Category Archives: Matt Guerrier

Army of Oh-Fers & Curse of 9th Inning Doom Dodgers to Defeat

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Rafael Furcal, 0-4 (with four left on base). Jamey Carroll, 0-4. James Loney, 0-3 with a walk. Jay Gibbons, 0-3 with a walk. Jerry Sands, 0-4 with three strikeouts. Other than Matt Kemp, who had a double and a homer among his three hits, the rest of the team went 3-29 (two of which came from Dioner Navarro) against something called an “Aneury Rodriguez” (a Rule 5 pick, like Carlos Monasterios was last year) and three Houston relievers. Once again, anemic Dodger offense wasted what was a generally solid pitching effort.

That it was even tied at one headed into the 9th was in large part due to Ted Lilly, who’s had his share of detractors around here. When the homer-prone Lilly allowed a leadoff dinger (on the first pitch, no less) to Michael Bourn, who has just two since the start of 2010 and 11 in parts of six MLB seasons, you’d have been well within your rights to cringe and wonder how bad this was going to get. (I know I did.) But to his credit, Lilly tossed six shutout innings afterwards, despite striking out only two, and Mike MacDougal & Javy Guerra each followed with scoreless frames.

Now I know Matt Guerrier picked up the loss here, as he gave up a double to Brett Wallace and a single to J.R. Towles to blow the game in the 9th. But for once, I don’t want to bag on Guerrier, who has really been the least of the concern in the beleaguered bullpen (ridiculous contract aside). It’s hardly his fault that the team couldn’t score more than one run, and that’s where the bulk of the blame lies here. Again.

However, the fact that yet another 9th-inning situation ended up sideways – even though this wasn’t a save situation – just goes to show how poorly the 9th has gone for the Dodgers this year. Check out their splits by innings, and keep in mind that this doesn’t even include today’s failure.

Split IP ERA PA R H 2B HR SO/BB BA OBP SLG OPS BAbip
1st inning 50.0 2.16 196 13 35 11 2 4.33 .194 .241 .300 .541 .232
2nd inning 50.0 4.86 210 28 51 14 7 3.00 .273 .320 .460 .780 .310
3rd inning 50.0 3.42 216 19 46 10 2 2.18 .254 .343 .354 .696 .328
4th inning 50.0 4.32 218 28 56 8 6 2.22 .289 .349 .423 .772 .333
5th inning 50.0 3.42 200 19 40 6 6 3.31 .217 .271 .359 .630 .250
6th inning 50.0 4.68 220 27 51 8 9 2.14 .263 .338 .454 .792 .300
7th inning 50.0 2.34 209 15 48 7 7 2.60 .249 .303 .404 .707 .279
8th inning 50.0 3.96 217 24 43 11 2 1.47 .239 .351 .344 .695 .306
9th inning 37.1 9.64 194 42 61 12 6 1.75 .359 .430 .547 .977 .423
Ext inning 7.0 1.29 27 1 5 0 0 2.50 .200 .259 .200 .459 .250
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 5/25/2011.

Does anything, which I may or may not have highlighted in bold red text, stand out to you there? Save situation or not, close game or a blowout, the Dodgers have seen the 9th inning become their teamwide house of horrors all season. Remember, that’s not including today, so the real number might be up around .990 or so. I don’t have the individual breakdowns handy so it’s hard to pinpoint the exact culprits, but let’s be honest about this: it’s been a team effort. I’m sure Jonathan Broxton leads that list, but he is by no means alone on it. Despite relatively good bullpen work over the last two weeks, this is a team that has just been unable to handle their 9th inning issues.

Combine that with a team that has sporadic – at best – offensive spurts, and that’s how you end up losing two of three to the worst team in the National League. With the day off tomorrow, I’m sure it’s going to be an uncomfortably long wait until they get a chance to try and set things right on Friday against the Marlins. The good news is, they might have Casey Blake back for that game. The bad news is, they’re seven games under .500 with the third worst run differential in baseball… and Casey Blake, of all people, could be seen as a monumental upgrade.

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Via Baseball America‘s Matt Eddy, Ian Snell has ended his short retirement and has joined the Isotopes down in AAA. Snell struggled in the spring for St. Louis and walked away rather than report to the minors. Still just 29, Snell had his moments in Pittsburgh, making 95 starts between 2006-2008 with FIP scores between 4.01-4.58, peaking at 3.5 WAR in 2007. He got off to what looked like a terrible start in 2009 (2-8, 5.36), but was right in line with his previous work (4.61 FIP), before being sent to AAA Indianapolis to dominate (47/13 K/BB, 4 earned runs in 37.1 innings). He was then shipped off to Seattle as part of the Jack Wilson/Jeff Clement deal, where he was generally awful for parts of two seasons before being allowed to leave after 2010.

Still, this is the kind of zero-risk signing I like. Snell’s not 37 and15 years past a prime he never had (yes, I’m talking about, Juan Castro), he’s 29 and not that far away from having been a useful major league starter. For AAA depth, and to serve as something like the 8th starter for the Dodgers (still behind John Ely), that’s a move totally worth making.

Matt Guerrier Doesn’t Have the Heart to Pitch the 8th Inning

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I’m joking, but not exactly in the way you might think. After Hiroki Kuroda went seven innings allowing just two runs (the 25th time in his 3+ years as a Dodger he’s done that), Matt Guerrier entered, and that’s where things started to go sideways.

Here’s the damage:


I make jokes about Guerrier because as painful as that list seems, it wasn’t really as bad as all that (and I’m someone who hated his signing in the first place). Both of his walks were intentional. The last run would have been saved had Dioner Navarro not dropped a perfect throw from Jerry Sands at the plate (hey, isn’t it great he’s up instead of A.J. Ellis?). And none of the hits were screaming line drives. The first, by Will Venable, was a bouncer between first and second that a better second baseman than Aaron Miles may have come up with. Jason Bartlett‘s single to left-center fell just out of the reach of Sands, and almost certainly could have been caught by Tony Gwynn or any number of outfielders more fleet of foot than Sands. The final one, by Cameron Maybin, was nothing more than a bouncing ground ball just out of the reach of Jamey Carroll at shortstop. Even on the wild pitch, you could make a good argument that it should have gone down as a passed ball by Navarro.

The point here isn’t to absolve Guerrier of blowing the game, because he did, and it looked bad. The point is that this is exactly the sort of bad luck / good hit placement / subpar defense that has often victimized Jonathan Broxton this season, yet the outcry over it won’t be 1/10000th as large. I know the reply to that will be “well, Broxton’s issues have come in the 9th inning while Guerrier was in the 8th”, but that’s silly: a game can be lost just as easily in the 8th inning as the 9th, as we saw tonight. All of Broxton’s issues aside – and there are issues, which I have never denied – baseball is still a game that largely relies on batted ball luck and the support of your defense, not ‘heart’. For a guy like Guerrier who’s never had strikeout stuff, being on a team that doesn’t always put out the best defensive squad behind him can lead to trouble. Tonight, we saw that combined with the whims of the BABIP gods, and the results weren’t pretty.

Oh well. At least Andre Ethier extended his hit streak.

Why Is Matt Guerrier Worth More Than Jon Rauch, Grant Balfour, Kyle Farnsworth & Brian Fuentes?

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A few weeks ago, I wondered if the Dodgers should look for another lefty for the bullpen. In the initial version, I completely forgot to include Matt Guerrier. Yesterday, Jon Weisman at Dodger Thoughts put together his initial 25-man roster and did the exact same thing – he forgot about Guerrier.

Why are we all having such a hard time remembering that Guerrier is a Dodger? Perhaps it’s because the signing, which most of us disapproved of at the time, isn’t looking any better as the winter goes along. In the last week, four free agent relievers signed multimillion dollar deals with teams that hope to contend in 2011. (I’m excluding Rafael Soriano from this conversation, as that deal wowed even Yankee fans used to excessive spending.) Jon Rauch left Minnesota to sign in Toronto, while the A’s snapped up both Grant Balfour and Rauch’s former teammate, Brian Fuentes. Earlier, the Rays signed Kyle Farnsworth, in part to replace both Balfour and Soriano.

All four signed deals that were less in total value than the Dodgers gave to Guerrier earlier this offseason. You can make the argument that all four are better pitchers, too.

No, really:

Guerrier’s the only one who hasn’t managed a FIP below 4 in either of the last two years, and he’s also got the highest tERA (which is similar to FIP, but includes weights based on batted ball types) as well. He’s next to last as far as K/BB ratio goes to Fuentes; however, Fuentes was superior in OPS allowed in 2010 (.607 to .625) and is also absolute murder on lefties, which is exactly the need I was contemplating in my post about lefty relievers.

The argument here isn’t that Guerrier is a lousy pitcher (he’s not, really) or even necessarily that the Dodgers should have signed one of these pitchers instead of Guerrier – I’ve long argued that a team with offensive problems as big as the Dodgers do probably have more important areas to spend their money than in the bullpen.

But if you have to sign a reliever, and you hand out the most years and dollars amongst a group of rough comparables, shouldn’t you be confident that you got the best of the group? And if not the “best”, at least not “possibly the worst”?

You’re going to have a hard time convincing me that Guerrier for 3/$12m is a better deal than Rauch for 1/$3.75m (with a club option!), much less better than all of these deals. It seemed obvious from the start of the offseason that relief pitching was going to be the position that was grossly overvalued this year, and it seems clear now that the Dodgers would have been far better off waiting to fill that need.

Report: Dodgers Sign Matt Guerrier to Three Year Deal

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Update: Ken Rosenthal reports that it’ll be $12m over 3 years. I assume that’s going to be backloaded as $1m, $1m, $10m, because hey – why not?

We’re hearing rumors that the Dodgers have signed former Twins reliever Matt Guerrier to a three-year contract. No word on the terms yet, but this is shocking to say the least.

MLBtraderumors had a solid accounting of him in November:

The Pros

  • Guerrier led the league in appearances in 2008-09 and pitched in 74 games this past season.
  • He induces more grounders than fly balls.
  • His slider is excellent.
  • Guerrier has a 2.7 K/BB ratio against right-handed hittters in his career. 
  • He has just a 1.5 K/BB ratio against left-handed hitters in his career, but he does induce more groundballs against them (55%).
  • As mentioned earlier, it won’t cost a pick to sign Guerrier.

The Cons

  • Defense independent pitching stats like FIP and xFIP suggest Guerrier’s 3.17 ERA would have been higher if he had been less lucky in 2010.
  • He posted 5.3 K/9 and 2.8 BB/9 last year. That’s not spectacular and both rates were better in 2009.
  • The free agent market is flush with right-handed relievers, so Guerrier won’t have much leverage.

They also predicted that he’d get a one-year deal, and that’s the problem – well, one of the problems. The issue here isn’t that Guerrier isn’t good, because he’s clearly durable and effective, and in a baseball vacuum, that’s great, and he’s a solid addition to the pen.

But nothing ever lives in a vacuum, does it? When have multiyear deals to over-30 relievers – especially one who’s good but not dominant – ever worked out? How do you think the White Sox felt about Scott Linebrink‘s deal? The Blue Jays about B.J. Ryan? I realize I’m cherry-picking a bit, but the success rate there isn’t high. This is why everyone’s been laughing at the Angels for handing out multiple years to older relievers Scott Downs and Hisanori Takahashi. That’s all before you even notice that Guerrier’s K rate has dropped from 7.0 in 2008 to 5.5 in 2009 to 5.3 in 2010 – and his fastball velocity dropped in 2010 as well. It’s not a good trend for a guy who turns 33 next year.

Secondly, why is this team spending more money on pitching when the offense looks to be in trouble? I get that the bullpen was poor last year, but it’s long been shown that spending big money in the bullpen rarely works out. There’s plenty of talent in the pen that you need to have a little faith can bounceback, and yet the offense is still without a left fielder . We don’t yet know what Guerrier will get; I joked on Twitter that Downs got $15m over 3, but since Downs is both better and lefty, Guerrier deserves something less like $3/10. Therefore, I’m predicting 3/$21m.

Then there’s the question of what this does to the bullpen. If the season were to open today, and the Dodgers were to carry 7 relievers, which they usually do, you’re looking at a bullpen of…

R Jonathan Broxton
L Hong-Chih Kuo
R Kenley Jansen
R Matt Guerrier
R Vicente Padilla
R Ronald Belisario (out of options)
R Blake Hawksworth (out of options)

That’s an intriguing group, I’ll admit. But it doesn’t include a second lefty, which seems unlikely. So is there a trade in the works? It’s obviously not going to be Kuo, Jansen, Guerrier, or Padilla. Belisario and Hawksworth are candidates because they’re out of options, but don’t have much trade value. So is this where we see Broxton moved? I’ve long said I find it unlikely that he gets moved at the absolute lowest of his value, and I would hate dumping him for nothing, but I’m fine with it in the right deal. Personally, I still don’t see it happening.

More to come…

Winter Meetings, Day 1 (Updated)

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How can you not love the Winter Meetings? It’s that special time of year where rumors fly like crazy (99% of which are proven false) and everyone in baseball gets together to wait around in lobbies for bits of news, yet still finds out about them via Twitter at the same time we do.

Anyway, rumors are half the fun of having a blog and they’re flying fast and furious about the Dodgers, so let’s do a round-up. I’ll update this as more come in today. 

Update, 2:23pm PST:

Steve Henson, buzzkill:

Source: dodgers have zero interest in prince fielder.

Have to love the winter meetings, right? Where nothing is true, unless it is, but even then it isn’t!

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Update, 2:08pm PST:

Tony Jackson with our first “HOLY CRAP!” moment:

Multiple sources told ESPNLosAngeles.com’s Tony Jackson on Monday that the Brewers are talking to the Dodgers about a deal that would send Prince Fielder from Milwaukee to Los Angeles for Loney and embattled closer Jonathan Broxton.

Yes, yes, yes, a million times yes.

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Update, 1:51pm PST:

Knight checks in again with a post full of WIN:

Heard the Dodgers are unlikely to bring back Podsesnik to play left, as they’re looking for (even modest amounts of) pop.

WHOO!

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Update, 1:32pm PST:

Molly Knight checks in with some outfield talk in a series of tweets:

Heard this: Matt Diaz is the Dodgers first choice to fill the hole in left field.

But I think everyone recognizes how thin the available talent is at LF.. Sands should get a decent look next summer.

Feeling is Diaz could get a two-year-deal while the team waits (and hopes) for prospect Jerry Sands to hit. Option B would be Austin Kearns

Glad to hear Matt Diaz is popular, though I know other teams are into him as well. Kearns, not so much.

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Update, 12:05pm PST:

Steve Henson clarifies his earlier tweet to confirm that his $95m figure does not include deferred salaries. If that’s true, then we’re looking at a $112m cap with them included, which means the Dodgers have about $5-$7m left to spend.

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Update, 11:13am PST:

Hated the Rod Barajas deal? How would you have felt about this, via Tony Jackson?

Los Angeles Dodgers came tantalizingly close to signing free-agent catcher A.J. Pierzynski to a one-year contract before the Chicago White Sox added a second year to their offer, resulting in Pierzynski accepting a two-year, $8 million deal to remain with the White Sox.

A source with knowledge of the situation, speaking on the condition of anonymity, confirmed that the Dodgers were close to a deal last week that would have paid Pierzynski in excess of $4 million to join the Dodgers as the deadline neared for offering a contract to catcher Russell Martin.

Pierzynski confirmed to ESPNChicago.com’s Bruce Levine that people had no idea how close he was to bolting the White Sox before they offered two years.

Pierzynski would have cost more than Barajas; though he had a similarly poor .300 OBP last year, his career mark is at least .324, higher than Barajas’ .284.

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Update, 10:26am PST:

Steve Henson: 

Dodgers source: loney won’t be traded because he’d be too expensive to replace on free agent market

Boooo. There’s a logjam of decentish 1B out there. Loney’s going to get at least $4m in arbitration and possibly more. That doesn’t seem to fly.

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Update, 10:21am PST:

RT @washingnats: #Dodgers want #Nats SS Ian Desmond and RHP Jordan Zimmermann for James Loney

HAHAHAHA. Um, and I want a pony.

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Original post:

Jayson Stark:

#Dodgers hope to add 2 relievers. Working on Padilla as one of 2. Other clubs wondering if they add right arms whether they’ll move Broxton

Sounds as if Matt Guerrier is another reliever on #Dodgers radar screen.

We’ve heard about Padilla before, and I’ll admit it’s an interesting possibility to have him back as a relief ace/starter insurance type. I’m just not sure I see Padilla accepting that role when he could certainly get a gig as a fulltime starter elsewhere.

Guerrier’s a useful enough arm – 70+ games four years in a row, WHIP below 1.100 in three of the last four years – but you know how I feel about spending big money on non-elite relief arms. They almost never pay off, and Guerrier’s 32 coming off a year in which he made $3.1m. He’s probably going to get something like a 3/$13m contract, and I don’t think that’s what the Dodgers should be spending their remaining money on.

As for Broxton, I’ve been over that before. I have no problem with trading him if the deal is right; I just think it’ll be hard to find that as his value is lower than ever, and you can’t just give him away.

Ken Rosenthal:

While both the Cubs and Nationals are focused on free agent Carlos Pena, Loney is available, according to major-league sources.

The Dodgers would need to find a replacement for Loney if they traded him, but that should not be a problem in a free-agent market deep in first basemen.

Interest from the Nationals in Loney makes sense — the team recently hired Bob Schaefer as a special assistant in its front office. Schaefer previously was Joe Torre’s bench coach with the Dodgers.

The Cubs and Brewers also have inquired on Loney, sources said.

Similar to Broxton, I’ve been through this one before. I’d be happy to trade Loney, I just don’t see the demand. If he’s not likely to out-produce a FA 1B you could get for 1 year (say, a Derrek Lee type), then why would the other team want to give up pieces for Loney when they could just sign that guy?

Ken Gurnick:

The Dodgers have expressed interest in Matt Diaz, the outfielder non-tendered by the Braves last week. Diaz hit .250 with seven homers and 31 RBIs in 2010, but missed two months with an infected thumb. He would give the Dodgers a right-handed hitting complement to lefty Jay Gibbons for a platoon in left field. Diaz received $2.55 million from the Braves this year. He has an .806 career OPS.

Another non-tender, pitcher Jeremy Accardo from Toronto, also has hit the Dodgers’ radar. The right-hander has battled through three seasons of injuries, but in 2007 had 30 saves for the Blue Jays.

Love the idea of adding Diaz, as I’ve mentioned a few times over the last few days.

MLBTradeRumors:

Adrian Beltre‘s agent Scott Boras is seeking five years and north of $70MM, tweets ESPN’s Buster Olney. 

And that ought to be the end of any faint-hearted hope you were getting Beltre back in blue.

Steve Henson:

Source: dodgers payroll will be $95M.

As I already mentioned, this is only possible if the Dodgers stop signing and start trading (unlikely) or if Henson is counting only the players on the roster in 2011, neglecting the $17m in deferrals still on the books.