MSTI’s 2009 in Review: Secondary Starting Pitchers

Before we get back to our season reviews, two quick items:

1) Yes, I saw Plaschke’s article about the 87-year-old Dodger scout who got his salary cut from $18,000 to $8,000, and yes, I share his disgust at the fact that this man who apparently has done so many great things is suffering a paycut while we read about Jamie McCourt’s financial atrocities. The cynic in me might add that a scout who has signed zero major leaguers since joining the Dodgers in 1994 should be pretty happy he even still has a job, but still. If he’s not worth the $10,000 for his scouting abilities, avoiding the public relations fiasco this is causing the team should surely have been worth that cash.

2) Check out SimonOnSports, where I answered some questions about the Dodger offseason.

Now, on to the rest of the starting pitchers…

V85toppsvicentepadillaicente Padilla (A+)
(4-0, 3.20, 1.220 WHIP)

Say this for Vicente Padilla: he’s not boring. When he was signed in August, the reaction was a collective, “meh?” For just $100,000, the cost was negligible, though of course there was the significant baggage of “known douchebag whose former teammates cheered the release of one of their starters even though they were in a playoff push.”

Still, don’t forget that he came in with zero expectations, and in fact worried those who thought he’d start headhunting and cause brawls, as if that made sense. Not only did he not start the latest round of riots in LA, he was actually… good. He allowed 2, 1, 2, and 0 earned runs in his first four starts. After two mediocre outings and a bullpen appearance, and with his playoff roster spot on the line, he came back with a dominating 10 strikeout performance against the Rockies on the last day of the season.

Then, he was the surprise starter in NLDS Game 3, pitching 7 scoreless innings of 4-hit ball. This earned him an even more surprising start in NLCS Game 2, in which he was again fantastic: just 1 run over 7.1 innings. At that point, it was hard to argue with the idea of starting him again in Game 5… after which it was hard to imagine that the season ended in the hands of Vicente Padilla, because he allowed 6 ER in 3 IP.

Oh, and then he was accidentally shot in the thigh in Nicaragua last week, a self-inflicted wound. Or one inflicted by his bodyguard. While hunting. Or at a shooting range. We never did find out the truth there, did we?

So, the man’s a nutjob. Still, Padilla’s 2 excellent playoff starts can’t be forgotten, and there were no clubhouse issues reported at all. I can’t imagine that he gets any sort of longterm deal with his baggage, but if he’s willing to come back on a one-year deal with an option, for a few million at most, then I’d happily welcome him back.

No guns, though, please.

85toppsjongarlandJon Garland (A-)
(3-2, 2.72, 1.266 WHIP)

I’ll admit it. We’ve done nothing but denigrate Jon Garland around here. Right from the day the trade was announced, I was against it, saying:

Did we need him? Well, last winter this would have been a “yes”, when we all saw inning-eating issues in the future and I advocated signing him for just that reason. So, yeah, we needed him in January. We needed him in April. We probably needed him in July. But now, when it’s already September? What’s he going to have, 5 starts? Maybe?

and

Survey says… We’ll of course have more to say on this once we know who the player is going back to Arizona. Right now, the feeling is more “worried” with a good chance of “horrified“. 

We’ve since found out that the player going back to Arizona is indeed Tony Abreu, which has made an unnecessary trade look even worse, and we’ve been bemoaning the situation ever since. Hey, it’s not like the team has a hole at second base, right?

But it’s important to remember that none of that is Jon Garland’s fault. Having to send Abreu back looks more and more to be directly related to the McCourt divorce disaster and the refusal to pick up any of Garland’s salary. Since the Diamondbacks didn’t save much money, they got a better player. That has absolutely nothing to do with Garland’s performance as a Dodger, and though he wasn’t really needed, he was pretty good when called upon.

In six starts as a Dodger, Garland posted a variety of stats that all would have been career highs if sustained for a full season: ERA (2.72), WHIP (1.266), K/9 (6.4), K/BB (2.89). He contributed five very good starts before a disastrous finale against San Diego. So Garland, more or less, did what he was asked to do. That’s all you can grade a man on.

Still, it should be noted that his opposition while a Dodger was hardly a murderer’s row. In 6 Dodger starts, Garland got to face Arizona (twice), Pittsburgh (twice), San Francisco, and San Diego, so let’s not act like he was shutting down the Phillies & Yankees.

85toppscharliehaegerCharlie Haeger (A)
(1-1, 3.32, 1.053 WHIP)

Free Charlie Haeger! Each year, I seem to latch onto a relatively unheralded minor leaguer or fringe vet and trumpet what they could do for the big team at a fraction of the cost of a name veteran. In 2007 and ’08, it was Delwyn Young. Later in 2008, we were also on board with Terry Tiffee. This year? Captain Knuckleball.

I won’t pretend that the novelty of the knuckleball isn’t at least part of what drew me to Haeger, but it’s more than that. First of all, he was successful in a tough climate in Albuquerque, making the PCL All Star team by going 11-6 with a 3.55 ERA in a notoriously tough park to pitch in. Then, once he reached the bigs, he was everything we’d hoped for – 3.32 ERA in 6 outings (3 starts) with a sparking 1.053 WHIP. For a team that heard all year that their starters weren’t throwing enough innings, why wouldn’t you want a knuckleballer with the ability to get things out?

I’m such a big backer of Haeger that I included him in my 2010 plan, saying:

10) Give Charlie Haeger a chance. I’m not saying to just hand the guy a starting gig, but he does seem to be completely invisible around the Dodgers, and it’s foolish to write him off. We’ve been running a “free Charlie Haeger!” campaign around here all summer, and he’s done nothing to change that.

The guy was one of the top pitchers in AAA last year, despite being in the high-altitude deathpad of Albuquerque. Then when he came up to the bigs, he was more than adequate – 19 IP in 6 games (2 starts), allowing a WHIP of just 1.053 and an ERA of 3.32.

With all of the complaints we heard all year about how the Dodger starters weren’t going  deep into games, why wouldn’t we want to see a knuckleballer who could soak up innings? Even if he’s “just” league-average, there’s still a lot of value in that. So give him a chance to crack the bullpen as a long man and spot starter, available to step in if/when someone gets hurt.

What’s the downside here? He’s cheap, can throw a lot of innings, and seems to be effective. Go with it.

85toppsericmiltonEric Milton (B)
(2-1, 3.80, 1.521 WHIP)

Are we sure Eric Milton was a Dodger in 2009? I mean, I see his card to the left. I see his stats above. I just have almost zero recollection of him actually pitching.

Still, he gets a B just because expectations for him were almost Schmidt-esque. After missing most of 2007 and ’08 with Tommy John surgery, Milton signed a minor league deal with a spring training invite. How’d he do in spring training? Well, this is what I wrote about him on April 1 in my post predicting who’d make the Opening Day roster:

#24. Lefty pitcher who should enjoy 2 weeks of big league service time until Will Ohman comes up on April 14… Well, it’s sure as hell not going to be Eric Milton, not after he added 8 runs in 2 1/3 innings to the 10.07 ERA he brought into today’s game.

So down to Albuquerque it was, where he was actually pretty decent - 2.83 ERA and 27/6 K/BB ratio at that point. Once he got called up in May, well, look. What can you say about the five starts Milton had? The end results were decent enough (2.89 ERA through the first four, though 3.80 overall after a disastrous fifth outing), the way he got there a little less so (11.4 hits/9 and a 1.521 WHIP – woof), and then he hurt his back, requiring surgery that put him out for the year.

I’m honestly struggling to say anything else about Eric Milton’s contributions this year. Good lord, just wait until I get to Travis Schlichting.

85toppsjasonschmidtJason Schmidt (RIP)
(2-2, 5.60, 1.585 WHIP)

na na na na…

na na NA na…

hey hey hey!

good bye…

Our long national nightmare is over! We no longer have to see “RHP – Jason Schmidt (shoulder)” taking up space on the 60-day DL, or more importantly on the payroll. To be fair, it’s important to remember that Schmidt was a class act through all of this. There’s a lot of guys who would have hung it up long ago, but Schmidt did his best to rehab and work his way back, managing to make four mostly terrible starts this year – though one was a completely misleading one-hitter over six innings against the Braves. (Misleading because he walked five in those six innings).

So the blame doesn’t go to Schmidt; it goes to Ned Colletti, who admitted that he knew Schmidt was injured when he signed him. Still, it was completely clear that the man just had nothing left. Sorry to see a great competitor go out like that… but I’d be even sorrier to see him still pitching.

Next! Jonathan Broxton’s still awesome! George Sherrill’s funky hat!! Troncoso and Belisario, oh my! Hong-Chih Kuo’s explosive elbow! And Jeff Weaver lives!! It’s relievers, part 1!

Our Long National Nightmare is Over

(This has to be at least the third time I’ve used that line on this blog, right? Guess I’m just a sucker for Nixon references.)

Ken Gurnick with the news on today’s roster move:

To make room for Thursday starting pitcher Vicente Padilla on the 40-man roster, the Dodgers placed Jason Schmidt on the 60-day disabled list, effectively ending his tenure with the club. Schmidt is in the final season of a three-year deal and has hinted he will retire. He went 2-2 in four starts last month, but was placed on the disabled list with recurring shoulder problems. In three seasons with the Dodgers he won a total of three games and had two shoulder operations. The Dodgers also optioned infielder Tony Abreu to Triple-A and he is expected to return Sept. 1 when rosters expand.

Not that any of this was anything but completely expected, but it sure is good to know that we’ll never have to suffer through Jason Schmidt in Dodger blue again. No hard feelings, of course, because we know that he did everything he could to come back and it just wasn’t there – but man, was that some of the most painful pitching you’ve ever seen? Actually, I kind of wonder what he’s doing right now; if he’s still rehabbing or if he’s packed up and gone home.

It’s less than an hour until Padilla-time, and for the record, no – I don’t care that he’s a jerk. If he can pitch, great. If not, lose him.

By the way, how great would “Dodgers go into Coors Field and take two of three from baseball’s hottest team” look as a headline to all those who predicted impending doom?

Timing Is Everything

Despite my recent wishes for Charlie Haeger or Eric Stults to replace Jason Schmidt in the rotation, I’m more than happy with Scott Elbert getting the start. (Wait, let’s not gloss over the obvious. No more Jason Schmidt! Hooray!!) As I said yesterday, I believe Elbert’s future is as a starter, so it’s great to see that the team might possibly agree.

87toppsscottelbert.jpgBut when you’ve got a young pitcher about to make his first major league start, wouldn’t you think you’d want to put him in the best possible position to succeed? Schmidt’s start was on Monday, but rather than having Elbert take it, Hiroki Kuroda is sliding back a day for it (ostensibly to “get him another day of rest”, but it’s clearly because the game against the Giants is far more important than the game against the Braves) – and that’s fine.

No, what gets me is that after Elbert pitched 0.1 of an inning on Thursday, getting the win against Atlanta, he was announced as the Sunday starter before Friday’s game. Granted, throwing 6 pitches in the Thursday game is barely even a side session, so the fact that a Sunday start would technically put him on “two days rest” isn’t a big deal. What is a big deal is the fact that even though Elbert was the Sunday starter going into Friday’s game, Joe Torre still brought him out of the bullpen into a tie game in the 12th. After a strikeout of Adam LaRoche, Yuni Escobar singles, scoring one of the two men Ramon Troncoso left, and then Ryan Church hit a three-run homer, effectively ending the game.

I understand why Torre wanted to have Elbert in there at this point – LaRoche is a lefty and Escobar has a reverse split, hitting worse against lefties than against righties – but at some point, don’t you have to worry about what you’re doing to your Sunday starter? Elbert’s now pitched in two of the three days previous to his first big league start, and while 19 pitches combined isn’t a huge amount, it’s also not the rest that most starting pitchers recieve. Besides, if you really wanted a lefty in that situation, then maybe you shouldn’t have wasted Hong-Chih Kuo on a one-out injury-replacement appearance after Chad Billingsley left the game.

It’s hard enough to be a starting pitcher in the big leagues, and I can’t even imagine how much harder it is to be doing it for the first time. We’ll have to see how much the added difficulty of the lack of rest has on Elbert – and if he ends up with a 2.2 inning outing that leads to a bullpen game, in addition to the uncertainty surrounding Billingsley, this could lead to huge problems headed into the biggest series of the year in San Francisco.

Let’s Shake Up That Roster

Dylan Hernandez of the LA Times has some news on roster changes that are about to happen… and they feel a little familiar.

MSTI, July 28th:

But it’s also time to add some new blood to third base, and I’m not talking about Mark Loretta. Remember Tony Abreu? Not only is he not dead, he’s tearing up the PCL (1.026 OPS!) and is particularly on a hot streak lately (.475 BA with 3 homers in his last 10 games). Injuries almost ruined his career, but don’t forget that we looked upon him as a huge part of the future at one point.

Why not give the old man a breather once or twice a week – which might also help his second half slide – while playing the hot hand in Abreu?

Hernandez, today:

Infielder Tony Abreu is expected to be called up today from triple-A Albuquerque

abreujumps.jpgHey! That’s a great idea – wish I’d thought of it. Seriously, though, this can only help the team. Casey Blake has turned it around a bit lately (1.167 OPS over his last 8 games, though he still hasn’t homered in over a month), but he’s had a rough second half, and Orlando Hudson is coming off two lousy months of June and July. When you’ve got a guy like Abreu – and remember, talent has never been the issue with him, it’s health – tearing up AAA, you can’t help but want to see him in the bigs. Remember, Hudson isn’t signed for next year, and if he doesn’t turn it around, you wonder if they let him walk and see if Abreu can handle second base.

Moving on, after Hernandez also adds that Ronald Belisario’s return is imminent, we have news on the 5th spot in the rotation. Hmmm…

MSTI, August 6 (and about a dozen other times):

It’s not like there’s not other options; I detailed how great of an idea Charlie Haeger would be the other day, and we’ve been calling for Eric Stults – who’s only thrown a complete-game MLB shutout in each of the last two years! – all season.

Hernandez, today:

Eric Stults was pulled from his start in Albuquerque on Thursday night after only three innings, a sign that he could be promoted to replace Jason Schmidt as the Dodgers’ starter in San Francisco on Monday. Stults, who was in the rotation until a sprained thumb landed him on the disabled list on May 31, bumped fists with teammates and waved at Albuquerque Manager Tim Wallach as he exited the game.

Yes! Yeeesss! Please let this be true. There’s no way that Stults isn’t going to be more effective than Schmidt right now – none. I also wonder if part of this is to avoid the embarrassment of Schmidt having to go back to his former stomping grounds of SF and having him get lit up in front of all his old fans. There’s also the question about what happens to him. Does he get sent to the bullpen? DFA’d? Placed back on the DL? Does he simply walk away?

In fact, if we’re adding three players – Abreu, Belisario, and Stults – there’s quite a few roster decisions that need to be made. Since the usual option (send down Blake DeWitt!) has already been exhausted, I’m going to take a guess at what happens with no inside information whatsoever:

1) Schmidt gets moved off the 25-man roster for Stults. I doubt he hangs them up, and he’s clearly not one of the best 12 (okay, 20) pitchers right now, so the bullpen’s not the right option. I’ll go with a 90% chance of DL with a 10% chance of DFA. 

2) Scott Elbert gets sent down to AAA to make room for Belisario. Elbert’s been very good in short bursts, but I can’t help thinking that his future is still as a starter, so he might be able to step into Stults’ rotation spot with the Isotopes to get some longer outings.

3) James McDonald gets sent down to AAA to make room for Abreu. To be honest, this was the hardest call, and I’m not sure I’m convinced they’d drop down to 12 pitchers, but unless there’s a DL stint coming for a position player I don’t know about, there’s no obvious choice to drop. Juan Castro’s the only even slight possibility, and he’s been very good as a caddy for Rafael Furcal, so I don’t see it.

Of course, now that I’ve made these three predictions, expect exactly zero them to happen.

Free… Anyone Who’s Not Jason Schmidt!

schmidtvsbrewers.jpgYes, I’ve written this post before. (More than once.) No, I don’t enjoy dumping on someone who obviously worked his ass off to rehab and help the team, and who’s about to see their career end. But, come on – how long are we going to keep up this charade? If everyone’s big complaint is that 5-6 inning starts from Chad Billingsley and Clayton Kershaw are straining the bullpen, what about the guy who’s averaging just over 4 innings a start, and who hasn’t even made it out of the 4th inning in two of his four starts?

I know, “but MSTI – one of those four starts was a six inning outing in which he gave up just one hit and zero runs”, and that’s nice. But really, we’re going to look at that and think he was overpowering? Don’t forget what Chipper Jones said afterwards:

There’s just not that much difference between his changeup and his fastball right now.

Is that really engendering much confidence? There’s been about three pitchers in big league history who could win with an average fastball of 86 MPH and a changeup of 83 MPH, and Jason Schmidt’s not one of them. Here’s the most amazing stat, though: when Schmidt gets the ball in the strike zone, batters are making contact 91% of the time. When you can’t throw the ball over the plate because you know it’s going to get whacked, and you can’t get batters to chase your other stuff, how are you going to be successful? The answer is, of course, that you can’t.

Look, what this team needs from its lower-level starting pitchers right now is innings. At this point, I’d rather see our 5th starter go 8 innings allowing 4 runs than 5 shutout innings. There’s a whole lot of meaningless innings to swallow up between now and October, and we need someone who can take them. It’s not like there’s not other options; I detailed how great of an idea Charlie Haeger would be the other day, and we’ve been calling for Eric Stults – who’s only thrown a complete-game MLB shutout in each of the last two years! – all season.

The Jason Schmidt experiment needs to end. He’s not helping the team down the stretch; he’s not going to be on the playoff roster; and he’s not going to be a Dodger in 2010. So what exactly are we still doing with him?

Joe, are you listening?

Torre said that Schmidt is still scheduled to start again for the Dodgers when the fifth spot in the rotation comes up again next Monday. “He’s scheduled for Monday and we’ll go from there,” Torre said. “Last time was good. This time wasn’t as good as last time.”

Faaaaantastic.