Projecting the Dodgers’ Minor-League Rosters: Double-A & Triple-A

Editor’s note: Chris Jackson rounds off the minor league roster projections with Chattanooga & Albuquerque. Also, don’t forget to enter the Opening Day roster contest — open through 9pm PT tonight!

Van Slyke is one of nine outfielders who will vie for an Isotopes roster spot this spring. (Photo courtesy of the Isotopes)

Scott Van Slyke is one of nine outfielders who will vie for an Isotopes roster spot this spring. (Photo courtesy of the Isotopes)

Chattanooga Lookouts (Double-A Southern League)

Starting rotation: Onelki Garcia, Zach Lee, Aaron Miller, Rob Rasmussen, Chris Reed

All prospects, all the time, in east Tennessee this year! Garcia has the most pure stuff, but the least experience. Lee and Reed will hope their potential matches the results this season. Miller will have to fight to keep his starting spot after a middling season. Rasmussen will get some attention as the new guy in the organization.

Bulllpen: Geison Aguasviva, Steve Ames, Kelvin De La Cruz, Eric Eadington, Jordan Roberts, Andres Santiago, Chris Withrow

That is a lot of lefties, but it is hard to figure out where else to put them. De la Cruz is not a LOOGY and will give them a second long reliever to go with Santiago, who could start if Miller struggles. Aguasviva could fight his way to Albuquerque. Roberts is 27, so if he can’t stick here, his time with the Dodgers may be done. Ames and Eadington figure to share the closing job, though Withrow could see saves, too, now that the Dodgers have committed to him as a reliever. Just missed: Javier Solano

Catchers: Gorman Erickson, Christopher O’Brien

Erickson will be looking for some redemption after a lousy 2012. O’Brien was decent enough at Rancho to merit the promotion.

Infielders: 1B–J.T. Wise, 2B–Rafael Ynoa, SS–Alexis Aguilar, 3B–C.J. Retherford, UTIL–Joe Becker, Omar Luna

Wise and Ynoa have played well enough to earn promotions, but they are blocked at Albuquerque barring some trades. Aguilar is the pick I am least confident in; it could be a half-dozen other guys. In other words, please, Dodgers, sign some random Cuban defector shortstop to spare the poor fans in Chattanooga watching a guy with a career .662 OPS. Retherford had a big year at Rancho, but struggled with the Lookouts, so he will return here. Luna and Becker didn’t play a lot of shortstop last year, but they sure could this year. Just missed: Chris Jacobs 1B, Elevys Gonzalez 3B/2B, Miguel Rojas 2B/SS

Outfielders: LF–Yasiel Puig, CF–Joc Pederson, RF–Blake Smith, OF–Nick Buss, Bobby Coyle

Puig and Pederson are premium prospects. They both figure to play all three outfield spots here. Smith deserves to move up, and he certainly could, but for now I have him starting with the Lookouts. Buss and the talented but oft-injured Coyle return. Just missed: Kyle Russell

Final analysis: If some of the pitchers can translate their potential into results, then this team could be the favorite to win the Southern League. The rotation is six-deep and strong, while the bullpen is strong from both sides of the mound. The outfield should carry the offense, with shortstop being the only real concern on the infield. The Lookouts should be fun to watch this season.

Albuquerque Isotopes (Triple-A Pacific Coast League)

Starting rotation: Fabio Castro, Stephen Fife, Matt Magill, Matt Palmer, Mario Santiago

Magill is the legit prospect here. Fife returns and will be the first called up in the event of an injury to a starter in L.A. Palmer can chew up innings, but that is it. Castro was terrible last year with the A’s organization and might not last long in Albuquerque. Santiago is a gamble, with the Dodgers/Isotopes hoping he can carry over the success he found in Korea last year with the SK Wyverns.

Bullpen: Michael Antonini, Blake Johnson, Hector Nelo, Red Patterson, Paco Rodriguez, Cole St. Clair, Shawn Tolleson, Josh Wall

Antonini’s health is in question, so he might not crack this group. Rodriguez and Tolleson both deserve to pitch in the Majors, but I have Javy Guerra and Ted Lilly taking the last two spots. Johnson and St. Clair return in the long relief roles. Wall should close again. Patterson moves up, but it could easily be Ames instead. Nelo, a minor-league Rule 5 pick, gets the nod over the plethora of Triple-A vets signed this off-season. I am also betting that the veteran trio of Kevin Gregg, Mark Lowe, and Peter Moylan will opt out at the end of the spring. Just missed: Juan Abreu, Victor Garate, Gregory Infante, Wilmin Rodriguez, Luis Vasquez

Catchers: Jesus Flores, Matt Wallach

Flores could easily be subbed out for Federowicz if the Dodgers opt to have the prospect play every day and the veteran back up A.J. Ellis. Consider them interchangeable. Wallach has never hit, but he plays good defense and seems like a safe bet to the backup. Just missed: Eliezer Alfonzo, Wilkin Castillo, Ramon Castro

Infielders: 1B–Nick Evans, 2B–Elian Herrera, SS–Dee Gordon, 3B–Dallas McPherson, UTIL–Rusty Ryal, Justin Sellers

Evans always earned rave reviews for his defense, which could be a big help for Gordon’s wild throws (remember how Mark Teixeira made Derek Jeter look better back in 2009?). While it can be speculated that Gordon could or should be in the Majors, until he proves otherwise, I have him here. Sellers is another guy most people are counting out, but the Dodgers have not dumped him yet, even after his arrest in Sacramento. Herrera can, and likely will, play everywhere, but he should play almost every day. McPherson will DH against AL teams, since his back is unlikely to hold up for 144 games. Ryal gets the nod because the Isotopes need the left-handed bat. Just missed: Alfredo Amezaga UTIL, Brian Barden 3B, Ozzie Martinez SS

Outfielders: LF–Scott Van Slyke, CF–Tony Gwynn Jr., RF–Alex Castellanos, OF–Jeremy Moore

Unless Castellanos returns to the infield, this outfield is tough to figure out. Both he, Moore and Van Slyke are all right-handed hitters, so it would make a lot of sense for someone like Smith (who hits left-handed) to move up from Chattanooga. Unless the Isotopes only carry seven relievers (which, fat chance), it won’t happen unless the Dodgers move Van Slyke in a trade. Moore gets that backup spot because he can play all three positions and because the Dodgers obviously think very highly of him as he was the only free agent to participate in their prospect minicamp last month. Just missed: Matt Angle, Brian Cavazos-Galvez

Final analysis: This team does not look as talented as last year’s playoff squad, at least on paper. The rotation looks awfully suspect behind Fife and Magill. The bullpen could be good, at least. The lineup lacks left-handed bats, but should be able to score enough runs to keep games interesting. If the Dodgers can’t find any additional starting pitchers, however, it could be a long summer of 12-10 scores in Albuquerque, which this reporter is not very interested in watching anymore.

Dodgers Depth Chart Analysis: The Few, the Proud, the Southpaws

Editor’s note: Chris Jackson checks in with a look at the lefty starting pitching in the Dodger organization. Not only are there several intriguing names in here, there’s the ongoing return from perhaps my favorite under-the-radar Ned Colletti deal ever: actually getting something back for the clearly about-to-be-DFA’d Dana Eveland.  

Left-handed pitchers who can get outs are prized possessions. They are often given far more leeway than their right-handed counterparts in terms of development and staying in rotations. Command is prized over stuff, for the most part, if only due to the fact that lefties with great stuff are few and far between. Yet command is never something that one can come by easily, which is why far too many southpaws end up pitching in relief instead of remaining as starters.

Reed is one of the promising, but still unrefined, lefty pitching prospects in the Dodgers' system. (Photo courtesy of Getty Images)

Chris Reed is one of the promising, but still unrefined, lefty pitching prospects in the Dodgers’ system. (Photo courtesy of Getty Images)

Like most teams, the Dodgers have far, far more right-handed starting pitchers in their farm system. The dearth of lefties here should not come as a shock, but merely as a stark reminder of the reality of the rarity of an effective enough lefty being able to start. Though their numbers are small, there is at least some talent in this group. There may not be another Clayton Kershaw on the farm, but few teams have any lefties of that caliber developing in the minors.

This small group is highlighted by a couple of talented but vexing former high draft picks, a promising arm who has yet to pitch much, and a few overachievers hoping to sneak into the picture. Despite a lack of numbers, there is talent in this collective.

Fabio Castro: One of the few veterans signed to a minor-league deal this offseason, Castro seems destined for the Isotopes’ rotation despite a 2012 campaign he would like to forget. The 28-year-old Dominican started last season at Sacramento for the A’s, only to get raked over the coals (6.92 ERA in 51 1/3 IP) and then get sent down to Double-A Midland. In the end, he gave up 145 hits and 68 walks in 125 1/3 innings combined, racking up 14 losses. Plenty of minor-league vets have signed with the Dodgers, gone to Albuquerque, gotten blown to smithereens, and earned their release before the All-Star break. Castro is the early favorite for that auspicious status in 2013.

Aaron Miller: As mentioned earlier, Miller fits the role of “vexing ex-high draft pick” quite well. The 36th overall selection out of Baylor in 2009, Miller cost the Dodgers $889,200 and has yet to put it all together. An undiagnosed sports hernia hampered him throughout 2011. In turn, he was kept on a fairly strict pitch count at Chattanooga in 2012. He made 25 starts, but only threw 121 1/3 innings while going 6-6 with a 4.45 ERA. Though FanGraphs ranked him as the Dodgers’ No. 11 prospect, most other sites were pretty down on Miller. His once promising fastball now sits in the 89-92 mph range, though that was an improvement on the 86-90 range it sat in during most of his injury-plagued 2011 campaign. Miller has an average slider and a fringy changeup, which has led plenty to suggest the bullpen lies in his future. He figures to return to Chattanooga as a starter to open 2013, but that staff is getting crowded, so he will have to continue to earn the right to start.

Rob Rasmussen: Undersized lefties are not as rare of a commodity as undersized righties, but Rasmussen still faces an uphill battle to remain a starter. At 5-foot-9, he looks more like a middle infielder. Rasmussen was drafted in the second round in 2010 out of UCLA, where he was the No. 3 starter behind current uber prospects Gerrit Cole and Trevor Bauer. The Marlins traded him to the Astros in the ill-fated Carlos Lee swap last summer. Houston, in turn, sent him to the Dodgers in the deal for John Ely. Rassmussen ranked as high as No. 13 on FanGraphs’ list for the Dodgers. His fastball sits in the 89-92 mph range and can touch 94. He has a plus slider, but his curveball and changeup are just average at best. He went 8-11 with a 4.25 ERA between Single-A Jupiter (Marlins) and Double-A Corpus Christi (Astros) last season, so he figures to open at Chattanooga. The Dodgers will keep him as a starter as long as possible.

Chris Reed: The Dodgers’ first-round pick, No. 16 overall, in 2011 was selected as much for his signability as his talent. A closer at Stanford, the Dodgers moved him to the rotation, but the results have been mixed at best so far. With blister problems and arm soreness, coupled with a strict pitch count, Reed struggled through 70 1/3 innings with Chattanooga and Rancho Cucamonga last season. He was just 1-8 with a 3.97 ERA and 67 strikeouts. Baseball America still tabbed him as the Dodgers’ No. 6 prospect, while FanGraphs had him at No. 2. Reed’s fastball sits in the low 90s, topping out at 95 mph. His spike slider is his out pitch, but overuse is the likely culprit behind his blister problem. Reed needs to work on his changeup and/or cutter if he hopes to remain a starter. Much like Miller and Rasmussen, Reed figures to start as long as he is able to. He also figures to join those two, plus right-handers Zach Lee and Andres Santiago, in an all-prospect rotation at Chattanooga.

Onelki Garcia: The wild card among the pitchers, Garcia is as much as an international man of mystery as his Cuban position player counterpart, Yasiel Puig. Despite throwing all of two innings with Rancho Cucamonga, three playoff innings with Chattanooga, four innings in the Arizona Fall League and 10 1/3 innings in the Puerto Rican Winter League, scouts are very high on Garcia. Unable to circumvent the draft and aim for free agency like most Cuban defectors, the 23-year-old was taken in the third round of the draft last summer. His fastball runs 90-95 mph with good sink. He has a plus 12-to-6 curveball that could play out of a big-league bullpen now, but if he hopes to remain a starter, he needs to refine his changeup and slider. With a strong spring he could force his way into the crowded Chattanooga rotation, or he could end up the ace at Rancho.

Jarret Martin: The more promising of the two minor-league players the Dodgers acquired from Baltimore for Dana Eveland last year, Martin endured some ups and downs while pitching mainly for Great Lakes. Martin went 4-6 with a 4.65 ERA in 18 starts overall, including two rough outings with Rancho. He was limited to 81 1/3 innings by injuries. While he struck out 80, he also walked 51, so refining his command will be a major issue in 2013. An 18th-round pick out of Bakersfield JC in 2009, Martin has exceeded expectations so far. His fastball sits in the low 90s and can touch 95. It has some sink, which will help him in the thin, dry air at Rancho this season. He has an average curveball and a below-average changeup.

Jake Hermsen: An organizational pitcher at best, Hermsen battled his way through 12 starts at Ogden last summer. The 23-year-old was taken in the 28th round out of Northern Illinois and was thrown into the fire with the Raptors. He finished 1-6 with a 4.24 ERA, allowing 64 hits in 51 innings. Hermsen struck out 37 and walked 16. He will fight for a rotation spot with Great Lakes this spring and should have a leg up on his right-handed competition.

Miguel Sulbaran: The Venezuelan, who turns 19 in March, proved to be a pleasant surprise last summer. He went 6-3 with a 2.51 ERA in 11 starts in the Arizona League, only to find things a little rougher in one start at Ogden and two at Great Lakes. Sulbaran finished the year with a 3.82 ERA in 68 1/3 innings. He struck out 69 and only walked 14. His fastball usually sits in the 88-91 range, touching 92. He features a curveball and a slider, though odds are he’ll drop one as time goes on, and a potentially plus changeup. Despite his age, he should compete for a rotation spot with the Loons.

* * *

That wraps up the lefty starters. Lefty relievers will be bunched in with their right-handed counterparts, but the jumbo-sized right-handed starters story will come first.

Dodgers Lacking in Prime Prospect Trade Bait

Editor’s note: Hooray, four days without Dodger baseball! It’s a much-needed break. Today, we welcome back Christopher Jackson of the Albuquerque Baseball Examiner, who did such a good job providing us with an early Isotope status check in April. We talk so much about how the Dodgers have “a lot of starting pitching prospects” without actually looking into how they’re doing, so Christopher reviews how the young arms are coming along through the break. -Mike

The All-Star break is upon us. It is boring. Talking about the impending trade deadline is a lot more interesting. For better or worse, most of that trade talk deals with who the Dodgers are going to get, not how they are going to acquire those players. It takes two to tango, after all, and while some in the comments section might pop off with “just trade Jerry Sands for Justin Upton!” it is time to take a more realistic look at what the Dodgers have on the farm at midseason.

Mike did a solid analysis on the plus and minuses of trading No. 1 prospect Zach Lee already. The problem is that after Lee, things drop off fairly quickly within the organization. There is a reason that Stan Kasten and company have been said to be seeking to take on salary relief instead of giving up a lot of prospects that the organization simply does not have.

The Dodgers have a fair amount of depth in pitching, though in most cases potential will have to outweigh current performance. Most of the pitchers have at least been decent, but there are no real breakout performers. The starters at Double-A Chattanooga are heating up enough to potentially generate more interest. The position players have, by and large, struggled and few if any would bring back anything in return.

So let us break down the pitching prospects in the Dodgers system besides Lee and those prospects up with the Dodgers (e.g. Eovaldi, Van Slyke). All the rankings come from Baseball America.

No. 2 Allen Webster: This season has been a mixed bag for Webster, whose record (3-8) with Chattanooga is not really indicative of how he has pitched. His ERA (4.30) is decent and he has 73 strikeouts to 33 walks in 81 2/3 innings. The Dodgers did move him to the bullpen for five games earlier in the season, but it was temporary and he has posted a 2.25 ERA in seven starts since returning.

No. 5 Chris Reed: Last year’s first-round draft pick has gone 1-4 with a 2.52 ERA between Single-A Rancho Cucamonga and Chattanooga. He has struck out 51 in 50 innings spread over 11 starts and one relief appearance. The Dodgers have kept him on a tight pitch count as they stretch him out from college closer to future big-league starter.

No. 6 Garrett Gould: Well, we know the Astros were interested in the 20-year-old in the failed trade for Carlos Lee and the Dodgers are willing to move him. He has the usual Cal League blemishes (2-6 record, 4.96 ERA), but much like Webster, his record is deceiving. He has 77 strikeouts to 28 walks in 78 innings. Gould has arguably the best pure stuff in the system, something certain teams tend to cherish over actual results.

No. 7 Chris Withrow: The most frustrating arm in the organization is scuffling again in his fourth season with Chattanooga. He still walks too many (28 in 45 2/3 innings) and this year has had trouble staying healthy. At this point his future might lie in relief, so clubs that like to have lots of projectable relievers (looking at you, Padres) should have an interest.

No. 12 Angel Sanchez: The 22-year-old Dominican popped up out of nowhere last year and threw well at Low-A Great Lakes (8-4, 2.82, 84 Ks in 99 IP). Much like Gould, he has found the Cal League a tougher go, already allowing more hits (96) and home runs (12) than last season in 16 fewer innings. He could be ticketed for relief if his curveball does not improve.

No. 14 Scott Barlow: Last year’s sixth-round draft pick has yet to throw a pitch this season, making evaluating him fairly tough. He reportedly had Tommy John surgery recently, and may not be back at full strength until late next year or 2014, ruining any trade value he may have had.

No. 16 Aaron Miller: A sports hernia limited the southpaw to just 36 innings last season. Healthy this year, walks have been his nemesis (45 in 79 1/3 innings) with Chattanooga. His fastball velocity has dropped since he was drafted in 2009, a warning sign to most teams to stay away.

No. 17 Ethan Martin: Withrow’s rival for most perplexing has bounced back, somewhat, from a dismal 2011 campaign. He leads Chattanooga in ERA (2.99), but like Miller has been held back by walks (49 in 93 1/3 innings). Command has always been Martin’s biggest issue and despite the shiny ERA this year, it is clear he has still not turned the corner.

No. 23 Ryan O’Sullivan: The younger brother of former Royal Sean O’Sullivan, Ryan has already jumped from Great Lakes to Rancho Cucamonga this season. He has now made 15 relief appearances to nine starts, but the Dodgers view him as a potential starter down the line. O’Sullivan has a history of injuries at the college level.

No. 24 Josh Wall: The Isotopes closer has an above-average slider and a fastball he seems almost afraid to command. He coughed up three home runs in one inning in his final appearance of the first half on Sunday. If Wall could regain his confidence in his fastball he could at least be another cheap bullpen option, though he is likely a middle reliever/set-up man at the next level.

Dodgers Fill Slow News Day With Signing of Chris Reed


Here’s some good placeholder news for a night off: per Tony Jackson, the Dodgers have come to terms with their first round pick, Stanford lefty Chris Reed.

The Los Angeles Dodgers have finalized an agreement with former Stanford University left-hander Chris Reed, their first-round selection in the June amateur draft, a source with knowledge of the situation confirmed on Thursday.

Reed accepted a signing bonus of a little less than $1.6 million just four days before Monday’s deadline for signing this year’s draft picks.

The deal is expected to be announced on Friday. The agreement became official after Reed passed a physical examination on Thursday.

The Dodgers now have signed nine of their first 10 picks, the exception being fourth-rounder Ryan O’Sullivan, a right-hander out of Oklahoma City University.

Unlike last year’s fun with Zach Lee, there was never much doubt that Reed would sign, since many saw him as something of an overdraft, and there’s little chance that he would have gone back to school for his senior season and gone higher in 2012. Reed will report to Hi-A Rancho Cucamonga, which is a somewhat advanced placement for college draftees.

As Jackson notes, the Dodgers haven’t failed to sign a first round pick since Luke Hochevar in 2005; unfortunately, as you can see from the list below, they haven’t seen much from that group with the notable exception of Clayton Kershaw. It should be noted, of course, that Bryan Morris was used to acquire Manny Ramirez, so he certainly paid some dividends.

Year Rnd DT OvPck Pos WAR G W L ERA WHIP
2011 1 16 Chris Reed (minors) LHP
2010 1 28 Zach Lee (minors) RHP
2009 1s 36 *Aaron Miller (minors) LHP
2008 1 15 Ethan Martin (minors) RHP
2007 1 20 *Chris Withrow (minors) RHP
2007 1s 39 *James Adkins (minors) LHP
2006 1 7 Clayton Kershaw (minors) LHP 13.7 109 39 28 3.07 1.21
2006 1 26 *BRyan Morris (minors) RHP
2006 1s 31 *Preston Mattingly (minors) SS
2005 1s 40 *Luke Hochevar (minors) RHP 0.5 93 27 40 5.37 1.41
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 8/11/2011.

Dodgers Select LHP Chris Reed

With the 16th pick in the first round, the Dodgers have selected LHP Chris Reed from Stanford. I’m not a draft expert, and I don’t pretend to be. So here’s some pre-draft scouting reports, while we all try to learn a bit more about the newest Dodger first round pick.

MLB.com:

Reed might be the best arm few knew about heading into this year. The Stanford lefty hadn’t pitched that much prior to this season and was serving as the school’s closer. He’s got the pure stuff for the role, with a fastball that he can get up to 96 mph, sitting typically anywhere from 91 to 95 mph, with good arm-side run. He complements the plus fastball (mainly a four-seamer) with an outstanding slider, giving him enough right there to excel in short relief. But while his command is average at best, he does have the stuff — his changeup could be a plus pitch in the future as well — along with a strong, durable frame. He’s still a bit of an unknown quality, but the stuff is there, and that kind of power from the left side doesn’t often exist. At worst, the team taking him has a lefty setup man who could move quickly. But there might be more there.

ESPN:

The genius of college coaches: Chris Reed, a 6-foot-4 left-hander who sits 92-94 as a reliever with two off-speed pitches that will at least flash above-average, has made exactly one start this year for Stanford, instead working out of the pen where he’s been successful but wasted.

Reed adds a sharp, short slider in the 82-84 mph range to that fastball and will show a very hard-fading changeup in the upper 70s, throwing strikes with all three pitches but not yet showing the fastball command he’ll need to start in the big leagues. He comes from a slot just under three-quarters and repeats his delivery well enough to start, although he could stay upright longer and get more downhill plane on the fastball. Many scouts like Reed as a potential starter, and we know he can pitch in the bullpen if that doesn’t work out, but I like his chances to end up a No. 2 or 3 starter once he’s stretched out.

Jim Callis, Baseball America:

LHP Chris Reed had late helium, goes to #Dodgers here. Signability had to count, but is a LHP who shows three plus pitches.

Baseball America:

16. LAD – Chris Reed, lhp, Stanford – Athletic lefthander will get a shot to start as a pro thanks to a mid-90s fastball and 3-pitch mix

Jim Bowden at ESPN live chat:

Dodgers took Chris Reed…..was Stanfords closer…like Drew Storen, great make-up, intelligent…signable, quick to major leagues…..wipe out slider….Big physical power lefty 92-94 good change-up…nasty nasty movement….will become a starter for them…..this was a great reach down and take my guy draft by Logan White who’s history includes the drafting of Clayton Kershaw…..I love this pick here

Kevin Goldstein at ESPN live chat:

Reed is a long-armed lefty with average velocity, average breaker and good changeup. Still needs a lot of refinement, as he didn’t pitch that much until this year. Seen by many as a supplemental or 2nd round talent.

Some higher-level pitchers had fallen, and no one really thinks that Reed was the best player still available. However, we all know that the Dodgers were constricted financially here, and Reed sounds like an easy sign. Still, that doesn’t mean that’s the only reason he was selected; clearly, some of the experts like this pick, and he’s coming off an excellent spring. More later.