Braves 8, Dodgers 5: Have a Day, Scott Van Slyke

vanslyke_atlanta_atbat_2013-05-17Let’s see… should we talk about Scott Van Slyke, who made a great diving catch in the fifth, then hit homers in both the sixth and the eighth?

Or should we talk about the grand slam Justin Upton hit off of Paco Rodriguez that still hasn’t landed, and the mess of fielding miscues by Luis Cruz, Dee Gordon, & Carl Crawford? Or the 0-5 Matt Kemp took, ending his hitting streak? Or that no one seems to want to talk about the fact that Gordon is now hitting just .200/.280/.311, because he’s, you know, not a great baseball player?

Right, I didn’t think so. The impressive Van Slyke becomes the first Dodger rookie with a multihomer game since 2006, when Matt Kemp, James Loney, Andre Ethier, & Cody Ross all managed the feat, and he’s certainly staking a claim to stick around here for a while. There’s no question that there’s a role for him; we’ve been dying for a righty 1B/OF option with power for literally years — no hyperbole at all — and Juan Rivera was never the man we were looking for. On a team with three lefty starters at first and the outfield corners who all tend to get banged up in some way, how can you not need a guy like that over yet another utility infielder?

Now, whether Van Slyke is that man remains to be seen. Not to drive the point into the ground, but it’s difficult to forget that even the Astros & Marlins wouldn’t touch him for free this winter. But I’m open to the idea that a player can improve if there’s real evidence behind it other than just “derrr, he’s got potential”, and Van Slyke clearly showed a commitment to both his conditioning and his mechanics since last season. That’s to his credit, of course, but it’s also a matter of survival; if even the bottom feeders don’t want you, then what you’re doing isn’t working.

I won’t go so far as to say that Van Slyke’s role is set in concrete, because it’s not. But I also can’t come up with a single legitimate reason why it would be him and not Cruz or Ramon Hernandez who leaves town when Mark Ellis is ready to return to the team, perhaps as soon as early next week. I’ll give Van Slyke this, at least: he was going to have to impress early, as unfairly as that is, and that’s what he’s done so far, on both sides of the ball.

Lost in the late inning fireworks on both sides was a mediocre outing from Hyun-jin Ryu, who failed to get more than 15 outs for the first time this season. Ryu’s usually pinpoint control wasn’t quite there today, as he walked five in five innings and never really looked comfortable, but good on him for managing to get through five with only two runs allowed despite clearly not having his best stuff.

Dodgers 5, Marlins 3: Scott Van Slyke, For You

vanslyke_2013-05-12That was, all in all, a relatively uneventful and workmanlike victory over an inferior roster. I say that without any negative connotation whatsoever; after all that’s happened to this Dodger team so far, sometimes a quiet, effective win is about the best you could ask for.

Chris Capuano was solid in allowing just a Justin Ruggiano solo homer while pitching into the seventh, but the hero of the day is clearly Scott Van Slyke. In his first start of the season, the 26-year-old repaid the faith of all those who insisted the Dodgers should have called him up two weeks ago, crushing a Tom Koehler pitch just out of Ruggiano’s reach in his first plate appearance for the first scoring of the game. He finished off the scoring with an RBI single in the seventh, wrapped around a few solid defensive plays at first base; I won’t say that one game has substantially changed my opinion about a player who went unclaimed by all of baseball when he was DFA’d last winter, but I’m much happier having someone with his profile than yet another punchless utility player like Elian Herrera.

Elsewhere, Carl Crawford & Matt Kemp each had two hits — for Kemp, that makes him the fifth fastest Dodger to reach 1,000 career hits — and once again, special attention must be paid to Juan Uribe, who didn’t even get into the game until the seventh but still had a hit and a walk, scoring on an Andre Ethier sacrifice fly. He also made an excellent defensive play in the ninth to prevent Brandon League from blowing a lead — we can talk more about this later, but for every “why isn’t Kenley Jansen the closer?!” complaint, remember that League could have just as easily been awful in the eighth when Jansen was striking out four of five — and so far this year, Uribe has a .420 on base percentage. I will never get over this.

Projecting the Dodgers’ Minor-League Rosters: Double-A & Triple-A

Editor’s note: Chris Jackson rounds off the minor league roster projections with Chattanooga & Albuquerque. Also, don’t forget to enter the Opening Day roster contest — open through 9pm PT tonight!

Van Slyke is one of nine outfielders who will vie for an Isotopes roster spot this spring. (Photo courtesy of the Isotopes)

Scott Van Slyke is one of nine outfielders who will vie for an Isotopes roster spot this spring. (Photo courtesy of the Isotopes)

Chattanooga Lookouts (Double-A Southern League)

Starting rotation: Onelki Garcia, Zach Lee, Aaron Miller, Rob Rasmussen, Chris Reed

All prospects, all the time, in east Tennessee this year! Garcia has the most pure stuff, but the least experience. Lee and Reed will hope their potential matches the results this season. Miller will have to fight to keep his starting spot after a middling season. Rasmussen will get some attention as the new guy in the organization.

Bulllpen: Geison Aguasviva, Steve Ames, Kelvin De La Cruz, Eric Eadington, Jordan Roberts, Andres Santiago, Chris Withrow

That is a lot of lefties, but it is hard to figure out where else to put them. De la Cruz is not a LOOGY and will give them a second long reliever to go with Santiago, who could start if Miller struggles. Aguasviva could fight his way to Albuquerque. Roberts is 27, so if he can’t stick here, his time with the Dodgers may be done. Ames and Eadington figure to share the closing job, though Withrow could see saves, too, now that the Dodgers have committed to him as a reliever. Just missed: Javier Solano

Catchers: Gorman Erickson, Christopher O’Brien

Erickson will be looking for some redemption after a lousy 2012. O’Brien was decent enough at Rancho to merit the promotion.

Infielders: 1B–J.T. Wise, 2B–Rafael Ynoa, SS–Alexis Aguilar, 3B–C.J. Retherford, UTIL–Joe Becker, Omar Luna

Wise and Ynoa have played well enough to earn promotions, but they are blocked at Albuquerque barring some trades. Aguilar is the pick I am least confident in; it could be a half-dozen other guys. In other words, please, Dodgers, sign some random Cuban defector shortstop to spare the poor fans in Chattanooga watching a guy with a career .662 OPS. Retherford had a big year at Rancho, but struggled with the Lookouts, so he will return here. Luna and Becker didn’t play a lot of shortstop last year, but they sure could this year. Just missed: Chris Jacobs 1B, Elevys Gonzalez 3B/2B, Miguel Rojas 2B/SS

Outfielders: LF–Yasiel Puig, CF–Joc Pederson, RF–Blake Smith, OF–Nick Buss, Bobby Coyle

Puig and Pederson are premium prospects. They both figure to play all three outfield spots here. Smith deserves to move up, and he certainly could, but for now I have him starting with the Lookouts. Buss and the talented but oft-injured Coyle return. Just missed: Kyle Russell

Final analysis: If some of the pitchers can translate their potential into results, then this team could be the favorite to win the Southern League. The rotation is six-deep and strong, while the bullpen is strong from both sides of the mound. The outfield should carry the offense, with shortstop being the only real concern on the infield. The Lookouts should be fun to watch this season.

Albuquerque Isotopes (Triple-A Pacific Coast League)

Starting rotation: Fabio Castro, Stephen Fife, Matt Magill, Matt Palmer, Mario Santiago

Magill is the legit prospect here. Fife returns and will be the first called up in the event of an injury to a starter in L.A. Palmer can chew up innings, but that is it. Castro was terrible last year with the A’s organization and might not last long in Albuquerque. Santiago is a gamble, with the Dodgers/Isotopes hoping he can carry over the success he found in Korea last year with the SK Wyverns.

Bullpen: Michael Antonini, Blake Johnson, Hector Nelo, Red Patterson, Paco Rodriguez, Cole St. Clair, Shawn Tolleson, Josh Wall

Antonini’s health is in question, so he might not crack this group. Rodriguez and Tolleson both deserve to pitch in the Majors, but I have Javy Guerra and Ted Lilly taking the last two spots. Johnson and St. Clair return in the long relief roles. Wall should close again. Patterson moves up, but it could easily be Ames instead. Nelo, a minor-league Rule 5 pick, gets the nod over the plethora of Triple-A vets signed this off-season. I am also betting that the veteran trio of Kevin Gregg, Mark Lowe, and Peter Moylan will opt out at the end of the spring. Just missed: Juan Abreu, Victor Garate, Gregory Infante, Wilmin Rodriguez, Luis Vasquez

Catchers: Jesus Flores, Matt Wallach

Flores could easily be subbed out for Federowicz if the Dodgers opt to have the prospect play every day and the veteran back up A.J. Ellis. Consider them interchangeable. Wallach has never hit, but he plays good defense and seems like a safe bet to the backup. Just missed: Eliezer Alfonzo, Wilkin Castillo, Ramon Castro

Infielders: 1B–Nick Evans, 2B–Elian Herrera, SS–Dee Gordon, 3B–Dallas McPherson, UTIL–Rusty Ryal, Justin Sellers

Evans always earned rave reviews for his defense, which could be a big help for Gordon’s wild throws (remember how Mark Teixeira made Derek Jeter look better back in 2009?). While it can be speculated that Gordon could or should be in the Majors, until he proves otherwise, I have him here. Sellers is another guy most people are counting out, but the Dodgers have not dumped him yet, even after his arrest in Sacramento. Herrera can, and likely will, play everywhere, but he should play almost every day. McPherson will DH against AL teams, since his back is unlikely to hold up for 144 games. Ryal gets the nod because the Isotopes need the left-handed bat. Just missed: Alfredo Amezaga UTIL, Brian Barden 3B, Ozzie Martinez SS

Outfielders: LF–Scott Van Slyke, CF–Tony Gwynn Jr., RF–Alex Castellanos, OF–Jeremy Moore

Unless Castellanos returns to the infield, this outfield is tough to figure out. Both he, Moore and Van Slyke are all right-handed hitters, so it would make a lot of sense for someone like Smith (who hits left-handed) to move up from Chattanooga. Unless the Isotopes only carry seven relievers (which, fat chance), it won’t happen unless the Dodgers move Van Slyke in a trade. Moore gets that backup spot because he can play all three positions and because the Dodgers obviously think very highly of him as he was the only free agent to participate in their prospect minicamp last month. Just missed: Matt Angle, Brian Cavazos-Galvez

Final analysis: This team does not look as talented as last year’s playoff squad, at least on paper. The rotation looks awfully suspect behind Fife and Magill. The bullpen could be good, at least. The lineup lacks left-handed bats, but should be able to score enough runs to keep games interesting. If the Dodgers can’t find any additional starting pitchers, however, it could be a long summer of 12-10 scores in Albuquerque, which this reporter is not very interested in watching anymore.

2012 Dodgers in Review #25: RF Scott Van Slyke

.167/.196/.315 57pa 2hr -0.2 fWAR (inc.)

2012 in brief: Andy Van Slyke‘s kid showed good raw power and a strong throwing arm in limited time, but little else.

2013 status: Under team control, but guys who don’t get September call-ups generally shouldn’t expect much of a shot in camp the next year.

******

When Scott Van Slyke was recalled in early May after Juan Rivera was hurt, it was notable mostly because it wasn’t the terribly struggling Jerry Sands who got the call, signalling a potential shift in the organizational depth chart. As I argued at the time, his window to impress seemed to be open, but only for a short period:

But the Dodgers are likely to fill at least one of the holes at first base or left field this winter – if not both – and for the moment, he’s fallen behind Van Slyke, who has nothing but opportunity staring him in the face. With Rivera out and Jerry Hairston likely to join him on the DL, Van Slyke is sharing time at first base and left field with Loney, Gwynn, & Abreu, all of whom are lefty, and none of whom have the standing to command an everyday spot in the lineup. Assuming Don Mattingly doesn’t foolishly stick Van Slyke into a strictly lefties-only diet – and as he’s shown little of a platoon split in the minors, there seems to be no reason to – he’s likely to see a lot of playing time over the next few weeks until Rivera is ready to return.

Van Slyke has a history of starting slow at new levels, a reputation he’s been able to shake so far this year in Triple-A. With such a perfect opening for him in Los Angeles right now, with Sands struggling behind him, Silverio completely off the radar, injured or ineffective veterans ahead of him, and a window before the club considers trades or free agent signings, Van Slyke’s time is now. It’d do both him and the Dodgers well if he could take advantage of that.

Van Slyke was impressive in his debut, with a two-RBI double, a walk, a steal, and a laser of a throw from right field to third base. And of course, he had a memorable pinch-hit three-run homer to top the Cardinals on May 20. But that was really it; Don Mattingly didn’t seem to want to play him, allowing him just 6 starts and 33 PA before being sent back down on June 2. Van Slyke returned near the end of the month when Andre Ethier was slowed by an oblique strain and picked up 4 more starts & 15 plate appearances (with just two hits), then was optioned back to make room for the returning Matt Kemp & Ethier after the All-Star Break. Van Slyke was never seen again, not even in September.

It’s hard to say Van Slyke got a real shot, though oddly he did get to hit third, fourth, or fifth in six of his starts. (This says far more about the state of the team at the time than it does about him, of course.) Then again, it’s hard to say I ever really expected much out of him, because he’s not that young – he’ll be 27 next July – and 2012 was his eighth season in the minors. His good size and impressive raw power could allow him some big-league time as a bench bat, though I don’t expect much more than that; he’s most likely going to spend most or all of 2013 in Albuquerque.

Then again, once Carl Crawford returns, the Dodgers will have lefties at first base, left field, & right field, and so there’s an obvious need for a righty bat who can step in as needed for some platoon duty. With Sands gone, could Van Slyke be that player? I’m not sure if he can be; I’m also not sure, judging by the September snub, if he’ll even get the opportunity. The team apparently now sees him as strictly an outfielder, which doesn’t help his chances either.

******

Next up! We finally move on to the pitching staff with your friend & mine, Clayton Kershaw!

Scott Van Slyke Is Your Hero Du Jour As Dodgers Sweep

With two on and the Dodgers down 5-3 in the bottom of the seventh, Andre Ethier struck out for the second out of the inning. Rather than send up veteran Adam Kennedy, who’d already reached base twice in the game, Don Mattingly identified that Cardinal pitcher Marc Rzepczynski is death on lefties, and dipped into his bench to call on rookie outfielder Scott Van Slyke. Let’s call that, “surprising decision number one”. Rzepczynski quickly fell behind 3-0, the kind of situation where just about every rookie would have the bat glued to his shoulder.

But in his second surprising – and I say that not in a negative way, just in that these were not decisions I would normally have expected Mattingly to make – decision of the at-bat, Mattingly gave Van Slyke the green light on 3-0. One pitch deposited into the left field bleachers later, the Dodgers had a 6-5 lead, Van Slyke had his first career home run, and the Dodgers had continued their streak of what seems to be a new hero every single night.

That blast was dearly needed, because it was the only extra-base hit the Dodgers had among their 14 hits on the day – no, that’s not a typo, as you can probably guess – which meant that despite all the runners they had on base, they’d managed a mere three runs, not enough to overcome a somewhat backwards Chad Billingsley start. When he struggled to begin the game tonight, he kept the runs off the board. When he was making better pitches, he got victimized for five runs. Baseball is just a ridiculous sport sometimes.

Facing ten St. Louis batters over the first two innings, Billingsley allowed four singles and three walks, including loading the bases with no outs in the top of the second. He managed to escape the first inning in part to a K/CS double play, then ended the mess in the second by getting Rafael Furcal to bounce into a 1-2-3 double play; he then set down the Cardinals in order in the third & fourth, including strikeouts of Matt Holliday, Carlos Beltran, & David Freese, and it looked like he’d found the groove.

Yet in the fifth, the Cards scored three in an inning fueled mainly by Billingsley’s error before allowing a Skip Schumaker triple; in the sixth, he allowed two more on three of the bloopiest bloops that ever BABIP’d. That’s not to excuse his entire performance, of course, because he was consistently missing spots, just that between the tight zone, defensive miscues, and well-placed balls, this was a Billingsley start which required far more than just reading the final stat line.

Then again, tonight was a night of miscues all around. Cory Blaser’s strike zone behind the plate was about the size of a thimble, affecting both pitchers but seemingly focusing more on Billingsley. Beyond Billingsley’s own error, Justin Sellers‘ error leading off the sixth wasn’t directly responsible for runs, but got the only other inning in which the Cardinals scored off to the wrong foot. At least two St. Louis outs on the bases – Furcal trying to steal in the first & Yadier Molina attempting to advance to third in the sixth – were incorrectly called. And then perhaps the funniest of all, Kennedy stroked a single to right field in the bottom of the sixth, which Beltran played as though it was a chemical weapon – yet instead of the single + error it should have been, it’ll go into the books as a triple for Kennedy.

Still, for the first Dodger game on national TV this year, it was an unqualified success. Elian Herrera & Bobby Abreu each had three hits, while Andre Ethier & James Loney each had two – and don’t look now, but Loney has been very good recently. In relief of Billingsley, Javy Guerra, Josh Lindblom, & Kenley Jansen pitched three flawless innings. About the only thing that didn’t go perfectly was A.J. Ellis failing to get on base for the first time in over a month, ending his consecutive games streak one short of the Dodger record for catchers. You should probably vote him for All-Star anyway, just to console him.

With the sweep of the division-leading Cardinals, the Dodgers should hopefully have made a statement. They’re 28-13, the best record in baseball. I can’t believe just about anything that’s happening right now, but I love it.