The first day of the Winter Meetings have been relatively quiet so far, other than the truly excellent news that the Dodgers have acquired our pal Jon Weisman for a player to be named later, giving him a limited no-trade clause.
But it’s not likely to stay that way, and the rumors are already flying. Either the Dodgers badly want David Price or they don’t, or Matt Kemp is out the door or he’s not (or not going to be healthy for camp), or the Dodgers are in with four teams on Kemp or Andre Ethier, but that definitely includes or does not include Boston, or the team is getting impatient with Juan Uribe, or they’re “lukewarm” on Masahiro Tanaka, or..
..or, well, you know. Rumors always fly this time of year, they always get people up in arms, and 90% of them lead to nothing. But we still talk about them here, because they’re fun to think about, even if nobody really has any idea what they’re talking about.
So let’s lightning round some important points here…
Yes, the Dodgers are almost certainly interested in Price. No, I don’t put a lot of stock into a Chicago radio host saying that talks are progressing. But I do know this: Dodger fans who are spitballing trade ideas at me have lost their mind if they think the Dodgers are getting price without Corey Seager. I went over the reasons why the idea of a Price trade made me uncomfortable last month, so read that for a full take, but you can’t expect the Rays to give up a better pitcher than James Shields for a lesser prospect than Wil Myers. No, Dee Gordon doesn’t count. Likelihood: 12.4%.
There’s clearly a big disconnect between the fan take and the analyst take here. Fans — the ones not incoherently calling him “soft” or “lazy,” anyway — seem to think that trading Kemp under any circumstances whatsoever is a bad idea. That’s just not true, really. You make a trade that benefits you. As I’ve said before, there’s likely not a trade out there that’s worth giving up on Kemp. But if one presents itself, then by all means, go ahead and do it. Simply put, since Kemp is still not healthy — he was in a walking boot as of three days ago, and teams may not like his medicals — it’s tough to see anyone giving up enough talent to make this anything other than a salary dump. Likelihood: 3.2%
We heard the other day that Colletti had offered Uribe’s camp several deals, and was waiting on the response, so Saxon’s report (linked above) about growing impatience passes the sniff test. Of course, we’ve been over the barren third base market a few times. Chase Headley is expensive and potentially not available. Omar Infante hasn’t played there with regularity since 2008, and is hardly appealing. No one internally is moving there, and after that, you’re left with crazy, uninformed trade speculation. Ryan Zimmerman? Sure, why not? Or Brett Lawrie, or David Wright, or Adrian Beltre, or 10 other names that are in no way realistic. Hell, why not just bring back Carlos Santana? But know this: the slowly lumbering corpse of Aramis Ramirez looms. Likelihood (of Uribe returning): 46.3% and dropping.