Category Archives: Joc Pederson

Joc Pederson: The Best Prospect You’ll Probably Never See

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We talk a lot about prospects around here. Beyond the guys who have seen time in Los Angeles already, we talk about pitchers Zach Lee, who might make his debut this season, and Matt Magill, who just did. Obviously, we can’t get enough of Yasiel Puig discussion around when he might be up. We talk about Corey Seager and hope that he can fill the never-ending hole at third base, even though he’s not likely to be ready until 2015-16, and beyond that, everyone has their favorite lottery ticket to dream on, whether it’s a Zachary Bird or a Darnell Sweeney or a Ross Stripling. People get attached to a prospect, and they never want to let them go. (I’m looking at you, Blake DeWitt, and now you, Scott Van Slyke.) It’s the way things work, and that’s normal.

Then there’s Joc Pederson, and he stands alone. The 2010 10th-round pick has done nothing but hit in the minors, being named the 2012 organizational hitter of the year as well as the Southern League’s player of the week for the period ending April 21. That day was also his 21st birthday, making him one of the younger players in Double-A, and for all the attention Puig is getting in Chattanooga, note that Pederson’s line (.301/.379/.614) along with five homers is very comparable to that of his more highly-touted teammate.

Coming off a .313/.396/.516 campaign in High-A Rancho Cucamonga with 18 homers and 26 steals, that performance is getting Pederson some notice — rightfully so. Still, depending on who you believe, Pederson is either a fourth outfielder or a solid prospect, with the most recent scouting reporting coming from FanGraphs earlier this month:

while toolsy, Pederson would ultimately probably lack the range for center and the power traditionally associated with corner outfielders — but that he might be useful as a regular, anyway.

That jives with what I said on the “Dugout Blues” podcast earlier this week with Jared Massey & Dustin Nosler, suggesting that he may be a “tweener”, probably lacking the glove for center but perhaps not having the offensive profile to stand out in a corner.

That’s not really the point here, though — what I also said on that podcast is that I’d be absolutely shocked if Pederson ever plays a big-league game in Dodger blue. Despite his accomplishments, Pederson finds himself in an odd situation. Obviously, the Dodger outfield is under contract from now until the end of time in Carl Crawford, Matt Kemp, & Andre Ethier, yet at some point soon room is going to have to be made for Puig, assuming his recent driving arrest doesn’t set him back by too much. How exactly that’s going to happen, I do not know, but it’s going to require a major move on the part of Ned Colletti; if it’s that hard for the $42 million spring training legend to break in, then it’s doubly hard for the 10th-round pick.

But even moreso than that, we all know the Dodgers have trades to make this summer. They’ll need a shortstop, or a third baseman, or both. They might need another starting pitcher, second base may be an issue if Mark Ellis isn’t healthy, and we all know how Colletti loves to pick up relievers. Yet the farm has thinned out after last year’s trading spree, and that leaves his chips limited. Clearly, neither Puig nor Seager is going to be moved, and while neither Lee nor Magill should be considered untouchable, I imagine there’s some reticence to move more young starting pitching after seeing Rubby De La Rosa, Ethan Martin, and Allen Webster all head out last year. Sure, you could dangle Chris Reed or Garrett Gould, but how much value are they really going to bring back?

What you’re left with, then, is Pederson, and between the composition of the system and the roadblock ahead of him, he seems one of the most likely prospects to be used as a trade chip. Maybe that’ll put him in Phillies red or Padres navy, or in the colors of any one of a number of other teams. But what I really can’t see him in is Dodger blue, and while it’s not accurate to say “that’s sad” — obviously we have no idea what sort of deal might end up happening — it is a little melancholy. You get attached to a player coming up through the levels, and that’s normal, but there’s more than one way to extract value from a prospect. In this case, I’m betting that it’ll be via trade.

Projecting the Dodgers’ Minor-League Rosters: Double-A & Triple-A

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Editor’s note: Chris Jackson rounds off the minor league roster projections with Chattanooga & Albuquerque. Also, don’t forget to enter the Opening Day roster contest — open through 9pm PT tonight!

Van Slyke is one of nine outfielders who will vie for an Isotopes roster spot this spring. (Photo courtesy of the Isotopes)

Scott Van Slyke is one of nine outfielders who will vie for an Isotopes roster spot this spring. (Photo courtesy of the Isotopes)

Chattanooga Lookouts (Double-A Southern League)

Starting rotation: Onelki Garcia, Zach Lee, Aaron Miller, Rob Rasmussen, Chris Reed

All prospects, all the time, in east Tennessee this year! Garcia has the most pure stuff, but the least experience. Lee and Reed will hope their potential matches the results this season. Miller will have to fight to keep his starting spot after a middling season. Rasmussen will get some attention as the new guy in the organization.

Bulllpen: Geison Aguasviva, Steve Ames, Kelvin De La Cruz, Eric Eadington, Jordan Roberts, Andres Santiago, Chris Withrow

That is a lot of lefties, but it is hard to figure out where else to put them. De la Cruz is not a LOOGY and will give them a second long reliever to go with Santiago, who could start if Miller struggles. Aguasviva could fight his way to Albuquerque. Roberts is 27, so if he can’t stick here, his time with the Dodgers may be done. Ames and Eadington figure to share the closing job, though Withrow could see saves, too, now that the Dodgers have committed to him as a reliever. Just missed: Javier Solano

Catchers: Gorman Erickson, Christopher O’Brien

Erickson will be looking for some redemption after a lousy 2012. O’Brien was decent enough at Rancho to merit the promotion.

Infielders: 1B–J.T. Wise, 2B–Rafael Ynoa, SS–Alexis Aguilar, 3B–C.J. Retherford, UTIL–Joe Becker, Omar Luna

Wise and Ynoa have played well enough to earn promotions, but they are blocked at Albuquerque barring some trades. Aguilar is the pick I am least confident in; it could be a half-dozen other guys. In other words, please, Dodgers, sign some random Cuban defector shortstop to spare the poor fans in Chattanooga watching a guy with a career .662 OPS. Retherford had a big year at Rancho, but struggled with the Lookouts, so he will return here. Luna and Becker didn’t play a lot of shortstop last year, but they sure could this year. Just missed: Chris Jacobs 1B, Elevys Gonzalez 3B/2B, Miguel Rojas 2B/SS

Outfielders: LF–Yasiel Puig, CF–Joc Pederson, RF–Blake Smith, OF–Nick Buss, Bobby Coyle

Puig and Pederson are premium prospects. They both figure to play all three outfield spots here. Smith deserves to move up, and he certainly could, but for now I have him starting with the Lookouts. Buss and the talented but oft-injured Coyle return. Just missed: Kyle Russell

Final analysis: If some of the pitchers can translate their potential into results, then this team could be the favorite to win the Southern League. The rotation is six-deep and strong, while the bullpen is strong from both sides of the mound. The outfield should carry the offense, with shortstop being the only real concern on the infield. The Lookouts should be fun to watch this season.

Albuquerque Isotopes (Triple-A Pacific Coast League)

Starting rotation: Fabio Castro, Stephen Fife, Matt Magill, Matt Palmer, Mario Santiago

Magill is the legit prospect here. Fife returns and will be the first called up in the event of an injury to a starter in L.A. Palmer can chew up innings, but that is it. Castro was terrible last year with the A’s organization and might not last long in Albuquerque. Santiago is a gamble, with the Dodgers/Isotopes hoping he can carry over the success he found in Korea last year with the SK Wyverns.

Bullpen: Michael Antonini, Blake Johnson, Hector Nelo, Red Patterson, Paco Rodriguez, Cole St. Clair, Shawn Tolleson, Josh Wall

Antonini’s health is in question, so he might not crack this group. Rodriguez and Tolleson both deserve to pitch in the Majors, but I have Javy Guerra and Ted Lilly taking the last two spots. Johnson and St. Clair return in the long relief roles. Wall should close again. Patterson moves up, but it could easily be Ames instead. Nelo, a minor-league Rule 5 pick, gets the nod over the plethora of Triple-A vets signed this off-season. I am also betting that the veteran trio of Kevin Gregg, Mark Lowe, and Peter Moylan will opt out at the end of the spring. Just missed: Juan Abreu, Victor Garate, Gregory Infante, Wilmin Rodriguez, Luis Vasquez

Catchers: Jesus Flores, Matt Wallach

Flores could easily be subbed out for Federowicz if the Dodgers opt to have the prospect play every day and the veteran back up A.J. Ellis. Consider them interchangeable. Wallach has never hit, but he plays good defense and seems like a safe bet to the backup. Just missed: Eliezer Alfonzo, Wilkin Castillo, Ramon Castro

Infielders: 1B–Nick Evans, 2B–Elian Herrera, SS–Dee Gordon, 3B–Dallas McPherson, UTIL–Rusty Ryal, Justin Sellers

Evans always earned rave reviews for his defense, which could be a big help for Gordon’s wild throws (remember how Mark Teixeira made Derek Jeter look better back in 2009?). While it can be speculated that Gordon could or should be in the Majors, until he proves otherwise, I have him here. Sellers is another guy most people are counting out, but the Dodgers have not dumped him yet, even after his arrest in Sacramento. Herrera can, and likely will, play everywhere, but he should play almost every day. McPherson will DH against AL teams, since his back is unlikely to hold up for 144 games. Ryal gets the nod because the Isotopes need the left-handed bat. Just missed: Alfredo Amezaga UTIL, Brian Barden 3B, Ozzie Martinez SS

Outfielders: LF–Scott Van Slyke, CF–Tony Gwynn Jr., RF–Alex Castellanos, OF–Jeremy Moore

Unless Castellanos returns to the infield, this outfield is tough to figure out. Both he, Moore and Van Slyke are all right-handed hitters, so it would make a lot of sense for someone like Smith (who hits left-handed) to move up from Chattanooga. Unless the Isotopes only carry seven relievers (which, fat chance), it won’t happen unless the Dodgers move Van Slyke in a trade. Moore gets that backup spot because he can play all three positions and because the Dodgers obviously think very highly of him as he was the only free agent to participate in their prospect minicamp last month. Just missed: Matt Angle, Brian Cavazos-Galvez

Final analysis: This team does not look as talented as last year’s playoff squad, at least on paper. The rotation looks awfully suspect behind Fife and Magill. The bullpen could be good, at least. The lineup lacks left-handed bats, but should be able to score enough runs to keep games interesting. If the Dodgers can’t find any additional starting pitchers, however, it could be a long summer of 12-10 scores in Albuquerque, which this reporter is not very interested in watching anymore.

Two Dodgers Make the Keith Law 100, Plus Chris Withrow & Pedro Baez Find New Homes

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All sorts of news in the Dodger organization today…

*** Corey Seager & Zach Lee make the Keith Law Top 100 list.

Seager (#46) and Lee (#67) are the only two Dodgers who make the list. Seeing Seager that high is encouraging, but it also tells you a whole lot about how differently scouts can view prospects — last week, Jonathan Mayo put out his own Top 100 at MLB.com, and Seager wasn’t listed at all, while Yasiel Puig (#76) & Joc Pederson (#85) were. We’ll see how Baseball America‘s rankings, due out next week, see them.

21 year old Yasiel Puig, courtesy of EephusBlue

21 year old Yasiel Puig, courtesy of EephusBlue

In a chat today at ESPN.com, Law touched on why he didn’t include Puig or Pederson, noting that Puig’s short season and missed time due to the elbow infection makes any data on him extremely thin. He could, as Law noted, end up being very good, but it’s so difficult to know right now; he also included the somewhat odd note that “having shaken the man’s hand, he’s one of the oldest-looking 21-year-olds I’ve ever met”. As Justin D noted to me on Twitter, maybe that just means “Greg Oden disease”.

On Pederson, Law indicates that he still sees him as a fourth outfielder, and while that may be somewhat of a case of Pederson’s horrible AFL performance getting amplified since that’s where Law mainly saw him, that’s the general consensus I hear; Mayo seems to think more highly of him than most.

*** Chris Withrow is officially a reliever.

From Ken Gurnick’s report of last week’s “Young Guns” mini-camp:

Withrow, the Dodgers’ No. 1 pick in 2007, had early bouts with the yips and more recently chronic back problems. Withrow responded to a bullpen move late last year, and Honeycutt said it’s now permanent, hoping the role change can work Eric Gagne-like wonders for Withrow, whose electric arm is undisputed.

Maybe management recalls a hard-throwing second-rounder that struggled as a starter and was never tried as a reliever. Instead, the Dodgers let Joel Hanrahan leave as a free agent and he went on to be an All-Star closer. “Chris wanted the change,” Honeycutt said. “He likes attacking more. He reminds me a little of Gagne, somebody who might throw three or four innings as a starter but have one [bad] inning, and you can eliminate that if you’re only asking one inning of relief from him. Maybe one- or two-inning stints will be easier on his back. He’s got the arm.”

That’s unsurprising, and at this point it’s really a good thing. Even with the trades from last year thinning out the prospect depth, he’s still clearly fallen behind at least Lee & Matt Magill on the starting list. Withrow’s about to begin his fifth season in Double-A (most likely), and while he’s shown the big arm and the ability to miss bats (9.3 K/9), he’s never been able to harness his control or stay healthy. Allowing him to pitch in short stints might negate both somewhat, and Baseball Prospectus still ranked him as the #8 Dodger prospect in January, saying he “has the electric stuff to play up in short bursts out of the bullpen”.

*** Pedro Baez is officially a pitcher.

Hooray! We first heard an unconfirmed report of this in October — I was thrilled, noting that I’d been asking for it since at least 2010 — and from the same Gurnick article, it appears to be coming true.

Honeycutt mentioned Jansen, a transformed catcher, in reference to Baez, signed for $200,000 to be a power-hitting third baseman. Baez, a .247 hitter in six Minor League seasons, is starting over as a hard-throwing reliever a la Jansen, who came out from behind the plate to emerge as a bullpen strikeout king.

“They put him on the mound in instructional league and that fastball is really strong,” Honeycutt said of Baez, who turns 25 next month. “You talk about Kenley when you see the ball come out of his hand. He hasn’t been overwhelmed by thinking too much about pitching. He just sees the glove and throws it and that’s kind of refreshing.”

This is a move that’s long, long overdue because it was clear that Baez was absolutely never going to make it as a hitter — he even got demoted from Double-A back to High-A in 2012. Let’s temper those Jansen expectations, however, until we at least see the man on the mound in a professional game.

*** So long Chris Carpenter, but don’t get too excited.

Carpenter announced today that arm trouble will keep him out for the 2013 season, and from everything we heard it really sounded like this was a goodbye press conference that’s not officially being called a “retirement” so he doesn’t have to forfeit his 2013 salary. Obviously, many — myself included — noted that if the Cardinals need a starter, the Dodgers have more than one to offer. Still, it doesn’t seem that likely at the moment. Behind ace Adam Wainwright and veterans Jake Westbrook & Jaime Garcia, the Cards are loaded with young pitchers ready to step in to the rotation — guys like Lance Lynn, Shelby Miller, Trevor Rosenthal, & Joe Kelly. Even if they need to step outside, they could easily sign Kyle Lohse, who they know well and wouldn’t have to give up a pick to get. Not saying it’s impossible, but not likely; besides, it really sounds more and more like the Dodgers will keep their depth into camp to see how those returning from injury respond.