Category Archives: Blake DeWitt

That’s How Many Homers It Takes To Overcome An Ortiz

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There was pretty much no chance in hell that this year’s home opener was going to top last year’s…

Wow. Just, wow. Where do you even start? I’m not kidding when I say the fact that Chad Billingsley’s fantastic eleven strikeout performance (including six of his last seven betters) may only be about the fifth best thing that happened today. Seriously, things just do not come together better than this. How about the fact that any Opening Day under blue skies at Dodger Stadium is pretty much the best day of anyone’s life? The record-setting 57,000+ crowd? Vin Scully’s moving first pitch and commentary? The offensive explosion against the hated Giants, including Orlando Hudson’s cycle - a Dodger Stadium first?  And Andre Ethier’s two homers?

…but this came pretty close. Okay, no one hit for the cycle, but the four-homer outburst (as Vin noted, the Dodgers hit three homers on the six-game road trip and four in the first six innings today) against another division rival sure got the crowd going. And if you had to ask the crowd, “which Dodgers would you want to see hit homers?”, wouldn’t Manny, Kemp, and Ethier almost certainly be the top 3? Talk about crowd pleasing – no offense to Casey Blake, of course.

Can we also mention Blake DeWitt for a second? If you’ve been reading this blog at all, you’ve heard me rail on how pointless wins are time and time again. Well, batting average isn’t quite as bad as wins, but it’s up there… and DeWitt is proving why. Thanks to three walks today, DeWitt had a tidy 0-0 afternoon. He may only be hitting .267, but his OBP is up to .522. Dig that again: .522.

Unfortunately, it’s not all good news, because something simply must be done about the bullpen. Clayton Kershaw was effective if not efficient in allowing 2 ER over 5.1 innings, and Jeff Weaver finished up the 6th for him. When Ethier homered in the bottom of the 6th, we were looking at a 9-2 laugher. Yet Ramon Ortiz came in and was predictably horrible, allowing three runs on three hits (including a Mark Reynolds blast) and a walk. As you can see, this has spawned the birth of the “Ortiz DFA-O-Meter” to the top right, as they battle to see which one gets dumped first. So what was once a blowout became a situation in which the top two relievers (Ramon Troncoso and Jonathan Broxton) had to contribute 2.1 innings.

That may not seem like a big deal today, but we saw this exact thing happen last week. Just wait until one of the next two games when it’s a tight situation, and now one might not be available, simply because Ramon Ortiz can’t hold a 7-run lead. So then you’re left with counting on George Sherrill again, and we’ve seen how that turns out. I know Ronald Belisario and Hong-Chih Kuo are due back any day now but… we just can’t put up with these two much longer.

Besides, as Chad from MOKM rightfully asked, where was Carlos Monasterios? He hasn’t pitched in nearly a week – since April 8. I can’t think of any better situation for a Rule 5 pick than with a 7-run lead, and it’s not like the Ortizes are doing any better.

Finally, behold the magic of Twitter. Eagle-eyed fan ED_in_DE pointed out to me that during Ethier’s 6th inning home run… he was using Matt Kemp’s bat. I went back and looked at the tape, and I’ll be damned: he’s absolutely right.

What gives with that? I wonder if it’s the same bat that Kemp used to hit his own homer earlier in the game.

Well, That’s Enough of That

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April Fool’s or not, that was about all I could take of the Juan Pierre’s Tragic Awesomeness. I don’t even have anything in particular to discuss right now, but I just need to not have a Pierre post be the first thing you see.

In far better news… Blake DeWitt and Charlie Haeger were (finally!) officially named as the starting second baseman and fifth starter, respectively, just as we’d expected. Now all I need is for news to break that Nick Green (unlikely) and Russ Ortiz (probable) will be nowhere near this team in a week, and the Dodgers will be on a nice streak of great decisions.

Is Reed Johnson Your New Backup Outfielder?

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Lots of activity on the rumor front today regarding free agent outfielder, Reed Johnson, with Ken Rosenthal first tweeting that the Dodgers are “close” and then adding that the deal may actually be already done. We’ve been talking a lot about backup outfielders around here lately, and you may have noticed that Johnson’s name didn’t come up in my post about available players earlier this week. That’d be because Johnson is a righty hitter, which goes against everything we’d been hearing that the Dodgers were looking for a lefty bat. That could have big repercussions on the rest of the roster, but more on that in a second.

Johnson is a 33-year-old native of Riverside who’s spent the last seven seasons in the bigs with the Blue Jays (five) and the Cubs (two). He’s got a reputation as having some speed, though he’s stolen just 35 bases in his career. Johnson had a career year as Toronto’s everyday left fielder in 2006 (.319/.390/.479) followed by a brutal year in 2007 (.236/.305/.320),  which led to his release by Toronto and two average-ish years in Chicago as a 4th outfielder (mainly in center) and defensive replacement.

For his career, Johnson has a .282/.344/.411 line, for a 95 OPS+. Despite being a guy with a reputation as a quality defender, UZR has him as below average in both center and right, though above average in left.

I’m somewhat unimpressed with Johnson on the whole, especially coming off a broken foot which ruined his 2009. That said, the Dodger outfield has two big needs. First, they need someone who can be a plus defender in left to spot for Manny, which Johnson clearly can. Second, though few people want to admit it, they need someone who can replace Andre Ethier against lefties, because Ethier is useless against fellow southpaws. Johnson fits that role perfectly – for this career, he’s lousy against righties (.707 OPS), but is just fine against lefties (.841 OPS). That split was even more pronounced in 2009. If you’ve got lefty-killers Manny and Kemp, and replace Ethier with Johnson, that’s an outfield lefties should be terrified of.

So assuming that the money isn’t big and the term is just one year, I’m okay with this idea. Sure, I’d like to see Xavier Paul just like the rest of you, but I understand that he might need playing time in the minors more than anything after how much time he missed in 2009 due to injuries.

The real question is, what does this do to the rest of the bench? Sure, it’s possible that a 5th outfielder like Paul or Jason Repko could be kept, but with Jamey Carroll and Casey Blake each having past outfield experience in a pinch, I find that unlikely. In particular for Repko, this seems to be a death blow, since Johnson does everything Repko does, and does it a little better. No, the real impact of Reed Johnson (should this signing actually occur, of course), is probably going to be felt by Blake DeWitt and Doug Mientkiewicz.

Going with Johnson rather than a lefty bat means the Dodger bench is likely to be extremely righty-heavy, as Johnson, Brad Ausmus, Carroll, and Ronnie Belliard all bat from that side. Assuming that Paul is unlikely to break camp with the team, the Dodgers will need at least one lefty bat, but much of this depends on DeWitt. If he breaks camp as the starting second baseman, then Mientkiewicz would seem to have the edge on the fifth and final bench role – however, that would then mean that the Dodgers are comfortable with Carroll and/or DeWitt as the backup shortstops. If DeWitt doesn’t win the job, he’s likely to go back to AAA rather than ride the bench. That would allow the Dodgers room to carry both Mientkiewicz and a backup shortstop like Nick Green or Chin-Lung Hu, but it would also sentence them to a Belliard/Carroll situation at second base.

Either way, it should be interesting to see how the bench shakes out. And due to his outstanding splits against lefties to spell Ethier, I’d be fine with seeing Johnson added to it.

Dodgers of the Decade: Third Base

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Jeff Kent is killing it at second base, so rather than wait until tomorrow, let’s just close it and move on. His win was notable if only for the fact that it wasn’t unanimous. Somebody needs to own up to being the Mark Grudzielanek fan, please.

Dodgers of the Decade team:
C: Russell Martin (68%)
1B: James Loney (62%)
2B: Jeff Kent (88%)

Today we move on to third base, but before we do, let’s think about what we’re really dealing with here. Third base for the Dodgers has been a black hole from whence no light can escape for years. Before Adrian Beltre, do you know who the last Dodger third baseman to play even 500 games (just barely over three seasons) at the position was? Ron Cey, and his Dodger career ended in 1982, nearly 30 years ago. So to say that third base for the Dodgers doesn’t exactly have the cachet of, say, center field for the Yankees is a bit of an understatement.

Even in this decade, it had somehow gotten worse. In October 2007, I noted all of the Dodgers who had seen time at 3B since Beltre departed after 2004, and let me tell you – it’s a sorry group:

Dodger Third Basemen, 2005-07 (3 seasons since Beltre left):
1. Mike Edwards
2. Oscar Robles
3. Antonio Perez
4. Olmedo Saenz
5. Nori Nakamura
6. Jose Valentin
7. Willy Aybar
8. Cesar Izturis
9. Wilson Betemit
10. Bill Mueller
11. Julio Lugo
12. Ramon Martinez
13. Joel Guzman
14. Wilson Valdez
15. Tony Abreu
16. Shea Hillenbrand
17. Nomar Garciaparra
18. Andy LaRoche

I look at some of those names and blood starts rushing from my ears. Antonio Perez! Shea Hillenbrand!! Nori Nakamura!!! I am now having an epileptic seizure. And that list is only just from after 2007, because since then we’ve added 7 more names: Blake DeWitt, Russell Martin (!), Casey Blake, Pablo Ozuna, Mark Loretta, Ronnie Belliard, and Juan Castro. While Blake has finally solidified the position, that’s still 25 players through the revolving door in just five seasons.

Yet while Beltre clearly had the best season of the decade with his monster 2004, and will have the highest total WAR, that’s also because he played the longest. He was largely subpar before 2004, even putting up a .290 OBP in 2003. Blake has, in some regards, actually outplayed Beltre, including in OPS. Also competing: Blake DeWitt and Wilson Betemit.

Third Base

Adrian Beltre (737 games, 2000-04)
Dodger stats: .278/.331/.476 .808 125 hr 421 rbi
WAR: 18.8

Casey Blake (197 games, 2008-09)
Dodger stats: .272/.349/.466 .814 28 hr 102 rbi
WAR: 7.1

Blake DeWitt (148 games, 2008-09)
Dodger stats: .257/.333/.384 .717 11 hr 56 rbi
WAR: 2.3

Wilson Betemit (139 games, 2006-07)
Dodger stats: .236/.332/.455 .787 19 hr 50 rbi
WAR: 0.3

Top three seasons
10.1 WAR Beltre, 2004
6.1 WAR Blake, 2009
3.5 WAR Beltre, 2000

Just like I said for catcher, this encompasses every year of the decade… except 2005. What a horrendous year.

Dodger third baseman of the 00s: go!

[polldaddy poll=2438792]

MSTI’s 2009 in Review: Third Base

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85toppscaseyblakeCasey Blake (B+)
(.280/.363/.468 18hr 79rbi)

I just want to make this abundantly clear, because I’ve been getting grief over this for months: I don’t hate Casey Blake. I like him just fine, as he’s a solid 3B who had a pretty good year, and that’s not even considering the outstanding beard. I just think that far too much was given up in the trade that brought him to LA, and I think that giving him a guaranteed third year for 2011 last offseason was unneccessary. That’s all. Look, this is even what I said in the very first post regarding his arrival:

Look, I don’t really mind getting Casey Blake. He’s a useful guy. I just think that what Colletti gave up to acquire him is mind-blowingly out of proportion.

And that’s exactly the case today, though we of course know a little bit more about why Colletti had to give up Carlos Santana just to save a measly $2m. Back to 2009, Blake had, surprisingly, one of the best years of his career. What was more impressive to me was the timing, because while Blake had hot streaks and cold streaks, he got hot exactly when the club needed it the most – when Manny was suspended. As I said in our first half review:

Say this for Casey Blake, the man knows that timing is everything. On May 6, the day before Manny was suspended, Blake was hitting just .225/.324/.427. In the 46 games Blake played during Manny’s absence, Blake really stepped up, putting up a .319/.371/.530 line, with 6 homers. As the 11th most valuable 3B in MLB by VORP, the Most Interesting Man in the World has been more than serviceable at the hot corner.

Now sure, he suffered a severe power outage after that (just 3 homers in 2 months), and it’s true that he completely disappeared in the playoffs (just 5 singles in 32 plate appearances), which is what’s keeping me from giving him an A. The fact of the matter is, Blake ended up being the 9th most valuable MLB 3B by VORP, and if I’d have told you that he’d be a top 10 3B before the year, you’d have taken that in a heartbeat, right? Even better, his fielding, which was suspect, actually improved. I think you could see this with your naked eye, but even the relevant fielding stats – which had him as a slightly below-average 3B in previous years – had him pegged as being about 7-8 runs above average. So if you take all that into account and forget how he arrived in LA, all you can say is, “well done, Casey. Well done.”

Now let’s work towards making you the four-corners power bat off the bench in 2011 that you really ought to be. 

85toppsmarklorettaMark Loretta (F-)
(.232/.309/.276 0hr 25rbi)

Hey, look at Mark Loretta’s card! He’s doing exactly what he does best, and that’s congratulating others on a job well done. You’ll notice there’s not a whole lot of pictures out there of Dodger teammates congratulating Loretta on his own achievements, because, well, there really weren’t any (game-winning single in NLDS Game 2 aside, of course).

Let’s look back and see what exactly Loretta was signed to do, which, admittedly, I loved at the time:

I know I’ve been pretty negative about everything lately, but I love this signing, especially for just $1.4 million over one year. In fact, when the rumor first popped up a week ago, I was completely in favor of it – why wouldn’t I want a guy who could play all four infield positions and absolutely destroys lefties, especially when it seems as though at least half of the infield will be lefty batters? DodgerThoughts points out that Loretta’s had an OBP of .345 or better since 1997, and that’s fantastic. He’s basically Nomar, but better: he might have never had Nomar’s pop, but he can play more positions, and he won’t rack up an extra $10 million in doctor bills.

So how’d that work out? Well, not only did he have the worst season of his career, (345 major leaguers had at least 200 plate appearances this year, and by VORP, Loretta was 330th) he got worse as the year went on. A very nice April (1.050 OPS) was followed by five months in which he never managed a monthly OPS over .703 – and included an absolutely horrific July in which he had 3 singles in 30 plate appearances.

I’m not going to kill Ned Colletti for this one, because I thought it was a great idea at the time, and it just didn’t work out. For just $1.4m, anyway, it was a worthy gamble – as long as they cut the cord and don’t try to bring him back, Mark Sweeney-style.

85toppsblakedewitt

Blake DeWitt (inc.)
(.204/.245/.388 2hr 4rbi)

I probably should have used a picture of an airplane or a postcard from New Mexico, because DeWitt spent pretty much his entire season flying back-and-forth between Los Angeles and Albuquerque. How many times did he get recalled? Five? Six? I don’t even remember, and the exact number isn’t even important, because DeWitt was the definiton of “26th man” this year. Talk about a slight difference from his 2008 of “out of nowhere Opening Day 3B and playoff 2B” to his scenic tour of the southwestern United States in 2009, right?

You can’t put any stock whatsoever into his MLB stats, because 53 plate appearances spread out amongst 6 stints on the team are meaningless. That said, his minor league line from this year is indeed troubling. In 2008 at AAA, he had a line of .306/.366/.486 – an .852 OPS (granted, in just 124 AB). In 2009, every part of that line fell, to a .776 OPS.

Still, DeWitt will be just 23 for the majority of 2010, and it’s hard to really kill him on his AAA numbers considering how much he was jerked back and forth – and if there is a bit of hope, it’s his 44/48 K/BB line in the minors. I suppose at this point he’s at least got a prayer of being 2010′s Opening Day 2B, if the Dodgers decide to go the cheap route, but it seems incredibly unlikely. If that’s the case, it’s nice to know that you’ve got a guy like DeWitt in the minors, who should hopefully still be improving and might be a starter on other teams, ready to step in.

Next! Rafael Furcal’s back recovery! Juan Castro’s zombie-like ability to stay employed! Chin-Lung Hu’s token appearance! It’s shortstop!