And Then There Were Eight…

Well, in theory. The Los Angeles Times is reporting that “at least eight” bidders have advanced to the second round of bidding for the Dodgers, so it’s not certain that there’s not other groups still in the running who we don’t know about.

But here’s what we do know so far: Mark Cuban & Dennis Gilbert are each out of the running. While Cuban’s departure will disappoint a lot of Dodger fans, this is hardly a surprise, since he’s been saying for a while that he placed a certain value on the Dodgers and likely wouldn’t be tossing out numbers above a billion dollars. Gilbert missing out is a bit more newsworthy, since he’s been rumored to be a serious bidder for years and I came away with a largely positive impression when I took an initial look at the bidders earlier this month, but with the dollar figures skyrocketing it’s quite possible he could keep up. (Or it could be what Peter Gammons is reporting, that Frank McCourt would never have selected Gilbert due to his relationship with Bud Selig.)

As for the eight survivors…

1) Magic Johnson/Stan Kasten/Mark Walter
2) Joe Torre/Rick Caruso
3) Steven Cohen (1-3 via Bill Shaikin in the Times)
4) Stanley Gold/Roy Disney
5) Peter O’Malley
6) Stan Kroenke (4-6 via Shaikin on Twitter)
7) Leo Hindery/Marc Utay (according to Wall Street Journal, via Dodger Thoughts)
8) Josh Macciello?? (perhaps – according to Macciello’s own Twitter)

Of course, it’s hardly as simple as that. We haven’t heard anything about some of the other groups, like the Orel Hershisher/Steve Garvey pairing, or Alan Casden, or Ron Burkle, or a few others, so since all we know is “at least eight” they could still be in. (And we’re just guessing about Macciello at the moment). Besides, even if these are the eight, they won’t all stay exactly as they are. We’ve already heard rumors that the O’Malley group might join the Gold/Disney team, and it’s still possible that Patrick Soon-Shiong or someone like him joins a group to add some financial muscle.

So while we’re making progress… there’s still a long way to go over the next two months until April 1, when McCourt has to make a choice. For the moment, I favor the Magic Johnson group over the others, with the Cohen, O’Malley, and Torre groups all having significant flaws in my eyes.

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Ghosts of Dodgers past: two of my least favorite Dodgers of recent years, Ryan Theriot and Juan Pierre, have found new homes. Theriot collects $1.25m to join the San Francisco infield, even though he can’t really hit or play shortstop anymore, and Pierre landed with the Phillies on a minor-league deal, even though he’s a poor fit for them despite the zero-risk deal he received. Fun fact: over the last two seasons with the White Sox, Pierre has a .277 batting average along with a .335 OBP and a 71.5 % success rate on stolen base attempts. In 2005-06, two seasons immediately preceding his arrival in Los Angeles, he had a .284 batting average to go with a .328 OBP and a 75.6% on steals. One of those two-year stretches earned him a non-roster invite to big league camp, and one earned him a five-year, $44m contract. And you wonder why the idea of a Joe Torre ownership, one that would potentially retain Ned Colletti, scares me?

Dodgers Drop Another Laugher


I’m going to have to think of new and interesting ways to say basically the same thing as always, which is that the Dodgers fell behind after a lousy starting pitching outing, had no prayer of a comeback because no one other than Matt Kemp & Andre Ethier can hit, and had to suffer through continuing atrocities from Juan Uribe & James Loney with no end in sight. Of the nine Dodger hits, five came from Kemp & Ethier. As the other four came from Rod Barajas, Tony Gwynn, Marcus Thames, and Ivan DeJesus (pinch-hitting), the Dodger infield once again contributed absolutely nothing. Stop me if you’ve heard any of that before.

Actually, there was one new addition to the list, and that was Clayton Kershaw struggling tremendously through his entire outing. You’re going to hear a lot about home plate umpire Joe West’s tight strike zone, and there’s absolutely merit to those complaints, but it’s not the sole reason Kershaw couldn’t get the job done. Kershaw just wasn’t himself from the start, showing an inability to miss bats, and while he did an admirable job of limiting the damage until allowing an Allen Craig blast in the 5th, this is not a team that can overcome anything but an outstanding starting pitching performance. The five walks Kershaw issued were tied for the second-most of his career. Following Kershaw, Mike MacDougal and Kenley Jansen were effective before Ramon Troncoso punched his own ticket back to AAA in the 8th and 9th, making the final score a lot uglier than it needed to be.

The Dodgers have now allowed 126 runs and 646 hits in the three games to St. Louis, and are still winless this year when allowing the other team to score first.

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Uribe, Loney… good lord. I don’t even know what to say after two more dueling oh-for-fours. Uribe saw just eight pitches in four at-bats. Think about that for a second. After seeing a few pitches his first time up, he made an out on the very first pitch each of the next three times up – all three times with runners in scoring position.

It’s cool, though. Not like Uribe’s a bad-body guy who’s over 30 and still has nearly three years and about $20m coming to him or anything.

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Before the game, Ned Colletti talked to Tony Jackson and claimed he wasn’t worried about the team’s recent play. Before you jump on him for that, remember that that’s exactly what he should say – the last thing we need is the GM publicly freaking out. I couldn’t help but laugh at this quote, though:

“We have faced good pitching,” Colletti said. “The Giants’ staff, obviously, is one of the best in the league. Colorado pitched well against us in two games, and then San Diego and [the Cardinals]. Those are four of the better pitching staffs in baseball, and that is also a part of [the struggles of] our offense.”

If his point is that they haven’t faced the true pitching dregs like the Mets or D-Backs yet, then fine, but come on. They didn’t have to face either Chris Carpenter (pitching tomorrow) or Adam Wainwright (injured) in the first three games, and also haven’t yet faced the four aces of the Phillies or the quality top two or three arms in places like Atlanta, Florida, Houston, Cincinnati and Milwaukee. The point is, there’s a lot of good pitching out there, and you’re going to need to hit it rather than complain about it if you plan on winning.

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I know I haven’t exactly been the biggest supporter of Ivan DeJesus, but can we please get him more time at second base instead of Aaron Miles? Maybe DeJesus is a big league player, and maybe he’s not, but at least there’s hope there. Miles (0-2 tonight, hitting .214) is just execrable, and that’s not likely to change. DeJesus at least got his first big league hit tonight, and there’s no reason to not be playing him.

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Come on, you didn’t think Ryan Theriot could come back to LA, get thrown out on the bases twice and have me let it go by, right?

The funny part about this second one below is that Barajas probably didn’t even tag Theriot, but Theriot clearly didn’t touch the plate. TOOTBLAN.

Ryan Theriot Traded For Living, Breathing, Human Being

The news keeps coming fast and furious:

The #Dodgers have traded Ryan Theriot to the #Cardinals in exchange for RHP Blake Hawksworth

Hawksworth is… well, he’s not Ryan Theriot, and that makes this a big win. Seriously, though, he’s a 27-year-old (28 in March) righty who’s pitched in 75 games for the Cards over the last two years, with all 8 of his starts coming in 2010. One of those starts came against the Dodgers on June 7, and it didn’t go well, as he allowed six ER in 4 IP.

He’s got a career FIP of 4.76, and he’s a fastball/change-up type with heat that averages about 93 MPH, so he’s certainly not great, but he’s not without his uses, and he’s not even arbitration-eligible until 2013. So maybe he’s a bullpen swingman, maybe he’s in the ABQ rotation (okay, perhaps not; I’ve been told he’s out of options). But most of all, he’s not Ryan Theriot – and that’s a win.

As for the Cardinals, is Theriot a perfect fit for a team that employs Brendan Ryan and Aaron Miles or what? Yeesh.

MSTI’s 2010 in Review: Second Base

Blake DeWitt (C)
.270/.352/.371 .723 1hr 1.1 WAR

I know a lot of people focused on the fact that DeWitt hit just one homer as a Dodger, and I won’t act as though that’s acceptable. But note that his OPS was .723, and then realize that James Loney and Casey Blake, playing the more traditional power positions of 1B and 3B, ended up at .723 and .727, respectively. If DeWitt wasn’t the answer, nor was he high on the list of problems.

After winning the second base job with a strong camp, DeWitt had just two extra-base hits (both doubles) in April, though he made up for it with an excellent .382 OBP. Despite ridiculous rumors that he’d be sent down in May, he managed to increase his OPS each month of the season he was with LA, from .681 in April to .745 in July.

In June, I noted that I was impressed with his gradual progression:

Just as I was about to write a post saying that while I’m pleased with Blake DeWitt‘s play this year, sooner or later he’s going to have to show some power, he crushes a three-run shot deep into the night, setting in motion a much-needed offensive showing by the Dodgers in a 12-4 win.  DeWitt’s got an .801 OPS since May 1, along with an improving glove, but he hadn’t been able to leave the yard until last night.

Though the various fielding metrics ranked him from average to slightly below, it was clear that all the hard work he’d put into the position switch was paying off, because the DeWitt we saw in July was far ahead of the DeWitt we saw in April.

Now, let’s be clear. He’s likely never going to be an All-Star, and I think his ceiling is as a solid everyday player with a good OBP and a bit of pop. Still, there’s value in that, especially considering he was just 24, and so you can imagine why I was so disappointed when he was dealt to Chicago in the Ted Lilly deal for the useless Ryan Theriot, who you’ll be reading more about in a second:

I can’t express my disappointment in this enough, and I don’t even like DeWitt all that much. I think he’s done a decent job, but with absolutely zero power and defense that’s average at best, he’s not really proving himself to be a piece you build around. I just want to repeat that; the Dodgers are giving up someone I’m not an enormous fan of, and this is still a big mistake.

I suppose that’s a topic we’ll get into more in the Ned Colletti review, though. As for DeWitt, between his miraculous initial success as the emergency Opening Day 3B in 2008, resurrection as the playoff second baseman later that year, driver of the LA-to-ABQ express in 2009, and fulltime second baseman in 2010, DeWitt built quite the career into his relatively short time in LA. He will be missed.

Ryan Theriot (F)
.242/.323/.283 .606 1hr -0.1 WAR

In what you’ll soon see is a recurring theme in these reviews, I’m trying not to blame the player for the misguided decisions of others. It’s not Ryan Theriot‘s fault that he was part of the regrettable Blake DeWitt/Ted Lilly deal, and it’s not his fault that Joe Torre insisted on hitting him 2nd all the time. And I’ll even admit that (probably in large part due to low expectations) I was pleasantly surprised with his defense at second base.

But it is Theriot’s fault that he made a lousy impression by getting on base just three times in his first eighteen plate appearances as a Dodger, and it’s definitely his fault that he started September on a 2-29 skid on his way to hitting .159/.260/.159 for the month. It is fault that his Dodger OPS was about 120 points less than even DeWitt’s modest mark, and it certainly doesn’t help that his last extra base hit of the season was a double on August 26th.

Really, I already went into detail about how awful Theriot is when I noted him in our arbitration decisions series, so let’s revisit that quickly:

Where should I start? Oh, I don’t know. How about with the fact that there’s 157 players who have accumulated at least 475 plate appearances in 2010, and Ryan Theriot is the 3rd-worst in baseball in OPS+? Beating out Alcides Escobar and Cesar Izturis is hardly an achievement:

Rk Player OPS+ PA Year Tm R H 2B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS
1 Miguel Cabrera 180 648 2010 DET 111 180 45 38 126 89 95 .328 .420 .622 1.042
153 Jason Kendall 70 490 2010 KCR 39 111 18 0 37 37 45 .256 .318 .297 .615
154 Jose Lopez 69 618 2010 SEA 48 141 28 10 58 22 65 .239 .269 .337 .606
155 Ryan Theriot 69 618 2010 TOT 68 153 15 2 29 38 73 .270 .319 .314 .633
156 Alcides Escobar 66 530 2010 MIL 56 115 14 4 40 33 66 .236 .287 .326 .612
157 Cesar Izturis 53 500 2010 BAL 42 109 13 1 28 24 53 .236 .282 .275 .557
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 9/28/2010.

“But,” you say, “OPS doesn’t measure defense, or position, or baserunning. That’s an unfair comparison.” Okay, then. Let’s go with WAR, and compare against only fellow second basemen. How does that turn out for Mr. TOOTBLAN? Well, he’s only the worst second baseman in baseball in 2010 (min. 300 PA):

Rk Player WAR/pos PA Tm R H 2B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS
1 Robinson Cano 5.5 672 NYY 100 193 39 28 105 55 76 .318 .378 .530 .908
25 Skip Schumaker 0.2 513 STL 64 122 18 5 41 43 63 .265 .331 .341 .671
Rk Player WAR/pos PA Tm R H 2B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS
26 Cristian Guzman 0.0 396 TOT 48 97 12 2 26 20 63 .266 .311 .337 .648
27 Gordon Beckham -0.3 498 CHW 58 112 25 9 49 37 92 .252 .317 .378 .695
28 Ryan Theriot -0.9 618 TOT 68 153 15 2 29 38 73 .270 .319 .314 .633
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 9/28/2010.

Man. I’m starting to wonder if the F grade was a bit generous. Now as I said, his defense was surprisingly nice, as should probably be expected from a former shortstop. But he’s going to be make something like $3.5m in arbitration this winter, perhaps more. He’s an offensive black hole. You can’t find good defense and comparable offense for about $3m less than that? Of course you can.

But make no mistake, he’ll be back. Of that, I have no doubt. And he’ll be hitting 2nd, because that’s what gritty 2nd basemen do.

Ronnie Belliard (Putting the F in DFA)
.216/.295/.327 .622 2hr -0.4 WAR

I suppose it was overshadowed by Garret Anderson‘s assault on the record books in all the wrong ways and the overall ineptitude of the offense, but I always thought that Belliard’s horrendous year flew under the radar a bit more than it should have. Sure, I suppose he earned some small benefit of the doubt with his performance in 2009 after coming over from Washington, but when he’s not hitting, he’s not valuable, since he’s a lousy fielder.

To be honest, I wasn’t really sure why he was re-signed in the first place, and yes, I’m regretting bagging on Jamey Carroll‘s shortstop skills right now:

Except… isn’t this exactly what Jamey Carroll was for? You know, a mediocre veteran who can play some 2nd and 3rd as needed? Because Belliard can’t play shortstop any more than Carroll can, and it was that “lack of a shortstop” issue that led to Nick Green getting a spring training invite.

So if this isn’t to fill that backup shortstop hole (since Belliard can’t do it) and it isn’t to be the 2B/3B backup bat off  the bench (since that’s ostensibly what Carroll’s here for), what the hell is Belliard’s role? Please don’t tell me he’s the Opening Day 2B, not until Blake DeWitt is given a chance to fail, and not with guys like Felipe Lopez and Orlando Cabrera still out there with rapidly falling contract demands.

Throughout the spring, the main intrigue with Belliard was whether he’d manage to make it under the magic number of 209 pounds, which he was contractually obligated to in order to see his contract become guaranteed:

Part of me wonders: do we even want him to? Blake DeWitt seems all but certain to win the second base job. Belliard’s presence (combined with Jamey Carroll) was mostly to have two options in case DeWitt flopped – but if he doesn’t, Belliard could be a little redundant.

To his credit, Belliard got off to a nice start, with an .849 OPS at the end of April. But it was all downhill from there, hitting just .194/.279/.274 until he was cut in August. When he was finally let go, I wondered why we’d never focused on it as much as we should have, and then tried to slip in a bit of a conspiracy theory:

Belliard’s incompetence is something I touched upon a few times this year, but probably never as much as it really deserved. I mean, since the beginning of July he was hitting just .175/.232/.222, with three extra base hits, and offering a lot of negative value on defense. His spot could have been put to better use months ago, and it wasn’t.

The timing of it makes me wonder. Just how much of Belliard’s continued employment was an attempt to make Manny Ramirez happy, since it’s well known that the two were good buddies? Manny’s been gone for barely a week, and now Belliard is out the door, despite no desperate roster need to do so, and no new on-field evidence to demand it (by that I mean, he doesn’t suck any more now than he already has all season).

I always figured that Belliard’s friendship with Manny was just a nice additional perk from a mostly useless backup infielder. Perhaps it was his only use to the club at all.

Ah, well. So long, Ronnie. We’ll always have the awkward way in which Orlando Hudson was minimized though, won’t we? Good times.

Nick Green (inc.)
.125/.222/.125 .347 0hr 0.0 WAR

I wanted to make a joke saying “Nick Green was a member of the 2010 Los Angeles Dodgers” and nothing more, because he got just nine unimportant plate appearances and I’d sort of forgotten he ever existed. But, this is probably a good time to look at how badly the team wanted to both acquire and keep him for some reason which I never did understand.

Remember, this is how I spoke of him when we first heard rumors:

If you don’t know much about Green, that’s because you shouldn’t. This is a guy who is 31 and has played for five teams in parts of five seasons, almost entirely as a backup. In 2009, he was pressed into service as Boston’s starting shortstop for nearly half the season thanks to a multitude of injuries, and responded with a pretty bad .236/.303/.366 line. That’s not even a case of a guy being exposed due to too much playing time; that mirrors exactly his career line of .239/.307/.352. Even in over 3000 PA appearances in the minors, his OBP is just .324. “Getting on base” is clearly not Nick Green’s strength, no matter where he plays.

“But hey,” you might say. “He’s a shortstop, so if he really can’t hit, he must be a whiz with the glove, right?” You’d say that, and you’d be wrong. For his entire career, he’s a whopping 0.6 fielding runs above average. That’s not horrible, but nor is it an asset.

So please, enlighten me. When you’re trying to come up with backup infielders, paying Nick Green more than you’d have to pay Chin-lung Hu to be 5 years older, a far inferior fielder, and a likely inferior batter (Hu at least has a .342 OBP in the minors, and at his age still has time to improve) makes sense in what way exactly?

Of course, when he signed the next month, I had this to add:

But you know what makes it even better? That’s three paragraphs about how Nick Green is a lousy ballplayer and a bad idea, and that was before I heard that he had back surgery this offseason. Back surgery, which he is behind schedule in recovering from.

Green didn’t make the roster, but he did report to ABQ until being called up when Rafael Furcal was injured, which I was thrilled about:

So what’s changed since then? The correct answer is “well, it’s only a month into the season, so unless Green’s already put up 20 homers while Hu broke his leg, that’s not nearly enough time to be more important than the last several years of established history”. But we all know it doesn’t work like that, because if it did we wouldn’t have seen any Ortizii on this squad.

In spring training – and yes, I know that these stats don’t mean much, but don’t pretend they don’t often decide jobs – Hu had a line of .281/.324/.281. Obviously there’s no power there, so it’s not stellar… but it’s also streets ahead of Green’s .139/.324/.167. After camp broke, neither one has been hitting very well in the first month at ABQ - Hu at .227/.261/.242, and Green at .219/.242/.438.

Of course Green got just one hit, and was eventually DFA’d when Scott Elbert came up. Let’s be honest; he was totally irrelevant, and I probably spent more time digging up those quotes than he did on the active roster. Don’t you love these infuriatingly bad veteran signings?

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Next! Rafael Furcal just can’t stay healthy! Jamey Carroll was actually pretty rad! Chin-lung Hu makes his yearly cameo! And wait, that’s Juan Castro? It’s shortstop!

Arbitration Decision: Ryan Theriot

Ha! Helllllll no.

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Okay, part of me contemplated just leaving it at that. But I suppose I should offer some backup. Where should I start? Oh, I don’t know. How about with the fact that there’s 157 players who have accumulated at least 475 plate appearances in 2010, and Ryan Theriot is the 3rd-worst in baseball in OPS+? Beating out Alcides Escobar and Cesar Izturis is hardly an achievement:

Rk Player OPS+ PA Year Tm R H 2B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS
1 Miguel Cabrera 180 648 2010 DET 111 180 45 38 126 89 95 .328 .420 .622 1.042
153 Jason Kendall 70 490 2010 KCR 39 111 18 0 37 37 45 .256 .318 .297 .615
154 Jose Lopez 69 618 2010 SEA 48 141 28 10 58 22 65 .239 .269 .337 .606
155 Ryan Theriot 69 618 2010 TOT 68 153 15 2 29 38 73 .270 .319 .314 .633
156 Alcides Escobar 66 530 2010 MIL 56 115 14 4 40 33 66 .236 .287 .326 .612
157 Cesar Izturis 53 500 2010 BAL 42 109 13 1 28 24 53 .236 .282 .275 .557
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 9/28/2010.

“But,” you say, “OPS doesn’t measure defense, or position, or baserunning. That’s an unfair comparison.” Okay, then. Let’s go with WAR, and compare against only fellow second basemen. How does that turn out for Mr. TOOTBLAN? Well, he’s only the worst second baseman in baseball in 2010 (min. 300 PA):

Rk Player WAR/pos PA Tm R H 2B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS
1 Robinson Cano 5.5 672 NYY 100 193 39 28 105 55 76 .318 .378 .530 .908
25 Skip Schumaker 0.2 513 STL 64 122 18 5 41 43 63 .265 .331 .341 .671
Rk Player WAR/pos PA Tm R H 2B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS
26 Cristian Guzman 0.0 396 TOT 48 97 12 2 26 20 63 .266 .311 .337 .648
27 Gordon Beckham -0.3 498 CHW 58 112 25 9 49 37 92 .252 .317 .378 .695
28 Ryan Theriot -0.9 618 TOT 68 153 15 2 29 38 73 .270 .319 .314 .633
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 9/28/2010.

(Before anyone mentions it, yes I’m using B-ref’s WAR, and FanGraphs has a different flavor of it. There, he’s at 0.1, but that’s still next to last among 2B. It’s still not good.)

Want more? Since August 31st, Theriot’s hitting a robust .129/.228/.129, which works out to 9 hits in 81 plate appearances. He hasn’t had an extra base hit since August 26th, more than a month ago. I’m pretty sure Troy Tulowitzki picked up two while I was writing that sentence.

Oh, and Theriot turns 31 this winter and stands to make about $3.5m in arbitration. This is why I hated the deal that brought Theriot over so much; it’s not because I love Blake DeWitt, because I don’t, but because Theriot is older, more expensive, and adds little value. I will admit that he’s been better defensively than I had anticipated, but that’s probably in part due to my low expectations coming in. I suppose it shouldn’t be a surprise that a mediocre shortstop would make a decent defensive second baseman, though.

That said, “a bit above average” with the glove can’t compensate for “complete trainwreck of a disaster” at the plate. So if you’re still wondering whether Theriot deserves an arbitration offer, well, of course he doesn’t. If you’re willing to have a second baseman with an OPS+ of about 70, you can do it for a hell of a lot less than $3.5m. If you’re going to pay that, you won’t get a star, but you can at least get someone adequate. Someone with numbers like this, and headed in the wrong direction – since his “peak” in 2008, his BA and OBP have declined precipitously the last two years – is barely worth a roster spot, much less several million dollars. You can find a better way to use the money and the position, and I’ll touch on how to do that once the season is over.

But these are all pesky “facts”. I brought up the Theriot case on Twitter earlier this week, and people like ESPNLA’s Ramona Shelburne made their cases that they think the Dodgers will bring Theriot back, and I completely agree. I think they will bring him back, if only because he’s got a nice (if empty) batting average, top-notch “grit”, and they want to have something to show for this July’s disastrous trading deadline, especially if Ted Lilly leaves. Ryan Theriot will be back in 2011. But it sure doesn’t mean he should be.

Verdict: not a chance in hell should he be offered arbitration.