Orioles 7, Dodgers 5: That’s Five Losses In a Row

belisario_baltimore_2013-04-20I’d love to tell you that I know what’s wrong with Ronald Belisario these days, but I can’t. With one out and a man on second in a tied game in the eighth inning, he entered and promptly allowed the game to get blown open on a walk, a passed ball (much more on Ramon Hernandez, of course), and then, after an intentional walk, gave up a double to Nolan Reimold, scoring two. Only five of his 16 pitches were strikes, and he’s now allowed every inherited runner to score this year. He’s almost the new Mike MacDougal, except that his pitches still have so much movement on them that I can’t imagine how anyone actually hits him.

Belisario’s failure ended an up-and-down affair that began with the Dodgers blowing a 4-0 lead that got started on Andre Ethier‘s three-run blast in the first. If you’re just going by the box score, it’s probably going to look like Hyun-jin Ryu tossed out a stinker, allowing eight hits and five earned runs — along with homers from both J.J. Hardy & Reimold – in six innings, but it never really felt that way. Ryu struck out six, and the runs all being earned is somewhat of a result of charitable hometown scoring, since Ethier clearly booted a catchable sinking liner in the sixth.

As for the rest of the offense, Matt Kemp had something of a breakout with three hits and his first stolen base — though the last two were both infield hits that may have traveled a combined 50 feet — while the 6-9 of Hernandez, Skip Schumaker, Luis Cruz, & Justin Sellers had one hit and two walks in 16 plate appearances. Hanley Ramirez can’t come back soon enough, and I’m no longer sure that Sellers is the one leaving rather than Cruz.

As you might expect, a loss like this lands a lot of blame on the manager, and in my opinion Don Mattingly‘s performance was mixed. I actually quite liked his decision to bring Kenley Jansen into a tied game in the seventh against the top of the Baltimore lineup, and also to bring Jansen back for a second frame. After all, one of the few ways we’ve been able to rationalize Brandon League being the closer is that it frees Jansen up for more important work, so credit there.

I didn’t so much mind removing Jansen for Paco Rodriguez with Chris Davis coming up — I know many disagree with me — yet I did find his inaction in the eighth inning troublesome. In a tie game, Skip Schumaker (who can’t hit lefties) was allowed to ground out against Brian Matusz (who is death on lefties) rather than call on Jerry Hairston. After Cruz was, mercifully, hit by a pitch, switch-hitter Nick Punto sat on the bench while Justin Sellers popped out weakly against righty sidearmer Darren O’Day.

Game two starts in about three hours at 4pm PT, with Josh Beckett on the hill. I cannot express enough how badly the Dodgers need to come away with a split today; they’ve won just once since Zack Greinke was injured.

A.J. Ellis & Ronald Belisario Avoid Arbitration

It should probably say a lot about how badly we want news right now that this is a tweet we’ve actually been waiting for:

Ellis made slightly more than the $1.7m Matt Swartz of MLBTR had projected for him, and though that’s still far less than he’d get as a true free agent, $2m is still a pretty big raise from the $490k he got last year. Honestly, I wouldn’t have minded seeing him get a two year deal, but this is fine. Belisario wasn’t included in the projections and should probably just be happy he’s getting paid in American money and not in cigarettes or whatever passes for currency at the county prison.

With the salaries set, we can turn Ellis & Belisario from blue to green on the payroll sheet. By my count, I have them at $229.79m in 2013 contracts; including all outlays — dead money, minimum salaries, posting fee, etc — that’s $271.49m. It’s a fun time.

2012 Dodgers in Review #50: RP Ronald Belisario

2.54 ERA 3.09 FIP 71.0 IP 8.75 K/9 3.68 BB/9 0.9 fWAR A-

2012 in brief: After missing all of 2011 and the first month of 2012, actually managed to stay on the roster all year without getting in to further trouble. Oh, and he was a pretty effective reliever while doing it, too.

2013 status: Eligible for arbitration for the first time as a “Super Two” and should be mainstay of bullpen if he can manage to stay out of trouble again.

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I’m really not sure if it can be overstated how little we expected from Ronald Belisario after a bizarre 2011 in which he missed the entire season. But Belisario sorted out his issues and actually made it to Arizona weeks ahead of camp — frankly, I’m not sure why he ever leaves at this point — and when it came out that he’d be suspended for the first 25 games of the season, I actually thought it was a good thing, since it’d give the Dodgers time to sort out a crowded bullpen and see what Belisario could offer.

When he returned in early May, we weren’t sure what he would be, but we knew he’d at least not be Mike MacDougal:

I have no idea what kind of Ronald Belisario we’re going to see now that he’s been reinstated from the suspended list. The out-of-nowhere 2009 sensation? The 2010 disappointment who wasn’t great but wasn’t really as bad as people remember? The total flakewad who missed 2011 entirely? But I do know this: simply because he’s here and he exists, we no longer have to suffer the wrath of Mike MacDougal, DFA’d by the Dodgers today to make room.

Belisario made his debut in Chicago on May 5 and picked up right where he left off, not allowing a run in any of his first nine outings. In June, he pitched 12 innings and allowed just four hits and a single run,  and though the 1.53 ERA he took into the All-Star break was fantastic, it wasn’t entirely without some concern:

Ronald Belisario (A+)

I mean, A for still being in the country. A for not being in prison. A for still being alive, probably. A for not being injured. A-plus for not only being on the team, but for being an invaluable member of the bullpen. I’m both terrified by his .176 BABIP and fascinated that his bowling ball heater results in such poor contact that it’s the third lowest figure in baseball. Good to have you back, you big weirdo.

That fall back to earth came quickly, because July was nothing short of a disaster for Belisario; of the 20 earned runs he allowed all season, 11 came in July alone — despite it being the month with the fewest games. (Oddly, his 4.25 K/BB in July was the best mark of his entire season.) In a stretch of 11 innings between July 8-31, he allowed 17 baserunners and saw his ERA rocket from 0.95 to 3.20, poor enough that when Randy Choate was added, I was openly floating the idea of a DL stint for Belisario just to give him a breather.

That didn’t happen, of course, and Belisario rebounded nicely down the stretch, putting up a 36/13 K/BB in 31.2 innings after August 1. On the whole, Belisario’s 2012 was the best of his three major league seasons, and while he can still never be counted on — especially after reportedly getting kicked off his winter league team — if he’s available, he’s a cheap and effective setup man who provides real value.

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Next up! Get out your bunting shoes, it’s Don Mattingly!

Just In Case You Needed A Reminder Not To Believe Everything You Read This Time of Year

Jon Heyman, CBS Sports:

Nick Swisher may be dreamin’ of L.A. but it’s not happening.

Swisher might have to readjust his sights and think about Cleveland. The Dodgers aren’t trading Andre Ethier to make room for him.

Danny Knobler, also of CBS Sports:

But sources familiar with the discussions say the Dodgers have at least talked about the idea of trading Andre Ethier and signing Bourn to replace him. Bourn would play center field, with Matt Kemp moving to right field.

So there’s that. Two national writers from the same outlet, one saying that there’s almost no chance that an Ethier trade could happen, the other saying that it’s being discussed. Who’s right? Who’s wrong? The answer, as always: 99% of what you read this time of year in the media is untrue is one way or another.

Like I said the other day, I think an Ethier trade is unlikely, but it’s far from non-zero, and there’s a compelling argument to be made to deal him for upgrades elsewhere — no, you’re not getting a star or stud prospect for him with that contract, but even a slick-fielding shortstop that could doubly improve the defense by moving Hanley Ramirez back to third, even if it hurts the offense, could be a start — and then move to sign Bourn or Swisher or trade for Mike Morse. I’m not saying I would do it, because the free agents would sign a pick and because I think Ethier just needs to be used more effectively, but there’s a case to be made.

Either way, we haven’t heard the last of this, and we won’t until all of the other outfielders are spoken for — no matter what the national writers say.

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Oh, and then there’s this, presented without comment…

I… ah… wow.

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and this:

Reliever Ronald Belisario, on his best behavior with the Dodgers last season, has not fared as well back home in Venezuela this off-season.

His Winter League team in Margarita said Belisario would not play for the rest of the season because of disciplinary reasons.

Please, Ronald not this again. At the very least, not something that would further motivate Ned Colletti to overpay for Chris Perez or Joel Hanrahan or Bobby Parnell.

I Don’t Know What Ronald Belisario Is, But He’s Not Mike MacDougal

I have no idea what kind of Ronald Belisario we’re going to see now that he’s been reinstated from the suspended list. The out-of-nowhere 2009 sensation? The 2010 disappointment who wasn’t great but wasn’t really as bad as people remember? The total flakewad who missed 2011 entirely? But I do know this: simply because he’s here and he exists, we no longer have to suffer the wrath of Mike MacDougal, DFA’d by the Dodgers today to make room.

I have to admit, even though this was clearly the right move – you just can’t send down Josh Lindblom after how good he’s been this year, and MacDougal has shown no ability to get anyone out – I’m still pretty surprised that this actually happened. MacDougal was signed to a guaranteed deal over the winter, and in a bullpen with one NRI (Jamey Wright) and a few guys with options remaining, the fact that the Dodgers chose to eat MacDougal’s deal rather than ship off Lindblom or gin up a phantom DL stint is encouraging. Hey, maybe Stan Kasten’s new fan email box is paying off already!

MacDougal, of course, probably was never worth that guaranteed deal in the first place, since his 2.05 ERA last year was one of the more misleading stat lines I can remember in some time. But hey, maybe some team desperate for bullpen help will actually take on his deal or give up some Low-A space filler for him. And if not, I’m sure he’ll be quite comfortable in Albuquerque. Either way, kudos to Ned Colletti (or whomever may have made this call) for doing the right thing.

As for Belisario, well, I’m very interested to see what he is. There’s a non-zero chance that he could potentially be a useful piece of the puzzle if he can find himself again, and the reports on his stuff have been encouraging. That said, the rehab results weren’t great (1 K, 2 BB, 8 hits allowed in 4.2 innings) and with Matt Guerrier on the mend, Blake Hawksworth looming after that, and intriguing minor league types like Shawn Tolleson, Scott Rice, and Josh Wall out there as well, Belisario is probably going to need to show his worth quickly. But hey, it’s win/win, because even if he’s terrible and gets cut, all it cost you was the services of Mike MacDougal. So there’s no downside here.

By the way, still no official word on Bobby Abreu, and now that Belisario has taken MacDougal’s 40-man spot, there remains one open spot for the veteran outfielder.