Category Archives: Hong-Chih Kuo

Happy Trails, Hong-Chih Kuo

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When the Dodgers non-tendered Hong-Chih Kuo earlier this winter, it seemed likely that we’d seen the last of him in Los Angeles, though we held out hope as he remained unsigned amid reports the Dodgers were remaining in contact with his agent. Those odds seemed to dwindle as the Dodgers added Mike MacDougal and Todd Coffey to the bullpen, and now it seems that Kuo is gone for good, since ESPN’s Jayson Stark is reporting that Kuo has decided on his new team and is expected to sign with Seattle this week.

Kuo was by far the longest tenured member of the Dodger organization, having started his career with one game for the 2000 San Bernardino Stampede (a club which also saw rehab stints from 41-year-old Orel Hershiser and 37-year-old Devon White). Along with the now-departed Jonathan Broxton, he was one of the two only remaining members of the dreadful 91-loss 2005 Dodgers from last year’s squad.

Assuming this is it for Kuo in Los Angeles, he’ll leave behind a whole lot more memories than you’d expect from an oft-injured middle reliever who managed fewer than 300 big-league innings in seven seasons. Sure, there were the multiple elbow surgeries and troubling bouts with anxiety, but there was also the out-of-nowhere playoff start in 2006, the greatest bat flip of all time, and a 2010 that was so overwhelmingly dominating that only one left-handed reliever in baseball history (minimum 60 innings) has ever topped it in terms of WHIP:

Rk Player WHIP IP Year Tm ERA ERA+ BA OBP SLG OPS
1 Billy Wagner 0.777 74.2 1999 HOU 1.57 287 .135 .208 .212 .420
2 Hong-Chih Kuo 0.783 60.0 2010 LAD 1.20 321 .139 .211 .192 .403
3 Arthur Rhodes 0.833 69.2 2002 SEA 2.33 183 .187 .227 .274 .501
4 Billy Wagner 0.837 77.2 2005 PHI 1.51 293 .165 .229 .265 .494
5 Jim Brewer 0.843 78.1 1972 LAD 1.26 267 .157 .233 .257 .490
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 2/5/2012.

Kuo’s performance that year just can’t be overstated; lefty batters managed just six hits against him all season, with only one extra-base hit among them. Of course, his 2011 quickly fell apart as continued battles with anxiety and yet another arm surgery made his non-tender decision a given. I’m not sure where he stands in his rehab, but since he’s just a year off that historic 2010, taking a gamble on him for a minimum-salary or minor-league deal would be a no-brainer for any team. I wish that had been the Dodgers, and I would have thought that he may have not wanted to entrust his health to a training staff which isn’t familiar with him, but it’s also not hard to think that he may have welcomed a fresh start elsewhere, and Seattle is obviously an appealing destination for Asian players.

When longtime Dodgers move on, we often offer a halfhearted “best of luck” without really caring what happens to them. (Pretty sure I’m talking about you, Brad Penny.) In this case, I think we’d all agree that even if it’s not for the Dodgers, nothing would make us happier than to see Kuo return to health and mow down the American League. I know I’ll be watching.

Non-Tender Monday

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Tonight at 12am ET / 9pm PT represents the deadline for the Dodgers to tender contracts to arbitration-eligible players, and while there’s not quite the “will they or won’t they?” drama that accompanied the Russell Martin decision last year, there’s still some choices to be made. Entering the off-season, the Dodgers had seven eligible players to decide upon…

… but obviously, Kemp’s new mega-deal and Eveland’s trade to Baltimore takes them out of the mix. Let’s look at the other five.

Kershaw. Uh, yeah. Pretty sure the reigning NL Cy Young is going to get tendered, and assuming he doesn’t sign a long-term deal, he’s in line for something like $7-$8m in his first year of arbitration. Yes, of course.

Gwynn. Though this is his second year of eligibility, Gwynn hasn’t actually gone through the arbitration process, since San Diego non-tendered him last December. After signing with the Dodgers for $675,000, he provided the expected mixture of mediocre offense and outstanding defense, in addition to being a useful piece on the bases. Though I think you could probably do a little better with the roster spot, he’s an acceptable backup outfielder, and so the question of whether he gets an offer comes down to numbers, both in terms of money and personnel. Gwynn could get over $1m in arbitration, perhaps more than the Dodgers want to spend, and the addition of Jerry Hairston means that they now have someone who can in theory spell Matt Kemp now and then in center field. In addition, if the Dodgers do plan on adding that additional bat we keep hearing about, there just might not be room for Gwynn on the roster, particularly if the addition is left-handed. Still, the outfield defense is subpar and Hairston isn’t really ideal in center, so Gwynn is valuable enough for his glove alone; I think it’s slightly more likely than not that he is tendered, though this is clearly the toughest call of any today. Probably.

Loney. It’s amazing to think that this is even a consideration after how certain we were for much of 2011 that he was absolutely going to get non-tendered, but Loney’s stellar finish seems to have earned him another chance, at least based on Ned Colletti’s comments of late. Loney’s recent (and increasingly bizarre) run-in with the law on a Los Angeles freeway last month aren’t helping his case, though it doesn’t appear to have hurt his standing with the club, and assuming the Dodgers have no prayer at landing Prince Fielder, there’s few other first base alternatives left anyway. Yes.

Kuo. The inverse of Loney, where a year ago it was difficult to imagine that a non-tender was even a possibility. If an awful 2011 was the only issue, you could perhaps see the club taking a chance, but yet another arm surgery torpedoed any shot that they’d risk the ~$3m he’d get in arbitration. That doesn’t mean we’ve definitely seen the last of him, however, because it’s unlikely any other club gives him a serious offer, and if he returns to baseball, he might not feel comfortable trusting his fragile health to a training staff who doesn’t know him nearly as well as the Dodgers do. No.

Ethier. Despite worrying before the season that he’d be non-tendered if he didn’t perform well and then going out and having an injury-plagued, sub-par season, Ethier’s a lock to receive a tender. He’ll likely receive about $12m in his final season of arbitration, and while that’s a bit pricey for me, I’m relatively optimistic he’ll have a productive season – and if the Dodgers are out of it in July, they can trade him and save about $4m of that. Yes.

MSTI’s 2011 in Review: Relievers, Part 4

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Kenley Jansen (K+)
2.85 ERA, 1.74 FIP, 16.10 K/9, 4.36 BB/9

Let’s start with the obvious: that 16.10 K/9 isn’t a typo. At 23, Jansen set a new MLB record for the highest K/9 rate ever, minimum 50 innings pitched. For someone in just his second full year of pitching after being converted from catching, that’s simply stunning.

Of course, there’s a lot more to Jansen’s year than simply whiffing every batter he saw, especially when it started out so poorly in his season debut:

Particularly troubling was Jansen’s disastrous sixth inning. After issuing a walk to Brandon Belt, his outing went RBI double, popout, walk, single (which could have easily been an error on Aaron Miles), RBI single, RBI single, strikeout, strikeout. It took him 42 pitches to get three outs, and he walks away with an ERA of 54. As I noted on Twitter at the time, because relievers generally don’t throw a ton of innings, it’ll take him weeks – if not months – to get that ERA down to a more palatable number, so even if he’s totally perfect from here on out, people will still see that high ERA on their TV graphics and think that he’s lousy. Hooray, ineffective statistics!

That’s exactly what happened, because thanks to that game and another disaster on April 19, Jansen’s ERA didn’t sink below 5 until July. Despite that, he still had a 22/8 K/BB in 13.1 innings through the first month of the season, making his demotion to the minors on May 1 somewhat shocking:

Since allowing four earned runs to the Giants on April 2, Jansen’s pitched in 12.1 innings over 10 games. In that time, he’s struck out 20 against 6 walks, allowing a line of .196/.288/.391. He did have a meltdown on April 19 against the Braves, giving up five earned runs in the 9th inning of a game that the Dodgers were already losing, but has been excellent in the three games since: 9 strikeouts and 2 walks in 4.2 innings, without a hit.

Yet Lance Cormier, who’s pitched just once in the last two weeks, and only once has made it through an appearance without giving up a run, remains. I assume that this falls under Ned Colletti’s usual m.o. of keeping control over as many players as possible, and I guess it’s not the worst thing in the world for Jansen to get more experience in a lower-pressure environment, but with the bullpen struggling as much as it has been, it certainly seems like an odd choice to send down the guy who’s striking out 14.85 men per nine innings. That’s the highest rate of anyone in baseball this year with at least 13 innings pitched, and it’s the 8th best seasonal rate in major league history (obviously, in a tiny sample size).

Jansen will be back soon, and Cormier, most likely, won’t be. So this isn’t a fatal, crushing mistake. It’s just an unexpected choice to look at your bullpen full of guys who don’t miss bats – like Matt Guerrier, Cormier, and lately Jonathan Broxton – and send down the one guy who really does.

It seemed like an odd choice at the time, and knowing what we do now about Cormier, looks even worse in retrospect. Of course, it lasted just five days, as Jansen was forced to return on May 6 when Hong-Chih Kuo went on the disabled list. He didn’t allow a run in his first seven outings of the month, but then he allowed three runs while blowing a save in Houston in what might have been the lowest point of the season on May 23. After another tough outing against Florida five days later, he was placed on the disabled list with shoulder inflammation.

To that point in the season, Jansen had a 6.43 ERA thanks to three disaster games, had been optioned out once and was now dealing with arm soreness. Though he’d clearly shown flashes of what he could do (35 K in 21 IP), he hadn’t quite been able to put it all together, inconsistency that we chalked up to his inexperience on the mound. That may have been so, but everything changed when he returned to the club on June 18. In 16 innings from then until the end of July, Jansen was basically unhittable, striking out 26 while allowing just three singles to the 58 batters he faced.

But after closing out a game against Colorado on July 26, we received the harrowing news that Jansen had been sent to a local hospital thanks to an irregular heartbeat; three days later, he was on the disabled list and taking blood thinners. While we initially worried about the impact this could have on his life outside of baseball, he was back with the team a month later and picked up right where he left off: in 16.2 innings after August 26, he struck out 35 of the 62 batters he faced, allowing just seven hits. Over the rest of the season after returning from his shoulder soreness on June 18, he had a 61/12 K/BB while holding opponents to a miniscule .094/.192/.104 line while becoming the team’s primary setup man.

Before the season, Jansen noted that he was doing his best to imitate his idol Mariano Rivera. It wasn’t always smooth, but Jansen arguably had a more dominating season than the great Rivera has ever had. Just 24 next season and still learning how to pitch, there’s few words for Jansen’s ascent to stardom, though there’s still a feeling that this story is one that isn’t receiving the national attention it deserves, mainly because Jansen wasn’t given the chance to rack up the saves that a contemporary like Atlanta’s Craig Kimbrel has. Though Javy Guerra is almost certain to start 2012 as the closer, he’ll have to be on his game from the start to hold off Jansen.

Hong-Chih Kuo (F)
9.00 ERA, 5.06 FIP, 12.00 K/9, 7.67 BB/9

If you could have paired 2010 Kuo with 2011 Jansen, the Dodgers might have had the most dominating left/right combo in baseball history, and if you don’t buy that, just go back and remember how great Kuo was in 2010. Unfortunately, Kuo never got untracked, sidetracked by issues both physical and emotional.

It was clear that Kuo wasn’t right straight from the start, as he walked four in his first 2.2 innings and just didn’t look right doing it. On April 16, he was placed on the disabled list with back soreness, which at least allowed us the small relief of not having to worry about his arm again. (For the moment, anyway.) He returned on May 1, but after he’d struggled in his minor league rehab outings, I worried that it was too soon:

Though Blake Hawksworth was solid in contributing two scoreless innings, much more disturbing was Hong-Chih Kuo‘s seemingly premature return from the disabled list. Kuo threw 25 pitches, but just 14 for strikes while allowing four men to reach in a 9th inning he couldn’t complete. His velocity was in the low 90s, but his control was all over the place; he was finally yanked after hitting Will Venable with a big, looping curveball, one of several breaking pitches he had no command of. Mike MacDougal followed by allowing a run to score on a sacrifice fly, and two more on a Chase Headley double.

Kuo lasted just four more games before leaving the team again on May 11, a move which at the time was mostly notable for the shroud of mystery it was wrapped in, as no one associated with the team was able to publicly state the reason. We later found out that it was due to “anxiety issues”, or a relapse of the “yips” which had previously plagued him.

Kuo missed about six weeks, returning in late June, and the results were mixed; particularly troubling was a five-game stretch in late July and early August where he allowed nine earned runs while walking eight. He improved, though, slowly, since over the last two months he had an 18/7 K/BB while allowing only a .178/.302/.333 line. Unfortunately, any positive feelings that might have allowed him to carry over into 2012 disappeared when we learned the disappointing news that he would need yet another surgery on his left elbow, his fifth total.

Despite reports that Kuo may considering retirement, his agent insists that he’ll attempt to return to MLB in 2012. The surgery makes him an almost certain non-tender, shocking to think just a year after his phenomenal 2010, though that might actually make him more likely to return to the Dodgers, if his familiarity with the team’s medical staff makes him more amenable to coming back on a low guaranteed salary. I hope he does, but regardless of where he lands, I think we all just hope he can finally stay happy and healthy, after everything he’s been through.

Lance Cormier (F-)
9.88 ERA, 6.90 FIP, 4.61 K/9, 3.29 BB/9

If you’re wondering why Cormier’s card clearly displays one of the staged pictures from spring training photo day rather than game action like everyone else, it’s because Cormier was hardly ever allowed to even pitch. When he was signed, we had incredibly low expectations…

Getting back to Lance Cormier, an initial look at his baseball-reference page shows that maybe this guy isn’t so bad, as he pitched in at least 45 games in each of the last three years, with ERA of 4.02, 3.26, and 3.92. That could be useful, right?

But then I look over to the right column, and see that he’s walked less than 4.3 per 9 exactly once in his career, and for a guy who doesn’t strike out all that many, that seems brutal. It was even worse in 2010, since he actually walked more (4.9/9) than he struck out (4.4/9). Not good.

The brain doesn’t stop there, though. Seeing that K/BB mark made me think that, “hey, didn’t I write about this guy already?” Indeed I did, back on December 3, when I was looking at the players who were non-tendered by other teams:

Cormier comes up because he had a 3.92 ERA this year. He also had a 1.648 WHIP and walked four more guys than he struck out. Uh, no thanks. PASS.

Yep. Gross.

…and he still managed to under-perform them. Cormier pitched in just nine games as a Dodger, allowing earned runs in seven of them. Looking at his game log, it was clear that Don Mattingly had zero confidence in him, since he was only allowed to enter games that were completely out of hand. Only once did Cormier get a chance to pitch in a game that had anything on the line, on May 19 against the Giants after the Dodgers had come back from a 4-0 deficit to tie. Yeah, about that…

Having exhausted all his pitchers, Don Mattingly was forced to use his “break glass in case of emergency” pitcher, Lance Cormier in a tie game in the 9th. Even before this game, Cormier had been completely putrid, but at least he’d done so in the lowest of low-leverage situations. Of the seven games he’d entered before yesterday, only one ended up being even as close as a four run game. I will absolutely support Tony Jackson’s premise that Cormier’s extremely rare usage (he hadn’t pitched in eight days, and just twice since April 22 – nearly a month) contributed to his poor performance last night, but that doesn’t change the fact that he hasn’t gotten the job done all season. Predictably, Cormier couldn’t get through the inning when it actually mattered, allowing two singles before a three-run blast by Cody Ross put the game away.

Honestly, the fact that Cormier lasted as long as he did counts as some sort of minor miracle, though he’ll at least be the answer to a fun trivia question: who was cut loose to make room for Rubby De La Rosa? After returning to Tampa’s AAA club, the results weren’t much better, allowing 62 hits in 47.1 innings. I think I’ll be pretty happy if this is the last time I ever have to think about Lance Cormier existing on this planet.

******

Next! Don Mattingly overcomes our doubts! Ned Colletti, doing Ned Colletti things! It’s the final review of 2011: management!

So There’s Good News & Bad News

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Good news, maybe, from Bill Shaikin:

MLB, McCourt trying to see if there is a deal to be made. McCourt would agree to sell. Long way to go.

This would jive with Molly Knight’s report from earlier today that Frank McCourt was in New York, since that’s where the MLB offices are. It might also explain this morning’s news that the major bankruptcy court hearing originally scheduled for October 31 has been pushed back to November 29 – it would seem that either one side or both signaled to the court that settlement was enough of a possibility that more time would be worthwhile.

Of course, Shaikin is absolutely correct that there’s a long way to go, and I would caution everyone not to expect any sort of imminent deal. But if this report is correct, it does signal that McCourt is at least willing to discuss the possibility of selling the team, an idea he’s always refused to entertain. If that’s the case – and remember, this is all hypothetical, since we don’t have all the facts – I would imagine this means that he’s the one who is backing down, not MLB. All the cards do seem to be stacked against him, and as the odds continue to get lower that he’ll actually win the case, it would be in his best interests to settle. That goes for MLB as well, of course; even if they’re confident they’ll win the case, there’s a lot of dirty laundry there I’m sure they’d rather keep hidden.

So while that’s possibly a reason for optimism, there’s also really, really bad news, from Steve Dilbeck:

Hong-Chih Kuo is headed to elbow surgery, again.

Kuo was examined Wednesday by Dodgers physician Neal ElAttrache, who found a “loose body” of enough significance in his left elbow that arthroscopic surgery has been scheduled for Friday.

That would be elbow operation No. 5 for Kuo.

This one is hardly as significant as the two Tommy Johns that were included in those four previous surgeries, but total number is staggering.

ElAttrache estimates this procedure will prevent Kuo from throwing for the next six to eight weeks, which would put him past the Dec. 12 deadline when teams must tender contracts to players –- like Kuo –- who are eligible for arbitration.

Kuo almost certainly wasn’t going to get tendered a contract anyway, so this might actually work in the Dodgers’ favor, since it makes it more likely that no one else will give him a guaranteed deal and that he might be willing to return to the medical staff that knows him so well for a minimum, or even a minor-league, contract.

Of course, that’s not what I’m focusing on right now, because mostly I just feel so bad for Kuo. His injury struggles have been well-documented, and few stories were more gratifying in 2010 than his absolute domination out of the bullpen. After his tough 2011, he mentioned he might not want to come back, and we’ve heard him say in the past that he might retire rather than undergo another surgery. Since he was originally planning on pitching next week in Taiwan against a team of major leaguers – it was his reported arm soreness while training for that which led to the cancelation of his trip and the examination that resulted in today’s diagnosis – I’m guessing that is no longer the case, and Dylan Hernandez reports that Kuo’s agent says he will do his best to return in 2012.

We don’t know yet if that will be with the Dodgers, but I have to say, I hope it is. I just don’t know how you can root against Kuo after all he’s been through.

2011 Midseason Grades: Pitching and Management

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Thanks for all the feedback on yesterday’s hitting grades, and today we move on to pitching and management. Remember, the letter grades are just for fun, without a whole lot of thought or science behind them.

Starting Pitchers

Clayton Kershaw (A+) (9-4, 3.03 ERA, 2.45 FIP)
Is A+ even high enough? I’m not sure it is, though we certainly expected great things from him. Think about this: his HR/9 rate and H/9 rate are unchanged from last year, but he’s managed to do that while lowering his walk rate (again!) and increasing his strikeout rate. He’s leading the league in whiffs, and he has two shutouts among his three complete games. He’s 23. He’s lefty. He’s an All-Star.

Don’t let anyone tell you that he’s progressing towards being an ace, or one day he could be one of the best. Clayton Kershaw is, right now, one of the 10 best pitchers in baseball. The scary part? He could still get better.

Chad Billingsley (B) (8-7, 3.87 ERA, 3.41 FIP)
Over at Baseball Prospectus this morning, Geoff Young of DuckSnorts offers the opinion that Billingsley “should be a star, but isn’t”. And that’s true. 26-year-old Billingsley is walking more and striking out less than 23-year-old Billingsley did in 2008. That’s not necessarily a bad thing, because he’s still a very valuable asset and the extension he signed over the winter was welcomed, but he’s also not going to be a Kershaw-level star like we’d once hoped he would be. Again, that’s not to get on Billingsley, it’s just seemingly who he’s going to be – a durable #2 or 3 type who will be consistently inconsistent (3 starts this year of at least 8 IP and 1 ER or less, 3 starts allowing 5 ER or more). That’s not a star, but it is a quality pitcher we should be happy to have.

Hiroki Kuroda (B) (6-10, 3.06 ERA, 3.73 FIP)
Only five pitchers have received less run support than Kuroda (shockingly, no other Dodger appears on the top 40 of that list), so let’s not pretend the poor win/loss record means absolutely anything at all. Conversely, the ERA is a little misleading as well, since he’s striking out fewer and walking more than he did in either 2009 or 2010, facts which are reflected in the higher FIP. Still, he’s been a solid member of this rotation… and probably the only Dodger with any real trade value at the deadline. I’ll be sorry to see him go, if he does.

Ted Lilly (D) (6-9, 4.79 ERA, 4.59 FIP)
Lilly hasn’t been awful (back, back, it’s gone!), but nor has he been (throw to second, and the runner is in!) in any way worthy of the $33m deal he received in the offseason. He’s (that ball is far, it is out of here!) striking out fewer than ever, and more (he’s going, and he swipes second without a throw) batted balls in front of a defense that isn’t great at converting them into outs isn’t (that ball is crushed into the second tier!) a good mix. Oh, and he’s 35 and has complained (Navarro’s throw to second, not in time, another steal!) of arm soreness already. Loving that three-year deal more than ever.

Rubby De La Rosa (A) (3-4, 3.74 ERA, 3.40 FIP)
Probably the most impressive of any of the rookies pushed ahead of their schedule this year, de la Rosa has shown immense talent while being forced to learn on-the-job. While his first few starts were dicey – good lord, the walks, and that one game that he nearly got bounced in the first inning was a heart-stopper – RDLR has shown marked improvement, even flirting with no-hitters in each of his last two outings. The talent is unquestioned, but the real concern now is limited his innings, since he’s quickly coming up on matching his previous high with more than two months remaining in the season. But if he’s limited and if someone like Kuroda is dealt… how do you finish out the season? John Ely? Dana Eveland? Yikes.

Jon Garland (D-) (1-5, 4.33 ERA, 4.59 FIP)
Hey, remember when Garland was signed largely because he’d never been on the disabled list before? If you do, then you probably also remember him saying he couldn’t get multi-year deals because other teams didn’t like the looks of his medical reports. Garland gets a lousy grade not because of his performance (ignore the 1-5, a 4.59 FIP is in line with his usual season), but because he sells his durability as a skill. Clearly, that’s one item he forgot to pack for his second (and likely final) tour with the Dodgers. At least that large 2012 option won’t kick in.

John Ely (inc.) (0-1, 6.23 ERA, 5.61 FIP)
Remember Ely-mania last year? Seems so far away, doesn’t it?

Relief pitchers

Jonathan Broxton (MRI) (1-2, 7 saves, 5.68 ERA, 5.56 FIP)
I have absolutely no idea how to grade Jonathan Broxton. Was he good this year? No, of course he wasn’t, and for many people that justifies their opinion that at around midseason 2010, he somehow lost his heart / mind / balls / toes / earlobes / whatever. The fact that he somehow managed to even close out seven games earlier this year is somewhat misleading, because he rarely did so smoothly; conversely, it’s difficult to blame him entirely for the big blown save in Florida because the Dodgers would have won if Jamey Carroll had merely fielded a simple ground ball.

I’d say the answer lies in the fact that he’s been on the disabled list for over two months due to a right elbow injury, with no estimated return date. We never saw the healthy Broxton this year, just as I felt we never saw a healthy Broxton in the second half of last year. The lesson, as always? Joe Torre cannot be trusted with relievers. You hate to say it about a guy who is only 27, but Torre may just have ruined Broxton’s career. Thanks for stopping by, Joe!

Hong-Chih Kuo (-) (0-0, 8.71 ERA, 4.12 FIP)
Take everything I said about Broxton above and multiply it by 100 for Kuo, because the anxiety issue he’s been fighting for years makes it impossible to really judge his on-field performance. Since returning, he’s at least managed to limit the walks (6/2 K/BB in 5.2 IP), though the results (five runs, four earned) haven’t all been there yet. The fact that he even returned as quickly as he did should count as a win.

Kenley Jansen (B+) (1-1, 4.40 ERA, 3.15 FIP)
I bet a lot of people will be surprised by this grade for Jansen. “But his ERA is 4.40, rabble rabble rabble!”, they’ll yell. That’s true, it is. That number is also heavily inflated by two poor outings – allowing 5 earned runs to Atlanta on April 19 in a game that the Dodgers were already losing in, and allowing 3 earned runs on May 23 in Houston, a game which preceded his stint on the DL with right shoulder inflammation by less than a week. Since returning from injury on June 18, he’s been nearly untouchable, striking out 13 while allowing just two singles in 9.2 innings. While the walks remain a problem, he’s actually striking out more per nine than he did in 2010, and you might remember that even last year’s rate was on the verge of being historic. The question for me is, why is he stuck in middle relief and garbage time rather than in higher leverage situations?

Matt Guerrier (C-) (3-3, 3.10 ERA, 4.44 FIP)
Boy, who would have thought that handing out an expensive multi-year deal to a non-elite middle reliever wouldn’t have worked out well? Besides everyone, that is. Guerrier actually hasn’t been that bad, but that’s sort of the point: players who get $12m over three years should be able to do better than “hasn’t been that bad”. Though he’s striking out slightly more than he did as a Twin, he’s allowing both more walks and hits than he did in either of the last two years, despite moving to the easier league. He’ll be 33 in less than a month. It’s not a good trend.

Mike MacDougal (C+) (0-1, 1.67 ERA, 3.74 FIP)
2003 All-Star MacDougal has done an excellent job of reviving his career after several years bouncing between the bigs and AAA. MacDougal, who made the 2003 All-Star team as a member of the Royals, has just a 1.74 ERA, emerging as a leader of the injury-plagued Dodger bullpen. The former All-Star has allowed only six earned runs to score, putting him in contention for 9th inning responsibilities. All-Star.

(I can’t do it. MacDougal has allowed approximately 982 of the 48 inherited runners he’s received* to score. For nearly the entire season, he’d walked as many as he’d struck out, before finally giving himself some distance in recent days. He’s not a good pitcher, but like Aaron Miles, we expected nothing, so the small contributions he’s made get him some minor credit. *note: numbers may be fabricated.)

Number of Ortizii: 0 (A++++)
Say what you will about this club, at least they’re not employing anyone named Ortiz who was last useful 6-8 years ago, much less multiple players like that.

Javy Guerra (B+) (1-0, 4 saves, 2.33 ERA, 4.01 FIP)
Guerra, like MacDougal all those years ago, is a perfect example of why we shouldn’t overrate saves. For a guy who walked 6.8/9 in the minors last year and was forced to the bigs simply because of injuries, he’s been fine. He’s keeping the ball in the yard, he’s cut down on the control issues, and he’s even managed to steal a few saves while serving as the last-ditch closer. As far as debuts go, his has been a successful one. Let’s just not go overboard in anointing him as the man in the 9th inning, because he hasn’t been that good – 13 K in 19.1 IP doesn’t thrill me – and in each of his last two saves, he loaded the bases before getting out of the jam. That’s not the kind of tightrope you can walk for very long.

Blake Hawksworth (B) (2-2, 3.00 WHIP, 4.12 FIP)
“Isn’t Ryan Theriot“, and that alone gets him a boost. Actually, I joke, but it’s sort of true: when healthy, Hawksworth has been a perfectly acceptable and average reliever, doing a decent job of keeping runners off the bases (WHIP of 1.000), and striking out more than double as he’s walked. Considering that Theriot is doing his usual “I’m not a very good baseball player, but I am short and white, and that counts for something, right?” routine in St. Louis, even just getting that moderate level of contribution in exchange is a big win.

Scott Elbert (B-) (0-1, 5.25 ERA, 2.54 FIP)
I know there’s been a lot of turnover in the bullpen this year, but Elbert is one of those guys where I constantly have to check if he’s still on the team or down in ABQ. I suppose that’s partically because he’s pitched just twice in the last two weeks, and partially because he’s rarely in for more than 2-3 batters at a time. As for his performance, he’s a bit of an oddity in that you’d expect a power lefty to be hell on lefty hitters, but he’s actually rocking a reverse split: lefties (.701 OPS) are actually doing more damage than righties (.561 OPS) against him. Overall, I guess you can say he’s been “acceptable”, in that he’s finally gained a foothold in the majors, but hasn’t exactly made us think he’s going to be a difference maker.

Then again, considering his mysterious disappearance at this time last year, even that is a massive step forward.

Ramon Troncoso (D) (0-0, 6.23 ERA, 4.92 FIP)
I know it’s popular to blame Torre for Troncoso’s downturn as well, and maybe that’s part of it, but I do remember writing a post last year that outlined how he had larger issues than overuse. Whatever it is, he’s barely a major league quality pitcher right now… which probably explains why he’s not in the major leagues. That’s what’ll happen when you aren’t striking anyone out and giving up an absurd amount of hits, though I’ll allow that since he was never a strikeout guy, pitching in front of a defense that does no favors probably doesn’t help.

Ronald Belisario (MIA)
Ha, no. There’s about as good of a chance that he pitches for the Dodgers again as there is that you’ll see Orel Hershiser or Don Drysdale out there.

Josh Lindblom (B+) (0-0, 1.69 ERA, 3.43 FIP)
Nearly two years after we first thought we might see him, Lindblom finally got the call this year, and so far, so good. It’s hard to make judgements based on just eight games, but he’s yet to allow more than one earned run in an appearance, and for now, that’s good enough.

Lance Cormier (dFa) (0-1, 9.88 ERA, 6.84 FIP)
I’m still convinced the only reason Cormier wasn’t DFA’d a week or two earlier than he eventually was (on May 24, when Rubby De La Rosa came up) is because he had a charity event for tornado victims set up at the stadium on May 15, and it would have been poor form to cut a guy just before or after that. I also like that we can say “nah, he wasn’t as bad as his ERA, look at his FIP” and while that’s true, even his FIP says he was awful.

Vicente Padilla (inc.) (0-0, 4.15 ERA, 2.61 FIP)
I sure do feel like we’ve talked about Padilla a lot this year for a guy who piched just 8.2 innings. First he was signed to a somewhat confusing 6th starter/longman/Broxton insurance role, in a move for depth I actually really liked. Then he required surgery for a forearm injury in the spring, preventing him from taking Garland’s rotation spot to start the year. He returned exceptionally quickly from that, taking over for the injured Broxton to nab three saves of varying quality in late April and early May, leading many to proclaim him the next big thing… until he returned to the DL with a recurrence of the arm injury. But the fun doesn’t stop there, because he was supposedly hours away from being activated in June before a neck injury flared up, leading to more surgery and probably the end of his season. Got all that? Phew.

Management

Don Mattingly (B+)
It may sound odd to praise a rookie manager when we weren’t fans of his hiring in the first place and when the club he’s leading is on pace for its worst finish in decades, but I don’t see how you pin much of this mess on Mattingly. He’s proven himself to be far more than a Joe Torre clone, in particular showing a nice willingness to be creative with his bullpen. It hasn’t been perfect, as some of his Navarro-related pinch-hitting escapades still burn, and he likes bunting more than I’d prefer, but he was handed a subpar roster that had its infield and bullpen totally destroyed by injuries, all as fans stayed away thanks to the off-field mess. It would be an impossible situation for any manager, and though the final record won’t be good, Mattingly has been a pleasant surprise, managing to keep the team playing hard through it all. Let’s just hope he doesn’t end up shouldering more of the blame than is needed when all is said and done.

Davey Mutha-F’ing-Lopes (A+^100)
I don’t usually grade the base coaches. Matt Kemp doesn’t usually lead the league in WAR. There you go.

Ned Colletti (F+)
Let’s quickly review all of the contracts handed out last winter by Colletti that were for at least $1m, shall we? Uribe, massive bust. Lilly, missing fewer bats than ever. Guerrier, adequate but overpaid and having one of the lesser years of his career. Garland and Padilla, both injured multiple times and likely out for the year. Barajas, crappier than usual and hurt. Thames, ineffective and injured. Navarro, hitting .183. To be fair, Kuroda has been very good, but it’s hard to say that without caveating that he clearly took a huge paycut to stay in LA.

There’s been a few positives – signing Billingsley was great, the no-risk NRI of Miles worked out, and trading Ryan Theriot for Hawksworth was a good move if you try to forget that it was necessitated by acquiring Theriot in the first place – and you want to be sensitive to the fact that the ownership mess has really put him in a bad position. But overall? Not good, Ned. Not good.

******

Tomorrow, the final review of the series: me.