24 Hours Left For the Dodger 25-Man Roster

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Is Alex Castellanos about to trade in his Dodger blue for Isotope red?

By 3pm ET / 12pm PT on Sunday, the Dodgers will need to finalize their 25-man Opening Day Roster. That means in the next 24 hours, more than a few questions are going to need to be answered.

Here’s what we know right now with one calendar day and a single spring game left between now and decision time.

Active Roster Locks (20):

C — A.J. Ellis, Tim Federowicz
IF — Adrian Gonzalez, Mark Ellis, Luis Cruz, Jerry Hairston, Nick Punto, Juan Uribe
OF — Carl Crawford, Andre Ethier, Matt Kemp, Skip Schumaker

SP — Clayton Kershaw, Josh Beckett, Hyun-Jin Ryu
RP — Brandon League, Kenley Jansen, J.P. Howell, Ronald Belisario, Matt Guerrier

Disabled List (3):

Chad Billingsley, Scott Elbert, Hanley Ramirez

Still in camp (13):

C — Matt Wallach
IF – Alfredo Amezaga, Elian Herrera
OF — Alex Castellanos

SP — Zack Greinke, Ted Lilly, Chris Capuano, Aaron Harang, Stephen Fife
RP — Josh Wall, Kevin Gregg, Paco Rodriguez, Peter Moylan

Not technically in camp, but somehow still in the mix (1):

Justin Sellers

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As you can see, there’s still a ton of uncertainty there, with 37 names in line for 25 spots. From the list of guys still competing for a spot, we can safely cross off Wallach, Amezega, Fife, Moylan, Rodriguez, and Wall. Remove those six, plus the three headed for the disabled list, and what you’re left with is eight players battling for five spots — Greinke, Capuano, Harang, Lilly, Gregg, Castellanos, Herrera, and Sellers.

The first spot seems very likely to go to Greinke, though I’ll hold off on calling him a “lock” until we see how he comes out of his start in Anaheim tonight, considering how much time he’s missed. It’s still possible that he begins the year on the disabled list in order to give him more time to build up arm strength, as well as to give Ned Colletti more time to work out his starting situation. However, unless tonight’s a disaster I consider that unlikely.

I’m guessing that it’s the opposite for Lilly, because he’s been both limited and ineffective this spring. It sounds as though the Dodgers are already trying to get him to agree to a disabled list stint, and it’s difficult to argue there’s a role for him right now otherwise. If he truly wants to stay with the Dodgers, as he says he does, it might be in his best interest to wait until trades are made and he’s actually ready.

Assuming that Greinke stays and Lilly doesn’t, you have six players — Capuano, Harang, Gregg, Castellanos, Herrera, and Sellers — looking at four spots, three to pitchers and one to a hitter. There’s two big questions that will go into those decisions:

1) Who gets that final bench spot?

It’s difficult if not impossible to see the Dodgers going with fewer than 12 pitchers, so that leaves only one bench spot remaining, short of an improbable trade or shocking Uribe DFA. Most of us are ready to see Castellanos get his shot on a team that badly needs a righty corner outfield option with some power, but Sellers seems to have become a viable option in recent days.

92topps_aaronharang2) Three pitchers — Capuano, Gregg, & Harang — for two spots. Who misses out?

Two of those pitchers were effective starters in the bigs last season. One was so awful that he was cut by the Orioles and needed our help to understand why he didn’t get a big league contract this winter. So in theory this should be simple, but Gregg seems to be the annual spring training NRI mirage — “hey, 0.87 ERA in 10.1 innings! No, don’t mind the four strikeouts!” — and Harang doesn’t seem to be a fit at all in the bullpen.

Jon Weisman surfaced at Dodger Thoughts to make the argument that neither starter should be sold at a deep discount just to make room for a guy like Gregg, and I agree with that wholeheartedly. Since we’ve shockingly gone through the entire spring without seeing a starting pitcher traded, and since Gregg does not have an out clause before the season, I’m beginning to believe that he’ll be sent to Albuquerque and both Capuano & Harang will start in the bullpen. Neither will likely be thrilled about that, but the alternatives are limited.

Of course, these are all only very temporary solutions; Billingsley reportedly looked great in a minor league outing yesterday, and could return as soon as April 7. No matter who the Dodgers break camp with tomorrow afternoon, it’s almost certainly not going to be the same group we see 10 days from now.

The Dodger Offseason Isn’t Close To Being Over

It’s been a slow week or so for the Dodgers and most every other team in baseball because of the holiday break, since so many executives are out of the office and off with their families. That’s going to change after the new year, perhaps significantly. Even though from all the noise it seems like the Dodgers may have completely remade their roster, all they’ve actually done is re-sign Brandon League and import Zack Greinke, Hyun-jin Ryu, & Skip Schumaker.

Those four moves probably represent the bulk of the offseason spending in dollar figures, but there’s enough left to do that the winter is arguably less than half over when it comes to transactions. It’s easy to see five or six more moves coming in the next few weeks. Let’s go down the list:

1) and 2). Trade two starting pitchers, likely Chris Capuano & Aaron Harang.

We’ve been talking about this for so long that it’s barely even worth going back over again at this point. There’s a 100% chance that at least one is moved, and probably a 90% chance that both go. I’m sure the Dodgers would be happy to be rid of Ted Lilly too, but his age, contract, & injury history probably make him untradeable. With reasonable contracts and decent 2012s in their pockets, both Capuano & Harang have some amount of value, and one or the other is included in just about every Andre Ethier trade rumor I hear, both publicly and privately. No, I don’t know where they’ll end up. But it’ll be somewhere that’s not Los Angeles, clearly.

3) Add a veteran reliever.

This is another thing we’ve been hearing about for a while, and I know it’s unpopular with many because the Dodgers do have a good core of young arms and already spent big on League. Still, it’s clear that the team has interest in upgrading and so no one should be surprised when they make at least one more move here.

That might be a lefty reliever, which I’m fine with even though Scott Elbert & Paco Rodriguez have their share of fans. That said, between the two of them they have fewer than 100 career innings, and Elbert is coming off elbow surgery. It’s hardly the worst thing in the world to build up some depth there, and I have no problem with the incredibly raw Rodriguez starting his year in the minors. Earlier in the winter we heard about Matt Thornton as being a possibility; now I’m starting to hear a bit more from multiple places about potential Dodger interest in free agent lefty J.P. Howell, a California native who is married to a USC grad and who has been with Tampa since 2006.

It could be a righty too, since we know the Dodgers were in on Joel Hanrahan before he was traded to Boston. One other name on the Dodger radar to either be excited for or terrified about, depending on your outlook: Rafael Soriano, who has been a very effective reliever for a long time, but who won’t come cheaply and who would require the loss of a first round pick.

92topps_nickpunto4) Reduce the glut of redundant bench players.

Jerry Hairston & Schumaker are obviously going to be on the roster, and between them they can cover every non-catcher position except for first base. I suppose I’m stretching a bit to say that Hairston can really play shortstop, but with Luis Cruz & Dee Gordon both options if anything happens to Hanley Ramirez, it doesn’t really matter.

That makes both Nick Punto & Juan Uribe somewhat obsolete, because neither brings skills that aren’t already covered on the roster. (Other than diving head-first, but I’m guessing Schumaker would probably do in a pinch.) We heard a few weeks ago that the team was attempting to trade both, and I believe that’s still the case — one or both should be gone in the near future. Punto will probably manage to bring back at least a little something; Uribe’s probably just going to have to be jettisoned.

5) Add a backup first baseman and 6) a righty outfielder.

These could easily be the same player, but then again, perhaps not. Right now the roster doesn’t have a single player who can cover first base, and while Adrian Gonzalez is durable and plays every day, you can’t assume that he’s never going to get banged up or ever get ejected. While we’d all like to see Mike Morse come in to be a righty power option who can play LF / RF / 1B, that’s not going to happen unless Adam LaRoche returns to Washington first. Otherwise, this is going to have to be filled via trade, because the only righty free agents remaining who can play first base are Carlos Lee, who won’t come to Los Angeles, and Juan Rivera, who won’t be invited back.

The options there are just beyond sparse, and they’re tough to look at; one under-the-radar name I’ll throw out — completely my own speculation — is soon-to-be 30-year-old righty Steve Pearce, who bounced from Minnesota to the Yankees to the Orioles to the Astros back to the Yankees and then back again to the Orioles all in 2012 alone. To say that he’s dispensable is an understatement, but in parts of six big-league seasons he does have a pretty sizable platoon split, and he can play a little bit of outfield too.

In the outfield, well, frankly, I’m just terrified Ned Colletti is going to find a way to talk himself into Delmon Young.

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That’s potentially six moves right there — more if both Punto & Uribe go, and if Colletti does bring in a veteran catcher to battle Tim Federowicz in camp —  and that doesn’t even address the Ethier rumors that just won’t go away. I’ll say this: they’re real, and while I think it’s more likely than not that Ethier remains with the Dodgers, we can’t be sure until Michael Bourn lands somewhere else.

Stay tuned. January should be fun.

The 40-Man Roster Is About To Get Overcrowded

Very quietly – so quietly that only pal Chris Jackson of the Albuquerque Examiner was sharp enough to notice it at first – the Dodgers outrighted Triple-A outfielder Matt Angle off the 40-man roster this week. The news went by with such little attention, I’m guessing, because most fans probably have never even heard the name. After being claimed from Baltimore last winter on waivers, Angle did little to distinguish himself in Albuquerque this year, being the only member of the 40-man roster (aside from Chris Withrow, who was often injured) to stay with the organization for the entire season without getting called up. If we noted Angle at all this year, it was only to continually call him out as the next head to roll when a new acquisition needed a spot. Largely due to the never-ending stream of players pushed to the 60-day disabled list, he managed to survive. Until now.

The Dodgers currently have, as you can see on the depth chart page here, 37 players on the 40-man roster. That’s comprised of the 35 guys who finished the season on the active roster or on the 15-day disabled list plus minor leaguers Scott Van Slyke & Yasiel Puig. Counting the whopping nine players on the 60-day disabled list (a number which was ten before Blake Hawksworth was outrighted yesterday as well) the Dodgers technically have 46 players on their 40-man roster. They would have until November 20 to get down under the limit and reset their 40-man roster. Angle &  Hawksworth, apparently, are just the first steps.

The most immediate way to lose players is to have their contracts expire or otherwise disappear, and there’s ten players who fall under that category. (I’m assuming here that the declining of three team options will all happen.) This group includes Bobby Abreu, Joe Blanton, Randy Choate, Todd CoffeyAdam Kennedy, Brandon League, Juan Rivera, Matt Treanor, Shane Victorino, & Jamey Wright. The seven free agents will officially be off the roster the day after the World Series ends; the three with team options (Coffey, Rivera, & Treanor), assuming they are all declined, will have that paperwork completed within the next few days after that.

So taking that 46 and eliminating 10 would get them back down to 36, and we can stop acting as though players on the 60-day disabled list are separate because the disabled list disappears five days after the end of the World Series, not to return until camps open.

36 doesn’t seem like a lot, but we’re not quite done yet. That November 20 date is also when they’ll have to add any eligible players to the 40-man to protect them from the Rule 5 draft, like Stephen Fife was last year. We’ll get into who exactly falls under this category much more closely as the deadline draws near, because the eligibility here is always a little squishy. For now, they alleviated this worry somewhat by trading Ethan Martin & Allen Webster, but expect Matt Magill at the very least to be added, and guys like Gorman Erickson, Rafael Ynoa, Aaron Miller, & Blake Smith could be part of the conversation. (No, not Zach Lee; he doesn’t need to be protected yet.)

Let’s say they add three names. So without adding a single new free agent to help in left field or the rotation or the bullpen, or retaining any of the other guys they may want to keep, like League, the Dodgers will already be at 39 players. That gives you just one spot to play with going into an offseason where you can conservatively expect that at least three to five players will be added to the team, whether they be newcomers or returnees.

So what can they do? The obvious answer is, “something we don’t expect.” They’ll make a trade we never saw coming, because that’s what always happens. But with that in mind, five possibilities to open up spots as needed…

1) Whack Justin Sellers. This one seems pretty obvious to me. The Dodgers have about 84 infielders under contract, and Sellers has not only proven little in the bigs, he’s coming off a year nearly entirely lost to a back injury. He won’t get claimed, and if he does, it’s not a loss.

2) Whack or trade John Ely. I like Ely and so do you, but when you’ve fallen behind Fife on the depth chart, it’s not a great thing. Considering that they already have six veteran starters under contract plus Fife plus whomever they inevitably add, it’s not a great place for Ely to get an opportunity. Ely was already removed from the 40-man once last winter and went unclaimed, so perhaps that could happen again and he’d remain with Albuquerque. However, given his PCL Pitcher of the Year award, there might be some extremely limited trade interest.

3) Give Juan Uribe a viking funeral. No, that’s not a euphemism for releasing him. I’m legitimately suggesting that we float him into the ocean on a burning pile of wood. (And yes, I have made that joke before.) I know that it almost seems like a fantasy that we could finally be rid of Uribe after he somehow managed to last through the entire season, but who among us really thinks there’s still value to be had here? He was useless from day one, and with the infield stuffed with Puntos, Ramirezes, & Cruzes, there’s no way to justify him hanging onto a roster spot. Swallow your pride, Ned.

4) Whack Elian Herrera. Herrera, as you’ll see when we get to his review, was an incredibly welcome surprise at a dark time in the season. He’s also going to be 28 in May and was awful once his initial hot streak wore off, and hardly has a stellar minor league record. Endless thanks for what he brought, but he’s not likely to make the Opening Day roster and what he brings is easily replaceable.

5) Whack or trade Josh Wall. Those first four were relatively easy, but now I’m struggling a bit. DFA Nick Punto? I’d love to, but Ned Colletti would never do it. DFA Scott Van Slyke? Maybe, because I don’t think all that much of him, but you still have to fill out a Triple-A roster and his righty power could be useful depth for Crawford & Ethier if needed, in addition to being an option at first base. DFA Silverio if his injuries from last year’s car accident are too much to overcome? Only if it’s dire, since his 2011 was very good. Find a way to ship out Lilly or Aaron Harang or Chris Capuano? It’s unlikely that all three start next year in the rotation unless Billingsley is cooked, yet it’s hard to see those moves happening right now.

So all I can see is dropping Wall. It’s not even that I really want to be rid of Wall, who converted from a lousy starter to a decent reliever in 2011, it’s just that the his ceiling is pretty low and the Dodgers already have seven relievers under control for 2013 – Kenley Jansen, Ronald Belisario, Javy Guerra, Paco Rodriguez, Scott Elbert, Matt Guerrier, & Shawn Tolleson, each of whom have a good claim on a spot for Opening Day. That’s without bringing back any of League / Choate / Wright or adding anyone new. Wall’s good depth to have around, but is hardly irreplaceable.

How much of this will happen? I have to think Sellers & Ely are as good as gone, at least when it comes to the 40-man. Let’s see how the Dodgers surprise us for the other necessary moves.

40-Man Roster Questions Looming for Dodgers

As we head get into August and the roster expansion of September 1 gets closer by the day, a fun annual game becomes “can [insert mediocre player here] hang on to his job long enough to make it to September, by which time roster limits aren’t an issue and it doesn’t make sense to DFA him?” Last year, we saw Dioner Navarro get the axe barely more than a week before the deadline; this year, that can be referred to as “the Juan Uribe & Adam Kennedy deathwatch.”

Yet while everyone thinks about that in terms of the 25-man active roster, this year’s constant stream of moves has made the 40-man roster all the more crowded, and that’s where players Uribe & Kennedy could find issues. Even with space-fillers like Ramon Troncoso, Michael Antonini, & Trent Oeltjen already having been dropped from the roster, the 40-man is tight, so tight that Chris Withrow is the only member of the roster with meaningful playing time this year who doesn’t already have major league experience. (Yasiel Puig is of course just getting going in Arizona, and Alfredo Silverio is out for the year due to injury.)

That’s what happens when injuries force unexpected moves to add reinforcements to the roster, like Luis Cruz & Elian Herrera, and when late-July trades add four 40-man players (Hanley Ramirez, Shane Victorino, Randy Choate, & Brandon League) while only removing two in Nathan Eovaldi & Josh Lindblom. As things stand, the Dodgers have one open spot on the 40-man roster, but potentially four recovering players on the 60-day DL who could be back before the end of the season – Rubby De La Rosa, Matt Guerrier, Ted Lilly, & Justin Sellers. (Todd Coffey won’t be back, and though I don’t believe Blake Hawksworth is officially out for the year yet, all indications are that he won’t make it back in time either.)

It might not stop there, either. If the Dodgers make a waiver move in August to reinforce the team – which I think we all agree they’ll do – that’s potentially one or two additional spots, assuming no current member of the 40-man is traded. And then if they want to promote Allen Webster, John Ely, or any other minor leaguer who doesn’t currently have a spot, that’s even more room they’ll need to clear.

So it’s not impossible to think that the Dodgers may want to add five to seven players who aren’t currently on the roster, and they currently have just one spot to play with. How is that going to work? Obviously, circumstances can change over the next few weeks as moves get made, players get injured, and so on. Here’s some thoughts on who might go:

1) Matt Angle.  Angle was a nice waiver claim for depth last winter, but he’s hitting .272/.357/.371 away from Albuquerque and his trademark speed (just 8 steals after 27 in each of his previous 5 seasons) has disappeared. 27 in September, he’s no longer a “prospect”, and with Victorino, Gwynn, & Herrera around, the Dodgers are well-covered in center should Matt Kemp‘s hamstring act up again.

2) Justin Sellers. I think we all like Sellers, but when it comes to “good defensive infielders who can’t really hit,” well, isn’t that what Cruz is doing? Remember, the beauty of the DFA is that it’s not necessarily the end of a player’s tenure with the organization – Oeltjen remains with the Isotopes – and it’s probably not likely that Sellers would get claimed. If he does, not a huge loss. (If not Sellers, then Cruz. Seems hard to see them both on the 40-man.)

3) Alfredo Silverio to 60-day disabled list. Silverio was injured in a car accident last winter and will not play in 2012, but the Dodgers have resisted putting him on the 60-day DL (and off the 40-man roster) because it would require him to be promoted to the bigs and start accumulating MLB service time. It makes sense to not want to do that, yet with Puig already eating up a roster spot that may not be used for a while, it may be unavoidable now.

4) Kennedy and/or Uribe. Speaking of middle infielders who carry no value whatsoever… I was impressed somewhat by the Dodger decision to jettison Bobby Abreu this week, because while it seemed clear that Victorino’s arrival spelled the end of a role for Abreu, it’s not usually been like Colletti to let go of a veteran like that. With Jerry Hairston now available for more infield time, Dee Gordon on his way back, Ramirez in the mix, and Cruz being decent, there’s barely room for either one of these guys, much less two. I’d like to say both will be gone, but I don’t want to get too optimistic here. I’m not sure which one will go, but I guarantee one will.

5) Rivera and/or James Loney. This assumes the Dodgers make an August move for a first baseman. I’m assuming they will. If they do, there’s no room for two backup first basemen who can’t hit. (I’ll admit here how unlikely this seems, but it also illustrates just how packed the roster is right now.)

That’s a way to clear five spots, and it still might not be enough. (If the Dodgers do get Cliff Lee or another starter, maybe Stephen Fife gets a nice “smell you later”.) You could, I suppose, make a case for Ivan De Jesus or Josh Wall, though I think it’s probably not all that likely.

It’s complicated, but it’s also fun to be in situation where some of the bottom-feeders may be about to be shown the door. Moves are going to get made, that’s for sure – who do you think gets gone?

Open Question: How Different Will This Roster Look?

It’s something like 98 degrees where I am right now, with humidity pushing that up to feeling around 105. With that in mind, we’re going to keep it simple and put forth a simple thought exercise: how different will the 25-man roster look like when we wake up on August 1st as compared to what it is now?

For your reference, the current roster…

C: A.J. Ellis, Matt Treanor
IF: James Loney, Mark Ellis, Elian Herrera, Luis Cruz, Jerry Hairston, Adam Kennedy, Juan Uribe
OF: Bobby Abreu, Juan Rivera, Tony Gwynn, Scott Van Slyke

SP: Clayton Kershaw, Chad Billingsley, Chris Capuano, Aaron Harang, Nathan Eovaldi
RP: Kenley Jansen, Javy Guerra, Josh Lindblom, Jamey Wright, Ronald Belisario, Scott Elbert, Shawn Tolleson

You have Matt Kemp & Andre Ethier coming back next week, barring setbacks. You’ll have Rubby De La Rosa, Matt Guerrier, Ted Lilly, Dee Gordon, & Justin Sellers all at various stages of their own comebacks. (Blake Hawksworth was shut down last week and now seems unlikely to make it back this year.) You’ll have potential trade acquisitions, the constant drumbeat to DFA Uribe and/or Loney and/or Kennedy, and the ever-present fear of additional injuries.

So how many different people will we see on the 25-man roster immediately after the trade deadline? I’m going to say seven, more than a quarter of the roster. Kemp & Ethier will be two, of course. Then I’ll say three newcomers via trade, plus at least one additional injury and/or one internal move to churn the last spot on the roster, though it’s not hard for me to see even more trades or injuries than that.

Regardless of the quantity, I think we all know moves are coming, and so the team we’re watching today is all but certain to look very different in less than a month. You tell me: how different, exactly?