Category Archives: Luis Cruz

The Fine Line Between Panic and Inactivity

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mattingly_mcgwire_arizona_2013-04-13Fire Don Mattingly! Terminate Sue Falsone! Recall Yasiel Puig! Bring up Zach Lee!

Panic moves, one and all, and yet it’s in no way surprising that they’re the kind of moves many Dodger fans are clamoring for. Most of these fall under this this ill-conceived equation:

1) The team absolutely must do something
2) Fire/Recall/Cut {person name} is something
3) Therefore, the team should fire/recall/cut {person name}

I think you can see that there’s a lot of missing pieces there in that line of reasoning. It’s May 6 and the team is four games under .500 while dealing with an endless stream of injuries. I won’t pretend that time is infinite here — losses in April & May count just as much as they do in September — yet it’s far too soon to make major, irrevocable moves for the sake of making them.

I consider firing Mattingly to fall under that category. If you look back through the site’s archives, you’ll see that I don’t have endless love for his work, and in fact I was disappointed that he was selected over Tim Wallach in the first place. While I admire his ability to run a clubhouse and am far from blind to the awful ownership conditions he had to deal with in his first two seasons, if he’s let go at some point, I won’t be too broken up about it. (If that happens via some sort of bunt-related communication, all the better.)

But to do so now, on May 6, sends the wrong message. It shows panic at a time when keeping calm is paramount. It shows that the manager’s decisions have more impact on the team’s failures than the absences of Zack Greinke & Hanley Ramirez or the struggles of Matt Kemp. It might actually scare off future candidates, and it almost certainly doesn’t help for 2013 because there’s little coherent case anyone can make that Wallach or Davey Lopes or Trey Hillman are clear upgrades.

It’s too soon to panic. Now, all that being said, this malaise can’t go on forever, and I’m sympathetic to those who insist that a message must be sent. Disabling Mark Ellis for Chris Capuano, as they are likely to do today, isn’t enough. At least one move that’s based on performance rather than injury needs to be made, and that just has to be to DFA Luis Cruz, hitting .091/.116/.091 in 70 plate appearances. You can argue that his slick glove warrants his job, but that holds less water on a team that has Juan Uribe & Nick Punto; you can argue that it should be Justin Sellers, yet that move brings less impact. Cruz came into the season as the starting third baseman and has been a dreadful flop, and it’s time to send a message that even on a team as battered as this one, certain standards must be kept. Whether that means you add Scott Van Slyke or Tim Federowicz or Peter Moylan matters little to me; it’s the intention that does.

If not, as seems likely? Well, the one move I’d be in favor of approximately 365 days a year is to make some changes in the general manager’s office. Unfortunately, that seems as unlikely now as it ever has. Something has to give, while the season still has legs.

The Luis Cruz Experiment Just Isn’t Working Out

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luis_cruz_looks_inOn August 29th of last season, the Dodgers went to Colorado and jumped out to a 10-1 lead against the Rockies, nearly blowing it by allowing seven runs in the eighth in a game better remembered for an A.J. Ellis grand slam and for being the final one Kenley Jansen pitched before his cardiac issues came up again.

As it turns out, none of those otherwise noteworthy items would end up being the most remarkable memory from that game. In the top of the eighth, Luis Cruz led off against 27-year-old Colorado rookie Will Harris, pitching in his ninth major league game. Harris walked Cruz on six pitches, putting on the first of three leading up to the Ellis grand slam.

Cruz hasn’t walked (unintentionally) in 169 plate appearances since. It’s becoming an enormous problem.

As we all remember, Cruz became something of a folk hero last year, hitting .323/.339/.447 after August 17 as the rest of the Dodger offense crumbled around him. Despite our worries that he never walked, that a .340 BABIP in that time was unlikely to be sustained, and that more than a decade of truly lousy minor league performance carried with it more weight than six weeks of admittedly very good play in the bigs, Cruz’ fans were among the most vocal of anyone, insisting that he’d earned his job and that we were all blind for having missed him.

Yet here we are, nearly a month into the season, and we’re not here to merely talk about how Cruz has underperformed expectations. We’re unfortunately going to have to have a conversation about just how bad this has been on a historical scale. He’s already in the top six of post-integration Dodgers as far as most consecutive plate appearances without a walk, and at least Steve Garvey had 23 extra base hits (including eight homers) when he was somehow going two months without a walk in early 1982.

Let’s start with just this season so far, and…. oh, that’s not great.

2013 lowest wOBA, min 50 PA
5. Dustin Ackley, .174
4. Clint Barmes, .155
3. Aaron Hicks, .148
2. Jeff Keppinger, .137
1. Luis Cruz, .089

So Cruz is the worst hitter in baseball this season among regular players, and it’s not even particularly close. Wonderful.

Yet it somehow gets even darker, because Cruz has done something none of those players has. Not only does he not have a single unintentional walk, he doesn’t have an extra base hit. His four hits are all singles, and that puts him in some rough company. Dating back to 1993, there’s only been a few instances of players to start their season with at least 50 plate appearances of walk-free, extra base hit-free, ball…

Rk Strk Start End AB ▾ H 2B HR BB BA OBP SLG OPS Tm
1 Adam Kennedy 2005-05-02 2005-05-22 56 14 0 0 0 .250 .263 .250 .513 LAA
2 Shea Hillenbrand 2007-04-02 2007-04-25 56 13 0 0 0 .232 .246 .232 .478 LAA
3 Emmanuel Burriss 2011-04-28 2011-06-11 53 14 0 0 0 .264 .264 .264 .528 SFG
4 Anderson Hernandez 2006-04-03 2006-09-11 53 6 0 0 0 .113 .113 .113 .226 NYM
5 Nyjer Morgan 2012-04-06 2012-04-27 51 9 0 0 0 .176 .208 .176 .384 MIL
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used

 

At the top is Adam Kennedy. Of course it’s Adam Kennedy, and Cruz has about two more games to avoid being at the top of this list. Even then, at least some of these guys were dropping some singles in, because I don’t think anyone would be complaining if Cruz was hitting .250. Instead, he’s at .087/.122/.087, and you can thank a Jeremy Affeldt intentional walk and a Darren O’Day hit by pitch for that slight boost in OBP. Even fantastic defense, which Cruz has admittedly provided, can’t make up for the kind of black hole performance at the plate we’re seeing by a player who is popping up approximately 140% of the time.

I get, of course, that the reaction might be “you can’t always talk about small sample size, especially when saying not to call up Dee Gordon or Yasiel Puig, and then put undue importance on only 50 plate appearances.” That’s fair, but the small sample size here isn’t the first month of the season. It’s the six weeks of 2012 that stands out as being the outlier, because there’s 12 years of minor league performance that says that he’s not a major league hitter. If you’re Matt Kemp, with years of top performance on your resume behind you, you get slack to work through your issues. If you’re Cruz, with a .296 career OBP in the minors, it’s not quite the same.

It’s not working, and the team needs a change. So what’s to be done? He’s out of options, so he can’t simply be sent to the minors without being designated for assignment first, though it’s arguable if anyone would claim him. Frankly, I’m not sure that’s the right choice anyway, given that it’s not yet time for Gordon — though that could change if he keeps playing well in ABQ, but the thought of a Gordon / Hanley Ramirez left side sounds just awful from a defensive point of view — and it’s not like calling up Elian Herrera or Alfredo Amezaga or Rusty Ryal is really worth anyone’s time.

As much as I hate to say it, Nick Punto and Juan Uribe deserve playing time as much — if not more — than Cruz does right now. Though he does provide solid defense, so do they. At some point in the next ten days, Ramirez will return to replace Justin Sellers, and that will further diminish the left side playing time for everyone. That won’t solve the problem, however; either the Dodgers will be convinced that Gordon is the answer, or they’ll need to trade every non-Puig prospect in the system for Chase Headley. (Seriously, the cost for him will be astronomical. Think Zach Lee, Joc Pederson, & Garrett Gould, then add someone else, too.)

If Cruz does happen to turn it around in the next few games, I’ll be happy to listen to his vocal defenders and eat crow on this. But I don’t hear much from those fans these days, and we’ve seen little to indicate that Cruz is anything more than a Quad-A type who had a nicely-timed hot streak. It’s time to accept that reality.

Is Ted Lilly Actually More Appealing Than Chris Capuano & Aaron Harang?

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92topps_tedlillyI’m fully aware of the source here, so take it with a giant grain of salt, but I have to admit I was surprised to see this from Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe this morning:

Ted Lilly, LHP, Dodgers — Growing interest in the lefty, who missed most of last season after May, as he makes his way back from shoulder surgery. There seems to be more interest in the 37-year-old Lilly than in Aaron Harang or Chris Capuano, two extra Dodgers starters who also could be dealt. The Dodgers are holding on to all of them until they are assured that Chad Billingsley is 100 percent ready after undergoing treatments to his elbow this offseason that enabled him to bypass Tommy John surgery.

The bit about Lilly apparently receiving more interest than Capuano or Harang is shocking to me, given that Lilly is A) older B) coming off a season ruined by arm injury and C) much more expensive than either. Teams can’t really have been fooled by numbers like “5-1, 3.14″ when they masked some of the worst peripherals of his career, can they? I sure hope not, but I’ve also assumed he’d be the most likely of the trio to stay just because he’d be the hardest to move. If that’s not accurate, then that’s a deal to make, quickly. For reasons we’ve discussed before — namely, his tendency to give up homers and inability to hold runners on base — he’s an imperfect relief option.

******

Of course, the big news from last night was the brawl between Canada & Mexico, which was mostly precipitated by Luis Cruz essentially ordering Mexican pitcher Arnold Leon to throw at Canadian outfielder Rene Tosoni. As I sat in Madison Square Garden watching the video on my phone during halftime of the Knicks game, my first thought was, “I certainly hope Adrian Gonzalez isn’t at the bottom of that pile.”

Gonzalez was fine, but I’m trying to figure out what’s more indefensibly stupid here — Cruz’ actions over a stupid bunt by a slow-footed catcher in a situation where run differential matters, which Chad Moryiama details perfectly, or the WBC’s reasoning behind issuing no suspensions:

Because at least one club — and potentially both — will not advance to the second round, WBCI has determined that disciplinary measures would not have a meaningful corrective impact.  Thus, discipline will not be imposed beyond today’s seven game ejections.  It is our firm expectation that the members of Team Mexico, Team Canada and all the tournament’s participating teams will learn from this incident and set a better example — one that befits the sport they share — in the future.

So, you can order a beaning, start a brawl, throw a punch, and nothing happens? Awesome. You might as well just outright tell players that kind of behavior is acceptable. Mexico was eliminated when the United States beat Italy last night, but Canada plays the Americans today. You’d think that having Canadians missing today’s game, or maybe even having some Mexicans being ineligible for the first game of the next WBC, might have some sort of “meaningful corrective impact.”

Fortunately, it’s unlikely that any of this affects the actual MLB season, so Cruz should still be in the lineup on Opening Day. Both Gonzalez and Cruz should rejoin the Dodgers tomorrow.

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Dodgers
Rockies
SS
Gordon
CF
Fowler
2B
Schumaker
2B
Rutledge
CF
Kemp
RF
Cuddyer
1B
Uribe
C
Rosario
3B
Herrera
3B
Nelson
C
A.Ellis
SS
LeMahieu
RF
Castellanos
1B
Wrigley
LF
Amezaga
LF
Parker
P
Kershaw
P
Francis

Today’s Dodger game against Colorado is being broadcast only by the Rockies, but it can be seen on MLB.tv without blackout restrictions for those of you lucky enough to have it. (It’ll also be on Dodger radio, both KLAC & KTNQ.) You’ll notice that Clayton Kershaw is not only on the mound but in the lineup as well, as the team moves away from using the designated hitter so their pitchers can get some action at the plate. Matt Kemp starts in center and Yasiel Puig is expected to enter in reserve, so it’s a game worth watching if you’re able.

Also, the team has added a minor-league “B” game against the Reds today, partially due to the rain shenanigans that cost innings on Friday. Steve Ames, Stephen Fife, & Matt Magill will all see time in that game, with Matt Wallach catching.

No Bigger Question Than What Luis Cruz Is

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92topps_luiscruzGlad to see we’re not the only ones a little apprehensive about counting on Luis Cruz for an entire season. From Bill Plunkett in the Orange County Register…

Dodgers manager Don Mattingly reiterated Saturday that Luis Cruz will get the first shot at being the team’s everyday third baseman this spring.

But that didn’t stop Mattingly from talking with Scott Rolen to feel out the possibility of adding the free agent as a veteran option. Mattingly confirmed the Dodgers have had internal discussions about that possibility and he reached out to the fellow Indiana native a few weeks ago in a preliminary attempt to gauge Rolen’s interest.

Later, Plunkett added…

Mattingly admitted he has “a little concern” about whether Cruz can replicate his performance from 2012 (.297 with six home runs and 40 RBIs in 92 games) over a full season. But his big concern on the infield is whether Hanley Ramirez can improve defensively and be the everyday shortstop. If Ramirez’s defense is not satisfactory, that could create a domino effect of problems for the Dodgers.

It’s nice to have confirmation of the Dodger interest in Rolen that was reported earlier this month, and even nicer to know that the hot final six weeks that made Cruz into a folk hero haven’t completely fooled the team management. That said, Rolen’s a very flawed alternative at this point himself, and we’ve been over this so many times that there’s really almost no chance of an outside improvement this late in the winter.

Honestly, it puts us all in a very awkward position. Sure, we all hope that Cruz is for real, that he’s a solid player who helps this team win — an example, essentially, of “found money”, as opposed to the millions of real dollars spent on uncertainties like Carl Crawford. But objectively, it’s difficult to think that six weeks of good play — without walking, ever — overcomes 12 years of mediocrity, and the issue is that tons of fans aren’t thinking about this objectively — they’re 100% certain in their hearts that Cruz is the next big thing, that he’s the hard-working fighter who made his way through years of obstacles to finally become a local hero after getting the “chance he deserved”.

For the sake of winning Dodgers baseball, I sincerely hope we’re wrong about Cruz in 2013. For the sake of being able to trust any of our objective analysis in the future, it’d be a small measure of relief if we’re not. And for the sake of having different types of Dodger fans not be at each other’s throats, I hope it’s a happy medium — preferably one that involves having Cruz being a useful utility player while a more reliable option is in the starting lineup. Of course, that’s unlikely to happen at this point, so we’ll hope for the best.

Dodgers Depth Chart Analysis: Coming up Short at Shortstop

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Egads, shortstop. The one position I have been dreading writing on since I conceived of this multi-part project earlier this month. It is one of the toughest positions to fill at the minor-league level, chock full of athletes with a variety of issues that will probably keep them from ever attaining the status of everyday player at the big-league level. Many shortstops in the minors end up playing second, or becoming utility guys, or just disappearing into the netherworld of the Quad-A player who bounces from team to team, city to city.

Will Dee ever translate his speed and other tools into being a solid, stable, big-league shortstop? (Photo courtesy of the Albuquerque Isotopes)

Will Dee Gordon ever translate his speed and other tools into being a solid, stable, big-league shortstop? (Photo courtesy of the Albuquerque Isotopes)

Even going to Asia is usually not an option for these guys, as Japanese and Korean teams almost universally keep domestic players at all the up-the-middle positions. The life of a vagabond minor-league shortstop is a lonely one, usually without much pay and even less stability. Still, teams have to fill out their full-season rosters, so someone has to play there.

For that, teams usually prize defense at an average level when seeking out shortstops for their Single-A through Triple-A teams. Guys who can swing a bat, too, usually do not stay in the minors long. A total of 13 MLB teams last season employed a foreign-born player at shortstop for the majority of the season. The American-born shortstop is often referred to as an endangered species, but in truth they still constituted the majority last season.

Nonetheless, the elite shortstop is a prize possession. Just ask anybody who plays fantasy baseball, the good ones go fast in the draft, even though there might be outfielders, first basemen, and pitchers who offer up more statistical value.

The Dodgers, with their lack of international spending, are not surprisingly quite short at shortstop down on the farm. Things are so thin that right now there is no obvious starter at Double-A Chattanooga after Jake Lemmerman was traded to the Cardinals for Skip Schumaker.

So read on for what little there is down on the Dodgers’ farm at the upper levels, while taking note of some talent forming up in the lower levels.

Dee Gordon: Pretty much everybody knows Gordon’s pluses and minuses. He can make the spectacular play with his tremendous range and cannon arm … but he often botches the routine play. He has game-changing speed … but does not hit much at all and he can’t take a walk to get on base. Plenty has been written about his transition from basketball to baseball as a teenager, his raw tools, his baseball bloodlines, etc. The Dodgers have had the opportunity to trade him, but for now it looks like he’s staying put, though it seems almost certain he opens with the Isotopes barring an injury to Hanley Ramirez or the complete implosion of Luis Cruz.

Justin Sellers: In a perfect world, Sellers would be the Dodgers’ late-inning defensive replacement, a slick fielder with a good, accurate arm but not much of a bat. The Dodgers, though, under Ned Colletti, have shied away from handing such responsibilities to young players, instead acquiring the Nick Puntos of the world. Sellers is clinging to a 40-man roster spot by the skin of his teeth, and he could get bumped off should someone else get signed to a big-league deal or one of the non-roster invitees forces his way to Los Angeles. For now, Sellers projects to serve as a utility player at Albuquerque, on tap for a call-up in the event of an injury to someone on the bench or a short-term injury to someone like Ramirez, Cruz or Mark Ellis.

Osvaldo Martinez: The Dodgers acquired him from the White Sox last summer for depth purposes. He is not on the 40-man but opted to stay with Los Angeles this off-season. Martinez hit .255/.296/.275 in 102 at-bats with the Isotopes and just .203/.246/.244 overall last year. He was once a high-average hitter with some speed but little pop, earning him the lofty status of being Baseball America’s No. 5 Marlins prospect after the 2010 season. Now he just seems to be a good glove off the bench, searching for the swing that left him. With plenty of other middle infield types in the mix for an Isotopes roster spot, Martinez is not guaranteed to still be with the organization come April.

Alfredo Amezaga: The ex-Marlin has returned to the Dodgers organization after playing in one game with Chattanooga in 2010 before missing the rest of the season due to problems with his surgically-repaired knee. A super utility player, Amezaga can play second, short, third, and the outfield. He will compete for a bench spot with Albuquerque after hitting .274/.336/.372 with six home runs, 42 RBI, and 12 stolen bases at Iowa (Cubs) last year.

Miguel Rojas: Another free-agent signee, the soon-to-be 24-year-old comes over from the Reds organization where he hit just .199/.263/.224 between Triple-A Louisville and Double-A Pensacola last season. He has played the vast majority of his career (460 games) at shortstop with a reputation as a decent defender who simply cannot hit (.234/.301/.282 career). Yet with so few options, the Dodgers might not have much choice but start him at Chattanooga. One would have to hope that the organization takes a long look at Cuban defector Aledmys Diaz, who is a free agent, and could slot in nicely with the Lookouts.

Alexis Aguilar: One of the Three Shortstops of the Apocalypse at Rancho Cucamonga last year, the 21-year-old Venezuelan hit an unimpressive .255/.301/.313 with one home run and 15 RBI for the Quakes. With Charlie Mirabal (.191/.240/.245) having been released, Aguilar figures to get a shot at moving up to Chattanooga by default and competing with Rojas for the Lookouts’ starting gig. Fans in Southeastern Tennessee might want to close their eyes for the season. Aguilar has played 126 games at shortstop, 50 at second base and 24 at third base in his career, so at worst he is a utility player with average defensive skills.

Casio Grider: The final member of the aforementioned TSA at RC, Grider hit a dismal .217/.286/.329 with two home runs and 11 RBI. At 25, he is getting awfully old for what he is, basically a utility player who spent more time at shortstop last year than second base, his previous position. Grider was a 14th-round pick out of Newberry College in 2009, marking him as purely an organizational player who hopes to move up to Double-A and keep his career going at least one more season.

Darnell Sweeney: Caution, this young man might actually have a future beyond the minors. A nice sleeper pick, the Dodgers selected him in the 13th round of last year’s draft out of Central Florida. Sweeney responded by hitting .294/.374/.430 with five home runs, 33 RBI and 27 stolen bases between Great Lakes and Ogden. John Sickels ranked him No. 18 among Dodgers’ prospects over at Minor League Ball. Dustin Nosler had him one spot higher at No. 17 on his list at Feelin’ Kinda Blue. Keep a close eye on Sweeney’s development, which will likely continue this year at Rancho Cucamonga. He lived up to expectations defensively, but keeping up his lofty debut hitting stats will be the challenge as he faces more advanced pitching.

Pedro Guerrero, Justin Boudreaux, Delvis Morales: Meet the trio of utility guys who actually appeared in more games at shortstop than other positions in 2012. Guerrero, no relation to the former Dodger, hit .220/.265/.387 with 10 home runs. He is a 24-year-old Dominican with no previous showing of any power (career .361 slugging). Boudreaux was the Dodgers’ 14th-round pick out of Southeastern Louisiana in 2011; he hit .201/.304/.312 with three homers and 36 RBI last year. Morales is a 22-year-old Dominican who hit .261/.341/.328 with zero homers, 23 RBI and 12 stolen bases. They will battle for bench spots at Rancho and Great Lakes.

Corey Seager: The crown jewel of Dodgers minor-league infielders, Seager may seem destined for third base but I will list him as a shortstop until the day he stops playing there. The 2012 first-round draft pick is one of the organization’s top prospects, ranking as high as No. 2 (Minor League Ball) on the preseason lists. Seager hit an impressive .309/.383/.520 with eight homers and 33 RBI at Ogden, going up against mostly older competition. The younger brother of Mariners third baseman Kyle Seager, Corey should move up to Great Lakes. At 6-3, 195, he is built like a third baseman, but there is always the chance he sticks at shortstop, with a big-league ETA of 2015 or 2016, at which point he could fill a major hole for the Dodgers.

Jesmuel Valentin: The son of former Dodger Jose Valentin, Jesmuel was drafted in the supplemental first round last summer. He showed decent, if not great, defensive skills in the Arizona League, while batting .211/.352/.316 with two homers and 18 RBI. Valentin’s bat has a ways to go, though the fact he drew 35 walks versus 24 strikeouts is encouraging. FanGraphs ranked him as the Dodgers’ No. 5 prospect, though most other lists put him in the 12-13 range. He could end up at second base or in a utility role down the line, but the Dodgers will try to keep him at shortstop as long as possible, hoping his bat develops and defense solidifies at shortstop. Valentin should hang back in extended spring training until Ogden’s season starts in late June.

So that wraps up shortstop, which is bleak at the top and somewhat promising down below. There are no guarantees for the Dodgers, much less any other team, but in Seager, Sweeney, and Valentin, at least there are some options coming along. The key to the present will likely be in whether or not Gordon can ever refine his tools, while one of the three of Seager/Sweeney/Valentin develops into a long-range replacement.

Next up, third base, where the hot corner is barely even spitting out a wisp of smoke.