2012 Dodgers in Review #30: SP Chad Billingsley

3.55 ERA 3.34 FIP 149.2 IP 7.70 K/9 2.71 BB/9 fWAR B-

2012 in brief: Turned frustrating first half into dominant second half before missing final month due to elbow injury.

2013 status: Signed for $11m in second year of 3/$35m deal, but will have to deal with lingering concerns over his health all season.

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Though this won’t be the last piece in the Season in Review series to run, it is the last to be written. I’ve been putting it off because I often find writing about Chad Billingsley so exhausting. For so long so many people have been convinced that he doesn’t have “the heart to win” that it gets tedious at times to explain that no, he’s actually been a very solid pitcher, and yes, you can still be very good even though you’re not quite Clayton Kershaw. Oh, and he landed on the disabled list this season, twice. This isn’t going to be short.

Remember, things got off to such a promising start when Billingsley absolutely destroyed the Padres in his season debut:

I’m not sure if we saw the birth of a new Chad Billingsley tonight in San Diego, but what I do know is that we saw a pitcher who was dominant from start to finish. He began the game by striking out the side; he ended it by retiring sixteen consecutive Padres until a Cameron Maybin single knocked him out in the ninth after 103 pitches. In between, he allowed just two doubles and a walk as no Padre even advanced to third. Aided somewhat by a generous strike zone for both pitchers, Billingsley mowed down 11 batters, tied for the fourth-most he’s ever had. By the somewhat imperfect “Game Score” metric, it was the best start of his career.

But Billingsley’s always had problems with consistency in his career, so we rightfully wondered if he could keep it up. At first, he could; after three starts, he had walked one and allowed three earned runs in 20.1 innings. The third start was perhaps the most impressive, because it started so poorly:

By the time the second inning was over tonight, Chad Billingsley had allowed two runs to score on five hits, including a Mat Gamel homer, two doubles, and a triple. You could almost feel the internetz hate squadz gearing up to destroy him, claiming that his early success was due to inferior competition and rallying to impugn his manhood/guts/heart, etc – you know, the full-on Jonathan Broxton treatment.

We can argue all night long about whether the old Billingsley might have crumbled after such a start, but there’s no question that the 2012 edition isn’t about to let such troubles stop him. Billingsley bounced back to pitch four perfect innings (other than hitting Ryan Braun with a pitch, which sounds pretty perfect to me), retiring the final 11 Brewers he faced.

So when Billingsley got rocked in Houston his next time out, failing to get through four innings in what became a 12-0 loss, we weren’t that worried – faith that was repaid when he matched Stephen Strasburg through seven innings back home in Los Angeles. By the end of the month, he had a 25/7 K/BB and a 2.64 ERA, and things were going as well as could be expected.

Not that we ever expected anything to go this smoothly for Billingsley, of course, because it rarely does, and May didn’t go so well. In fact, it was his ugliest month of the season, pitching to a 5.52 ERA and an .888 OPS, though he was rarely outright terrible. Here’s a fun example of one such game from May 20, better remembered as the highlight of Scott Van Slyke‘s season as his pinch-hit homer helped push the Dodgers to a sweep of St. Louis:

When he struggled to begin the game tonight, he kept the runs off the board. When he was making better pitches, he got victimized for five runs. Baseball is just a ridiculous sport sometimes.

Facing ten St. Louis batters over the first two innings, Billingsley allowed four singles and three walks, including loading the bases with no outs in the top of the second. He managed to escape the first inning in part to a K/CS double play, then ended the mess in the second by getting Rafael Furcal to bounce into a 1-2-3 double play; he then set down the Cardinals in order in the third & fourth, including strikeouts of Matt HollidayCarlos Beltran, & David Freese, and it looked like he’d found the groove.

Yet in the fifth, the Cards scored three in an inning fueled mainly by Billingsley’s error before allowing a Skip Schumaker triple; in the sixth, he allowed two more on three of the bloopiest bloops that ever BABIP’d. That’s not to excuse his entire performance, of course, because he was consistently missing spots, just that between the tight zone, defensive miscues, and well-placed balls, this was a Billingsley start which required far more than just reading the final stat line.

Billingsley stumbled again to finish May with a lousy start against Milwaukee, but then kicked off June by outdueling Cliff Lee in Philadelphia for his first win since April 11. Well, he sort of did that; Lee was completely dominant, striking out 11 while keeping the Dodgers off the board until the eighth, while Billingsley struck out just two non-Lee hitters and was already out of the game when the winning run came across. Wins! He followed that up with an excellent start in Seattle, allowing a single run in seven innings, but then immediately tossed out back-to-back clunkers against the White Sox & Angels.

Despite the shoddy performance in the Angels game, I couldn’t help but attempt to inject some logic into the endless stream of abuse:

So yes, Billingsley was very poor tonight, his second consecutive bad start after two very good ones, and you’ll get not a word of disagreement on that from me. It’s unbelievably frustrating to watch him go through these periods, because you have no idea what you’ll get out of him on any given night, and I have absolutely no idea how to fix that; there’s a not-at-all-small part of me which wonders if he’ll ever change. In fact, tonight’s game was so bad, what with Jamey Wright pouring gasoline on the fire and the offense completely disappearing after the second inning, that I don’t even want to talk about it anymore or think about it ever again.

Instead, a thought question. Heading into tonight’s game, these two Dodger starters each had 14 starts this season. Their primary pitching stats could not have been more similar:

A) 81.2 IP  3.74 FIP  3.95 xFIP 8.27 K/9 3.31 BB/9 1.1 fWAR
B) 86.1 IP  3.82 FIP  3.91 xFIP 8.34 K/9 3.23 BB/9 1.1 fWAR

That’s Billingsley in line “A”, and Capuano in line “B”, and I don’t show these stats to try to defend Billingsley’s performance tonight. (Obviously, these numbers are not going to look so similar when tonight’s mess is included.) I point them out because I find the perception gap between these two pitchers fascinating. If you were to ask a random sampling of Dodger fans how they feel about the two, I’m guessing their reactions would be phenomenally different. Regarding Capuano, you’d probably hear terms like “All-Star selection” and “best signing of the winter”; for Billingsley, of the few replies which would even be printable, you’d almost certainly hear responses like “get rid of the loser” and that “he doesn’t have any heart”.

As I joked a few days later when Andre Ethier injured his oblique in San Francisco, it seemed like Billingsley would be blamed for that, too. After a few more okay-but-not-great starts, we reached the midway point of the season, and I had no idea what to make of him:

I’m still looking for a way to explain the fact that Billingsley has a better K rate, a better HR rate, a similar walk rate, and better FIP & SIERA than supposed hero Capuano, yet has had his results be so poor. I say that not in a snarky way; I honestly don’t know what the cause is. That doesn’t completely excuse Billingsley, of course, because there’s a big difference between what should have happened and what did happen, and the results haven’t been there. Still, there’s a lot of reasons to think that we’ll see a better Billingsley in the second half. What we won’t see, of course, is fans who don’t hate him.

We would indeed see a better Billingsley in the second half, but not quite as soon as we hoped; he was scratched from his first start after the break with elbow soreness and was placed on the disabled list two days later, giving Stephen Fife his first chance. Due to the time off over the break, Billingsley missed just the one start, and returned on a 104-degree night in St. Louis to allow only one run over six innings. He followed that up with 7.1 shutout innings in a 10-0 win in San Francisco, then yet another great outing against the Cubs in a game that will always be remembered more for Vin Scully, A.J. Ellis, & Twitter:

You might think the hero of tonight’s 6-1 victory over the Cubs was Chad Billingsley, who tossed his third consecutive excellent start since returning from the disabled list by holding the Cubs to one run over seven innings. That’s now 20.1 innings in which Billingsley has allowed just three runs with a 13/3 K/BB over those three starts, as he attempts to set the highest VORB score since Casey Blake left town, and I’m assuming I don’t have to explain what VORB stands for.

Billingsley wasn’t quite as great in his next start, though he got the win anyway – wins! – and then he followed that up by throwing eight shutout innings in Pittsburgh. We thought we’d finally found the reason why:

Chad Billingsley in five starts since returning from the disabled list: 34.2 innings, 6 earned runs, 27 hits allowed, 23/6 K/BB… five Dodger wins. Yes, the strikeouts are a little down, but six walks in five starts? Yes, please. On the season, that’s a 3.62 ERA and a 3.23 FIP; the latter figure puts him in the top 15 of all starting pitchers in baseball. Remember when everyone was claiming he had “no guts” and absolutely had to be cut/DFA’d/rocketed into the sun? Me neither.

So what’s leading this Billingsley revival? It’s the beard, of course! Compare that full growth above to the wispy goatee stubble he was displaying in his final start before being injured, when he allowed four runs in six innings in a loss to Arizona. Well, it’s either that or the fact that he was never as bad as people liked to think he was and his quality peripherals meant that his luck was almost certain to even out sooner or later. But mostly the beard.

By that point, I’d taken to calling him “Chad Beardinglsey“, and while you probably don’t need to read a quote of one more great outing, it was his last one of the year, so let’s take it while we can get it:

After seven more scoreless innings in Atlanta today, we’ve now seen six Chad Beardinglsey starts since his return from the disabled list: 41.2 IP, 6 earned runs, 30 hits, 8 walks. Uh, yeah. That’ll work. It was the fifth time in those six starts that he gave up zero or one earned runs, and that knocks his FIP down to 3.21, which is not only good for second-best in his career (behind only 2010′s 3.07), it’s 14th in baseball this year – ahead of stars like CC SabathiaMatt CainMadison BumgarnerJake PeavyCliff Lee, & Jered Weaver. You know what’s looking really, really good right now? The 3/$35m contract that ties him to the Dodgers through 2014.

Yeah: about that. Five days later, Billingsley started against the Marlins but he didn’t make it through the fourth before being pulled. In the midst of the Adrian Gonzalez trade insanity that was happening that weekend, we hardly noticed. But two days later, he was back on the disabled list with a partially torn elbow ligament, and while we held out hopes for a few weeks that he could return in 2012, it never really seemed likely. He was moved to the 60-day disabled list in the first week of September, officially ending his year, and we worried that the loss of a pitcher who had suddenly become a junior-level ace to Kershaw might torpedo the season. (It surely didn’t help.)

Now, instead of dreaming about the new Billingsley teaming with Kershaw and whatever import arrives to tear apart the NL West in 2013, we have to worry about just how long his elbow will hold together. While the initial reports are positive – he reportedly touched 94 MPH in Arizona in late October – the history of pitchers trying to work their way through a torn ligament without surgery is poor. (That’s a separate post entirely, one which we’ll have up sometime in December.) And now the eggs are all in the rehab basket, because while it wouldn’t have mattered much if he had Tommy John surgery in August or November – he’d have missed 2013 and likely been ready for 2014 in either case – now if his elbow gives out at some point in the spring or early season, he’s probably missing 2014 too.

It’s not unheard of that it won’t, of course; Adam Wainwright is a good example of a pitcher who pitched effectively for years with a small tear before it became a big tear, but again, that’s a topic for another day. The odds are stacked against him, however, and it’s more than a little disappointing for a personal favorite who seemed to finally have put it all together.

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Next up! Nathan Eovaldi gets traded in for a slightly-used Hanley Ramirez!

Is The Loss of Chad Billingsley Going to Sink the Season?

Yesterday, in “news that is horrendously disappointing yet in no way surprising…” we learned that Chad Billingsley had been placed on the 60-day disabled list due to continued pain in his pitching elbow. While I’d long since given up on him returning as a starter this year, there was at least the hope that he could return as a short reliever to add an intriguing new weapon to the bullpen down the stretch. This doesn’t necessarily mean the injury is more severe than it was a few days ago, just that the determination has been made that he won’t be back this season, and that his 40-man spot is better used elsewhere, like adding Steven Rodriguez to the bullpen. (Yes, I know that Tommy John surgery is the most likely outcome, given that his UCL is ‘partially torn’. I’m trying to be optimistic. I can think of about 1,249,091 other things I’d rather talk about than the prospect of Billingsley losing his age-28 season to the zipper.)

That’s more than a little terrifying for what it means for his future, but for now, let’s focus on the remainder of 2012. Considering how effective Billingsley had been since returning from his initial stint on the DL, this counts as a massive blow to the Dodger playoff hopes. Sure, the continued and seemingly endless struggles of the shiny new offense have been discouraging, but at least the talent is in place there and all you can do right now is hope they work themselves out. Yet when you look at the rotation behind Clayton Kershaw… well, over at SI.com, pal Jay Jaffe looked at each of the starting staffs of NL contenders now that the impending shutdown of Stephen Strasburg has hopefully brought Washington back to the pack a bit. It’s not pretty, as the Dodgers rank in last by his counting, and in case you’re wondering there’s no bias here; Jay’s a lifelong Dodger fan.

Dodgers: Clayton Kershaw (2.97), Chris Capuano (3.74), Joe Blanton (4.12), Josh Beckett (4.18), bullpen (3.60). Pythagorean estimate: .499.

The Dodgers’ chances take a huge hit with the loss of Chad Billingsley (3.41), who if he returns from his latest bout of elbow inflammation will likely be limited to a bullpen role. That leaves the number two spot in the hands of the fading Capuano unless Beckett can rediscover his lost form. Note that the team’s chances fall if Aaron Harang (4.24) is swapped in for any of the starters. On the other hand, note that the 4.01 runs per game produced by the offense is based on a lineup that lacked Matt Kemp for two months and that more recently underwent a significant facelift via the additions of Hanley Ramirez and Adrian Gonzalez, massive upgrades over the unproductive Dee Gordon, Juan Uribe and James Loney. Swap in the team’s second half scoring rate of 4.37 runs per game, and the Dodgers’ estimate rises to .541, even without Billingsley.

Kershaw is still Kershaw – some of those curves he was snapping off Tuesday night were among the tightest I’ve ever seen from him – but unfortunately, in the same way that Billingsley came back from a tough first half as we’d expected, Capuano is in the midst of a second-half slide. Capuano’s a notorious first-half pitcher (3.70 ERA vs 4.96 career) and it’s happening again this year, with a line of “.669 OPS against and  2.91 ERA in 18 starts before the break” turning into “.731 OPS against and  4.91 ERA in ten starts since,” a very worrisome trend.

Beyond Capuano… well, Beckett, Blanton, and Harang may all be the same kind of guy. Beckett was decent in his first start and very good in his second, but is still having a down year overall; Blanton was a disaster in his first four outings before turning it around for his last two; and Harang is what he is, a decent innings-eater who is fine for the long haul but who you absolutely do not want starting in a playoff game. They’re good space fillers, but not really the type of guy you want matched up against Gio Gonzalez, Jordan Zimmermann, or Johnny Cueto, which is exactly what might happen if the Dodgers are forced to use Kershaw in the final game or two against San Francisco or in a one-game wild card playoff immediately after.

I don’t want to get too pessimistic here, because you do still have Kershaw, this offense could catch fire in half a heartbeat and I still believe in the bullpen, especially when Kenley Jansen returns. And importantly above all, there’s still six head-to-head games with the Giants and four against the Cardinals (currently holding down that second wild card spot), and that allows the Dodgers to have some control over their fate rather than just watching San Francisco pull out a magic finish against some other team every night. It’s still eminently possible for the Dodgers to take this division back, or to sneak in as the wild card. They’re just running out of time, and with that first crack at the Giants coming tomorrow, it’s going to have to happen right now. With a starting rotation that features only one sure thing, support needs to come from somewhere else, so Kemp, Gonzalez, Victorino, etc: now would be a good time.

Chad Beardingsley Can’t Be Stopped, But Luis Cruz May Have Been

After seven more scoreless innings in Atlanta today, we’ve now seen six Chad Beardinglsey starts since his return from the disabled list: 41.2 IP, 6 earned runs, 30 hits, 8 walks. Uh, yeah. That’ll work. It was the fifth time in those six starts that he gave up zero or one earned runs, and that knocks his FIP down to 3.21, which is not only good for second-best in his career (behind only 2010′s 3.07), it’s 14th in baseball this year – ahead of stars like CC Sabathia, Matt Cain, Madison Bumgarner, Jake Peavy, Cliff Lee, & Jered Weaver. You know what’s looking really, really good right now? The 3/$35m contract that ties him to the Dodgers through 2014.

Billingsley pushed a single through the right side in the fifth inning, but with Mike Minor dealing as well for Atlanta, he was going to need some help to come out of this one on top – especially considering that Matt Kemp, Andre Ethier, Hanley Ramirez, & James Loney all went hitless today. The answer came, as it often seems to do these days, from Luis Cruz, who hit a no-doubter blast over the left field wall in the fifth inning – his second dinger in two days – for the only run Billingsley would need.

Unfortunately for Cruz, it could be said that he truly became a Dodger today – but not in a good way. Leading off the top of the ninth inning, he grounded out to shortstop, and clearly pulled up lame before reaching the base, suffering what appeared to be yet another Dodger hamstring injury. No word yet on the severity (or lack thereof), but he was replaced by Adam Kennedy at third for the bottom of the inning. If he’s unavailable for even a few days, a roster move is going to have to be made; as we discussed this morning, adding a 13th pitcher in Scott Elbert makes the bench dangerously thin.

While Cruz’ homer provided all the margin the Dodgers would need, they did score one in the eighth and three in the ninth, in no small part to right fielder Jason Heyward‘s adventures in right field. Heyward lost balls in the sun in each inning, with Mark Ellis‘ eighth-inning ball dropping for an RBI, and A.J. Ellis‘ ninth-inning fly going for a double. The latter play helped to load the bases for Mark Ellis, who put the game away with a bases-clearing double.

With the win, the Dodgers end a successful road trip at 7-3 and head home for three against the Giants, who are down 3-0 to San Diego in the first at the moment. But who will be playing third base? I can’t even believe I’m saying it, but if Cruz is out it’s a huge blow, because with Jerry Hairston still injured that means the Dodgers would have no choice but to play Kennedy or Juan Uribe there everyday.

Chad Billingsley Getting the Results To Match the Performance

Chad Billingsley in five starts since returning from the disabled list: 34.2 innings, 6 earned runs, 27 hits allowed, 23/6 K/BB… five Dodger wins. Yes, the strikeouts are a little down, but six walks in five starts? Yes, please. On the season, that’s a 3.62 ERA and a 3.23 FIP; the latter figure puts him in the top 15 of all starting pitchers in baseball. Remember when everyone was claiming he had “no guts” and absolutely had to be cut/DFA’d/rocketed into the sun? Me neither.

So what’s leading this Billingsley revival? It’s the beard, of course! Compare that full growth above to the wispy goatee stubble he was displaying in his final start before being injured, when he allowed four runs in six innings in a loss to Arizona. Well, it’s either that or the fact that he was never as bad as people liked to think he was and his quality peripherals meant that his luck was almost certain to even out sooner or later. But mostly the beard.

Of course, Billingsley was far from alone in tonight’s blowout, much of which came in the ninth when Chad Qualls imploded to allow five additional runs. Luis Cruz – and more on him tomorrow – had the game of his life, driving in three on three hits, while Hanley Ramirez also had three. James Loney (!)  & Matt Kemp each had two hits; of the eleven Dodger hits, ten were singles. Juan Uribe, at least, went 0-4 (albeit with a walk) while batting second, sinking his season line to .186/.247/.282, so all remains right in the world. With the win, the Dodgers have won four of the first five on the road trip, briefly putting them a half-game up on the Giants as San Francisco entertains Washington tonight.

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Fun game in Rancho Cucamonga tonight, as Ted Lilly resumes his rehab by starting for the Quakes, striking out two in his single inning of work. The far more interesting story there is that Yasiel Puig makes his debut at designated hitter and third in the lineup. Puig grounded out in his first at-bat, which came just after Joc Pederson hit his 14th homer of the season.

A.J. Ellis, of Twitter Fame, Has Really Got Something Trending

You might think the hero of tonight’s 6-1 victory over the Cubs was Chad Billingsley, who tossed his third consecutive excellent start since returning from the disabled list by holding the Cubs to one run over seven innings. That’s now 20.1 innings in which Billingsley has allowed just three runs with a 13/3 K/BB over those three starts, as he attempts to set the highest VORB score since Casey Blake left town, and I’m assuming I don’t have to explain what VORB stands for.

If not Billingsley, you might even think that the biggest star was A.J. Ellis, who went deep twice, his ninth & tenth blasts of the season. Ellis played in parts of nine seasons in the minors before this season, you know. Despite spending around half that time in Las Vegas & Albuquerque, he hit more than two home runs in an entire season exactly three times. When I say “more than”, that’s with the strictest definition of the word, because “three, four, and eight” are hardly breakout power seasons. While I’ll admit I don’t have the game logs for Jacksonville’s 2007 season handy, I’m going to go out on a limb and say that he’s never hit multiple home runs in a game at any level of professional baseball.

Never, that is, until Vin Scully deemed it to be so.

During the sixth inning, Scully went on a fun tangent about Twitter, helpfully transcribed here by “ThtsaPaddlin”:

“You know this year, more than many years, I have a great deal of gratitude for the all the folks listening on radio and watching on television.  Pitch in for a strike, 1 and 1.  For instance, earlier this year I learned about a soul patch — that little bit of beard. 1 ball, one strike.  That’s a strike.  1 and 2.  Then of course, the great discovery.  Troy Tulowitzki‘s hairdo: A mullet!  Boy, that, that really put me in line.  So now I know about a soul patch and a mullet. And then the other night, talked about a-a ‘tweet,’ only I called it a ‘twit,’ but I-I-I thought it was a ‘twit,’ since it’s Twitter.  A drive to the gap in left-center.  There’s nobody there.  It will drop for a base hit, and holding with the single is Ellis.  So anyway, I’m really up to date now on Twitter.  But I do think for all of you folks who are tweeting out there, you gotta get something TRENDING.  WHOOOOA.  So maybe we ought to get something trending about AJ Ellis.  And if you do that, you know what?  I’m cool.  I’m really cool.”

Vin Scully doesn’t even have a Twitter account, and it took all of about ten minutes for him to get Ellis (and himself) trending across both Los Angeles and the United States as a whole.

Vin got a kick out of that

They’re trending, twittering, tweeting AJ Ellis all over the US & to be honest they told me to say that. Ah, he’s a nice boy.

…and then Ellis came to the plate in the bottom of the seventh:

Manny Corpas, a veteran reliever, will now become the fourth pitcher for Chicago, facing A.J. Ellis of Twitter fame.

Manny Corpas has certainly been around. Corpas inherited fourteen runners this year; four have scored.

Manny is from Panama City in Panama. He’ll be thirty, December the third. Big man, six-three, lean, about one seventy-five and a slider hit to right center and deep. On his horse and watching it go over the wall is DeJesus.

A.J. Ellis! He’s really got something trending!

Indeed he does, but I think A.J. would be the first to agree that he’s not the star of the night. After six decades, Vin is still finding new ways to amaze us. Is there anything he can’t do?