Your 2011 Albuquerque Isotopes (Updated)

Thanks to Christopher Jackson of the Albuquerque Examiner and the Isotopes themselves, we now know what the Opening Day roster for the 2011 AAA squad will look like. Keep in mind, of course, that Tim Wallach’s 2010 edition ran through approximately 287 players, so the crew you see today will hardly resemble what we see ending the season, thanks to injuries, promotions, and trades. They haven’t yet announced the actual roles of the pitchers, so I’m going to do my best guesses on that. Since it’s AAA in a high-offense environment, I won’t bag on them too badly for going with the dreaded 13-man staff.

Starting Rotation (5)
R Tim Redding
R John Ely
L Dana Eveland
R Carlos Monasterios
R Jon Link (who apparently made it through waivers after being DFA’d)

Relievers (8)
L Scott Elbert
L Randy Keisler
R Roman Colon
R Travis Schlichting
R Merkin Valdez
R Oscar Villarreal
R Jon Huber
R Ramon Troncoso

How about that – each member of the 13-man staff has seen previous big-league time. That’s either a very good thing (experience) or very bad thing (no highly-touted young prospect coming up), depending on how you look at it. This collection might change before the season even starts, of course, if Redding or Ely need to start in place of Jon Garland in San Diego this weekend.

Hitters (11 + 1 DL)
C JD Closser
C Damaso Espino
C Keyter Collado (DL)
1B John Lindsey
2B Justin Sellers
SS Dee Gordon
3B Russ Mitchell
IF Juan Castro
LF Jerry Sands
CF Trayvon Robinson
RF Jamie Hoffmann
OF Trent Oeltjen

Only six of the eleven bats – Closser, Lindsey, Mitchell, Castro, Hoffmann, and Oeltjen – have MLB experience, though that’s likely to change by season’s end. I didn’t expect that Gordon would start off in AAA, but the idea of having him, Sands, and Robinson all in the lineup together is going to make me want to catch more than my share of Albuquerque baseball. This lineup is likely to change shortly as well, with Ivan DeJesus almost certainly headed back to AAA this week when Casey Blake returns.

As you may remember, a few days before Christmas I took a shot at predicting what the Opening Day roster might be. Of the eleven bats, I nailed eight: Closser, Lindsey, Sellers, Mitchell, Sands, Robinson, Hoffmann, and Oeltjen. I’m taking a mulligan on two others; DeJesus would be here if not for Blake’s injury and will be here anyway soon enough, and A.J. Ellis would be here if Dioner Navarro hadn’t hurt himself in the last week of spring. I whiffed on Castro not going to AAA and Gordon starting in AA, assuming that Eugenio Velez and Travis Denker or an NRI would be there instead.

On the pitching side, I successfully got eight: Ely, Eveland, Monasterios, Link, Elbert, Villareal, Schlichting, and Troncoso. Redding, Colon, Keisler, and Valdez all signed after my post. I’ll take it.

Overall, the Isotopes seem to have an interesting collection of experienced – though not that exciting – pitchers, and young – and very exciting – bats. So there’s plenty of reasons to watch the ‘topes this year, considering you can expect to see at least five of these pitchers as fill-ins in LA later in the season, you can gauge the progression of Sands, Robinson, Gordon, & DeJesus, and you can root for Juan Castro to strike out every time so no one is tempted to recall him back to the big club yet again. Should be a fun season.

******

Where’s Josh Lindblom? He’s not listed on the Isotope roster, nor does he appear on the AA roster of the Chattanooga Lookouts (which does feature Rubby De La Rosa and Chris Withrow, among others). He pitched just two innings in big league camp, though I don’t recall hearing about any injury. My guess, for the moment, is that he’s going to remain in Arizona getting some work in until a roster spot opens up with the Isotopes.

(Update: lovely blog commenter c.lo points out that Lindblom is indeed on the updated AA roster. That can mean one of two things; either that it’s a procedural thing, and he is just getting some extra work in Arizona without taking up an AAA roster spot, or that his 2010 – 6.54 ERA, 13.5 hits/9 – was so dreadful that he’s being demoted back to AA for the first time since 2008.)

All Sorts of Moves

Talk about an active last 24 hours….

1) Travis Schlichting sent down, Charlie Haeger recalled. No surprise here, as we all knew Schlichting was gone as soon as he completed throwing four shutout innings in relief against Arizona on Wednesday. With the extra-inning games depleting the bullpen in the midst of a long stretch without a day off, you had to get a fresh arm up, and having a guy like Haeger makes sense.

Steve Dilbeck still hates it, though:

Almost sounds like they’re going to throw Haeger out there one last time to prove he cannot get it done. Somebody needs more evidence.

Haeger is a stand-up, competitive guy who would be the first to tell you he has pitched miserably. But he’s essentially a trick ball pitcher whose knuckleball hasn’t been tricky.

His time, I think, is running out.

…or maybe his rehab stint was coming to a close, and the Dodgers were forced to activate him or lose him, which is basically what Joe Torre said in that exact same article:

“We activated Haeger more out of necessity than really wanting to at this point,” Torre said. “I would feel a lot better if I was a little surer of his physical well-being, but after [Wednesday’s] game we’re kind of up against it.”

If the Dodgers were trying to “prove he cannot get it done”, wouldn’t you have just DFA’d him and brought up Jon Link? I can’t defend Haeger’s performance thus far, but if his foot injury was really a thing, he deserves a shot as the long man to see if he’s any better, especially in this time of bullpen need.

2) Josh Lindblom moves from the rotation to the bullpen. Chad is going to be thrilled, and I agree with him; Lindblom probably only has the stuff to be a mediocre starter, but he could be a solid reliever. It’s interesting what’s become of the ABQ starting rotation, though. Look what’s happened to the top five from the beginning of the year: McDonald (injured), Ely (promoted), Elbert (still there, but wild), Towers (released), and Lindblom (bullpen). There’s a few good relievers still there, but probably not a lot of help for the starting rotation unless we start getting into Seth Etherton and Tim Corcoran territory.

3) Jeff Weaver and Casey Blake move from the game to the bench. Weaver came into the game but left without throwing a pitch, thanks to a blister. Blake was scratched with back spasms. Neither seems serious.

4) James Loney moves… in exactly the same direction as always. Last winter in the Maple Street Press Dodgers Annual, I wrote that Loney’s 2009 was a season that “only a math major could love”, since he had exactly the same amount of plate appearances (651), homers (13), RBI (90), and steals (7) as he did in 2008. What’s he on pace for in 2010? 12 homers and 96 RBI. He’s like clockwork – though he does somehow already have 7 stolen bases, and I doubt he’s really going to hit his projected total of 21.

5) Manny Ramirez is moving… in completely the wrong direction. Since he returned from the disabled list on May 8, he’s hitting .188/.288/.304, with four extra base hits in almost a month. It’s starting to become worrisome. Everyone loves to yell “steroids!”, of course, but he’s also 38 years old. He’s a huge part of why the Dodger offense is struggling right now.

Tonight, Clayton Kershaw goes against Kenshin Kawakami, who’s having a pretty average season. His ERA is 4.66, his WHIP is 1.321, neither of which are great, but not terrible either. Yet his record is somehow 0-7. Prediction: he goes 6.1 innings, allowing 2 hits and a run.

Now Taking Applications…

In my frustration over the horrendous yet predictable outing by Ramon Ortiz last night, I said that I didn’t know who should start the next time around, but that it couldn’t be him. That’s a little unfair of me; if I’m going to say there’s a problem, I should at least offer a solution, right? Well, in the comments of that post, I got to discussing alternatives to Ortiz and… well, it’s ugly.

First, the good news.  The next time the 5th starter spot comes up again is Monday, which is conveniently an offday. So long as Joe Torre doesn’t do something stupid like push everyone back a day and just lets the Ortiz spot be skipped, we can avoid the issue for another turn through the rotation. The bad news is, that spot would next come up on May 29th, in Colorado of all places. So not only is no one beating down the door to get the job, it’s in the worst possible location. You’d think that with well-regarded prospects like James McDonald, Scott Elbert, and Josh Lindblom in AAA, at least one would be worthy of the job, but a quick look at their recent appearances says otherwise.  Granted, ABQ is a hitter’s park, but that’s not enough to excuse numbers so ugly that McDonald’s 5.77 ERA is the best of the top four starters.

McDonald did throw five scoreless in the outing before this. But damn, these trends are not going in the right direction.

Elbert’s done a better job at keeping runs off the board, for sure… but look at the walk numbers and tell me that’s not terrifying. On the season he’s walked 28 batters in 32.1 innings. No wonder he’s not getting past five innings.

Lindblom’s interesting, because while his season stats look lousy (6.05 ERA), he’s got a nice 39/14 K/BB ratio. That said, he’s coming off two lousy starts himself (including walking six in four innings), so it’s not like he’s forcing the Dodgers’ hand here.


Ha! And to think I was worried about him getting a callup when I saw the team in New York. What an absolute disaster he’s been; if anything, he should be worried about sticking with the Isotopes, much less making it to the bigs.

The remaining starts in ABQ were split between John Ely, who we already know all about, and Tim Corcoran, who hasn’t been in the bigs since 2007 and has made just three starts in AAA. So there’s no help coming from there, and there’s no one in AA worth calling up (sidenote: all spring, I had my “NRI invite list” on the sidebar, and I’d cross names out as they got cut or shipped out. I could never figure out what happened to John Koronka, who I disliked even the non-roster signing of, and then never heard from again. At the time, I wrote, “Man, he sounds unqualified to even try out for the Isotopes.” So what happened to him? He’s in AA ball, allowing a 1.500 WHIP. It’s time to find a new career, I think.)

Granted: the start is still over a week away, so it’s possible that McDonald, Elbert, or Lindblom rip off a nice start or two and get back in the team’s good graces. Possible, but extremely unlikely, so help isn’t going to be coming from AAA.

That being the case, you’re left with two options. First, there’s Charlie Haeger, who will be nearing the end of his rehab stint by then. He’s been good but not great in his two starts for Inland Empire, and it seems that his “injury” has healed. That said, even I’m not dying to see him back in the rotation, and especially not in Coors Field.

So there’s only one right answer here, and it’s the answer Joe Torre dreads the most. You have to start Carlos Monasterios. The Rule 5 pick has been surprisingly effective as the team’s longman, not allowing more than one earned run in any of his twelve appearances. With the bullpen rounding back into form and Jeff Weaver back, Monasterios’ role as a reliever has lessened, and he already showed he could survive as an emergency starter, allowing one run in four innings against Pittsburgh.

Does anyone really think that Ortiz can outperform Monasterios right now? Of course not. With the limited options, it’s the only right choice – and then what you do is DFA Ortiz as soon as Haeger’s rehab stint is up, pushing Haeger to the bullpen and perhaps using him as a tag-team partner assuming that Monasterios won’t go deep into the games.

Please Don’t Make Me Watch Josh Towers

In the aftermath of today’s extra-inning win over the Nationals (2 homers for Casey Blake! 2.2 scoreless for Carlos Monasterios!), Dylan Hernandez dropped some sobering news:

Vicente Padilla to the DL with a sore forearm; Jon Link being recalled.

So in the last 36 hours, the Dodgers have placed their most accomplished hitter and their Opening Day starter on the DL. Fantastic. But with usual spot starter Jeff Weaver on the DL himself, it also means the club doesn’t have any idea who is going to start in Padilla’s place on Tuesday in New York – a game which not only is going to be on ESPN, but which I will be in attendance for.

The only reliever on the roster who could concievably step in would be former starter Ramon Ortiz, but that’s not a possibility I’m even remotely prepared to accept. What’s far more likely is that Link is up for just the next two games, before being sent back to AAA once again in favor of that day’s starter. But who? Here’s the options from among the current Albuquerque rotation:

James McDonald. Hasn’t pitched since last Sunday, when he left after just one inning with a broken fingernail. He’s hardly been overwhelming when healthy – 4.97 ERA, 17 hits allowed in 12.2 innings.

Scott Elbert. Tonight’s scheduled starter, but missed the game to be with his wife as she gives birth. In addition, Elbert’s been lousy so far – in 14 innings over three games, he’s allowed 13 ER while walking 11 (though striking out 16).

Josh Lindblom. Scheduled to pitch on Sunday, but he’s been hit even harder than Elbert. Despite a nice 13/3 K/BB ratio, he’s allowed 24 hits in 14 innings, which helps explain that 5.79 ERA.

John Ely. Slotted to go on Monday, and he’s pitched well in his first season in AAA (and with the Dodgers), putting up a 3.00 ERA and a 12/8 K/BB ratio.

Josh Towers. Towers has the terrifying trifecta: Tuesday’s his regular turn, he’s off to a decent start (3 ER in 12 IP), and he’s a veteran over 30.

Interestingly enough, none of them have pitched since Friday. ABQ was rained out on Saturday, and 33-year-old Seth Etherton (6.30 ERA in 23 MLB games, none since 2006) started tonight’s game in place of Elbert.  None of Lindblom, Ely, or Towers are on the 40-man roster, but that’s not really a huge issue since Cory Wade or Brad Ausmus can still be moved to the 60-day DL.

Now, in any normal situation, I’d say that McDonald or Elbert would be the no-doubt choices here.  Yet the fact that each has missed time due to either personal or injury issues, plus the fact that neither’s been all that great anyway, means that this isn’t a normal situation. Lindblom’s been hit hard, and while Ely’s been good I just can’t see them making that move. So as much as I hate to think it, say it, or write it, I really think this situation has “Josh Towers” written all over it.

On the other hand, you could just send Tommy Lasorda to do a rain dance. By the looks of the clouds gathering outside my window, this could be a rainy couple of days in the city.

At the Very Least, ABQ Should Have Some Pitching Talent

Yesterday, I shared several pitching news and notes, both good (Monasterios) and bad (Kuo, McDonald). The constant flux in the pitching staff seems to be the news du jour right now, since not only did we see Chad Billingsley toss three scoreless innings yesterday while working on adding a changeup, we get to read about Eric Gagne’s struggles and we may have gained some insight into who’s really in competition for the last few spots on the staff. Ramona Shelburne tweets:

Torre said he’s very interested in how Josh Towers, Josh Lindblom and Jon Link throw today. All are candidates to make the team this year.

Towers was signed as a non-roster invite in December, Lindblom nearly made the team last year, and Link was part of the return for Juan Pierre from the White Sox. All three pitched well in yesterday’s finale in Tawain (Towers: 3 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, Lindblom: 3 IP, 3 K, 0 ER, Link: 1 IP, 2 H, 2K, 0 ER), though if you can’t do well against that level of competition you shouldn’t even be in camp.

With the uncertainty at the back of the staff, one should expect that the leaders of the competition will still change about 20 times in the next 3 weeks, but don’t sleep on Jon Link in this race. He’s the only one of the three on the 40-man roster (though of course this is hardly limited to just these three), so he’s got that in his favor, and even though he’s a newcomer to the organization who most people know nothing about, he’s not without his merits. Here’s the quick scouting report we linked to from SoxProspects.com when he was acquired:

Accolades

  • 2009 White Sox Best Slider (Baseball America)

Scouting report
Link has struck out a lot of batters in the minors because he has a very good slider, but his fastball and change are solid offerings as well. His fastball usually sits 93-94 m.p.h. and has some sink on it. His changeup has gotten better, helping him get lefties out, but he walked almost a batter an inning against lefties in 2009 for Charlotte. He has the stuff to pitch in the bigs, but he needs to make strides with his control. Link should contend for a spot in the 2010 bullpen if he proves he can throw more strikes.

Major League Outlook: Average middle reliever

As I noted at the time, he’s struck out 10.5/9 in each of his last two minor league seasons, so clearly the ‘stuff’ is there. It’s obviously early, but he’s yet to walk a batter in camp – and he’s just turned 26, so he’s not a young kid who needs protecting. If someone unexpected is going to sneak onto the roster, why not someone like Link rather than the 33-year-old Towers, who has 5.1 MLB innings in the last two years and hasn’t even been league-average since 2005?

Elsewhere: Garret Anderson’s going to make his Dodgers debut today, but only at DH, so the chances that he blows out a hamstring today probably drop to just 75% or so. Baseball Prospectus has a nice interview with farm director DeJon Watson, mostly focusing on Ivan DeJesus Jr. and Dee Gordon. UniWatch has a story full of pictures from the very first Dodger spring training in Vero Beach from 1948, including the one below. They also note that despite all of the hand-wringing over the club leaving Vero last year, they’d trained in more than their share of locales prior to 1948:

For the first half of the 20th Century, the Brooklyn Dodgers were a somewhat nomadic bunch when it came to their spring training home. In fact, prior to 1947, they trained in the following locations: Charlotte, N.C. (1901); Columbia, S.C. (1902-1906); Jacksonville (1907-1909); Hot Springs, Ark. (1910-1912); Augusta, Ga. (1913-1914); Daytona Beach (1915-1916); Hot Springs, Ark. (1917-1918); Jacksonville (1919-1920); New Orleans (1921); Jacksonville (1922); Clearwater (1923-1932); Miami (1933); Orlando (1934-1935); Clearwater (1936-1940); Havana (1941-1942); Bear Mountain, N.Y. (1943-1945); Daytona Beach (1946); and while they remained in Florida in 1947, they would also hold spring training in Havana (1947); and Ciudad Trujillo, Dominican Republic (1948), due to the racist atmosphere pervasive in the American South at the time, since 1947 would be the year Jack Roosevelt Robinson would break baseball’s color barrier.