Category Archives: PLAYOFFS

What Does it Mean to “Make The Playoffs”?

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I think most of us would agree that after losing two of three in a disappointing weekend series in San Francisco to fall five games out with 21 to play, any hopes the Dodgers might still have of taking the NL West are on life support. That’s not to say “dead”, of course, because it’s not totally ridiculous to say that all they need to do is pick up one game in each of the next two weeks to put themselves into position to enter that last three-game set with their destiny in their own hands, but considering how each side has been playing lately along with the ongoing health concerns of Clayton Kershaw & Matt Kemp, it doesn’t seem particularly likely.

If it seems like it’d take a miracle to catch the Giants right now, then it’d take a miracle and then some to overtake Atlanta for the wild card, given that the Braves are 6.5 ahead of the Dodgers and don’t even offer the benefit of head-to-head play. Short of Atlanta somehow repeating last year’s collapse and the Dodgers being able to take advantage of it, that’s not a scenario which seems in any way possible.

For most of the last two decades, that’d be the end of it. The Dodgers would try (and probably fail) to catch the Giants, the Braves would run away with the wild card, and we’d console ourselves with the knowledge that playoffs or not, the first six months for this organization post-McCourt got off to a great start.

But that’s not the case this year, thanks to the latest brainchild of Bud Selig, a man who continually insists that the public does not want more instant replay in spite of overwhelming evidence to the contrary: the second wild card, and it’s there where the Dodgers have a real chance. They sit just one game behind St. Louis, and not only do they welcome the Cardinals for four games later this week, the defending champs are losing players just as quickly as the Dodgers are – in the last ten days alone, they’ve had to contend with additional injuries to Jake Westbrook, Lance Berkman, & Rafael Furcal.

So if you can’t see the Dodgers making up five on the Giants or 6.5 on the Braves, surely you could see them overtaking a one-game deficit on the wounded-but-still-dangerous Cardinals to take that second wild card spot. Yet if they do, then the question becomes: does it really matter?

I mean, I know it matters, because being in the playoffs is better than not being in the playoffs, but we’ve never seen an October like the one we’re about to. Your only prize for taking that second wild card is one game at the home of the first wild card, to be played on Friday, October 5. (The final regular season game is set for Wednesday, October 3. I’m assuming for the moment that there’s no tie for the second wild card, which would necessitate a tiebreaker on Thursday, October 4, and would just complicate things further.)

As things stand, that would send the Dodgers to Atlanta for that one game winner-takes-all showdown, much like the game between the bottom two teams that kicks off March Madness, and that’s sort of a dummy prize. If you lose that game – which, considering you most likely had to claw up until the last day to get it, probably comes without Kershaw on the mound – you don’t even get the benefit of a single home playoff game. You lose, and you go home. You win, and you move on to Washington or Cincinnati.

From baseball’s point of view, this makes a lot of sense, because there had been complaints in recent years that winning the division didn’t carry enough of a prize. Now, the wild card teams are penalized the way they should be, and if a team is going to make a run to the title as a wild card, they’re really going to have to earn it. (To this day, the Marlins still have two more World Series titles than they do division titles, which seems wrong.) For all the concerns about whether adding another playoff team even made sense, this was the one part of it I always agreed with.

From the point of view of the team, however, does it mean anything? Will you hang a banner saying “2012 NL Wild Card”, especially if you didn’t even get a home game? Should you be proud of being the fifth-best team in the league, which is what the second wild card is? Again, if you get in, win the game, and make some noise, no one’s going to care that you were the second wild card. If you get in and your stay in the playoffs lasts for three hours 3,000 miles from home, I’m not sure anyone’s going to remember that, either.

None of this affects how you approach the rest of the season, of course. You play the games on your schedule, try to win as many as you can, and see where the chips fall as far as playoff positioning. You don’t target the division or the first wild card or the second wild card; you just win. And, it should go without saying, none of this is relevant if the Dodgers can’t get their offensive act together. Yet with the Pirates sinking like a stone, the Dodgers are the only team within five games of St. Louis for that last wild card spot. We’ll know a lot more at the end of the weekend, but for the moment it looks like Selig’s shiny new toy is the only path for the Dodgers into the playoffs. What exactly that means, in this new era of baseball inclusiveness, remains to be seen.

You Make the Playoffs! And You Make the Playoffs!

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Since we’ve been hearing about this for months, it’s not much of a surprise, but today we’re starting to hear that the proposal from Major League Baseball about adding another wild card for each league starting this season is about to become a reality.

Ken Rosenthal:

Baseball’s playoffs will expand from eight to 10 teams, starting this season, according to major-league sources.

The sport’s new collective-bargaining agreement stipulated that additional wild cards would be added in each league no later than 2013. But commissioner Bud Selig wanted the expansion to occur immediately, and management worked with the players’ union to ensure the switch to a 10-team format this season.

The agreement on the additional wild cards is not yet final, and one source said there are “still a few loose ends” to resolve. But an announcement could occur as soon as Thursday, sources said.

2012 is somewhat of a transitional year because they’re making this change now, but not moving the Houston Astros to the American League until 2013. So for one year, we’ll have 16 NL teams fighting for what will now be 5 playoff spots, and then next year you’ll have an even 15 teams in each league. That’ll require interleague play every day, which I really don’t like.

I’m somewhat torn on the idea of adding another wild card team. The old-timer in me says that I’m not thrilled with the idea of watering down the playoffs even further, since now 30% of baseball is going to be able to claim they’re a playoff team. You can see how meaningless the regular seasons are in hockey and basketball, and I don’t want that to happen to baseball; the idea of a sport that is built over the long haul like baseball is having a team go home because of a one-game playoff each year (in the wild card round) seems kind of against the spirit of the game. Besides, you could argue, look how amazingly incredible the end of the 2011 season was. With another playoff team in each league, there’s no Red Sox collapse. There’s no Braves collapse. Each of those teams would have made the playoffs under this new system. (Though I do find the idea of a team raising a pennant celebrating how they made it as a wild card then immediately got bounced in the first game immensely entertaining.)

I’m also kind of worried about what might happen to my favorite time of the year, the July trading deadline. If there’s only 4 or 5 teams who are completely out of it by that point, then there’s a lot fewer trade options available. That could potentially either reduce the amount of trades or lessen the star power of he moves we do see. It also doesn’t help that the new CBA has largely done away with compensation picks for veteran free agents; the combination of both could really depress the market, and I would hate to see the traditional July feeding fury become a snooze.

But there are positives, too. I’m sure we all hated the idea of the wild card when it first came up back in the 90s, yet it’s hard to argue that it hasn’t led to additional interest now that an entire division isn’t screwed if one great team pulls away from the start. If 2011 might not have played out exactly as it had, there’s still the added potential for multiple teams taking that second wild card down to the final day, since it’s probably going to end up in the mess of 86-90 win teams we see each year. The final details aren’t yet out, but one item that I really do like is that i really will give a bit more of a boost to a division winner, because the two wild cards are likely to play each other in a one-game playoff and that allows the champ to rest & reset their starting rotation against an opponent that has had to claw just to get there. For those who argue that a second wild card isn’t ideal, having both wild cards be at such a disadvantage really does help soften that concern a bit.

As for how this affects the Dodgers this year… well, I’m not sure it really does that much. You could say that a team such as this – one that’s probably built for 83-86 wins, give or take – could see this as an added opportunity to get into the playoffs. Of course, every team in the league that isn’t the Mets, Astros, Pirates, or Cubs (probably) is able to say the same. You still have to be a better club than the Giants, Rockies, Braves, Nationals, Marlins, Brewers, etc, and one additional wild card isn’t going to change that. It may make things more interesting, and it may make us think they still have a chance for a few additional weeks, but when it comes down to it, either the team is good enough, or they aren’t.

******

Elsewhere…

- Eric Stephen asked Don Mattingly if he had thought about hitting A.J. Ellis second in the lineup. “Not really,” replied the skipper. That’s not really in any way a surprise, I suppose.

- Steve Dilbeck voices what I’m sure many have been thinking: though it’s wonderful to have baseball back, six weeks of spring training for a team that already has 95% of its roster set is somewhat hard to get excited for.

- With the announcement that Facebook is opening up Timeline pages to brands and giving them a month to switch over, I thought I’d take the plunge and convert the MSTI page immediately. Take a look.

- And on a “site news” note, we’re approximately one month away from the launch of the new MSTI. (Yes, I’m putting this out there publicly in part to motivate myself to finish before the season.) I’ve been working on this for a while and I’m really excited by how it is turning out. Perhaps, if you’re lucky, we’ll have a sneak peek in a week or two.

A Dodger Fan Guide to Rooting in the Playoffs

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It is now… *checks watch*… 186 days until Opening Day 2012. And while we might all be anxious to see what the Dodger lineup will look like when the team takes the field in early April, there’s still a whole lot of baseball to be played in 2011. But in the seven hours or so before C.J. Wilson throws the first pitch of the playoffs against Tampa Bay (starting Matt Moore, a decision that – right or wrong – I just can’t get over because of the sheer bravado involved), Dodger fans have a decision to make: who are we pulling for to win the title this year?

First, the good news: it can’t be the Giants again. As someone (and I forget who, so sorry) noted on Twitter during Wednesday night’s wildness, “we don’t have to deal with Brian Wilson this October, so that means we’re all winners.” Truer words were never spoken. Even if they weren’t spoken, but rather Tweeted, and then paraphrased by me.

At ESPN, Jim Caple attempts to measure a team’s “Rootability Index” through a complex series of criteria, but sometimes it’s more fun to be subjective. Let’s look at the competitors through Dodger-tinged glasses, from most offensive to least.

Absolutely No Way In Hell Division

Philadelphia Phillies

Like I even need to explain why, right? The Phillies not only have a recent championship and two recent NL pennants, they crushed the Dodger postseason dreams in both ’08 and ’09 in the most brutal ways possible. That alone disqualifies them from consideration. Plus who among us doesn’t find Shane Victorino to be insufferable? Besides, it’s not that I haven’t enjoyed the collection of rotation aces they’ve put together from a fan point of view, but I do like the idea that simply having a roster like that doesn’t automatically equal victory.

Oh, and everyone from Philadelphia is a horrible, soulless subhuman. So there’s that.

Chances of Me Rooting For Them Are Roughly Equal to Eugenio Velez Getting a Hit Division

New York Yankees

Unlike most of you, I’m guessing, I don’t despise the Yankees. Yes, they have the most money, and they can be obnoxious at times, but they’re run by smart people and I don’t see the point in rooting against them just for the sake of it. On the other hand, I have absolutely no idea how you can claim to be an impartial fan and actually root for the Yankees. It’s not like they need more people on the bandwagon or are desperately in need of a recent championship, though considering their rotation is C.C. Sabathia and not a whole lot else, it’d be interesting to see them pull it off. Still, a whole lot of things would have to go terribly wrong for me to start pulling for the Yankees in the playoffs.

If you’re not a Yankee fan and you’re rooting for them this October, you’re dead inside.

Arizona Diamondbacks

To be honest, I don’t hate the Diamondbacks either – most of them. Their worst-to-first run this year has been a great story for the game, and I’m glad to see Kirk Gibson & Kevin Towers having success as manager and GM, two guys I’ve always admired. Even their roster is mostly inoffensive, and toiling away in the desert means that megastar Justin Upton is woefully underappreciated on a national scale. If they win the NL pennant, it wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world (unless you’re a television executive, which, who cares.)

Yet there are a few problems with rooting for the Snakes from a Dodger fan point of view. First of all, they are a division rival, so that’s hard to cheer for, and they already have a World Series championship despite being in just their 14th season. They’re also the team that collected Willie Bloomquist, Geoff Blum, and Sean Burroughs at various points this year, leading to untold levels of “grit” and “scrap” like the world has never seen before. That’s not a notion of victory that I want to reinforce.

But most of all? Gerardo Parra. Screw Gerardo Parra.

St. Louis Cardinals

Tony LaRussa manages the Cardinals. Ryan Theriot plays for the Cardinals. With apologies to Rafael Furcal, absolutely not.

Good Teams From Places I’m Glad I Don’t Live Division

Texas Rangers

Rooting for Texas holds some appeal, if only because they were in financial straits nearly as dire as the Dodgers and have been one of the best teams in baseball despite it. Jon Daniels is the kind of GM I wish the Dodgers had, and he’s one of the few who can say that he snookered Toronto GM Alex Anthopoulos by stealing Mike Napoli for Frank Francisco on the back-end of the Vernon Wells trade last winter.

That said, they were in the World Series just a year ago, and I like variety. Besides, if Michael Young is hilariously already receiving MVP support for what was a good-but-not-great season, just imagine what it’ll be like if he’s flashing a ring.

Detroit Tigers

Other than the teams who are facing the Tigers, if you’re rooting against Detroit, you hate America, freedom, and puppies. How could you not want to give some amount of joy to that barren region? Yes, the Tigers were in the World Series just five years ago, but they haven’t actually won one since Gibson and Jack Morris were rolling over the Burger King Padres nearly 30 years ago, and Justin Verlander is an absolute joy to watch.

On the other hand, Brad Penny would get a ring too. I’m not sure I can abide by that.

Jumping on the Bandwagon Division

Tampa Bay Rays

The funny thing about the Rays is, they’ve already been one of the best stories in baseball for years. Coming from the depths of the “Devil Rays” era, they’ve already been to a World Series (2008) and won a division title (2010) – hell, they’ve already had a book written about them. They could have done just about nothing else and still had their recent clubs be memorable, but no, they had to top that this season by ditching Carl Crawford, Carlos Pena, and their entire bullpen, falling nine games out of the Wild Card in early September, fighting back to tie on the last day before being down 7-0 in the 8th inning against the Yankees… only to tie the game on a homer by Dan Johnson and his .108 average and win it on an Evan Longoria walkoff, his second of the game, almost simultaneously to the Orioles coming back to topple the mighty Red Sox.

You’re going to root against that team? Really? Hey, their fans may not support them, so you might as well, though slight demerits for the team that turned fringe players (Danys Baez & Lance Carter) into a few years of just-above-replacement performance from Edwin Jackson (2.2 rWAR with Tampa) into Matthew Joyce (matching 132 OPS+ scores the last two years) at the expense of the Dodgers.

But while I’d be quite happy seeing them come out of the AL, I can’t quite root for them to take the whole thing just yet, because there’s still the…

“One Brat to Unite Them All” Division

Milwaukee Brewers

I am trying, and failing, to think of a single reason to root against Milwaukee this postseason. Despite being in a small market, they have outstanding fans who consistently support the team. They have arguably the best owner in baseball, one who is willing to reinvest in the club, and one who I’ve already hoped would come rescue the Dodgers. They might have a small window, because of their very risky (and very entertaining) strategy to go “all-in” this year on the Zack Greinke & Shaun Marcum trades, in addition to Prince Fielder‘s impending free agency. (To clarify, because I’ve seen this before, that doesn’t mean they’re losing 98 games in 2012, just that there’s little left coming from the farm and Prince is likely to be elsewhere.) Their closer, John Axford, has a wicked mustache and comes out to obscure Swedish hardcore, rather than the generic butt-rock so many closers use today, and one of his set-up men is our old favorite Takashi Saito. They have Nyjer Morgan, who – while loved and hated by many – has created a gentlemanly Twitter alter-ego, Tony Plush, which is so ridiculous that it’s amazing.

Like Arizona, they’re led by a former Dodger, Ron Roenicke, and none of the three-headed ace crew of Greinke / Marcum / Yovani Gallardo threw more innings than old friend Randy Wolf. Hell, they also have Matt Kemp‘s main competition for the MVP in Ryan Braun, and it’s hard to even root against him because Braun has had such an absolutely MVP-quality season himself.

So… I guess I’m rooting for the 30th largest market (i.e., the smallest) to face the 26th largest market in the World Series. Oh, television people are going to love me.

Hot Off the Presses, Here’s Your Playoff Roster

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Before we get to the pitching staffs, the NLDS roster has just been announced moments ago (it’s all over, but I saw it on Tony Jackson’s blog first, and I’ve edited it for formatting):

PITCHERS
Beimel, Billingsley, Broxton, Kershaw, Kuroda, Park, Lowe, Saito, Troncoso, Maddux, Wade

CATCHERS
Ardoin, Martin

INFIELDERS
Berroa, Blake, DeWitt, Furcal, Garciaparra, Kent, Loney, Ozuna

OUTFIELDERS
Ethier, Kemp, Pierre, Ramirez

Only one big surprise for me, and that’s Ramon Troncoso making it over Scott Proctor, because in 8 games since his return he’s allowed only a .250 OBP and a 2.57 ERA. But according to Jackson, Proctor’s still not healthy enough to warm up more than once in a game, and Torre wanted someone who can do that.

Not a big surprise to see Pablo Ozuna make it, because as I said the other day…

You know, I was all ready to go into an epic rant about how bad Ozuna is and how much I’d rather see Young on the roster… but I just can’t. Contrary to what I had thought, Ozuna’s not just an infielder who’d made an emergency appearance in the outfield – he’s made 63 career appearances out there. And while I do think Ozuna is a big zero at the plate (career OPS+ of 76, and only 66 for LA), Young hasn’t been much better this year, with only a 71 OPS+. Now don’t get me wrong, because we’re still huge fans of Young’s around here (check out his crazy minor league stats in a post we made on him in June) and I think a huge reason for his lack of productivity is his sporadic at best playing time. But the playoffs are no time to work out the hitting kinks, and clearly he’s not a plus with the glove.

On to the pitching staffs for the NLDS, but before I break down Cubs vs. Dodgers specifically, I have to point this out. You know how they say “good pitching beats good hitting?” Well, I don’t know who the hell they are, but they couldn’t be more right.

NL ERA ranks, 2008
1) Dodgers 3.68
2) Brewers 3.85
3) Cubs 3.87
4) Phillies 3.88

So… you’re saying that if you want to make the playoffs, you have to have solid pitching? A novel idea, sir!

Starters
Derek Lowe (14-11, 3.24 ERA, 1.13 WHIP)
Chad Billingsley (16-10, 3.14 ERA, 1.34 WHIP)
Hiroki Kuroda (9-10, 3.73 ERA, 1.22 WHIP)
Greg Maddux (8-13, 4.22 ERA, 1.21 WHIP)

Ryan Dempster (17-6, 2.96 ERA, 1.21 WHIP)
Carlos Zambrano (14-6, 3.91 ERA, 1.29 WHIP)
Rich Harden (10-2, 2.07 ERA, 1.06 WHIP)
Ted Lilly (17-9, 4.09 ERA, 1.23 WHIP)

Even Ken Rosenthal recognizes the dominance of the Dodgers starting staff, saying that he can almost see the following happening:

Game 1: The hottest pitcher in the baseball — Dodgers righty Derek Lowe — silences the howling masses at Wrigley.

Game 2: Cubs ace Carlos Zambrano freaks out.

Game 3: Dodgers righty Hiroki Kuroda continues his late-season surge and season-long excellence at Dodger Stadium.

Of course, Rosenthal later backs down and predicts Cubs in 5, but he’s not entirely wrong. Lowe has been out of his mind good lately (more on this in tomorrow’s Game 1 preview), Kuroda and Billingsley have both been excellent over the last month or so, and Zambrano has been awful since his no-hitter on September 14th, giving up 13 earned runs in just 6.1 innings over two starts. So often it’s not about who has the better rotation, but who has the hotter rotation. That said, Rich Harden has been utterly dominant since his arrival in Chicago from Oakland, and if each team decides to use a 4th starter in Game 4 rather than bringing back the Game 1 starter, Ted Lilly is a big advantage over Greg Maddux.

So what you have here is two excellent rotations, each rightfully considered a strength of their team. The Cubs probably have more talent, but the Dodgers might have momentum. Really, I think both sides are going to get good work from these groups, so the edge really depends on Carlos Zambrano. If he’s as good as he’s been for the last several years, that’s a huge boost to Chicago – but if he can’t turn it around from how bad he’s been lately, that pushes the meter towards Los Angeles.

Advantage: Cubs – but only if Zambrano’s healthy and effective

Relievers
R Takashi Saito (4-4, 2.49 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 18/22 saves)
R Jonathan Broxton (3-5, 3.13 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 14/22 saves)
L Joe Beimel (5-1, 2.02 ERA, 1.45 WHIP)
R Chan Ho Park (4-4, 3.40 ERA, 1.40 WHIP)
R Cory Wade (2-1, 2.27 ERA, 0.93 WHIP)
R Ramon Troncoso (1-1, 4.26 ERA, 1.28 WHIP)
L Clayton Kershaw (5-5, 4.26 ERA, 1.50 WHIP)

R Kerry Wood (5-4, 3.26 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 34/40 saves)
R Carlos Marmol (2-4, 2.68 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, 7/9 saves)
R Bobby Howry (7-5, 5.35 ERA, 1.46 WHIP)
L Neal Cotts (0-2, 4.29 ERA, 1.43 WHIP)
L Sean Marshall (3-5, 3.86 ERA, 1.27 WHIP)
R Michael Wuertz (1-1, 3.53 ERA, 1.43 WHIP)
R Jeff Samardzija (1-0, 2.28 ERA, 1.41 WHIP)

While the Cubs relievers finished a mediocre 8th in the NL with a 4.10 ERA, the Dodgers managed to place second with a 3.33 mark. Worse, the Cubs’ pen has struggled mightly in September – check Kerry Wood’s 6.75 ERA and Neal Cotts’ 8.10. Even Samardzija was lousy with a 5.40 ERA. In fact, the only Cub reliever to show any effectiveness in the last month is Carlos Marmol, who struck out more than a man per inning with a 2.84 ERA in September.

The Dodgers pen has been excellent all year long, but they’re not without their own question marks. The loss of Hong-Chih Kuo (who had been a revelation with 96 K in 80 IP and a 2.14 ERA) is really going to hurt, and the reliability of Takashi Saito is still uncertain after his return from an elbow injury. That said, this is a good, solid group. Cory Wade and Joe Beimel have been solid all year, and Kershaw should add some juice in the middle innings if needed.

Advantage: Dodgers

- Mike Scioscia’s tragic illness msti-face.jpg

1,012 – 1,012

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Yesterday I pointed out that the Dodgers and Cubs have been around (in various incarnations) since the 19th century, yet had never once played each other in the playoffs. I thought for sure that this was going to be the most interesting stat about the upcoming playoff series… and leave it to the Chicago Tribune to completely blow me out of the water:

The Cubs and Dodgers have played each other 2,024 times since their first game in Brooklyn in 1890, splitting the all-time series 1,012-1,012.

Are you kidding me? How is that remotely possible? An exact .500 split over 118 years? Someone call NASA, because I need to know the odds on this one. How about a bajillionty to one?

Anyway, we’ve got two off days left before the first Dodgers playoff matchup in the short history of this blog. You really think we’re not going to milk it for all it’s worth? Break it down. Today we’ll look at the offenses, tomorrow the pitching staffs. Trust me, Dodger fans, tomorrow will be more fun.

Catcher
Russell Martin (.280/.395/.396 13hr 69rbi)
Geovany Soto (.285/.364/.504 23hr 86rbi)

Fantastic. There’s about 27 major league teams that couldn’t come close to competing with the Dodgers in terms of catching quality, and we’re playing one of the very few that not only can, but might have a claim on being superior. Great start! To put Soto’s .504 SLG into perspective, Cult Hero Andre Ethier’s is .510. On the plus side, Martin is coming in hot (1.011 OPS over the last two weeks) while Soto has hit just .227 over the same span – and Soto’s only gotten into two games since September 20th due to a sore left hand, neither of which he was able to make it all nine innings in. In reserve, both teams have entrants in the International Fraternity of Backup Catchers (Danny Ardoin and Henry Blanco) who each hope get exactly zero at-bats.
Advantage: Cubs, if Soto’s healthy

First Base
James Loney (.289/.338/.434 13hr 90rbi)
Derrek Lee (.291/.361/.461 20hr 90rbi)

Chalk up another one for the Cubbies. Loney somehow ended up as the Dodgers’ leading RBI man despite an eternally unexciting season, but Lee’s been one of the best first basemen in baseball for quite a while now, and Loney hasn’t quite passed him just yet. That said, expect Nomar Garciparra to get the start against lefty Ted Lilly. Nomar’s pasted lefties with a 1.067 OPS so far, and nailed homers in each of his last two starts against southpaws.
Advantage: Cubs

Second Base
Blake DeWitt (.264/.344/.383 9hr 52rbi)
Mark DeRosa (.285/.376/.481 21hr 87rbi)

We’re going with DeWitt here because while Jeff Kent is almost certainly going to be on the playoff roster, it’s doubtful he’s going to be healthy enough to man second base for nine innings. I am, however, calling BS on that stat line for DeWitt, because it includes his death spiral of June and July before getting sent down. Since his return on August 28th, he’s been much better with a 284/.402/.443 line – very comparable to DeRosa’s. The Cubbies second sacker – a stalwart of my fantasy team due to his pop and multi-positional eligibility – missed the last four games with an injured left calf, but according to the Chicago Sun-Times, it sounds like he’ll be ready to go on Wednesday.
Advantage: Cubs, if DeRosa’s healthy

Shortstop
Rafael Furcal (.357/.439/.573 5hr 16rbi)
Ryan Theriot (.307/.387/.359 1hr 38rbi)

I am very very tenuously predicting that Furcal’s going to get the start in Game 1. He’s looked okay since returning from back surgery, even though it was only three starts, and collected two hits in his last game. If he’s not, then the Dodgers will be forced to turn to Angel Berroa, who - for all the talk of his “resurgence” – is still only hitting .240/.329/.360 over the last month. By which I mean, “eeeccch.” As for Theriot, I have to admit I was surprised when I looked up his stats. Does this team have anyone who can’t hit? I’m tempted to give the Cubs the advantage here anyway just because of the uncertainty over Furcal, but what the hell:
Advantage: Dodgers, if Furcal’s healthy

Third Base
Casey Blake (.274/.345/.463 20hr 81rbi)
Aramis Ramirez (.289/.380/.518 27hr 111rbi)

Hey, remember that time I hated the Casey Blake deal? Well, it’s not getting better. Blake’s OPS+ has dropped from 116 in Cleveland before the deal to 97 in Los Angeles, and he’s put up a dreadful .220/.297/.415 over the last month. Hey, that was definitely worth giving up minor league MVP Carlos Santana for! Ramirez, meanwhile, ended up with the 4th highest VORP of all MLB 3B, behind only Chipper Jones, David Wright, and Alex Rodriguez. Hmm, I wonder how this one’s going to go.
Advantage: Holy Cow! Cubs win!

Left Field
Manny Ramirez (.332/.430/.601 37hr 121rbi)
Alfonso Soriano (.280/.344/.532 29hr 75rbi)

How good has Manny been since coming west? Well, let’s see. Soriano is an excellent hitter, who finished 11th in VORP among MLB left fielders, and that’s even with missing some time due to injury. Manny finished 3rd in that category – but I’m just talking about Dodger Manny. Manny’s NL season started August 1st, and he was still the 3rd best outfielder over the course of a full season. Boston Manny was 8th, by the way. Look, you don’t need me to tell you how good Manny is. Just get a seat out on Waveland Avenue when he’s up and enjoy the show.
Advantage: Manny being Manny!

Center Field
Matt Kemp (.290/.340/.459 18hr 76rbi)
Jim Edmonds (.256/.369/.568 19hr 49rbi)

The Corpse of Jim Edmonds made a pretty admirable comeback after being all but dumped by San Diego earlier in the season, and I hate to say it but… I might have to call it for the Cubs, as unbelievable as that would have sounded a few months ago. I mean, the numbers don’t lie – Kemp’s OPS over the last month is .750, while Edmonds’ is .929. Crap. That’s not even close, although Kemp’s 35 stolen bases do help him out.
Advantage. Cubs. I guess.

Right Field
Andre Ethier (.305/.375/.510 20hr 77rbi)
Kosuke Fukudome (.257/.359/.379 10hr 58rbi)

I’m putting Fukudome here because he has the most starts in RF over the season, but it sure sounds like he’s not actually going to be the man out there. Now that I look at the lineups, it seems that lately DeRosa has been their RF while Mike Fontenot holds down second base. This doesn’t really change the rankings any, since I’d still give second to the Cubs no matter which of DeRosa/Fontenot plays and since no Cubs RF is going to take down Andre Ethier. Look, you think Manny has been hot? Do not underestimate a man who over the last month has a line of .462/.557/.629 for an otherworldly 1.249, which is actually better than Manny’s over the same time period.
Advantage: Dodgers

Bench
Neither team has announced their playoff rosters yet, so I’m kind of guessing on these here, especially the Cubs. In fact, I’m just going to take the top five prospective bench guys for each team.

C Danny Ardoin (.235/.278/.314 1hr 4rbi)
1B/SS/3B Nomar Garciaparra (.264/.326/.466 8hr 28rbi)
2B/1B Jeff Kent (.280/.327/.418 12hr 59rbi)
LF/CF Juan Pierre (.238/.327/.328 1hr 28rbi 40sb)
SS/2B Angel Berroa (.230/.304/.310 1hr 16rbi)

C Henry Blanco (.222/.325/.392 3hr 12rbi)
2B Mike Fontenot (.305/.395/.514 9hr 40rbi)
SS/2B Ronny Cedeno (.269/.328/.352 2hr 28rbi)
LF/CF/RF Reed Johnson (.303/.358/.420 6hr 50rbi)
1B/LF/RF Daryle Ward (.216/.319/.402 4hr 17rbi)

As I said before, it’s likely that Fontenot ends up in the starting lineup with DeRosa either in right or injured, but all that does is further weaken a bench that can’t compete with the group the Dodgers have. Kent and Nomar have been your standard declining injury-prone veterans for more than a little while now, but as weapons off the bench they can be more than effective, and Nomar’s positional flexibility could prove extremely useful. Plus, there’s Juan Pierre, and you know how much I despise him as an everyday outfielder, but off the bench in a pinch-running role he’s a valuable weapon to have – think Dave Roberts in 2004 for Boston. The Cubs have old friends Blanco and Ward, neither of whom have done much this year, and if – as seems likely – Fontenot isn’t here, then that means either Johnson or Fukudome (if he makes the roster) is their man bat off the bench, and that just can’t compare to what the Dodgers can bring.
Advantage: Dodgers, notwithstanding the fact that this bench makes about $25 million more than the Cubs reserves do.

Final tally
Cubs 5 (C, 1B, 2B, 3B, CF)
Dodgers 4 (SS, LF, RF, bench)

- Mike Scioscia’s tragic illness msti-face.jpg