the most RBI's...................and trade for the guys that hit in front of that guy

Dang88
Dang88

Man I didn't realize Brandon Phillips had such a meh year offensively but he is a Ribby sniffer

Lobo
Lobo

Old Testament Mike:

"Holy Christ, are there some awful rumors floating around. A LOT of them, actually, and unfortunately they all make me feel as ill as the thought of a Roseanne/Rosie O’Donnell/Barbaro threesome. And that’s not even considering any of the Alex Rodriguez rigamarole. Where to start?"

"Moving on to our favorite FOX Sports midget, Ken Rosenthal! Ken, what wild story have you dreamed up today?"


http://www.mikesciosciastragicillness.com/2007/11/14/its-crazy-rumor-round-up-time/

BlueMarvin
BlueMarvin

So... is Heyman just pure speculating, or do the Dodgers really have some interest in Lincecum?

Lobo
Lobo

Hey Mike

Mike Petriello
Mike Petriello moderator

@Dang88 funny you mention that because the post that goes up in 15 minutes mentions it. RBIs are WORTHLESS.

Vin_Skully
Vin_Skully

@Mike Petriello Wow. I have not seen it anywhere... I wonder how it will affect the trade/FA business this off season.

Lobo
Lobo

Holy fuck that is terrible

DBrim
DBrim moderator

Ew.

BlueMarvin
BlueMarvin

@Mike Petriello @Dang88 Interesting... haven't heard that argument before.  But alas, if you mean it's more a product of where you hit in the lineup than skill, I can see that, sure.

Lobo
Lobo

@Mike Petriello @Lobo You should do an article in the next few weeks where you resurrect Old Testament Mike and rip apart three or four of the worst articles we've seen over the last couple weeks

Vin_Skully
Vin_Skully

@Mike Petriello - By that I mean, lots of new managers with lots of talent, but may want to bring their own guys or change the style.

Lobo
Lobo

I mean, its not like the Red Sox had the highest team batting WAR and third best team pitching WAR

DBrim
DBrim moderator

Mike works for The Man now.

Mike Petriello
Mike Petriello moderator

@Lobo @Mike Petriello because they own 50% of Sports on Earth.

As for the one I just posted, it's hard to take it seriously because it's the Christian Science Monitor and clearly biased towards 'heart' over 'logic'

Lobo
Lobo

@Mike Petriello @Lobo Aw come on, it will give you something fun to do while you agonize over the Ramon Hernandez and Drew Butera reviews