Ned Colletti’s Two-Year Deals

harang_spring_whites

I know it seems so long ago now, but there was actually once a point where the Dodgers could barely afford to fill out their roster with actual big-league talent. Way back in the dark, cold off-season of 2011-12, before the Guggenheim group came in and when we could count on Bill Shaikin camping outside a Delaware court room for days at a time, the Dodgers had a thin roster and little in the way of dollars to flesh it out.

Faced with holes and such a limited budget, Ned Colletti’s plan was to get as many mid-level veterans as he could just to put a team together, and to give them all backloaded two-year deals. In some cases that was to make the budget work; in others, it was because some of these guys likely couldn’t find a guaranteed second year elsewhere.

Every five seconds, it seemed like there was a two-year deal. Mark Ellis, two years. Chris Capuano, two years. Aaron Harang. Jerry Hairston. Tony Gwynn!

Or as I said when Gwynn was signed:

Yet it’s the second guaranteed year that’s really galling here, and I’m not just talking about the obvious jokes regarding Ned Colletti handing out two years to every warm body he can find. (Speaking of which, Rivera must be wondering what’s wrong with his agent right now, right?) Unlike free agents like Mark EllisChris Capuano, or Aaron Harang, players who had to be lured off the open market with the promise of a multiyear deal, Gwynn was under team control. They merely needed to tender him a contract, and he’d have been theirs for 2012. Would he have made more than $850k? Probably, but not by a whole lot; it almost seems that in order to save a lousy $200k right now, Colletti felt it was worth it to hand out a second guaranteed year.

Now, Magic Johnson might be spending $200k to get custom cigars made out of $100 bills, then lighting those with $50s. As you can imagine, this strategy wasn’t all that popular at the time, but now that those deals are all completed, I have to be honest: this didn’t work out too badly at all.

Capuano provided 304 innings of 3.91 ERA ball and 3.2 WAR for $10m, including his buyout.

Ellis put up 4.5 WAR in 944 plate appearances while making $8.7m, including his buyout.

Hairston faded terribly in 2013 and almost entirely negated his 2012 value, combining for just 0.2 WAR for $6m, but his ability to play so many positions was vital considering how many injuries this team had, especially in 2012.

Harang had 1.6 WAR in 179.2 innings last year, then was dealt off for Ramon Hernandez (0.4) this year, for a total outlay of something in the neighborhood of $8 million.

Gwynn was the only true bust here, because after being sub-replacement last year (-0.3 WAR) he spent all of 2013 in the minors, validating that the deal never made sense in the first place.

Total outlay here is approximately $34.7 million and 9.4 WAR. The going value of a win is somewhere in the $5m-$7m range, so depending on how you value that, these deals broke even at worst.

All in all, that’s not too bad, especially considering the situation of the time, even if we disliked most of them. So kudos to you, Ned, credit where credit is due. Now, if we can just do something about those three-year deals to mediocre pitchers — Brandon League, Matt Guerrier, Ted Lilly — then we’ll be getting somewhere.

1677 comments
Lobo
Lobo

Hey Mike, I'm done with the Elian Herrera review

Mike Petriello
Mike Petriello moderator

Man, this Hanley review is getting long.

Disgruntled Goat
Disgruntled Goat moderator

hi, i'm not going to work today. i am in bed. 

DeucesWild
DeucesWild

A shot of bourbon and ibuprofen, now it's time to try and get at least 4 hours of sleep. Good reconnecting with the late crew, g'night guys

KMT59
KMT59

time to pop another sleeping pill...I have an appointment in the morning...night all

Tired Math Cat
Tired Math Cat

Lobo is not going to like the DM he's going to wake up to tomorrow. 

KMT59
KMT59

Usual middle of the night pain where I can't go back to sleep...usually read my kindle but tonight I lost my wireless and had a lot of catching up to do here...THE EFB SHOW

DeucesWild
DeucesWild

Hey @LA_Woman how are ya?? I stayed up late just to reconnect with the night crew

DBrim
DBrim moderator

FYG

DBrim
DBrim moderator

Hi.

Lobo
Lobo

I didn't. I'm gonna give that last idea a try later today

DeucesWild
DeucesWild

@KMT59 You should've just asked, I would tell you it wasn't worth reading haha

DBrim
DBrim moderator

I think Ellsbury's contract this year may be important for Hanley's. Very good player who is frequently broken.

DeucesWild
DeucesWild

@LA_Woman Sorry! I've been making myself get to bed at a decent time lately, this is my night to make awesome food and watch a movie

DBrim
DBrim moderator

Dunno. Probably?

DeucesWild
DeucesWild

@LA_Woman When broke and without insurance, options are limited. I'll just rub dirt on it and walk it off

DeucesWild
DeucesWild

@KMT59 I would welcome it at this point. The lack of sleep is killing me

DeucesWild
DeucesWild

@LA_Woman That's what my friend told me (she is a recent grad that evaluated me through text). When I looked up symptoms, it really seemed to be consistent with every site I read

DeucesWild
DeucesWild

@LA_Woman Very much so. I don't really like using and meds unless absolutely necessary. Although when I'm at that point, meds don't usually even work

DeucesWild
DeucesWild

@LA_Woman I've been making myself and it was going well up until the pinched nerve. Now I can't sleep for shit no matter when I go to sleep