Category Archives: NO

In Defense of Blake DeWitt

Posted on by 14 Replies

I don’t really believe this is going to happen, but…

To create room on the roster for Furcal, an infielder will have to go.  The obvious move is to designate Nick Green for assignment, but Torre noted the club has two choices: Green, or optioning Blake DeWitt.  When asked if it would be tough to send down the club’s opening day second baseman, Torre said, “It’s always tough to be sent down,” but also said a decision has not yet been made. (via TBLA)

Again: I don’t really think they’d actually do something that stupid, so this is probably a bit premature. Still, you’d have to think the fact that Torre even acknowledged there’s a possibility it could be DeWitt got back to Blake eventually, which is exactly what he doesn’t need.

I’m not even going to bother explaining why Nick Green is useless. I’ve done so many, many times, and while I won’t pretend that nine plate appearances is a substantial sample size, it’s also not like he’s done anything to distinguish himself with the one single he’s accumulated. If this happens, the issue here wouldn’t even be “DeWitt or Green”, as they’re making it sound.

No, the issue would be “Blake DeWitt vs. overvaluing Jamey Carroll“. As you probably remember, I wasn’t a huge fan of the Carroll signing this offseason. Yet, even I’ll admit that Carroll’s been a nice surprise, playing nearly every single inning at shortstop since Furcal went down in the first place. As expected, he’s provided little range and zero power, but he’s been solid on the balls he can get to, and his .377 OBP overall is nice. Besides that, he’s really stepped it up since he took over the job, with a .396 OBP in the 25 games that Furcal has missed.

Coming from an emergency backup, Carroll’s been all you could expect, and considering what a disaster shortstop was in 2008 when Furcal was down, he’s really done nicely. I approve. Yet, let’s not confuse this with Carroll being a plus player, or someone who ought to be a starter, because he’s not. If DeWitt did go down, the team would essentially be saying that they prefer Carroll in the lineup everyday rather than DeWitt, since Carroll would presumably slide over to be the starting 2B.

DeWitt may still be waiting for his first home run, but that’s really the only blemish on his season so far. His 106 OPS+ means he’s been an above-average hitter this year, as compared to Carroll’s below-average 88 OPS+, and DeWitt has also really started to heat up. Since the calendar turned to May, he’s got a .288/.333/.492 line, with nine extra-base hits (as compared to Carroll’s three in the entire season). That’s an .825 OPS, which is fine by me.

On defense, he’s clearly been a work in progress, but he’s improving there too. Obviously, defensive stats are more prone to small sample size worries than anything else, but even all of the accepted metrics have him at near average or just slightly below it, which is also better than Carroll’s marks.

Again, I don’t think this will happen, and I’m fine with Carroll’s play thus far. But if the unthinkable occurs – if DeWitt is sent down just as he’s heating up, in order to play Carroll more and hold onto Green – it would be a massive mistake. Personally, I’m fine with just DFA’ing Green when Furcal returns, because I consider him to be of no value whatsoever, but knowing how the Dodgers roll, it’ll probably be a Haeger-esque phantom DL stint. As if anyone would really claim him on waivers, anyway.

******

In far sadder news, Jose Lima has apparently died of a heart attack today in Los Angeles. Lima was a Dodger for only one of his thirteen seasons, but that didn’t stop him from earning a place in team history. After a 13-5 2004 season which he described as “Lima Time” and had his wife become a minor internet celebrity thanks to her infamous picture while he sang the national anthem, he tossed a complete game shutout at the Cardinals in the NLDS – the first playoff game the Dodgers had won since 1988, and the only won they’d win until 2008. After his one season in LA, he had a horrible 2005 in Kansas City, a short stint with the Mets in 2006, and that was the end of his career. He played in Korea and independent ball in Canada and California trying to get back – that is, when he wasn’t popping up in bizarre Deadspin stories about his ex-wife trying to track him down.

An email from the Dodgers included the news that he’d actually been at the game on Friday night, and received a standing ovation from the crowd when introduced (the picture at right). RIP, Lima Time.

Enjoy Clayton Kershaw While You Can…

Posted on by 8 Replies

…because Joe Torre is trying to kill him. Okay, okay, we’ll get to that. First things first, Kershaw was absolutely incredible tonight against the Portland Beav- ah, I mean, San Diego Padres. Sometimes it’s easy to forget that this kid is just twenty years old, because there’s a case to be made that he is this team’s second best starting pitcher right now. The famous “public enemy #1″ curveball was in full effect, but even better, Kershaw seemed to have total control of his fastball, which touched 97. On top of that, it wasn’t just the minor leaguers and retreads the Padres threw out there tonight, because even first baseman Adrian Gonzalez – one of the better hitters in the league - looked completely lost and frustrated as Kershaw hit his spots and changed speeds.

#22 threw 6 shutout innings, allowing only 1 hit and needing just 74 pitches. James McDonald, making his major league debut in a pressure-free situation (thanks to the suddenly resurgent offense staking them to an 8-0 lead, led by homers from Manny Ramirez, Andre Ethier, and Blake DeWitt) pitched three effective innings to collect an unexpected save. The last three innings were caught by Danny Ardoin, giving Russell Martin a bit of a breather with this weekend’s huge series against Arizona looming.

Oh, right. That’s not what happened at all. Because that would have made all the sense in the world. Hey, the Dodgers won easily, and combined with Arizona’s loss it means they’re only 1.5 games out, so I don’t like to complain – I really enjoyed watching Kershaw dominate and Ethier nearly hit for the cycle. But have we not heard endless amounts of rhetoric this year about preserving Kershaw’s arm? Look, if it’s a big game at the end of the year or the playoffs and he still seems strong, I don’t mind taking a little bit of a risk with pushing him, but let’s make the bullets count, shall we? When you’re up 8-0 after 6 innings against the hopeless Padres, this is when you pat the kid on the back and say “great job”. This is not the time to keep him going – especially when you’ve acknowledged the game is in hand by replacing Manny and Casey Blake with Jason Repko and Chin-Lung Hu, and especially with expanded rosters meaning you’ve got more pitchers than you know what to do with. Instead, Torre puts Kershaw (and Martin) back out there for the 7th inning. Kershaw then gives up two hits, though allows only one run to score. Still, one run through seven innings is outstanding. With Kershaw up third in the bottom of the 7th, it’s the perfect opportunity to get Mark Sweeney or Delwyn Young or even Andruw Jones a token pinch-hitting appearance before turning the last two innings over to one of the non-essentials in your pen, like Jason Johnson, or Eric Stults, or especially McDonald.

Except in the bottom of the 7th, Blake DeWitt walked, followed by Angel Berroa popping out to first. And Clayton Kershaw… strode to the plate to hit for himself. Sure enough, he came out for the 8th inning, where he proceeded to walk the first two men that he faced and was finally pulled. Whether that’s a sign of fatigue or not is irrelevant; the fact is that Torre should have pulled him when the game was in hand – preferably after the 6th inning. Not letting him pitch the 7th, and especially not letting him pitch the 8th when he’d given up a run in the top of the 7th and had to hit for himself in the bottom of the 7th.

Also, and I don’t know why this even surprises me anymore… but Russell Martin caught all nine innings. Again. The day after pulling up running into third base grabbing his lower back. And people wonder why he’s not performing up to par.

Let’s not let this overwhelm the more important story, which is that Kershaw was excellent, the offense was deadly, and most of all, that the Dodgers are just 1.5 games back of Arizona. I just worry about what’s going to happen at the end of the season (and hopefully in October) when this team really needs guys like Kershaw and Martin, and we look back and think about 8-0 games with expanded rosters against lousy opponents where we still had them out there competing.

* I had vaguely heard Peter Gammons mention this on the Sunday night telecast in Arizona the other night, but I could never find it in print. Until now. Ladies and gentleman, a new contender for The Dumbest Thing I’ve Ever Heard, and a hat tip to MLBtraderumors for finding it:

Russell Martin may have slid backward, and had his attention to the defensive preparation called into question, but he remains a tremendous talent who wants to play every day, and his workload may have impacted his attention to game preparation. There has been some talk that the Dodgers may go after a Varitek or a pitcher-oriented catcher, which would free Martin from behind the plate and take his athleticism to third base, where the coaches feel he could also be an All-Star, a move Torre, Todd Zeile and Craig Biggio all made successfully.

Let’s put this out here plain and clear: Jason Varitek is cooked. Toast. Done. Finished. I don’t know how else to say it. He’s going to be 37 next April, and his age-36 year has hardly been something to write home about (completely ludicrous All-Star selection aside) with a line of .226/.316/.375, for an OPS+ of 79. Let me put it this way: His VORP of 2.0 ranks him 36th among all MLB catchers, and to put that in perspective for you, even I’ve never heard of two of the guys right ahead of him (Ryan Hanigan, CIN & Stephen Holm, SF). Do we really expect him to get better at his age? Not only that, the Red Sox have almost nothing at the position behind him, so if they’re still willing to let him go, that says a lot. NO, no, no.

Martin, on the other hand, is the 5th highest catcher in MLB in terms of VORP. Now, I don’t disagree that he’s taken a step backwards this season. It’s hard enough to quantify defensive stats in the first place, and doubly tough for catchers, so this one’s going to have to go under the category of “because I’ve watched enough Dodger games this year to know, damn it”. He hasn’t been the same behind the plate – though he’s hardly become a liability. He’s also not having as good of a year at the plate as last season. While his BA and OBP are nearly identical, his SLG and power numbers have taken a pretty big step back. All of this leads me to four pretty obvious thoughts:

1) He’s not been as good this year because he’s been overworked. We’ve been over this point ad nauseum around here lately, so I won’t go through it again. Basically, he can still be a good catcher. He just needs to have his workload decreased a little so that he can get the rest he obviously needs.

2) He’s not nearly as valuable as a third baseman. An enormous part of Martin’s value is the simple fact that he’s got a useful bat coming from a position where it’s incredibly difficult to find one. His bat simply does not play as well at third base as it does at catcher. So instead of having the 5th-best catcher in baseball, we’d have what, a middle of the pack offensive third baseman? You can’t use VORP to compare the two since that’s position-specific, so let’s use Marginal Lineup Value, which is not position-based and, as defined by Baseball Prospectus, is “an estimate of the additional number of runs a given player will contribute to a lineup that otherwise consists of average offensive performers.” Martin’s .079 is 7th among catchers with at least 200 at-bats, but is only 15th among similar third baseman. How’s that an upgrade?

3) It makes the Casey Blake deal even worse. Not that he would have been ready to jump to the bigs in 2009 anyway, but one of the only saving graces about the terrible Casey Blake deal is that it might have been okay to lose Carlos Santana since we were already going to have Martin at the position for years to come. All of a sudden the great depth you have at a thin position is down to… Lucas May, who’s hitting .230 with a .294 OBP in AA Jacksonville. Now what was once a strong position is totally barren, which leads us to the next point…

4) Who are you going to replace him with at catcher in 2009? The free-agent catching prospects are a barren wasteland of the elderly and infirm, registered members of the International Fraternity of Backup Catchers, and journeymen Quad-A types who never panned out. Seriously, who are we looking at here? 37-year-old Ivan Rodriguez, currently dying a slow death in the Bronx? Jason LaRue? Old friend Paul LoDuca?

No, friends, no. Martin is not without his flaws. But moving him to third base weakens the team greatly at two positions. So let’s just hope that this is nothing but the rantings of a reporter who so dearly misses Manny-time.

- Mike Scioscia’s tragic illness msti-face.jpg

No.

Posted on by 20 Replies

I wasn’t really planning about writing about Matt Kemp twice in a row, but that was before (via mlbtraderumors.com) this article from FanGraph‘s Dave Cameron popped up, asking: Is Matt Kemp Overrated? I like FanGraphs quite a bit, and they usually do some very interesting work over there, but I’ve got to question some of his reasoning on this one.

With the trade deadline just a few weeks away and the C.C. Sabathia and Rich Hardenmoves thrusting the spotlight back on the veterans-for-young-players deals, one name comes up time and time again in regards to the Los Angeles Dodgers – Matt Kemp. Loved by some and loathed by others, the divide between those two camps on Kemp’s value is astronomical. So, which polarizing position is closer to the truth? Is Kemp an all-star slugger in the making, or is he simply a guy who coasts by on natural ability and will never live up to his potential?

Is he really “loathed” by people? I’m not even questioning Cameron yet, I just hadn’t heard that re: Kemp. I’ve heard the complaints about his occasional mental mistakes, and the rumors of his poor clubhouse demeanor (although I’ve always felt that was A) overblown by the media and B) perhaps not even true at all), but “loathed”. I think there’s people who loathe Juan Pierre, fair or not. Lots of people definitely loathe Andruw Jones right now. I never really thought of Kemp as being in those categories. Either way, Kemp has yet to play a MLB season in which he even gets into 100 games (this year will be the first), so it’s pretty early in his career to be making sweeping generalizations.

Most Dodger fans online are firmly in the first camp. Despite not being given regular playing time and having to force his way into the line-up, Kemp hit .342/.373/.521 as a 22-year-old last year, cementing his status as one of the Dodgers best hitters in the ‘07 campaign.

I’d say it’s safe to say that here at MSTI, we’re in that first camp. You may also remember that not only was that 2007 line impressive, I wrote an entire post on it in fact being historically good for a player of his age. The takehome point on the original Baseball Prospectus article that I referenced there was that just ten right-handed hitters since World War II have hit .320 or better in a season in which they were 22 or younger, and besides for Kemp that list included “four Hall of Famers, three guys who probably would get voted into the Hall of Fame if they retired today, and a guy (Miguel Cabrera) who’s absolutely on a Hall of Fame trajectory.” Kemp’s batting average was actually second highest on that list behind only Alex Rodriguez, so yes: we back Matt Kemp around here.

However, that .894 OPS was built on a house of cards – a remarkable .417 batting average on balls in play that was in no way repeatable. Even though BABIP for hitters is indeed influenced by skill, and they do have control over whether their balls in play become hits or not, there are still upper and lower bounds on what is actually skill and what is noise. Even the very best BABIP-skill guys post numbers in the .350 to .360 range over significant samples, so it was pretty obvious that Kemp wasn’t going to be able to sustain that performance.

Indeed, his BABIP has fallen to a still-high .380, and thanks to a simultaneous increase in strikeouts, his overall performance has taken a pretty big step back.

I have to admit that I was unaware that his BABIP was so extremely high last year. But then again, I’ve never really bought into the idea of BABIP as much as some other sabermetric sources have. As Cameron himself says, it’s not all luck – it’s “indeed influenced by skill”. Even in this current season in which Kemp has admittedly not been as good as last year, he’s still got a very high BABIP. The fact seems to be that when he hits the ball, he hits it hard and gets on base, to a degree that is higher than average. What happens when he gets his bat on the ball isn’t the problem. If there is a problem, it’s this: 

In fact, Kemp’s contact rate has become a real problem, as he’s now posting a 30.4% K%. Among hitters who have a K% of 30% or higher, he’s the only one who doesn’t walk at least 10% of the time and he has the lowest Isolated Slugging Percentage of the group as well, coming in at .149.

Cameron is completely right, here. Kemp’s on pace to strike out 178 times this year, and unless you’re Ryan Howard, that’s totally unacceptable.

Striking out a lot is okay if you also draw a bunch of walks and hit for power, but Kemp isn’t off-setting the swings and misses with enough positives, and as such, he’s a below average major league hitter right now.

Like I just said, I agree that Kemp is striking out entirely too much, but calling him a below average major league hitter? Really? He’s got a 100 OPS+, which by definition makes him exactly an average hitter. And you’ve got to read into it more than that. He’s only 23 years old and focused more on basketball than baseball until he was drafted, so you’ve got to figure that there’s still plenty of room to improve, right? The list of Hall of Famers (not that I’m predicting this for him by any means) who either weren’t even in the bigs or struggled mightily at 23 is a long one, I’m sure.

Considering he turns 24 in a few months and doesn’t offer much in the way of defensive value, that’s something of a problem.

Wait, are we saying now that he’s… too old to improve? Another way of saying “turns 24 in a few months” (just a week before the end of the season, actually) is “he’s 23 right now”. That still counts as young. For all the hype over Matt LaPorta last week, he’s only a few months younger than Kemp (9/84 for Kemp, 1/85 for LaPorta), and he’s spending his age-23 season in AA ball, having yet to taste the majors. Granted, he spent time in college that Kemp did not, but the fact that somehow turning 24 is the end of the road for a player’s development is an enormous mistake here. If he was turning 28 in a few months and had made no improvements, then maybe we have something to discuss.

And, “doesn’t offer much in the way of defensive value” is a ridiculous statement. I won’t argue that Kemp’s had his adventures in the outfield. But I would put forth that anyone who’s watched more than a few LA games over the last few years would unequivocally state that Kemp has improved immeasurably this year in the field, which points directly back to what I just said – youth and inexperience. He probably won’t ever win a Gold Glove, but you cannot tell me that a guy who’s made one error while being tied for the MLB lead in assists offers no defensive value. You just can’t.

Despite his physique, Kemp’s power remains more of the doubles variety, and his aggressive approach at the plate only works if he makes up for all the bad swings with long drives that fly over the wall. The “he’s young” thing only works for so long, and Kemp is rapidly getting to the point where he needs to produce at the plate, because when he’s a below average hitter, he’s not helping anyone win baseball games.

Again with the age thing. You’re right, “the he’s young thing” only works for so long. But do you know when it does still work? When he’s still young! Like I just said above, he’s 23 years old. And again, he’s not a below average hitter. As for not helping anyone win baseball games, well, he’s 4th on the Dodgers in VORP (and the highest-ranking outfielder), so there’s that. 

As for saying he has doubles power, I think that’s a little unfair. Kemp had only two full minor league seasons, and put up homer tallies of 18 and 27. It’s a well-known fact that power is often the last skill to come for a young player at the big league level, and Kemp is already averaging 17 homers per 162 games. That might not be Matt Holliday power, but then again, where was Matt Holliday when he was 23? That’s right, down in the AA Texas League hitting only 12 homers. I guess the power was never going to come for him, either?

This isn’t to say the Dodgers should dump him the first chance they get, but if LA does trade Kemp in the next few weeks, beware the narrative that they’re giving up a young star. They’re giving up a guy with potential, but the jury is definitely still out on whether he’s going to fulfill it or not.

Here’s the problem. Cameron says that Kemp has potential, which he may or may not fulfill. That much seems obvious. But half the article was about how Kemp can no longer use youth as a crutch. So which is it going to be – that he’s still got time to fulfill that potential, or that he’s already too old to improve? Look, I don’t disagree that Kemp hasn’t been as impressive as he was last year, and the strikeout rate is clearly becoming worrisome. However, when I see a guy who’s accomplished as much as he has in the majors at such a young age, I have a hard time believing that he won’t improve as he gains some much-needed experience. And hey, maybe I’m wrong. But I know I’d really like for him to still be in Dodger blue over the next few years as he figures it out.

- Mike Scioscia’s tragic illness msti-face.jpg

If the Dodgers Trade Matt Kemp for Jack Wilson…

Posted on by 10 Replies

…well, you won’t even get an analysis here. You’ll just get the .gif of the head-exploding guy from Scanners posted here about 40 times, and then no more MSTI posts ever since I’ll have broken my laptop by bashing my face into it. Be happy I just presented you with the still, because the motion one is way more gross, and that’s what you’re going to get if this deal goes down. Anyway, this story’s popped up everywhere, but I can’t help but comment on this one section of it. Let’s go with 6-4-2 for the link, originally from Ken Rosenthal:

To get Wilson, the Dodgers would need to trade the Pirates some of the same players that the Indians want for Sabathia, leaving Los Angeles with a choice of one deal or the other.

Please tell me that I didn’t just read that the asking price for a mediocre – at best – shortstop is going to have anything in common with the asking price for the reigning AL Cy Young Award winner. Jack Wilson is 30 and has a career OPS+ of 79. C.C. Sabathia is 27 and has never once in his career (and for all the hype over Clayton Kershaw, don’t forget that when C.C. was age 20, he was going 17-5 in 33 starts) had an ERA+ of below 100. So please, tell me, on what planet are we trading the same guys for these two players?

If we needed a pitcher – which we don’t – then yes, by all means, Sabathia is worth some top-shelf talent. Jack Wilson should be a player the Pirates are dying to give away. He’s not all that good, and he’s still got some sizable cash left on his deal ($7.25 million next year, plus a $0.6 million buyout of an $8.4 million team option for 2010). The Pirates should be begging the Dodgers to take him off their hands, no?

- Mike Scioscia’s tragic illness msti-face.jpg