Clayton Kershaw’s Overrated

Ha, no, not really. He’s actually a 22-year-old who after starting the season off with five consecutive starts not allowing more than three runs, threw out a total stinker yesterday. Hey, he was horrendous last night, and I’m not going to deny that. But that sort of thing happens to every pitcher now and then, and what really got me is the level of panic this raised on the internet.

SI’s Jon Heyman started us off with these two Tweets:

kershaw may be regressing faster than billingsley. not sure. close competition. #howcanbradpennybebetterthanboth?

@dodgerthoughts 1.53 WHIP coming in. not good. i dont blame him tho. just a shame hes not progressing

Tony Jackson chimed in, saying that “Kershaw’s awful outing raises issues”, and even Phil at True Blue LA, a blog which I greatly respect and link to practically every other day, titled his post ”Is Kershaw already declining?” (update: okay, I missed the joke: read here.)

But as usual, Jon Weisman at Dodger Thoughts chimed in as the voice of reason:

The last time Clayton Kershaw started but failed to get past the third inning – June 10, 2009 – this is what happened the rest of the season: 107 innings, 122 baserunners, 123 strikeouts, 1.77 ERA.

And he’s exactly right. It’s one start, people. Yes, it was one unbelievably horrific start, but I defy you to find a pitcher, no matter how great, who hasn’t tossed out a stinker like that from time to time. For example, the very first name that came to mind for me was Roy Halladay, who’s tearing up the NL right now and whom everyone wanted to see the Dodgers get last year. A quick look at his 2009 game log shows you August 24 at home against the Rays, in which he allowed 12 hits and 8 runs. (Granted, he at least made it out of the 2nd inning). Or how about C.C. Sabathia? He allowed 6 earned runs in two of his first four starts last season. Do you think anyone was frightened that they had suddenly lost it? Of course not. It’s a lousy start, and it happens to everyone.

No, what’s happening here is that the absolutely destroyed state of the Dodger rotation has put everyone on edge. Since the back end of the rotation is occupied by unheralded rookie John Ely (for now), and Rule 5 pick Carlos Monasterios (though he had to come in to relieve last night, so who knows), and that’s without even considering how unreliable Chad Billingsley is, if either Kershaw or Hiroki Kuroda has a bad start, people take it as proof that the entire rotation is doomed. And in that, they’re probably right. But it doesn’t mean that a 22-year-old kid who dominated the NL last season, and who got off to a pretty good start this year, is somehow “regressing” or “declining”, based on one start.

If there’s blame to be placed, here… well, I won’t pretend I know how to judge a pitching coach. There’s not really a stat that you can put towards it. But at what point do we start looking at Rick Honeycutt? There was a running joke all spring that whenever he’d go to the mound to give advice, the situation would immediately get worse. He hasn’t been able to fix George Sherrill, Billingsley’s been better but still inconsistent, and overall this is a club with ten pitchers who have ERAs over 5. That’s obviously not all his fault – Cy Young himself couldn’t repair Russ Ortiz, and many of those lines are in very small samples – but if you look at the one starter who is excelling this year, it’s Hiroki Kuroda… who’s 35, always good when healthy, and doesn’t really need Honeycutt’s advice. I’m not saying it’s time to make a move right now… just that if as a coach, you’re judged on the performance of your students, he’s not looking great at the moment.

In slightly better news, lets hear it for the embattled Charlie Haeger, who was probably going to lose his job once Jeff Weaver comes back this weekend. His allowing just one run over four innings saved Joe Torre from having to destroy the entire bullpen, and even if he’s not going to make it back to the rotation, having a guy like that is an invaluable piece out of the pen – especially this year.

Beware the Vagaries of the Knuckleball

Charlie Haeger’s already issued 4 walks, hit a batter, and is headed towards 80 pitches - and we’re only in the third inning as I type. Memories of his of 1312-strikeout debut have already faded away, judging by the message boards and Twittersphere.

Remember, the fates aren’t exactly aligned to help Haeger here, either. Not only is he faced up against reigning Cy Young Tim Lincecum, but Manny, Rafael Furcal, Casey Blake, and Russell Martin are all on the bench. Their backups have showed some atrocioius defense – Ronnie Belliard saw a grounder get by in the first inning that was scored a hit simply because he was too slow to get to it, A.J. Ellis threw a ball into center field, and seconds ago, Jamey Carroll just let an easy grounder get right through him.

The point is, if this ends as badly as it looks it will (and I say that about to leave the house for the day), lets take Haeger’s outing with the grain of salt it deserves. He’s a knuckleballer, and he’s your 5th starter. Compare what he did in his first outing with the kind of performances other teams get from their back end (hell, just look at Todd Wellemeyer last night for the Giants), and keep in mind that the knuckleball just doesn’t work every time out. It’s the nature of the beast.

I’m not saying this kind of performance is acceptable or ignorable; far from it. It’s just that we’ve seen the incredibly short leash Joe Torre has had with previous 5th starters (like Eric Stults), so let’s make the preemptive statement that Haeger deserves more than one lousy start before you start looking for other options, okay?

These Are Your New Dodgers

Yes, Charlie Haeger gave up 4 (3 earned) of the 6 Florida runs today by walking two and then giving up a three-run blast to Jorge Cantu. But if you think I’m going to say a single bad word about a 5th starter who struck out 12 in 6 innings, you’re absolutely wrong. In just the fifth start of his career, Haeger tied Tim Wakefield’s career high for strikeouts – and Wakefield’s had 422 starts to get that many.

Haeger’s knuckler was dancing so much that two of those strikeouts actually ended up with a man on first, as A.J. Ellis couldn’t hold onto the ball. This guy’s been a big favorite around here for quite a while now, and with Joe Torre’s propensity for yanking 5th starters at the first sign of trouble, Haeger probably needed a good first start more than any other member of the rotation.

But of course, despite 11 hits, 5 more runs, and some outstanding glovework by Ronnie Belliard, it wasn’t enough. Once again, the bullpen and defense grabbed defeat from the jaws of victory. For the pen, at least today it wasn’t “insert an Ortiz here”, or George Sherrill’s mysterious implosion, or even Torre’s total mismanagement. No, today it was the usually reliable Jeff Weaver who allowed a single, stolen base, walk and a two-run double to Cantu yet again.

Even that might not have been so bad if Matt Kemp hadn’t dropped the third out of the sixth inning, with Haeger still in the game. One base hit later, Ronny Paulino scored the 4th Marlin run.

So now the team is 2-4 headed back to Los Angeles, and while the big-time offense is a nice change, the Dodgers are looking at some serious questions. Remember when this team was built around pitching and defense, but couldn’t really hit? Yeah, me neither.

Well, That’s Enough of That

April Fool’s or not, that was about all I could take of the Juan Pierre’s Tragic Awesomeness. I don’t even have anything in particular to discuss right now, but I just need to not have a Pierre post be the first thing you see.

In far better news… Blake DeWitt and Charlie Haeger were (finally!) officially named as the starting second baseman and fifth starter, respectively, just as we’d expected. Now all I need is for news to break that Nick Green (unlikely) and Russ Ortiz (probable) will be nowhere near this team in a week, and the Dodgers will be on a nice streak of great decisions.

Live from Camelback: the Charlie Haeger Show

Fun fact about Arizona: just because it seems a little chilly in the morning doesn’t mean that it won’t be blazingly HOT at the park, though you’ll hear no complaints from this pasty easterner. Camelback’s a pretty nice setup, since the practice fields and paths back to the main park take players directly through fans.

In fact, our timing couldn’t have been better – as we walked in, half the team trotted back to take BP mere inches in front us, including Manny, Kemp, Ethier, DeWitt, Blake, Hu, & Mattingly. If I had any idea how to include pictures in a post I’m writing on my phone, I would, because Manny and his dreads look even more ridiculous close up.

After watching Hiroki Kuroda and Josh Lindblom throw bullpen sessions – and let me tell you, Lindblom’s curve in person is killer – we went to the next field over to watch everyone’s favorite drill, pitchers fielding practice. All of the main starters and relievers were there, except for Ramon Troncoso – not sure why. For what would otherwise be a tedious drill on a hot day, the gang was audibly laughing and getting on one another, yelling for laps when a ball was booted.

After catching the end of BP, destroying some sausages, and chatting with some friendly Mariners fans, it was game time. I saw Dodger exec Josh Rawitch in the crowd more than once, and though I wanted to say hi, he seemed extremely busy so I concentrated on the delicious Shock Top brew.

As for the game itself… well, I’ve seen other writers saying that one of the Ortiz catastrophes will win the 5th spot, but I just can’t see how its not Charlie Haeger. Against what was more or less the regular Mariner lineup, Haeger was dominating in allowing just 2 hits over 5 scoreless innings, including striking out the side in the first. If possible, he was even more dominating than the line shows, as hitter after hitter looked completely foolish against him.

For the second time in a row, Ramon Ortiz pitched just one inning, seemingly making it clear that he’s headed for the pen. Carlos Monasterios didn’t make it through his inning of work, and Russ Ortiz gave up a homer in his turn. Make a case for Eric Stults if you like, but there is absolutely no valid reason why retreads like the Ortizes (or Josh Towers) should be kept at the expense of losing Haeger, who’s been a favorite of this blog for a while now.

In addition to the pitching, the Dodgers looked tight. Ethier crushed a homer to center, Casey Blake had an RBI double, and even though I hate to admit it, Jamey Carroll made a fine stab at SS to start a 6-4-3 DP with Chin-Lung Hu and Ronnie Belliard.

Still, today belongs to the knuckleball… as should the 5th spot in the rotation. On to Goodyear for Dodgers @ Reds tomorrow.