Matt Kemp Still A Dodger, David Price Still Not

kemp_2013-05-10

The first day of the Winter Meetings have been relatively quiet so far, other than the truly excellent news that the Dodgers have acquired our pal Jon Weisman for a player to be named later, giving him a limited no-trade clause.

But it’s not likely to stay that way, and the rumors are already flying. Either the Dodgers badly want David Price or they don’t, or Matt Kemp is out the door or he’s not (or not going to be healthy for camp), or the Dodgers are in with four teams on Kemp or Andre Ethier, but that definitely includes or does not include Boston, or the team is getting impatient with Juan Uribe, or they’re “lukewarm” on Masahiro Tanaka, or..

..or, well, you know. Rumors always fly this time of year, they always get people up in arms, and 90% of them lead to nothing. But we still talk about them here, because they’re fun to think about, even if nobody really has any idea what they’re talking about.

So let’s lightning round some important points here…

Price

Yes, the Dodgers are almost certainly interested in Price. No, I don’t put a lot of stock into a Chicago radio host saying that talks are progressing. But I do know this: Dodger fans who are spitballing trade ideas at me have lost their mind if they think the Dodgers are getting price without Corey Seager. I went over the reasons why the idea of a Price trade made me uncomfortable last month, so read that for a full take, but you can’t expect the Rays to give up a better pitcher than James Shields for a lesser prospect than Wil Myers. No, Dee Gordon doesn’t countLikelihood: 12.4%.

Kemp

There’s clearly a big disconnect between the fan take and the analyst take here. Fans — the ones not incoherently calling him “soft” or “lazy,” anyway — seem to think that trading Kemp under any circumstances whatsoever is a bad idea. That’s just not true, really. You make a trade that benefits you. As I’ve said before, there’s likely not a trade out there that’s worth giving up on Kemp. But if one presents itself, then by all means, go ahead and do it. Simply put, since Kemp is still not healthy — he was in a walking boot as of three days ago, and teams may not like his medicals — it’s tough to see anyone giving up enough talent to make this anything other than a salary dump. Likelihood: 3.2%

Uribe

We heard the other day that Colletti had offered Uribe’s camp several deals, and was waiting on the response, so Saxon’s report (linked above) about growing impatience passes the sniff test. Of course, we’ve been over the barren third base market a few times. Chase Headley is expensive and potentially not available. Omar Infante hasn’t played there with regularity since 2008, and is hardly appealing. No one internally is moving there, and after that, you’re left with crazy, uninformed trade speculation. Ryan Zimmerman? Sure, why not? Or Brett Lawrie, or David Wright, or Adrian Beltre, or 10 other names that are in no way realistic. Hell, why not just bring back Carlos Santana? But know this: the slowly lumbering corpse of Aramis Ramirez looms. Likelihood (of Uribe returning): 46.3% and dropping.

1084 comments
HiiiiEVERYBODY (HiiiiEVERYBODY)
HiiiiEVERYBODY (HiiiiEVERYBODY)

I feel as if we haven't learned out lesson when we trade/throw away our stars. I know we can get a lot in return for Kemp and every situation has different but ugh... The list

• Roberto Clemente

• Pedro Martinez

• Beltre

• Konerko

• Piazza

I'm sure we could add to this list...

steelmohawk
steelmohawk

@capnsparrow NOUGH!  It will make the Nationals "the best team in baseball, in local media/fanbase"

Barney G
Barney G

If they offer him three years, he's gone.

MSTI OG
MSTI OG

Who what why

Nm i dont care

NoHitWin2008
NoHitWin2008

@HiiiiEVERYBODY (HiiiiEVERYBODY) I know it's been said, but from this list only Piazza and Beltre were stars at the time of their respective departures. And I think losing Beltre was justifiable at that time...it's more of a Monday morning quarterback thing than anything else. 

Piazza, of course, hurts. Like a bitch.

TellMyWifeISaidHello
TellMyWifeISaidHello

@HiiiiEVERYBODY (HiiiiEVERYBODY) Beltre was not traded. Clemente was a rule 5 draft selection. Konerko and Pedro were prospects. Piazza is the closest comparable and that is not even any good cause kemp is nowhere near as good as piazza was

Barney G
Barney G

Martinez still hurts because all they got was DeShields.

MSTI OG
MSTI OG

Hun. Will you sign with me?

Barney G
Barney G

They might be the favorites because they got Fister from Detroit. They're like the trendy pick.

MSTI OG
MSTI OG

OK I CARE WHY DO I CARE WHAT IS THIS??? Who Are we subtweetinf?

MSTI OG
MSTI OG

Qualification for lists: not dead in tragic accent

MSTI OG
MSTI OG

To cosign a boat? I swear my loans are awesome for my credit

Barney G
Barney G

It's not a splashy move, but he isn't terrible.

MSTI OG
MSTI OG

Subtweefin* sorry for the typo

TellMyWifeISaidHello
TellMyWifeISaidHello

@HiiiiEVERYBODY (HiiiiEVERYBODY) yeah but those are two very different things. All you have proven is that if we do trade beltre we better make sure to get good value. The player that is closes in my mind to kemp would be a Pedro Guerrero really good player who was at the tail end of his prime that had some injuries. 

HiiiiEVERYBODY (HiiiiEVERYBODY)
HiiiiEVERYBODY (HiiiiEVERYBODY)

I'm not comparing them to Kemp. It's the fact that we've had these players at one point and have seen them thrive in other organizations.

MSTI OG
MSTI OG

Fine then. Ill add you to the DBrim group of people i dont like anymore

Tired Math Cat
Tired Math Cat

@TellMyWifeISaidHello @Barney G I think it would be interesting to see what is being done to cause this improvement. Is he throwing the ball harder? Is he about to blow his arm out? Is there something else that my personal bias is not allowing me to consider? I don't know. 

Tired Math Cat
Tired Math Cat

@Barney G I'm going to neither agree nor disagree with this statement. I can't comfortably say that I know who I would prefer with a 5 run lead. 

Barney G
Barney G

I think we'd agree that if Wright makes the team, we'd still be more comfortable with him protecting a lead instead of League.

Tired Math Cat
Tired Math Cat

@Barney G Right. It wouldn't be a horrible move. Doesn't make his current statistical trend less intriguing. 

Barney G
Barney G

I don't think he'd have a guaranteed spot. If he sucks, they can always release him in ST.

Tired Math Cat
Tired Math Cat

@Mike Petriello @SpaceDodger (math cat) @Barney G Given that Wright will probably only get one year, I guess it wouldn't be horrible. Just, not great, even though he did perform better than expected in 2012. Also, it looks like his 2013 might've been better than his 2012.

But he's also 39 this month and has an increasing K/9. That seems... odd. 

Barney G
Barney G

My guess is that Wright will continue his NRI streak. The lefty will be interesting because Howell wants three years.

DBrim
DBrim moderator

@Mike Petriello @DBrim @Barney G Yep. Gotta add one lefty to that, most likely. That gets you to five. If they sign Wright to a guaranteed deal for some reason, that's six. Guess that leaves room for one more after that. I rescind my initial complaint.

Barney G
Barney G

Well that just shows that he doesn't suck.

Barney G
Barney G

Even Colletti wouldn't give Wright more than one year.

Mike Petriello
Mike Petriello moderator

@DBrim @Barney G Dominguez missed so much time last year that I have no problem with him starting in the minors.

I mean, right now:

Locks -- Jansen, Wilson, Paco
Near lock -- Withrow
Minors -- Onelki, Dominguez
DL -- Elbert

Others -- Guerra

Tired Math Cat
Tired Math Cat

@Barney G It's more obnoxious. He was a non-roster invite who we chose not to sign, and now have the possibility of signing a second time. Why not just sign him the first time and get the first of that, hopefully not, three year deal ned may give him? Though, maybe he'll only give him two. 

Barney G
Barney G

That's Colletti's strategy to stockpile relievers. If a player like Dominguez still has options, then Colletti will stash them in the minors until a veteran gets injured or is ineffective. I prefer that he give the young guys like Dominguez, and Lee a chance.

DBrim
DBrim moderator

@Barney G I'm starting to wonder where all of these bullpen guys are gonna go, especially if you include Withrow and Dominguez. They might just start in the minors since they have options, though.