Category Archives: Hanley Ramirez

Dodgers Depth Chart Analysis: Coming up Short at Shortstop

Posted on by Leave a reply

Egads, shortstop. The one position I have been dreading writing on since I conceived of this multi-part project earlier this month. It is one of the toughest positions to fill at the minor-league level, chock full of athletes with a variety of issues that will probably keep them from ever attaining the status of everyday player at the big-league level. Many shortstops in the minors end up playing second, or becoming utility guys, or just disappearing into the netherworld of the Quad-A player who bounces from team to team, city to city.

Will Dee ever translate his speed and other tools into being a solid, stable, big-league shortstop? (Photo courtesy of the Albuquerque Isotopes)

Will Dee Gordon ever translate his speed and other tools into being a solid, stable, big-league shortstop? (Photo courtesy of the Albuquerque Isotopes)

Even going to Asia is usually not an option for these guys, as Japanese and Korean teams almost universally keep domestic players at all the up-the-middle positions. The life of a vagabond minor-league shortstop is a lonely one, usually without much pay and even less stability. Still, teams have to fill out their full-season rosters, so someone has to play there.

For that, teams usually prize defense at an average level when seeking out shortstops for their Single-A through Triple-A teams. Guys who can swing a bat, too, usually do not stay in the minors long. A total of 13 MLB teams last season employed a foreign-born player at shortstop for the majority of the season. The American-born shortstop is often referred to as an endangered species, but in truth they still constituted the majority last season.

Nonetheless, the elite shortstop is a prize possession. Just ask anybody who plays fantasy baseball, the good ones go fast in the draft, even though there might be outfielders, first basemen, and pitchers who offer up more statistical value.

The Dodgers, with their lack of international spending, are not surprisingly quite short at shortstop down on the farm. Things are so thin that right now there is no obvious starter at Double-A Chattanooga after Jake Lemmerman was traded to the Cardinals for Skip Schumaker.

So read on for what little there is down on the Dodgers’ farm at the upper levels, while taking note of some talent forming up in the lower levels.

Dee Gordon: Pretty much everybody knows Gordon’s pluses and minuses. He can make the spectacular play with his tremendous range and cannon arm … but he often botches the routine play. He has game-changing speed … but does not hit much at all and he can’t take a walk to get on base. Plenty has been written about his transition from basketball to baseball as a teenager, his raw tools, his baseball bloodlines, etc. The Dodgers have had the opportunity to trade him, but for now it looks like he’s staying put, though it seems almost certain he opens with the Isotopes barring an injury to Hanley Ramirez or the complete implosion of Luis Cruz.

Justin Sellers: In a perfect world, Sellers would be the Dodgers’ late-inning defensive replacement, a slick fielder with a good, accurate arm but not much of a bat. The Dodgers, though, under Ned Colletti, have shied away from handing such responsibilities to young players, instead acquiring the Nick Puntos of the world. Sellers is clinging to a 40-man roster spot by the skin of his teeth, and he could get bumped off should someone else get signed to a big-league deal or one of the non-roster invitees forces his way to Los Angeles. For now, Sellers projects to serve as a utility player at Albuquerque, on tap for a call-up in the event of an injury to someone on the bench or a short-term injury to someone like Ramirez, Cruz or Mark Ellis.

Osvaldo Martinez: The Dodgers acquired him from the White Sox last summer for depth purposes. He is not on the 40-man but opted to stay with Los Angeles this off-season. Martinez hit .255/.296/.275 in 102 at-bats with the Isotopes and just .203/.246/.244 overall last year. He was once a high-average hitter with some speed but little pop, earning him the lofty status of being Baseball America’s No. 5 Marlins prospect after the 2010 season. Now he just seems to be a good glove off the bench, searching for the swing that left him. With plenty of other middle infield types in the mix for an Isotopes roster spot, Martinez is not guaranteed to still be with the organization come April.

Alfredo Amezaga: The ex-Marlin has returned to the Dodgers organization after playing in one game with Chattanooga in 2010 before missing the rest of the season due to problems with his surgically-repaired knee. A super utility player, Amezaga can play second, short, third, and the outfield. He will compete for a bench spot with Albuquerque after hitting .274/.336/.372 with six home runs, 42 RBI, and 12 stolen bases at Iowa (Cubs) last year.

Miguel Rojas: Another free-agent signee, the soon-to-be 24-year-old comes over from the Reds organization where he hit just .199/.263/.224 between Triple-A Louisville and Double-A Pensacola last season. He has played the vast majority of his career (460 games) at shortstop with a reputation as a decent defender who simply cannot hit (.234/.301/.282 career). Yet with so few options, the Dodgers might not have much choice but start him at Chattanooga. One would have to hope that the organization takes a long look at Cuban defector Aledmys Diaz, who is a free agent, and could slot in nicely with the Lookouts.

Alexis Aguilar: One of the Three Shortstops of the Apocalypse at Rancho Cucamonga last year, the 21-year-old Venezuelan hit an unimpressive .255/.301/.313 with one home run and 15 RBI for the Quakes. With Charlie Mirabal (.191/.240/.245) having been released, Aguilar figures to get a shot at moving up to Chattanooga by default and competing with Rojas for the Lookouts’ starting gig. Fans in Southeastern Tennessee might want to close their eyes for the season. Aguilar has played 126 games at shortstop, 50 at second base and 24 at third base in his career, so at worst he is a utility player with average defensive skills.

Casio Grider: The final member of the aforementioned TSA at RC, Grider hit a dismal .217/.286/.329 with two home runs and 11 RBI. At 25, he is getting awfully old for what he is, basically a utility player who spent more time at shortstop last year than second base, his previous position. Grider was a 14th-round pick out of Newberry College in 2009, marking him as purely an organizational player who hopes to move up to Double-A and keep his career going at least one more season.

Darnell Sweeney: Caution, this young man might actually have a future beyond the minors. A nice sleeper pick, the Dodgers selected him in the 13th round of last year’s draft out of Central Florida. Sweeney responded by hitting .294/.374/.430 with five home runs, 33 RBI and 27 stolen bases between Great Lakes and Ogden. John Sickels ranked him No. 18 among Dodgers’ prospects over at Minor League Ball. Dustin Nosler had him one spot higher at No. 17 on his list at Feelin’ Kinda Blue. Keep a close eye on Sweeney’s development, which will likely continue this year at Rancho Cucamonga. He lived up to expectations defensively, but keeping up his lofty debut hitting stats will be the challenge as he faces more advanced pitching.

Pedro Guerrero, Justin Boudreaux, Delvis Morales: Meet the trio of utility guys who actually appeared in more games at shortstop than other positions in 2012. Guerrero, no relation to the former Dodger, hit .220/.265/.387 with 10 home runs. He is a 24-year-old Dominican with no previous showing of any power (career .361 slugging). Boudreaux was the Dodgers’ 14th-round pick out of Southeastern Louisiana in 2011; he hit .201/.304/.312 with three homers and 36 RBI last year. Morales is a 22-year-old Dominican who hit .261/.341/.328 with zero homers, 23 RBI and 12 stolen bases. They will battle for bench spots at Rancho and Great Lakes.

Corey Seager: The crown jewel of Dodgers minor-league infielders, Seager may seem destined for third base but I will list him as a shortstop until the day he stops playing there. The 2012 first-round draft pick is one of the organization’s top prospects, ranking as high as No. 2 (Minor League Ball) on the preseason lists. Seager hit an impressive .309/.383/.520 with eight homers and 33 RBI at Ogden, going up against mostly older competition. The younger brother of Mariners third baseman Kyle Seager, Corey should move up to Great Lakes. At 6-3, 195, he is built like a third baseman, but there is always the chance he sticks at shortstop, with a big-league ETA of 2015 or 2016, at which point he could fill a major hole for the Dodgers.

Jesmuel Valentin: The son of former Dodger Jose Valentin, Jesmuel was drafted in the supplemental first round last summer. He showed decent, if not great, defensive skills in the Arizona League, while batting .211/.352/.316 with two homers and 18 RBI. Valentin’s bat has a ways to go, though the fact he drew 35 walks versus 24 strikeouts is encouraging. FanGraphs ranked him as the Dodgers’ No. 5 prospect, though most other lists put him in the 12-13 range. He could end up at second base or in a utility role down the line, but the Dodgers will try to keep him at shortstop as long as possible, hoping his bat develops and defense solidifies at shortstop. Valentin should hang back in extended spring training until Ogden’s season starts in late June.

So that wraps up shortstop, which is bleak at the top and somewhat promising down below. There are no guarantees for the Dodgers, much less any other team, but in Seager, Sweeney, and Valentin, at least there are some options coming along. The key to the present will likely be in whether or not Gordon can ever refine his tools, while one of the three of Seager/Sweeney/Valentin develops into a long-range replacement.

Next up, third base, where the hot corner is barely even spitting out a wisp of smoke.

I Guess Someone Has To Hit Leadoff, Don’t They?

Posted on by Leave a reply

hanley_on_baseI’ve been trying to avoid this topic for a while, simply because it’s so frustrating, but… at some point, we’re going to have to seriously talk about who’s going to hit leadoff for the Dodgers in 2013, right? It’s that seemingly unanswerable question which made all the “hey, let’s trade Andre Ethier and sign Michael Bourn!” rosterbation seem so appealing, even though the extreme amount of moving pieces made it difficult to see happening.

While Bourn hasn’t yet signed, it’s less likely than ever that he’s really going to land with the Dodgers, so the solution is almost certainly going to have to come internally. “Solution” is probably not even the right word, because there’s really no right answer here. Last season’s Dodger leadoff men hit a mere .226/.281/.302, barely ahead of Cincinnati for the worst in the bigs, and while that was largely due to the failures of Dee Gordon, it’s not like Shane Victorino, Tony Gwynn, or Mark Ellis — each of whom started at least 20 times at the top — did much to contribute either.

There’s no shortage of reasons why the 2012 Dodger offense seemed to continually sputter, be it injuries or lack of “gelling” or whatever else you want to attribute it to, but it’s impossible to ignore the simple fact that the top of the order failed at their singular goal, which was to simply get on base. Unfortunately, none of the various moves the Dodgers have made since then have come close to solving this problem.

Or as Don Mattingly said to Ken Gurnick yesterday…

“Not having a true leadoff guy,” he said, “we’ll have to work on that in the spring. Mark Ellis was really good against lefties. Skip Schumaker, Nick Punto. There are different combinations we could hit on top.”

…so you can see how bad of a situation this is.

Ideally, you’d have a leadoff hitter who can get on base regularly and be a plus on the bases after doing so. The Dodgers would settle for someone who could be even passable at doing just one of those things, but that’s easier said than done. Either way, let’s be honest with ourselves and admit that Mattingly values speed at the top more than anything else; after all, it’s the only possible reason to let Gordon lead off so many times.

Let’s start with the process of elimination, shall we? Ethier, Adrian Gonzalez, & Luis Cruz clearly aren’t going to hit atop the order, nor should they. Neither will Matt Kemp, though I bet I could make an interesting case that it’d be fun to have his on-base skills and speed there, nor sadly will A.J. Ellis, simply because we’ve gone over that one a billion times and Mattingly just would never let it happen.

As for Carl Crawford, he’d like you to know that reports that he doesn’t like hitting leadoff are false:

Mattingly said Crawford is willing to bat in the No. 1 spot, even though there is a generally accepted belief in the game that Crawford prefers the No. 2 hole.

“He said he didn’t know where that came from,” the manager said. “He said he heard that on ESPN. He said he would do whatever we want him to do. That said, he’s had his most success in the two-hole.”

Even so, he hasn’t done it regularly since 2005 and even if he could hit lefty pitching, he can’t be counted on to play every day or to contribute until he proves otherwise. Though I could see him being a very imperfect fix to a large hole, he’s much more likely to hit second.

That leaves Mark Ellis, who will be 36 in June and hit an abysmal .228/.313/.299 against righties last year… and Hanley Ramirez, who spent his time with the Dodgers hitting 4th & 5th. Ramirez was once a star leadoff man for the Marlins, starting 403 games there (second-most behind 415 starts hitting third), but he hasn’t done so on a regular basis since 2008 and that leads to some misleading splits. “But he has a career .309/.385/.536 line leading off!”, people like to say. Well, sure. But that was the young Ramirez, the one stealing 50 bases a season and challenging for batting titles.

vs LHP?
vs RHP?
SS
 Ramirez
SS
Ramirez
2B
 M.Ellis
LF
Crawford
CF
 Kemp
CF
Kemp
1B
 Gonzalez
1B
Gonzalez
LF
Hairston?
RF
Ethier
3B
 Cruz
3B
Cruz
RF
 NOT Ethier
2B
Skip?
C
 A.Ellis
C
A.Ellis
P
—-
P
—-

The current Hanley doesn’t run like that, and he certainly doesn’t hit like that; though he retains good power for a middle infielder, he’s coming off a career-low walk rate and a career-high strikeout rate — hardly what you want to see from your leadoff man, and his .326 OBP over the last two seasons doesn’t exactly inspire confidence.

Still, .326 looks pretty good when compared to what we saw last year, and while Ramirez isn’t going to steal 51 bases again, he’s hardly lead-footed, either. So I’ll take Hanley as a flawed, though acceptable solution. But that causes another problem, if you look to the prospective lineups at right: by taking Ramirez out of the middle of the lineup, things get a bit thin behind Kemp & Gonzalez. (For the purpose of this conversation, I’m showing LF & 2B as strict platoons, though I doubt either will really be that way in practice.)

That’s perhaps not such a big deal against righties, where Ethier fits nicely into the #5 hole — though I did enjoy seeing him hit #2 there late last year — but it really does expose how vulnerable the team could be against lefties, especially in the corner outfield. That’s not news, of course, but the lack of a righty alternative for Ethier is still such a glaring hole that this winter just can’t be considered complete until something is done there — and the options are dwindling.

I don’t think anyone would say they don’t prefer this lineup over the one that prepared to head into last season featuring Gordon, James Loney, Juan Uribe, & Juan Rivera. Still, this is a lineup that has more than a few questions marks, beginning right at the top. If you can’t sort that out, everything else is at a disadvantage.

Fixing the Left Side of the Dodger Infield With Defense

Posted on by Leave a reply

I think we can all agree that though the big moves have already been made, the 2013 Dodgers still have some spots to fill. They need a righty bench outfielder, someone who can back up first base — maybe that’s the same player — and perhaps a lefty reliever. Those moves will come in time, but none of them are my biggest concern about the roster we’re currently looking at. No, that’d be the unpleasant proposition of starting the season with Hanley Ramirez at shortstop and Luis Cruz at third base, which seems to be both an inefficient use of existing assets (defense demands they be swapped) and simply scary from a depth perspective, given Cruz’ lack of a successful track record.

This isn’t news, of course. We’ve been discussing exactly this for months, but with the SS/3B market completely barren — what, you really wanted Michael Young or Placido Polanco? — and the few teams that actually have talent on the left side being generally unwilling to move them for anything less than exorbitant fees, we’ve sadly come to realize that a big move to fix this problem is unlikely. Notice that Mike Olt & Elvis Andrus & Jurickson Profar are all still in Texas? It’s because no one is willing to meet the astronomic prices the Rangers want, even with the tempting prospect of Justin Upton out there for them. And even if the Rangers are willing to trade any of those players, it won’t be the Dodgers who have the best pieces available to get them.

What that means for us is that the Dodgers are now in a situation where there was little available here at the start of the offseason, even less when the Mets retained David Wright and Boston signed Stephen Drew, and all but nothing left now that the carcass of the market has been picked clean. Hell, the Diamondbacks traded Trevor Bauer for a shortstop from Ohio and didn’t even get themselves Asdrubal Cabrera, landing only prospect Didi Gregorius, who many think won’t hit enough to stick at the big-league level.

So there’s no offense out there to be had, and no, don’t waste your time trying to come up with convoluted trade scenarios to get Chase Headley out of San Diego. Yet I can’t be satisfied with that, so I’m trying to look at the problem in a different way.

When we say that “the market is barren” we tend to look at it from an offensive point of view. Polanco is 37 and had a .302 OBP last year. Young is 36 and coming off a .312 mark. Yunel Escobar had only a .300 OBP and is a notorious jerk. The market’s in such a spot that even players who are deeply flawed but still provide some small amount of value are going for shockingly high prices, as you can tell by the $12m the declining Kevin Youkilis got for one year (which I probably would have swallowed hard to accept if it were with the Dodgers) and the two-year deal Jack Hannahan (.312 OBP) got from the Reds weeks after being non-tendered by the Indians.

So, fine, offense wasn’t there to begin with and it’s not there now. But what if we looked at this from a perspective of simply improving the defense? It’s not as sexy, but preventing runs is just as important as scoring them. Sure, simply swapping Ramirez & Cruz would be a great start, but the team seems hesitant to do so. What if we could do better?

Ryan & Hardy. How convenient! (via Keith Allison

Ryan & Hardy. How convenient! (via Keith Allison)

Let’s take a look at the top rated defensive shortstops from 2012 (min 400 PA) as ranked by FanGraphs UZR/150:

1) Brendan Ryan 17.1
2) Clint Barmes 15.3
3) J.J. Hardy 10.1

That’s a good start, but as we know, one year isn’t really enough of a sample size for defensive metrics, so let’s look at this over the last two years…

1) Clint Barmes 13.3
2) Brendan Ryan 13.2
3) Jhonny Peralta 11.1

and the last three…

1) Brendan Ryan 12.8
2) J.J. Hardy 11.1
3) Jhonny Peralta 9.5

Yeah, I know. Fielding metrics are improving but still imperfect, and the repeated appearance of Peralta on that list might be evidence enough of that. Still, I don’t think anyone would argue the fact that Ryan and Hardy pass the sniff test as two of the best defensive shortstops in the game, and pairing either with Mark Ellis up the middle would make for potentially the slickest-fielding middle infield around, one that any pitcher would love to play in front of. (Remember this conversation when we’re watching balls fly past Ramirez and Skip Schumaker in June, by the way.)

As expected, their outstanding gloves come at a price, since each finished in the bottom 20 by wOBA of all batters with at least 450 plate appearances last year. Ryan actually finished dead last thanks to an unfathomable .194/.277/.278 line that is cover-your-eyes bad, though his fielding ranked so highly that he was still worth nearly two wins. Hardy has excellent power for a shortstop, bashing 52 homers in his two years in Baltimore, but at the cost of a .282 OBP; still, he’s been worth nearly eight wins with the Orioles in 2011-12.

These guys are flawed enough that I can’t say I’d be willing to part with a ton to get either, but it’s also not that hard to see a trade fit simply because of the rotation depth the Dodgers have to shed. Baltimore has young star Manny Machado ready to take over at shortstop and a rotation that went through 12 starters last year. For a team currently planning to throw out Jason Hammel, Wei-Yin Chen, Chris Tillman, Miguel Gonzalez, & Zach Britton, might it not be preferable to shed Hardy’s remaining 2/$14m, add a Chris Capuano or Aaron Harang to solidify the rotation, and avoid overpaying a Kyle Lohse or Joe Saunders in the market?

Seattle doesn’t have an immediate replacement for the arbitration-eligible Ryan, but they’re also not expected to contend in the tough AL West and they do have a good infield prospect in Nick Franklin potentially ready to make his debut sometime in 2013. After trading away Jason Vargas for Kendrys Morales, they have some sort of grab bag of Hisashi Iwakuma, Erasmo Ramirez, Blake Beavan, & Hector Noesi lined up behind Felix Hernandez, so Capuano or Harang would be a fit there as well. (Go ahead, contort yourself into expanding this to send Andre Ethier to Seattle, but know that Kyle Seager isn’t coming back, Ryan alone doesn’t even scrape the surface of being enough of a return unless you get into good pitching prospects like Danny Hultzen or James Paxton, and that with Nick Swisher gone, this only makes sense for the Dodgers if Michael Bourn is the next target.)

The obvious retort to all of this is, “well, Cruz was hardly a problem with the glove and showed some life in his bat in the final six weeks, so why not give him a chance instead of trading for someone else.” But I don’t see Cruz as being equal with the glove to either Ryan or Hardy, and he doesn’t have the pop that Hardy has shown. Besides, it’s not just about Cruz, as I’ve argued in the past. Getting Ramirez off of shortstop is the most important part here, and for whatever reason, Cruz doesn’t have the weight to do so. Making a move for Hardy or Ryan might.

Furthermore, moving Cruz from “starting third baseman” to “utility infielder at second, third, & short” would push Nick Punto or Juan Uribe (or, preferred deity willing, both) off the team, and that improves the overall strength of the roster as well as providing insurance in case he turns back into a pumpkin. If we’re all wrong, and he hits the way some are convinced that he can, then by all means put him back in the lineup and send me a giant pile of crow to eat.

For a team that’s so wildly expensive and built to win now, a left side of Ramirez at short and Cruz at third is no way to enter a season. There may not be any offensive upgrades available, but perhaps defensive improvement that could benefit the entire pitching staff would be just as good.

2012 Dodgers in Review #10: SS Hanley Ramirez

Posted on by Leave a reply

(w/ LA) .271/.324/.450 272pa 10hr 1.4 fWAR B+

2012 in brief: Surprising trade from Miami kicked off the midseason roster reconstruction and provided an immediate power boost, though not without a severe September slump.

2013 status: Will make $15.5m, but will he play shortstop or third base?

******

I think that for most of the trades that came down this season, we had something of an idea about them. Sure, no one predicted the exact circumstances of the Boston trade, but we’d heard rumors about Adrian Gonzalez before August. When Brandon League & Shane Victorino arrived on deadline day, well, everyone knew the Dodgers were after help in the bullpen & the outfield. It’s not even limited to trades that actually happened, because how much time did we spend talking about Ryan Dempster & Chase Headley this summer?

But when when I woke up on the morning of July 25th to see that Hanley Ramirez (and Randy Choate) were suddenly Dodgers, it was shocking. In retrospect, I suppose it shouldn’t have been, because the Dodgers had been trying to get by with Luis Cruz & Jerry Hairston on the left side of the infield, but still: we’d heard almost nothing about Ramirez to that point. At the time, I was pretty thrilled:

This is in no way a trade without a substantial amount of risk, which we’ll get to in a second, but my first impression is that I really, really like taking the chance here. We’ve been over so many times how impossible it was going to be to find a bat in this market, particularly one who can play third base and isn’t able to walk at the end of the season, and to be able to do that and get a decent lefty bullpen arm without having to give up your top prospects is just phenomenal.

(snip) I think that’s why I like this deal, really. I joked yesterday that I couldn’t wait until Juan Uribe was gone so that we could stop looking at every crappy veteran player (Ryan Roberts, Josh Fields, looking at you here) and saying, “well, he’s at least better than Uribe!” as though that really meant anything. In Ramirez, you get a guy who really is better than Uribe – .246/.322/.428 with 14 homers and 14 steals isn’t outstanding, but it’s certainly an upgrade – and a guy who could potentially be something more than that, and you do it by eating money (something the new Dodger ownership does not seem troubled with) and by surrendering one good-but-not-great ready-now starter and one low level pitching prospect who I’m sure no more than five of you had heard of.

Ramirez was an immediate smash, getting on base 10 times in his first five games, including three extra-base hits. For a team which had seen so much ineptitude from Uribe & Dee Gordon all season long and hadn’t yet cashed in James Loney for Gonzalez and friends, the sudden influx of offense was more than welcome.

In his third game, he hit a go-ahead homer in the tenth against Sergio Romo & San Francisco to win a crucial matchup. Eight games later, after moving back from third base to shortstop, Ramirez walked off against the Cubs; five days after that, he had three hits and drove in two runs in his return to Miami. On August 18th, he had two dingers against the Braves, and with Cruz establishing himself, we had to take a moment to acknowledge just how much better things had gotten on the left side:

In 499 plate appearances spread over 137 games this season, the two primary Dodgers on the left side of the infield – Dee Gordon & Juan Uribe – had combined for three home runs all year long.

Tonight, Hanley Ramirez (two) & Luis Cruz combined to match that total in only five innings. In the second inning, they teamed with James Loney to go back-to-back-to-back off Atlanta starter Ben Sheets; in the sixth, after Matt Kemp & Andre Ethier walked, Ramirez sealed the game with his second blast of the night.

On September 3, Ramirez homered against San Diego’s Andrew Werner, his tenth as a Dodger and his fourth in seven days, and the era of good feelings was well underway. By that point, Ramirez had played 38 games as a Dodger, with his line sitting at .280/.343/.547 and ten homers. That’s great no matter what, but it’s absolutely phenomenal considering what we had seen come before in the infield.

Unfortunately for Ramirez, that September 3 homer would be his final one of the season, as he got stuck in the same September malaise as the rest of the team. Over the remaining 26 games of the month, he hit only .257/.292/.307 with a 28/3 K/BB. Taking just his time with the Dodgers, his BB% rate (6.3) and KK% (22.1) each represented career worsts, and then of course there’s the fact that he’s a pretty lousy defensive shortstop, by measures both old and new.

So yeah, there’s definitely concerns here going forward. Simply “being better than Uribe & Gordon” isn’t exactly the same thing as “being a productive player,” and merely looking good by comparison isn’t going to be enough for him next year. The biggest concern might be on defense, where I really don’t believe he can be an adequate shortstop. So far, the Dodgers don’t agree, but even if they don’t go out and get the shortstop I still think they need, I can’t see much of an argument for keeping Luis Cruz at third rather than swapping the two. And of course, if Ramirez doesn’t hit better than he did in September then defense may be the least of our problems.

Still, I’m optimistic, and I can’t sit here and say that I’d really rather have Nathan Eovaldi than Ramirez right now. Ramirez is only signed through his age-29 and -30 seasons, exactly where you want to have a player. His overall 2012, if not near his 2007-09 peak, was a step up from his disappointing 2011, and the fact that his power returned after offseason shoulder surgery was encouraging. If Ramirez can simply be convinced to regain his old patience and get his walk rate back up around 10%, all of a sudden you might have a fantastic complimentery piece to Matt Kemp & Adrian Gonzalez.

And if not? Well… at least he’s not Uribe.

******

Next up! Oh right, we have to spend a day talking about Justin Sellers, wonderful.

Surgery for Jerry Hairston Changes Infield Equation

Posted on by Leave a reply

I don’t want to talk about the hideous sweep the Dodgers just suffered at the hands of the Giants – and let it not be forgotten that the most likely path to the playoffs runs through the NL West rather than the wild card, so beating the Giants would seem to be somewhat important – and neither do you, so let’s not talk about it.

Instead, let’s talk about the ripple effect the somewhat unexpected news that Jerry Hairston is now out for the year following hip surgery has on the infield. (And despite how pleasant of a surprise Hairston was this year, he’s only going to end up playing in 78 games thanks to multiple injuries, once again showing the risk of signing veteran players in their mid-to-late 30s.)

When we talked about whether or not it mattered that Dee Gordon was getting healthy earlier this week, part of the discussion was predicated on the fact that Hairston’s injury was relatively minor, and on a team with a relatively set lineup which didn’t have a huge need for a traditional utilityman, he would be available to share time at third with Luis Cruz and/or be a safety net should the Cruz fantasy fall apart suddenly. That being the case, and since Hairston couldn’t play shortstop and Gordon was hardly necessary to slot back in, it made sense to keep the current configuration of Hanley Ramirez at short and Cruz at third.

Now… now, I’m not so sure about that. Ramirez hasn’t been awful at short, but he’s clearly a below-average defender there, and Cruz is average-to-above at the position. I think we’d all agree that the best defensive configuration would be to swap the two, and Hairston’s absence changes the equation going forward, because now, you pretty much have to play Cruz & Ramirez every day. Hairston’s not coming back. Juan Uribe barely exists and keeps his job only because of continued injuries to others. Adam Kennedy is a space-filler at best. Alex Castellanos can’t be counted on defensively yet, especially not in a pennant race. That means Cruz & Ramirez are your left side of the infield, and that being the case there’s a pretty solid argument to be made to play them where they best serve the defense. As we’ve seen just in the last few days, even poor defense that doesn’t get marked as errors can still hurt a team.

None of this changes what we said about Gordon the other day, of course. No matter how they’re positioned on the field, if someone’s losing playing time in order to get Gordon back on the field, it’s not going to be Ramirez. It’s going to be Cruz, and with solid defense along with two more hits last night, there’s absolutely no argument to be made for Gordon to be taking time away from Cruz right now. (“I’ll take sentences I never thought I’d write for $600, Alex.”)

So in the short term, it seems a swap would be a better defensive pairing. In the long term, it allows for easier slotting if Cruz does fall apart, because I’d rather have Gordon at shortstop (with Ramirez at third) than Kennedy & Uribe at third (with Ramirez at shortstop). The one thing I’ll admit that we cannot know is how much Ramirez enjoys playing shortstop and what the effect might be on him if he was moved; all indications are that he would be flexible to such a move, but he is hitting well and there’s always the thought that “if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.”

It might not be broken, and it probably won’t matter if other people don’t start hitting. In a race that seems likely to come down to the final day, however, even the slightest improvements matter, and this might be an easy way to give the defense a boost.