Well, THAT Happened

midp13807130259_31.jpgSo as you’ve probably heard by now, the Fish traded Miguel Cabrera, Dontrelle Willis, and Fredi Gonzalez’ will to live to Detroit for top prospects Andrew Miller, Cameron Maybin, and four other players. I’m not here to dissect who won this deal *coughDetroitcough*, but rather because I’m kind of concerned about the implications this has for the Dodgers.

Let’s just say that Miller and Maybin are equal in trade value to Clayton Kershaw and Matt Kemp. It’s not a perfect comparision – I think the Dodgers pair is slightly more valued – but for the sake of this discussion, it’s close enough. The other four players are an MLB-ready backup catcher, and 3 minor league pitchers, who Keith Law describes as a “bullpen flamethrower”, “possible NL 5th starter”, and an “organizational arm”.

Here’s my issue with this. As detailed here, and here, on this site, amongst many other places, the Fish were asking an astronomical amount for Cabrera alone. For just him, the Marlins were rumored to be asking for “four players from a group that includes pitcher Chad Billingsley, pitching prospect Clayton Kershaw, third baseman Andy LaRoche, first baseman James Loney and outfielder Matt Kemp.”

Yet somehow, the Tigers got both Cabrera and Willis for a package that’s equal to two of the players from that group, plus four much less valuable players. Now, I heard that what the Marlins were asking for from the Dodgers was astronomical from many different sources, so I’m inclined to believe it. So why did they ask the Dodgers for seemingly more for just Cabrera than they ended up taking from Detroit for Cabrera and Willis?

This is actually something I’ve been concerned about for years: that the Dodgers’ superior farm system actually works against them in trades. Too many teams are more worried about how the trade “looks” than in the actual quality of the players they get back. That is, if they get two of the three best players from a team with a weaker farm system, those two players may only be equivalent to the 6th and 7th best Dodger prospects. So then this conversation happens:

GM: “Team X is going to give us their #2 and #3 prospects. Give us your top two if you want to beat them.”

Ned: “But that’s not equal. Our #2 and #3 are wayyyy better than those guys. That’s equal to our B+ guys.”

GM: “But it’s their 2nd and 3rd best. Why would I take your 6th and 7th best? What do you think I am, stupid?”

Ned: “Well, now that you mention it….”

*click*

And that’s how Detroit ends up with both Miggy and Dontrelle for a package far less than what we would have had to pay. And that’s why we don’t make any blockbuster deals.

- Mike Scioscia’s tragic illness msti-face.jpg

It's Crazy Rumor Round-Up Time!

Holy Christ, are there some awful rumors floating around. A LOT of them, actually, and unfortunately they all make me feel as ill as the thought of a Roseanne/Rosie O’Donnell/Barbaro threesome. And that’s not even considering any of the Alex Rodriguez rigamarole. Where to start?

First we’ve got the ongoing Miguel Cabrera rumors. Now, the Miggy talk is something we’ve already discussed on here, and basically I felt that because the cost would be so exhorbinant, we might as well just stick with Andy LaRoche, who as you may have heard is raking in winter ball. But it was interesting none the less to think of what exactly it’d take to get him. Obviously, he wouldn’t come cheap. But I didn’t think it’d take roughly the gross domestic product of Canada, which is what the Palm Beach Post has to say:

The Dodgers would have to give up four players from a group that includes pitcher Chad Billingsley, pitching prospect Clayton Kershaw, third baseman Andy La Roche, first baseman James Loney and outfielder Matt Kemp. The Dodgers probably would balk at giving both Billingsley and Kershaw in the same deal because it would hurt the organization’s pitching depth.

Four! Is the Palm Beach Post on the Marlins’ payroll? First of all, Clayton Kershaw has to be off the table in a deal for any player. By every single account, he is the best pitching prospect in the minors, and could be ready as soon as the end of next season. You do not give those guys away. But even without him, Billingsley, LaRoche, Loney, AND Kemp? I’m having a hard time even rationally discussing this due to howcramer.jpg incomprehensibly ridiculous the thought is. You can include ONE of that group, and then some second-level guys like Andre Ethier, James McDonald, etc. Guys who would be top-level talent in organizations not as deep as the Dodgers.

You know what? Let’s just move on from that. My brain can’t handle this mind-blowing stupidity.

Speaking of mind-blowing stupidity, Tim Krasovic of the San Diego Union-Tribune, come on down! You’re the next contestant on “The Price Is In No Way Going to Be Right!”

Responding to Colletti’s preference for veterans, the Padres are contemplating three-team trade scenarios that would bring them young Dodgers outfielder Matt Kemp.

Oh really? Are they? What could the Padres possibly have in mind that would convince Colletti to trade Kemp to a main rival? Jake Peavy, certainly, but I can’t see any scenario in which that happens. I know it says “three-team trade”, so some other team would be sending us the return for Kemp, but still; it’s not like we wouldn’t know where he’d be going. I can’t imagine that Colletti would willingly deal Kemp knowing that he’d just end up right down the road in San Diego, helping that horrible sand-colored team that always seems to have our number.

Moving on to our favorite FOX Sports midget, Ken Rosenthal! Ken, what wild story have you dreamed up today? Perhaps Jorge Posada to push Russell Martin to the bench? Maybe convincing Darren Dreifort to come out of retirement?

The signing of Hunter would force Pierre to left field, with Kemp and/or Ethier in right. Hunter might not be as dynamic offensively playing his home games at Dodger Stadium. But for the Dodgers, a center fielder who has averaged 30 homers and 103 RBIs the past two seasons would be a modern-day Duke Snider.

It’s almost too obvious.

The Dodgers should sign Hunter.

Ken’s FOX Sports cohort Dayn Perry completely agrees, which sort of makes me wonder if they had some office meeting to decide what sort of rumors they’d start this year.

Juan Pierre is still under contract, but he’s a massive liability for the Dodgers. He’s terrible at the plate and roundly overrated with the glove. Yes, he’s only one year into that deliriously stupid five-year, $44 million contract, but it’s time to treat him as a sunk cost. That means unloading him for whatever you can get (rosin bags, used jocks, canned wine) or relegating him to a reserve role. Playing Pierre on a daily basis will only compound such a bad decision. Throughout baseball last season, only the White Sox endured worse production from center field, so the Dodgers badly need an upgrade. That brings us to Hunter. Defensively Hunter is exceptional, and he’d also provide L.A. with some much-needed power. Hunter’s also more of a known quantity than the other premier center fielder on the market, Andruw Jones.

Well. I hate to say it, because I usually disagree with Dayn Perry on an everyday basis, but those are good points. Then again, when your point is “Juan Pierre sucks”, you don’t exactly have to work overtime to talk me into it.

As for Hunter? I’m sort of indifferent. He doesn’t really excite me. He’s good, but he’s not great. Sure, he’s a fantastic defensive CF, and he’ll get you 20-something homers a year. But he’s already 32, and the thought of giving huge money to a guy for his age 33-36 years – especially when his defense is such a big part of his game, and when the legs go the defense often does too – is a scary thought. Especially when we’ve got outfielders *coughDELWYNYOUNGcough* who can crush the ball but still aren’t getting a chance. I guess I’d say, if Pierre can be dumped, I wouldn’t be adverse to spending some money on Hunter in CF. But I’m firmly against the “Pierre in LF” idea. Just when you thought you couldn’t drop his value any lower.

Let’s wrap this up with one more batshiat-insane rumor! Show me… Mariano Rivera! Who the Yankees have apparently offered 3 years at $15 million per year, making him the highest-paid closer of all time by nearly 30%. Except, Rivera hasn’t jumped at it, for some reason. Why? Well, Ken Rosenthal thinks he has the answer:

The Yankees’ three-year, $45-million offer to free-agent closer Mariano Rivera was more than generous. Rivera’s $15 million average salary would dwarf that of the highest-paid closer, Billy Wagner, who is earning $10.75 million per season.

Rivera, who turns 38 later this month, mentioned possibly joining Joe Torre and the Dodgers to the Associated Press. The Dodgers wouldn’t pay Rivera nearly as much as the Yankees, but the idea that they wouldn’t have interest in him due to the presence of closer Takashi Saito is ridiculous.

Imagine a bullpen anchored by Jonathan Broxton, Saito and Rivera, one of the best closers in the history of the game. The Dodgers wouldn’t need to worry about their rotation as much, would they?

Fact: Mariano Rivera is the best closer of all time.

Fact: His stats show a disturbing downward trend over the last three years, and Takashi Saito was unquestionably better than Rivera in 2007.

Between 2005-07, Rivera’s ERA, WHIP, and, of course, age have all increased. Saito, on the other hand, was dominating. (Sidenote: I don’t think we give Saito enough credit for how good he was in 2007. His WHIP was an otherworldly 0.715. By comparison, the best WHIP Future Hall of Famer Mariano Rivera has ever had? 0.868).

Not that Rivera wouldn’t make a nice addition to the bullpen and all, but A. if he’s turning down $15 million/year from the Yankees, what would he want from us? and B., I would not boot Saito from his role for Rivera. I don’t care who’s the bigger name. Saito is the better pitcher right now. And I can’t see Rivera deigning to be a setup man. Especially since we already have Broxton squarely set in that role.

Well, that was fun. Now if you’ll excuse me, I’m going to go curl up in a ball in the corner for fear that any of this might actually go down.

- Mike Scioscia’s tragic illness msti-face.jpg

Fire Up That Stove!

In Will Carroll’s “Unfiltered” column today on Baseball Prospectus, he discusses the trade rumors surrounding Miguel Cabrera most likely leaving South Florida:

* Alex Rodriguez isn’t headed anywhere yet, but he can cross Miami off his list. He’s not one to give a hometown discount and Jeffrey Loria’s not raising payroll. That means that one of the team’s big two is gone and everyone’s expecting it to be Miguel Cabrera. “He’s at the end of his time at 3B,” the baseball source told me, “but he’s still good enough to play 1B. They won’t get quite as much as [Jon Daniels] did for Mark Teixeira, but they’re looking for a different payoff.” The rumored asking price is three players – one pitcher and position player that are under three years of service time and “solid ink-’em-in guys.” The other would be a “plus prospect, not the best guy on the team, but useful. The Marlins will probably look for a slugger.”

The Dodgers, of course, have been prominently mentioned in going after either Alex Rodriguez (who I’d like to reiterate, I am against not because I don’t think he’s “clutch”, but because of the insane expense and years) or Cabrera to fill both their power deficit and the Nomar-sized hole at 3B.

cabrerax.jpgAnd there’s no question Cabrera can rake. He hasn’t slugged less than .512 in any of his 4 full seasons. I mean, his average stat line is .313/.388/.542 31hr/118rbi. Plus, he’s only 24 – coincidentally, the same age as Andy LaRoche, and as much as I like him, he’s done nothing in the bigs. The issue with Cabrera, though is his weight.. the man likes to eat. A lot.

Anyway, the point of this isn’t to discuss whether Miggy’s a good player – duh – or even if the Dodgers should go after him. The BP piece made me wonder what it would take if the Dodgers did to decide to pursue him.

A. By all accounts he’s not going to be able to play 3B much longer. This would not cure our case of Garciaparritis at 3B – but he’s not going to 1B unless Loney’s part of the deal to the Marlins, and I can’t imagine any of us are in favor of that. Could always put him in the OF if one of the young guys out there are part of the return, though.

B. “Won’t get as much as Texas did for Teixeira”. Texas got a top young C/1B (Salty), a good almost-ready SS (Andrus), and some good but not A+ pitching prospects (Harrison, Feliz, Jones). Transforming that into Dodger prospects, we’d have had to give up, lets say LaRoche (obviously we don’t have a C and Martin’s not going), Hu, McDonald, Elbert, and Orenduff for Teixiera. I’m just winging that, but it seems about the same as what Atlanta gave up. Now, the scout is saying it’d take less than that to get Cabrera, which doesn’t seem awful.

C. It’ll take “three players – one pitcher and position player that are under three years of service time and “solid ink-’em-in guys.” The other would be a “plus prospect, not the best guy on the team, but useful. The Marlins will probably look for a slugger.”

One pitcher and position player under three years of time and are ready-now. Broxton and Kemp? Also, a “prospect, who’s not the best guy on the team, but useful – and a slugger.” If that’s not Delwyn Young, I don’t know who is.

Broxton, Kemp, and Young for Cabrera? That’s actually not horribly unreasonable. I don’t know that I’d actually do it, because I’m so high on Kemp and I’m not sure I want to suffer through Cabrera at 3B, but that deal would not be the end of the world.

UPDATE: Buster Olney chimes in this morning with this:

The most interesting trade parameter mentioned is what the Marlins may ask the Dodgers for, in return for All-Star third baseman Miguel Cabrera: third baseman Andy LaRoche, minor league pitcher Clay Kershaw, and an outfielder – perhaps Matt Kemp.

Jesus. Well, someone’s off base here, because there’s no way in hell you can call that “less than what Texas got for Teixeira.” I mean, why stop there? Why not throw in Russell Martin, the deed to Dodger Stadium, and the corpse of Roy Campanella?

- Mike Scioscia’s tragic illness msti-face.jpg