Projecting the Dodgers’ Minor-League Rosters: Low-A & Hi-A

Editor’s note: here’s where it gets fun. Chris Jackson predicts the minor league rosters of the top four Dodger clubs. We’ll do Great Lakes & Rancho Cucamonga today, followed by Chattanooga & Albuquerque next. Also, don’t forget to enter the Opening Day roster contest — open through 9pm PT Monday night.

After plowing through the Dodgers’ minor-league depth chart position by grueling position, now comes the fun part. Yes, it’s time to put on the prognosticator hat and do the almost-impossible: project four minor-league rosters just as pitchers and catchers are reporting to Camelback Ranch.

Dustin Nosler over at Feelin’ Kinda Blue has been doing the same thing, team by team. I agree with some of his picks, disagree with others. As I have said many times on this site and on Twitter, the Dodgers work in mysterious ways, so at best my predictions and his are nothing but educated guesses. (That’s the nice way of saying the Dodgers will make us both look foolish come April 4.)

Will Garrett Gould return to Rancho for another season? (via Dustin Nosler

Will Garrett Gould return to Rancho for another season? (via Dustin Nosler)

Great Lakes Loons (Single-A Midwest League)

Starting rotation: Ralston CashLindsey CaughelJake HermsenArismendy OzoriaRoss Stripling

Picking this rotation was toughest of all among the four full-season teams. Cash will be here if he is healthy, which is a big “if.” Caughel pitched well enough at Ogden, but there are other, higher-drafted players who could move up. Hermsen gets the nod as the token lefty, but Miguel Sulbaran will push him for the spot and probalby has more upside. Ozoria is repeating the level after a middling campaign (8-8, 4.51 ERA). Stripling has the most upside of the bunch and could skip a level to Rancho, but for now I’ll put him here. Just missed the cut: Zachary BirdCarlos FriasGustavo GomezJonathan Martinez, Miguel Sulbaran

Bullpen: Gregg DowningSawil GonzalezScott GriggsOwen JonesJoel LimaKazuki NishijimaJuan Noriega

Griggs figures to be the closer. Noriega deserved to move up but there’s no room. Downing and Nishijima weren’t great at Ogden, but there aren’t any other left-handed options. Gonzalez, Jones, and Lima are on the bubble. Just missed: Aris AngelesJharel CottonAlan GarciaJordan HershiserTravis JonesJackson MateoRicky PerezJuan RodriguezCraig StemSamuel Taveras

Catchers: Tyler OgleEric Smith

Ogle did most of his damage in the Arizona League, so he won’t end up any higher up the ladder despite his Isotopes cameo in 2012. Smith hit well at Ogden, but he also spent more time as a designated hitter than catcher, so it’s a judgment call over the guys listed here. Just missed: John CannonJose CapellanAustin Cowen, JJ Ethel

Infielders: 1B–Jesus Valdez, 2B–Malcolm Holland, SS–Corey Seager, 3B–Bladimir Franco, UTIL–Delvis MoralesJeffrey Hunt

Valdez raked at Ogden, earning the promotion. He could also see time in the outfield corners. Holland has speed and can draw a lot of walks, but his hit tool is a work in progress. He can play center field as well. Seager is one of the Dodgers’ top prospects. Franco will compete with Alex Santana for the third base gig this spring. Morales will back up the middle, Hunt the corners. Just missed: Tae-Hyeok Nam 1B, John Sgromolo 1B, Zachary Babitt 2B, Kevin Taylor 2B, Alex Santana 3B, Jesmuel Valentin SS, Justin Boudreaux UTIL

Outfielders: LF–Devin Shines, CF–James Baldwin, RF–Joseph Winker, OF–Pat Stover, DH/OF–Paul Hoenecke

Shines’ father, ex-Expo Razor, is the Loons’ manager. Baldwin repeats the level after striking out 177 times. Winker struggled as well and also repeats. Stover could force his into a starting gig. Hoenecke can also back up first base. Just missed: Nick Akins, Cory EmbreeGregory Pena

Final analysis: Seager and Stripling are the stars here, along with a slew of sleeper types such as Ogle and Holland, plus guys looking to reestablish themselves like Baldwin. This team has a chance to be much more competitive in 2013.

Rancho Cucamonga Quakes (Single-A California League)

Starting rotation: Garrett GouldJarret MartinJon Michael ReddingAngel Sanchez, Duke von Schamann

Gould pitched poorly, Sanchez pitched worse, so both have to repeat a tough level for pitchers. Redding pitched better, but there is nowhere to put him in Chattanooga’s rotation. Martin earned the promotion despite missing some time last year with an undisclosed injury. Von Schamann also probably deserves to start a level higher, but again, there is no room. Just missed: Brandon Martinez

Bullpen: Manny AcostaDaniel CoulombeJuan Dominguez, Yimi GarciaMatt SheltonSteve SmithMichael Thomas

Garcia has promise and could close, though if Dominguez gets his act together, his 100 mph fastball could put him in the ninth inning. Coulombe and Thomas offer up a decent pair of lefty arms. Shelton pitched well at Great Lakes and at 24, he needs to move up the ladder. Acosta and Smith return due to the logjam ahead of them (which yes, will be a frequent theme at multiple positions as I go through these lists). Just missed: Freddie CabreraHector CorreaThomas Melgarejo

Catchers: Pratt MaynardMichael Pericht

Maynard is a former third-round pick, but he struggled last year, so he won’t move any higher. Pericht has some pop, but otherwise is just an organizational guy.

Infielders: 1B–O’Koyea Dickson, 2B–Scott Wingo, SS–Darnell Sweeney, 3B–Jesse Bosnik, UTIL–Jesus ArredondoPedro Guerrero, DH/1B–Angelo Songco

Dickson could put up big numbers in the California League. Wingo was mediocre last year, so he figures to be stuck repeating the level. Sweeney had a solid debut and should skip a level. Bosnik struggled at Great Lakes, but he moves up now that Pedro Baez is converting to pitcher. Arredondo and Guerrero could easily be replaced by others. Songco is caught up behind other first basemen in the organization, but he will get more at-bats here since there is no designated hitter except against AL teams in Double-A. Just missed: Casio Grider

Outfielders: LF–Scott Schebler, CF–Jeremy Rathjen, RF–Jonathan Garcia, OF–Noel Cuevas

Schebler is perfectly average, but he should start ahead of Cuevas, who can play all three outfield spots. Rathjen is old enough to skip Great Lakes; he may not stay in center, but his bat is intriguing. Garcia was dreadful last year; thus, he returns.

Final analysis: Dickson, Sweeney and Rathjen will lead the position prospects, while Songco, Maynard and Garcia are the guys in search of atonement for last year’s woes. The pitching staff has experience, but not an overwhelming amount of talent. It could be a rough year in that respect in the hitter-friendly Cal League.

Dodgers Depth Chart Analysis: All is Right Among the Right-Handers

Editor’s note: Chris Jackson moves on to the righty pitching in the organization, which is probably the deepest group the Dodgers have. No, I definitely don’t miss seeing Allen Webster here. No, not at all. Not even a little. 

Right-handed starting pitching is the backbone of every organization’s depth on the mound. For all the future stars, however, there are also plenty of guys working merely as filler. The Dodgers have plenty of organizational arms who throw right-handed, along with a few legitimate stars inching closer to the big leagues and some sleepers scattered about from Double-A to rookie ball.

This is Fife. He is probably not going to be the Isotopes' right-hander that will get Dodgers' fans excited this season. (Photo courtesy of the Isotopes)

This is Stephen Fife. He is probably not going to be the Isotopes’ right-hander that will get Dodgers’ fans excited this season. (Photo courtesy of the Isotopes)

If there is a surprise this season it is in the lack of random veterans, the kind of guys used to fill out Albuquerque’s staff. So far the Dodgers have only brought into two right-handed vets and one lefty (see the entry on the not-so-fabulous Fabio Castro). It is perhaps a reflection of Triple-A vets shying away from both Albuquerque’s altitude and, even more likely, the lack of a perceived opportunity to move up to Los Angeles. The Dodgers have eight legit starters in the mix this spring, which does not make them very attractive to job-hunting journeymen.

So from the guys expected to be Isotopes to those who will stay behind in extended spring training, here are the Dodgers’ right-handed starters. Take note, to be listed here, a pitcher would need to have made over half his appearances last season as a starter. Not all are still guaranteed to start this season, and some relievers (who will be in the next post on this series) from last year might be stretched out as starters this year.

Stephen Fife: A perfectly average starter, with average stuff and average velocity, every team seems to have a few Fifes lying around. The key is that they are usually at Triple-A, only called upon for a few spot starts per season. That figures to be Fife’s role again after he went 11-7 with a 4.66 ERA with the Isotopes and 0-2 with a 2.70 in five starts with the Dodgers. He’s not a big strikeout guy — 93 in 135 1/3 innings at Albuquerque; 20 in 26 2/3 in L.A. — and he joined the short list of pitchers with a better ERA at Isotopes Park (3.68) than on the road (5.58). Barring a rash of injuries to the guys in front of him, or an injury of his own, he should be the Isotopes’ opening-day starter against the Iowa Cubs on April 4.

Matt Palmer: A 34-year-old journeyman, Palmer is the type of guy the Dodgers sign to pitch at Albuquerque just about every off-season. He has 672 2/3 career innings in the Pacific Coast League with Fresno, Salt Lake and Tucson, posting a 4.86 ERA and going 41-46 since 2008. He suffered through a fairly lousy campaign with the T-Padres last year (6-9, 5.66) and only made three relief outings in San Diego. Palmer once went 11-2 with the Angels back in 2009, but that seems eons ago. He will eat innings at Albuquerque, nothing more, nothing less.

Mario Santiago: The 28-year-old returns to the U.S. after spending 2012 with the SK Wyverns in South Korea. Santiago went 6-3 with a 3.40 ERA in 18 starts for the Wyverns, who were the runners-up to the Samsung Lions for the second year in a row in the Korea Series. Santiago has never been overpowering in his career, which stretches back to 2005 when he was a 16th-round pick by the Royals out of Baton Rouge JC. Santiago has just 458 strikeouts in 714 2/3 career minor-league innings. He only struck out 49 in 95 1/3 innings with the Wyverns last year. His only Triple-A experience came in 2011 with Omaha (Royals), when he was 3-3 with a 5.70 ERA and two saves in 19 games (four starts). He seems more likely to start than relieve for the Isotopes, barring any additional pitching signings.

Zach Lee: A little bit of the shine came off the former first-round pick after a so-so campaign between Chattanooga and Rancho. Lee went 6-6 with a 4.39 ERA, throwing 121 innings in 25 starts. He struck out 103 and walked 32. His biggest issue, according to just about every prospect report, is that he lacks a signature out pitch. This will consign him to the dust bin of … No. 3 starters. Oh, darn. Look, Lee is 21, his fastball sits between 90-95 mph and can sink and cut, he has a good slider and a potentially plus changeup. There is still plenty of time for him to develop. He will return to the Lookouts, and with a legit No. 1 (Kershaw) and No. 2 (Greinke) already on the roster, if Lee only turns out to be a No. 3, well, the Dodgers will not complain, especially when his $5.25 million signing bonus comes out to about one-fifth of Kershaw’s inevitable mega-salary.

Matt Magill: While Lee lost some luster, Magill was on helium in 2012, shooting up the prospect lists. The 23-year-old right-hander was a 31st-round pick out of Royal High School in Simi Valley back in 2008, but he sure didn’t pitch like one with the Lookouts. Magill went 11-8 with a 3.75 ERA in 26 starts, striking out a Southern League-leading 168 batters in 146 1/3 innings. Magill’s out pitch is his slider, a sharp, late-breaking pitch that sits in the low 80s. His fastball sits 91-92 with movement and has touched 95. Now comes the tough part for the guy ranked No. 9 in the Dodgers’ farm system by Baseball America — pitching at Albuquerque. There are too many guys lined up behind him to pitch in Chattanooga this year (Lee, Santiago, Chris Reed, Aaron Miller, Onelki Garcia, Rob Rasmussen) and not enough guys for the Isotopes. Magill was added to the 40-man roster, but now comes the tough part. Hopefully he can get a hold of John Ely‘s phone number.

Andres Santiago: The 23-year-old Puerto Rican has been around for a while, but he finally seemed to put things together in 2012. A 16th-round pick in 2007, Santiago broke through between Chattanooga and Rancho (6-5, 3.69, 122 Ks in 112 1/3 innings). It might not be enough to guarantee him a rotation spot to open 2013 back in Chattanooga with all the guys I listed above, but he figures to at least be a spot starter/long reliever at the outset of the season. Santiago has an 89-92 mph fastball that touches 94, a low-to-mid-80s slider and a plus changeup. He has the stuff to start, but for now I expect him to open as a reliever with the Lookouts.

Garrett Gould: The 21-year-old’s name popped up in the spotlight back in July when the Dodgers were rumored to be sending him to Houston for the corpse of Carlos Lee. This created a small furor on the internet among Dodgers fans, who mostly wanted no part of Lee but were also loathing the thought of trading an actual prospect for the aging ex-slugger. Thankfully, Lee invoked his no-trade clause, and Gould stayed put. Well, Gould probably could have used a break from Rancho Cucamonga, where he took it on the chin most of the year. Gould was 5-10 with a 5.75 ERA, allowing 140 hits and 54 walks in 130 innings. Still, the former second-round draft pick is young enough, and the Cal League is challenging enough, that no one is about to give up on him. Gould’s fastball usually sits 87-89 mph, but it’s his sinker and a plus 12-to-6 curveball that are his bread and butter. Due to the logjam ahead of him, Gould will likely open back with the Quakes and get another shot at taming the Cal League.

Brandon Martinez: A former seventh-round pick out of Fowler High School, Martinez had a season to forget. The 22-year-old finished with a 7.19 ERA at Rancho last season. He gave up 140 hits and 55 walks in just 106 1/3 innings. Martinez has some decent stuff, including a 90-94 mph fastball, a good slider and a changeup, but his command evaporated in the desert air of the Cal League. At this point, a move to the bullpen might seem more likely than subjecting him to another season of getting savaged by High-A hitters. Martinez is certainly an interesting story — he suffers from Tourette syndrome and OCD — but if he pitches again like he did in 2012, he won’t be around much longer.

Jon Michael Redding: Essentially a poor man’s Fife, Redding put together an average season at Rancho in 2012. He was 9-7 with a 4.42 ERA, striking out 102 and walking 48 in 130 1/3 innings. A former fifth-round pick out of Florida College in 2008, Redding has been around for a while without really wowing anybody. He just seems to stick on the basis of his so-so pitchability. He has a low-90s fastball, an inconsistent slider and a hard curveball. In most years, he would move up to Chattanooga, but there are far better pitchers who need to start ahead of him, and with Santiago already (likely) in the long relief/spot starter role with the Lookouts, Redding seems likely to return to Rancho for another go-around at the not-so-young age of 25.

Angel Sanchez: The 23-year-old Dominican had a rough year with the Quakes in 2012. He went 6-12 with a 6.58 ERA, allowing 157 his and 51 walks in 130 innings of work. His fastball sits in the low-90s, but it is too straight and lacks movement. He has an average changeup and a below-average curveball. The Dodgers haven’t give up on him yet, but he could easily be moved to the bullpen in 2013, where he might function better as a two-pitch guy anyway. He will return to Rancho regardless of his role this season.

Ralston Cash: The 21-year-old was the Dodgers’ second-round pick in 2010, but little has gone well since then. He injured his hip in spring training in 2011 and never threw an inning that year. Cash ended up throwing just 40 2/3 innings with Great Lakes in 2012, going 1-6 with a 6.42 ERA. He gave up 45 hits, walked 24 and struck out just 29 batters. Back when he was drafted Cash threw a 91-92 mph sinking fastball that could touch 94. He had a good curveball, an average slider and needed to work on his changeup. Now he just needs to work on getting healthy and staying healthy. He will likely do so back with the Loons to start 2013.

Gustavo Gomez: There is not much information out there on Gomez, a 21-year-old who was signed out of Panama back in 2008. He struggled at Great Lakes last year — 8-8, 5.63, 122 hits, 55 walks, 77 Ks in 110 1/3 innings — which was his first full year in a full-season league. For his career, Gomez has a 4.77 ERA and 303 strikeouts in 322 2/3 innings. He did not find the Midwest League very agreeable compared to rookie ball. His fate for 2013 is a mystery.

Arismendy Ozoria: Another Latin American who struggled in Great Lakes’ rotation, Ozoria is a 22-year-old who signed out of the Dominican in 2008. He went 8-8 with a 4.51 ERA for the Loons, with his other numbers looking an awful lot like Gomez’s numbers (115 2/3 innings, 124 hits, 50 walks, 77 Ks). Much like Gomez, he could move up to Rancho, repeat Great Lakes, or move to the bullpen with either team.

Raydel Sanchez: The 23-year-old filled the spot starter/long reliever role with Great Lakes, making 14 starts and 13 relief outings in 2012. He went 3-8 with a 4.64 ERA. He struck out 61 and walked 33 in 95 innings of work. Born in Cuba, Sanchez signed with the Dodgers as a non-drafted free agent out of Miami-Dade JC in April 2011. He could repeat his Loons role with the Quakes this season.

Duke von Schamann: The Dodgers’ 15th-round pick out of Texas Tech in last year’s draft, Von Schamann shot all the way up to Chattanooga to finish his first pro season, though it seems more likely that he will settle at Rancho in 2013. Using his sinker, slider and changeup, the 21-year-old went 6-4 with an ERA of 3.00 in 75 innings of work. He only struck out 44 batters, but he only gave up 14 walks as well. With that type of control he might just survive pitching for the Quakes.

Lindsey Caughel: Another later-round draft pick who may have overachieved a bit last summer, Caughel shined at Ogden and should move up to Great Lakes this year. The 22-year-old was a 23rd-round pick out of Stetson. He went 3-2 with a 3.38 ERA in 42 2/3 innings at Ogden, holding his own in a hitter-friendly environment. Caughel only gave up 33 hits and eight walks while striking out 29 batters. In college his fastball sat 88-91 mph and he had an average curveball. He will need more than that to succeed and keep moving up the ladder.

Carlos Frias: Signed out of the Dominican back in 2007, Frias bounced around the system in 2012. He finished the year 7-5 with a 4.73 ERA in 83 2/3 innings of work. There is not much more info out there on the 23-year-old, who just looks like roster filler in the low minors. He might move up to Great Lakes full-time this year, or he may be back with Ogden.

Luis Meza: The 22-year-old Venezuelan had a 2012 to forget, posting a 7.39 ERA in 28 innings of work. He made six starts and five relief appearances and could end up in the bullpen full-time this year, though he will almost certainly open in extended spring training.

Ross Stripling: The Dodgers’ fifth-round pick out of Texas A&M last summer, Stripling has caught the eye of scouts and prospectors alike. Baseball America pegged him as the Dodgers’ No. 10, while Keith Law had him at No. 8. A senior sign, Stripling is already 23 and could jump all the way to Rancho to open 2013, though Great Lakes might be a better place to stretch him out. He only threw 36 1/3 innings after a heavy college workload. Even in that short span he posted a 1.24 ERA, allowing just 26 hits and six walks while striking out 37 batters. He has a 92-93 mph fastball with run and sink that touches 96. He also has a plus 12-to-6 curveball, but he will need to improve his average changeup as he moves up the ladder.

Victor Araujo: A 23-year-old Dominican, he posted a 6.88 ERA in the Arizona League last summer. That’s not the type of thing that keeps one employed. Nine of his 64 hits allowed in 53 2/3 innings were home runs, which won’t play much better as he moves up the ladder, assuming he moves up at all. He will open in extended spring.

Zachary Bird: The Dodgers’ ninth-round pick last summer out of a Mississippi high school, Bird was more impressive than his numbers might indicate. Keith Law named him the Dodgers’ No. 10 prospect for 2013, as did FanGraphs. Bird had a 4.54 ERA in the Arizona League, but he did strike out 46 in 39 2/3 innings. Bird’s fastball sits 89-92 mph and touches 94. He has a good curveball, average changeup and a fringy slider that might get tossed aside as he moves up the ladder. With a strong spring the 18-year-old could force his way to Great Lakes, but Ogden seems more likely.

Jonathan Martinez: An 18-year-old who signed out of Venezuela in 2011, Martinez was impressive in the Arizona League. He went 3-0 with a 3.05 ERA, striking out 59 and walking just 16 in 59 innings of work. There isn’t much other info out there on Martinez, but if he pitches like that again this year at Ogden, there will be some buzz.

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Well, that’s it for the right-handed starters. The relievers are up next (and no, I’m not gonna review every single guy who made at least one appearance out of the bullpen in all the Dodgers’ U.S.-based affiliates). Then that should be it, but that’s OK, because Mike is on vacation (and we usually know what that means) and pretty soon there will be real baseball to talk about.

Dodgers Lacking in Prime Prospect Trade Bait

Editor’s note: Hooray, four days without Dodger baseball! It’s a much-needed break. Today, we welcome back Christopher Jackson of the Albuquerque Baseball Examiner, who did such a good job providing us with an early Isotope status check in April. We talk so much about how the Dodgers have “a lot of starting pitching prospects” without actually looking into how they’re doing, so Christopher reviews how the young arms are coming along through the break. -Mike

The All-Star break is upon us. It is boring. Talking about the impending trade deadline is a lot more interesting. For better or worse, most of that trade talk deals with who the Dodgers are going to get, not how they are going to acquire those players. It takes two to tango, after all, and while some in the comments section might pop off with “just trade Jerry Sands for Justin Upton!” it is time to take a more realistic look at what the Dodgers have on the farm at midseason.

Mike did a solid analysis on the plus and minuses of trading No. 1 prospect Zach Lee already. The problem is that after Lee, things drop off fairly quickly within the organization. There is a reason that Stan Kasten and company have been said to be seeking to take on salary relief instead of giving up a lot of prospects that the organization simply does not have.

The Dodgers have a fair amount of depth in pitching, though in most cases potential will have to outweigh current performance. Most of the pitchers have at least been decent, but there are no real breakout performers. The starters at Double-A Chattanooga are heating up enough to potentially generate more interest. The position players have, by and large, struggled and few if any would bring back anything in return.

So let us break down the pitching prospects in the Dodgers system besides Lee and those prospects up with the Dodgers (e.g. Eovaldi, Van Slyke). All the rankings come from Baseball America.

No. 2 Allen Webster: This season has been a mixed bag for Webster, whose record (3-8) with Chattanooga is not really indicative of how he has pitched. His ERA (4.30) is decent and he has 73 strikeouts to 33 walks in 81 2/3 innings. The Dodgers did move him to the bullpen for five games earlier in the season, but it was temporary and he has posted a 2.25 ERA in seven starts since returning.

No. 5 Chris Reed: Last year’s first-round draft pick has gone 1-4 with a 2.52 ERA between Single-A Rancho Cucamonga and Chattanooga. He has struck out 51 in 50 innings spread over 11 starts and one relief appearance. The Dodgers have kept him on a tight pitch count as they stretch him out from college closer to future big-league starter.

No. 6 Garrett Gould: Well, we know the Astros were interested in the 20-year-old in the failed trade for Carlos Lee and the Dodgers are willing to move him. He has the usual Cal League blemishes (2-6 record, 4.96 ERA), but much like Webster, his record is deceiving. He has 77 strikeouts to 28 walks in 78 innings. Gould has arguably the best pure stuff in the system, something certain teams tend to cherish over actual results.

No. 7 Chris Withrow: The most frustrating arm in the organization is scuffling again in his fourth season with Chattanooga. He still walks too many (28 in 45 2/3 innings) and this year has had trouble staying healthy. At this point his future might lie in relief, so clubs that like to have lots of projectable relievers (looking at you, Padres) should have an interest.

No. 12 Angel Sanchez: The 22-year-old Dominican popped up out of nowhere last year and threw well at Low-A Great Lakes (8-4, 2.82, 84 Ks in 99 IP). Much like Gould, he has found the Cal League a tougher go, already allowing more hits (96) and home runs (12) than last season in 16 fewer innings. He could be ticketed for relief if his curveball does not improve.

No. 14 Scott Barlow: Last year’s sixth-round draft pick has yet to throw a pitch this season, making evaluating him fairly tough. He reportedly had Tommy John surgery recently, and may not be back at full strength until late next year or 2014, ruining any trade value he may have had.

No. 16 Aaron Miller: A sports hernia limited the southpaw to just 36 innings last season. Healthy this year, walks have been his nemesis (45 in 79 1/3 innings) with Chattanooga. His fastball velocity has dropped since he was drafted in 2009, a warning sign to most teams to stay away.

No. 17 Ethan Martin: Withrow’s rival for most perplexing has bounced back, somewhat, from a dismal 2011 campaign. He leads Chattanooga in ERA (2.99), but like Miller has been held back by walks (49 in 93 1/3 innings). Command has always been Martin’s biggest issue and despite the shiny ERA this year, it is clear he has still not turned the corner.

No. 23 Ryan O’Sullivan: The younger brother of former Royal Sean O’Sullivan, Ryan has already jumped from Great Lakes to Rancho Cucamonga this season. He has now made 15 relief appearances to nine starts, but the Dodgers view him as a potential starter down the line. O’Sullivan has a history of injuries at the college level.

No. 24 Josh Wall: The Isotopes closer has an above-average slider and a fastball he seems almost afraid to command. He coughed up three home runs in one inning in his final appearance of the first half on Sunday. If Wall could regain his confidence in his fastball he could at least be another cheap bullpen option, though he is likely a middle reliever/set-up man at the next level.

Dodgers Embarrass Themselves On the Field, But What’s Happening Off It?

I mean, basically. I won’t hide that I’m writing this as the Dodgers are down 9-0 in the eighth inning, and if that’s not exactly how the game ends up, well, who the hell can be bothered to care at this point. Aaron Harang got shelled, R.A. Dickey cruised, and A.J. Ellis & Tony Gwynn are the only Dodgers other than Harang with hits. Shocking, I know.

This team is an absolute disaster right now, basically unwatchable. I get that they’ve lost their two big guns to injury and that’s not to be ignored, but every day it’s harder and harder to look at this club and think that they’re related in any way to the same squad that shockingly busted out to the best record in baseball up until just two weeks ago. That doesn’t mean they’re not interesting though, since the big news of the night is the rumored deal with Houston that started out supposedly involving Zach Lee & Jed Lowrie and now seems to be down to something more like Garrett Gould & Carlos Lee. (Jon Morosi notes that Gould was scratched from his scheduled start tonight just before gametime.)

I don’t like passing judgement on a deal before it’s even done and we know the specifics of exactly who is involved, but since I’ll be out of touch all day tomorrow I figure I’ll get my thoughts down on this proposal while we have the chance. I don’t love Gould, honestly, though the people who keep saying “but he’s 1-6 with a 5.12 ERA!” are misguided; he’s struck out 72 in 72 innings in the hitter-friendly California League, which gives him a 3.51 FIP. Prior to the season Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus ranked Gould as his #6 Dodger prospect, between Chris Reed & Chris Withrow, while Jason Parks of BP actually preferred Gould to Lee last month. (An opinion which I have not been able to find many supporters on, honestly.) Most see Gould as a potential #3 starter, which is valuable but clearly not untouchable.

So you want to trade Gould? Fine. In a system deep in good-but-not-great righty starters, it’s the perfect place to deal from depth, and you can lose him without too much trouble. The question would be, is Lee really worth the effort? I mean, sure, he’s better than the execrable Loney, who is just two or three more hitless plate appearances from having his OBP dip below .300. But that’s like saying that Adam Kennedy isn’t your least favorite Dodger because Juan Uribe still exists; it’s exactly not high praise to say you’re better than Loney.

Lee entered play on Saturday hitting .291/.344/.410, which is fine, I suppose. It’s an upgrade, sure, but what’s problematic is that he’s hitting far better in Houston (.286/.362/.459, all five of his homers) than he is on the road (.297/.317/.347, zero homers). I get that Loney is terrible – and he is – but importing a guy without a single homer away from the hitter-friendly Houston park seems like an odd choice to try and fix your power outage. Toss in the fact that he’s a huge defensive downgrade from Loney, important in an infield that has Dee Gordon playing every day, and while Lee might represent something of an upgrade I’m just not sure it’s worth the bother.

Again, I don’t care too much about losing Gould, and we’ll see what, if anything, actually ends up happening. If it does happen, it’s not going to be too difficult to not see Loney’s name in there every night, I’ll admit. (Though I imagine he’d need to be retained for defensive purposes.) It just seems like a deal that would be more about doing something – as I joked on Twitter, “Carlos Lee is a hitter. We need a hitter. Therefore, we need Carlos Lee” – than it is about actually finding a guy who solves the real problem.

Monday Roundup: The Law Firm of Miles, Wade, Loney & Gould

I was a little off the grid this weekend thanks to a wedding and other family commitments, and there’s so much going on right now that I could probably write six different posts about it. In the interest of expediency, let’s try to hit as much as of it as I can right here.

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ESPN’s Molly Knight brings us news that’s relevant to the only thing more important than winning baseball games: being rid of Frank McCourt. But this isn’t the usual business about Frank’s court fight with Jamie, or even about his fight with Bud Selig and MLB. This story has a quite unexpected hero: Manny Ramirez.

We’ve long known that the Dodgers owe Manny a nice chunk of deferred salary both this year and in years to come, but what’s noteworthy here is the amount and the timing: the Dodgers owe Manny a full payment of $8.33m by June 30.

Here’s how Knight lays out the June responsibilities:

$9ish million for June 15, $9ish for June 30, $8.33 for Manny.

Remember, every two weeks we’ve been wondering if McCourt would make payroll. He had to borrow from sponsors to meet the May 30 payroll, and while he’s reportedly ready to make the June 15 bill, that’s yet to be confirmed. Manny’s bill is essentially a third payroll responsibility for June, and it’s anyone’s guess where McCourt thinks he’s going to come up with that kind of money.

Imagine if, after all of the garbage spewed at Manny (much of it deserved, but certainly not all) by the media and some fans, that he was the one who finally sank Frank McCourt? I’d start measuring him for a statue, if that’s the case.

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The Rays have released ex-Dodger Cory Wade from their AAA affiliate in Durham, NC. (They also added ex-Dodger Lance Cormier to Durham, which, ha.) Wade was released not because of his performance, which has been excellent in Durham, but because of a logjam in the Tampa bullpen – and because Wade had a June 15th opt-out.

You probably remember that Wade was a surprisingly effective reliever for the 2008 Dodgers, before spending most of the next two years being injured and ineffective. (You can probably search the archives here and find reference to me pinning that blame on his overuse by Joe Torre in 2008.) After shoulder surgery last season, he was quietly signed to a minor-league deal by Tampa this winter… and he’s been very good. In 36.2 AAA innings, he’s allowed just five earned runs with a 34/6 K/BB, and Rays fans aren’t happy that he was let go.

Wade is a 28-year-old relief pitcher and while he’s no longer a “prospect”, he looked like a player that could help in the Rays’ bullpen this season. After having shoulder surgery last season, Wade was doing very well in Triple-A this year, striking out 8.4 batters per nine, while walking a miniscule 1.5 batters per nine. He’d allowed four homeruns over his 36 innings pitched, but still, he had a 1.23 ERA and 3.34 FIP — he was darn good. Not only that, but Wade had frequently worked two innings at a time, making him a prime candidate to serve as a long man for the Rays.

I’m beginning to wonder what sort of compromising pictures Andy Sonnanstine must have in his possession in order to stick on the roster instead of Wade. Sonnanstine is getting lit up every time he takes the mound, posting a 6.06 ERA and 7.52 FIP, and he simply doesn’t look like a major-league caliber pitcher anymore.

Why, Friedman, why? Do you enjoy subjecting your fans to the horrors of watching Sonny pitch? Are you afraid of those pictures from the playoff celebration last year getting out? Because man, I would have liked to see Cory Wade get a shot.

Other than Sonnanstine, the Rays bullpen has been effective, so the fact that he couldn’t get a shot isn’t a black mark against Wade. (As for Sonnanstine, Tampa has been overly devoted to him for some time, and Rays fans and bloggers have been bemoaning his roster spot for months.)

So getting to the obvious question – why shouldn’t the Dodgers go and try to give him a shot? I’m sure that he won’t be unemployed for long, so I’m sure he’ll end up in the big leagues soon for someone, and why not the Dodgers? It’s not like it’d be hard to make room in the bullpen. Matt Guerrier and Blake Hawksworth aren’t going anywhere, but Ramon Troncoso, Josh Lindblom, Scott Elbert and Javy Guerra all have minor-league options, and Elbert & Troncoso just got lit up in Colorado. There’s also Mike MacDougal, who would have to be DFA’d, but who has done nothing to live up to his shiny 2.01 ERA.

(Update: Wade signed with the Yankees. Of course he did. Oh well.)

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James Loney‘s grand slam over the weekend in Colorado was his second career salami, with the previous one… also coming in Colorado. This isn’t the first time I’ve noted his brutal home/road splits (or the second… or the third…), but the success he’s found in Denver is particularly noteworthy.

I Split PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS
LAD-Dodger Stad 1316 119 313 55 6 20 171 112 167 .265 .327 .372 .699
COL-Coors Fld 178 26 53 12 1 8 49 14 18 .325 .376 .558 .935
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 6/13/2011.

I’ll be the first to tell you hitting is about more than just home runs, but of all the numbers there, that’s what stands out to me the most. Loney has more than seven times as many plate appearances in Dodger Stadium than he does in Coors Field… and just barely more than twice as many homers. Dating back to last season, three of Loney’s last five homers have come in Colorado, and even one of the others, against Jason Hammel on May 30, came against the Rockies, though at home. (The fifth came against Florida’s Javier Vazquez, possibly the worst starting pitcher in baseball right now.) When Loney gets non-tendered, as we all believe he will, just wait for the Rockies to snap him up. It’s not a perfect fit, since Todd Helton is also a lefty and having a great season, but Helton’s going to be 38 next year – and the Rockies have found a way to squeeze lefty first baseman Jason Giambi onto the roster this year anyway. I look forward to the day when Loney is both not a Dodger and tormenting us from afar.

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In the comments yesterday, I made an off-hand remark that Aaron Miles has the emptiest .300 average in team history, and it’s true. He never walks, and he hits for no power whatsoever. That’s why his OPS is a subpar .658. I didn’t say that meaning to bash Miles, but that upset a lot of people who felt I wasn’t giving Miles enough credit. So let me clear that up by saying Miles has been far more than I’d ever expected. His .300 may not be indicative of much by itself, but it’s about 150 points higher than I thought he’d give us. When I give out midseason grades next month, he’s almost certainly going to get a B+ or higher. As a multipositional, switch-hitting backup, he’s been something of a pleasant surprise. You’ll notice that I haven’t been making calls to have him DFA’d or replaced.

The problem here, which is not on Miles, is that he’s not serving as the 5th or 6th infielder. Due to the rash of injuries, he’s been an everyday starter. His 190 PA is fifth most on the team, behind Matt Kemp, Andre Ethier, Loney, and Jamey Carroll. An empty .300 from a bench player is great, but it’s a problem from a starter. Again, that’s not on Miles; he didn’t create the injury situation, and all he’s done is help fill the holes while playing better than expected. That also doesn’t mean he’s someone we should want to see every night.

Tony Jackson of ESPNLA looked at the infield situation recently, and his takeaway was while Don Mattingly seemingly prefers Juan Uribe and Casey Blake to play every day at 2B and 3B around Loney and Dee Gordon, that Carroll and Miles have outplayed the two enough that they should be playing everyday at 2B and 3B. Jackson’s argument is that Blake & Uribe get preferred treatment because of their salaries, and he’s probably not far off there.

I understand where he’s coming from – after all, I’ve been saying for two years that counting on Blake to be an everyday player this year was a mistake and that the Uribe contract was a terrible idea – but I can’t say I totally agree, and that’s partly because I’m more focused on the future than the present.

Here’s my optimal infield, with the pieces around right now. At first base, Loney and Blake split time. Blake sees all lefties and half of all home starts; Loney gets to bat in all nine positions the next time the Dodgers go to Colorado. At second base, Carroll needs to be the nearly full-time starter if only for his on-base skills, with Miles starting twice a week to get him time and keep Carroll fresh. Gordon is certainly going to play most days at short, though Uribe or Carroll can spot there now and then, and Uribe should play most days at third, with Blake or Miles getting a start or two a week there. I say this because even though I have little faith in Uribe being worth the value of his contract, the fact is that he’s here for 2.5 more years and it’s too soon to give up on that. Besides, he can’t always be this bad. Right?

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News on two Dodger prospects from Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus:

Garrett Gould, RHP, Dodgers (Low-A Great Lakes)
A second-round pick in 2009, Gould had a so-so 4.09 ERA in the Pioneer League last year. When scouts saw him, all they could really talk about was projection, as while the skinny 6-foot-4 righty oozed it, his right-now stuff left plenty to be desired. That projection is starting to come through; what was once an upper-80s fastball is now in the lower 90s, and he is maintaining his good control and a very good curveball. He’s looking like one of the best arms in the Midwest League after reeling off back-to-back starts without allowing an earned run. Consistency is a word rarely used in Low-A, but with a 1.55 ERA in 12 starts, in which he has never allowed more than two earned runs, Gould has been just that and maturing.

Trayvon Robinson, OF, Dodgers (Triple-A Albuquerque)
Over the past six weeks, we learned that hitting in Chavez Ravine is very different from hitting in Albuquerque. Just ask Jerry Sands. Still, is it time for Robinson to get the next chance? With a home run on Friday, a double and two walks on Saturday, and five hits on Sunday, he’s now batting .299/.357/.543 in 58 games, and while he might not have Sands’ pure bat, he his speed and ability to play all three outfield slots offers more lineup flexibility. Robinson still struggles against lefties (which is all Sands could hit), so there would be a different dynamic in play, but when Tony Gwynn Jr. is on pace for nearly 300 plate appearances, there has to be a better way.

Gould is someone we’ve never heard all that much about, obscured as he’s been by the Zach Lee / Chris Withrow / Allen Webster types, so it’s good to see some positive news there. We’ve heard plenty about Robinson and I’ve contemplated making a “when will he arrive?” post for a few weeks now. If the Dodgers have surprised at all this year, it’s in that they’ve promoted prospects like Jerry Sands, Rubby De La Rosa, and Dee Gordon far sooner than we’d expected. Robinson’s probably not completely ready yet – a 67/19 K/BB mark at AAA isn’t something I’m dying to add to the lineup – but as Goldstein notes, the production is there and Gwynn (and Trent Oeltjen, and Marcus Thames) are clearly not the answer in left. I’ll say Robinson doesn’t get the call in June, but I could see it any time after Independence Day.