Category Archives: season in review

MSTI.com's 2007 In Review: Bench

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Hey… hooray! The bench! An ode to those other guys who just haven’t been touched upon yet. Bring us your tired.. old veterans. Bring us your poor.. young rookies. Bring us your huddled masses.. who can’t get off the trainer’s table.  

It’s a real motley crew here. And when you see who we’re dealing with, you might actually wish this was a discussion of Bret Michaels and Rikki Rockett. But we soldier on towards our sadistic goal of mentioning everyone who played in 2007. And then on to the Hot Stove League? I’m sure nothing’s really going to happen with that, anyway.

(All stats for these dudes are in Dodger blue only. Remember, less than 100 AB earns you an imcomplete.)

Olmedo Saenz (D-)
(.191/.295/.345 4hr 18rbi)

Hey, this is an easy one. We already went over the last death throes of Big Sexy in LA. But so much has changed since then! Oh wait, no, he was still terrible this year. We’ll miss ya, Sexy.

Ramon Martinez (D… ish?)
(.194/.248/.225 0hr 27rbi)ph_134002.jpg

Ah, the Wrong Ramon Martinez. How you did suck. I mean, look at those stats. Unreal. And even after a surprisingly decent 2006. With a 0.0% chance he’ll be back in 2008, let’s focus on what is really the only interesting thing that Martinez was able to accomplish this year: 25 hits, 27 RBI. How is that even possible?

Mark Sweeney (inc.) 
(.273/.294/.303 0hr 3rbi)ph_123040.jpg

Sweeney only had 33 at-bats for the Dodgers (totally worth giving up Travis Denker for, by the way). So it’s sort of hard to say anything meaningful about him. What’s 33 at-bats anyway? Not a long enough time to do anything worthwhile, that’s for sure. No, I put some thought into it, and absolutely nothing happened involving Mark Sweeney that had anything to do with the 2007 Dodgers season.

(three outs in an inning, jackass!!!)

Wilson Valdez (inc.)
(.216/.263/.270 0hr 7rbi)

Ah, yes. Mr. Valdez. If you’ve ever wondered how to make a baseball team, a good formula would be to have a incredibly hot spring training (.356/.373/.548 with 3hr) wildly out of line with your career norms, and have an out of control teammate (more on Mr. Repko later) take out the ph_407832.jpgstarter at your position before Opening Day. Actually, I’ve got to hand it to Valdez. In his short time in the bigs, he played 5 positions without committing an error, and was actually pretty flashy at SS and 2B. Sure, he couldn’t hit a lick. But he was an able defensive fill-in. That said, I like to think that Tony Abreu and/or Chin-Lung Hu has stolen that position for 2008, and that Valdez enjoys his time in Las Vegas, never to return except in case of massive food poisoning attacks in LA.

Chin-Lung Hu (inc.)
(.241/.241/.517 2hr 5rbi)

Huuuu….. are you?ph_464341.jpg
Hu hu? Hu Hu?

Okay, cheesy, but expect to hear plenty of it. And some really, really bad puns from Vin (the real one) about “Hu’s on first”.

Chin-Lung Hu coming into 2007: reputation as one of the best defensive SS in the minors, mediocre-at-best hitter. That’s what a .254/.328/.338 line (ugh) in double-A in 2006 will do for you. Being a great fielder is nice, but if you can’t hit, well that just makes you.. Wilson Valdez. And even Wilson Valdez doesn’t want to be Wilson Valdez.

Chin-Lung Hu coming into 2008: Well, now!! Let’s see. Hu kills the ball in big league spring training (.381/.409/.429!). Hu goes back to AA Jacksonville and not only improves his hitting (.329/.380/.508) but actually leads the entire league in hits and doubles at the time of his promotion. Hu moves on up to AAA Las Vegas and not only keeps on hitting (.318/.337/.505 with 8hr in only 45 games), but gets himself elected MVP of the Futures Game at All-Star Weekend, thanks to his 2-2, 2rbi, 1sb showing. Finally, he gets a late-season chance to play in the bigs, and slugs .517 with 2hr in a short 29 at-bat cup of coffee.

So what happened? Vitamin S? Deal with the devil?

He hit over .300 in his first three minor league seasons before slumping to .254 at Jacksonville last year, when a “tired eye” obscured his vision at the plate.

“I see the ball better now and I’m more comfortable because last year I couldn’t see,” Hu said. “Last year my eye was not healthy, but this year it’s working so it’s better.”

51s hitting coach Mike Easler was Jacksonville’s batting instructor last year and confirmed that the eye problem hampered Hu, who underwent an MRI exam after the season, rested and recovered.

Oh. You mean it’s a lot easier to hit when you can see the ball? No kidding!

So now in the space of one season, Hu has gone from “great glove/might not hit enough to stick” to “great glove/may be one of the better hitting SS around”. So much so that I wouldn’t mind seeing Furcal get dealt for something good and letting Hu get a crack at SS. Not a bad year at all.

Delwyn Young (inc.)
(.382/.417/.647 2hr 3rbi)

Explain something to me. You have a team that’s pretty good, but is flawed in one major area: power. You could use some power. Now, you’ve got a young player in the minors who’s done nothing but hit. Double-digit home runs in every season, and improving every year. Yet ph_434704.jpgsomehow he keeps getting stuck in AAA. So he goes back to Vegas for the 3rd time last year and has his best season yet – including a PCL record for doubles (54) and an awesome stat-line of .337/.384/.571 (dig that .955 OPS!). He gets a shot in the bigs and continues to hit in his small opportunity: 1.064 OPS and 2hr in only 32 at-bats. He even goes 4-4 in his second start. He’s a mediocre fielder, sure, but there’s no question he can hit, and he’s even a local boy.

So tell me: why is Delwyn Young never mentioned when it comes to the Dodgers young players? Why does it seem he’s never even considered for a decent shot with the big club? Why does Juan Pierre get $44 million while Delwyn Young – obviously a much superior hitter – can’t even get a chance?

No sir, I don’t get it.

Brady Clark (inc.)
(.224/.308/.293 0hr 5rbi)bradyclark.jpg

Remember Brady Clark? He was about to get cut by Milwaukee in spring training, just like we were about to cut Elmer Dessens. They had one too many outfielders, LA had one too many pitchers. Plus, Jason Repko had just hurt himself – again – so we actually needed a backup OF. Sounds peachy, right? So Clark rots on the bench, does little but play decent defense and.. ah, hell. Kemp and Ethier were better, and Gonzo and Pierre weren’t going anywhere. Brady got cut, went to San Diego, we barely remember him, who cares.

Marlon Anderson (inc.)
(.231/.310/.231 ohr 2rbi)

Let’s not even bother talking about Marlon Anderson’s 2007 – he didn’t do anyhl7iio3h.jpgthing in LA, and frankly I remember him more this year for the Mets’ laughable attempts to play him in center field while Beltran was hurt. I can remember at least three diving attempts in which he didn’t come close to catching the ball, but did almost rip his own arm off. So let’s just pour one out on the curb in one last rememberance of Marlon’s ridiculous, insane 1.243 OPS in Sept ’06, including being part of the back-to-back-to-back-to-back HR game. Thank you, Marlon – thank you. Now let us never speak of you again.

Jason Repko (inc.)
Oh, right. That guy. The guy who missed the whole season. repkohurt.jpgBecause he got hurt. Again. Except this time, he didn’t just fuck up his own ankle/hamstring/knee/ finger/back/kidney/duodenum. This time, he had to go take out All-Star SS Rafael Furcal. And since Furcal is a warrior, he played the whole season on a bum ankle, and was generally ineffective the entire season. So with a 1-2 of injured Furcal and crappy Pierre, the entire Dodgers offensive season was torpedoed. Thanks Jason! No really, thanks for showing up. I like the guy, but I hope he’s not back next season for fear he runs over Russell Martin with a golf cart or actually slams a car door on Takashi Saito’s fingers. 

- Mike Scioscia’s tragic illness msti-face.jpg

MSTI.com's 2007 In Review: Right Field

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O.K., first thing of note: no, this feature didn’t die. Another thing to note: I haven’t died either, just life caused a delay or twenty, but I am back and ready to tackle right field!

Andre Ethier = B+andre-ethier.jpg

(.284/.350/.452, 13 HR’s, 64 RBI’s)

2007 Recap: O.K., so we all remember when Ethier came up in May of 2006 against the Diamondbacks, he went off on a tear that lasted for three months and was the key cog in the Dodgers’ offense. In fact, from when he came up in early May until the All-Star break, his stat line was the following: .352/.403/.545. I mean, he really just came out of nowhere, and played solid defense to go with it.

Alas, as the second half began, his numbers began to dive and then in September, he lost his starting job to Marlon Anderson. His September decline was sharp and left many skeptics wondering how he’d do for 2007, but many people forget just how horribly he was handled. During the second half, Ethier ended up getting Grady’d and went through the Russell Martin treatment: he would be sent out there almost daily. To demonstrate this, here is a monthly total of the games he started: May = 18, June = 14, July = 25, August = 27. Oh yeah, that also included a stretch of playing every single inning of every single game from August 15th-September 7th. Hmm… first year player, no days off, late in the season, even admitting that he is mentally drained, and also battled a reported shoulder injury on August 10th on a diving catch… whatever caused that decline?!

But fret not, Ned had a solution to this. After Andre’s top 5 finish in the Rookie Of The Year voting, back in the deep, dark secretive Dodgers front office in Los Angeles, Ned says: “You know, that Andre kid really needs some rest. So you know what I’ll do? I’m going to run him out of a starting job and replace him with an older, more expensive Gonzo!”

Ethier then wound up platooning with Matt Kemp until the right field wall said: “eat that, motherfucker!” and knocked Kemp out. But while Ethier got the starting right field job back, he failed to capitalize for the first two months, hitting .250/.282/.458 in April, and .289/.333/.378 in May. Just being entirely observational, after hearing that he felt that the Dodgers maybe didn’t want him after his late 2006 collapse, it seemed the lack of stable playing time might have made him press a bit more. Compounding the problem was, by his admission, the lack of communication between him and then-hitting coach Eddie Murray, but this was fixed once Bill Mueller stepped in and then Andre really took off. He hit .286/.405/.443 in June and was just flat out insane in July, hitting a massive .383/.471/.550. Alas, in August and September, he nosedived again, hitting .268/.315/.488 in August and .247/.317/.425 in September.

So, it was kind of a bipolar type of year. Had a tough start, then had two REALLY awesome months and then started to fade again. However, despite some of the down months, he was still able to rank 4th (only counting players that are qualified enough in AB’s, which means bye bye Loney and Kemp) in BA, OBP, 3rd in SLG%, OPS, OPS+, 2nd in WPA and 1st in getting screwed over by your manager and having to hit eighth in the lineup, which brings me to one of the things that pissed me off the most this past season. Yeah, for the first half of the season, it was hard to complain about Gonzo’s production: he produced, can’t argue that. But once he predictably regressed, Ethier took off, and should have become the starting left fielder. After all, who has the better chance of improving or at least has the better chance of being the better player in the long run: a 25 year old who is already putting up comparable numbers or a declining 40 year old? Instead, Grady kept sending out Gonzo, and, for it, wasted the tear that Ethier was on. For crying out loud…

July 2007 Stats:

Gonzo: .256/.287/.317

Games started: 21

Ethier: .383/.471/.550

Games started: 13

Yeah… what the fuck?

And even despite the dive Ethier had at the end of the season…

Ethier 2nd Half Stats:

.286/.354/.472

Gonzo 2nd Half Stats:

.251/.316/.368

I settled on the B+ because his year wasn’t in the Loney, Kemp or Martin mold of awesomeness, but it wasn’t bad either. Going into this year, there were still many who weren’t sure what to expect after the September 2006 collapse. But after the slow start, he avoided the sophomore slump and showed that he is still very much a competent hitter and was the lone arm in the Dodgers’ outfield. If I had one word to describe him, I would say dependable. He is probably not the type of guy who will get the most attention, but a good hitter he is. I’ve always enjoyed watching his ability to work the count and show a patience at the plate, something sorely lacking from the 2007 lineup, and his hitting mechanics are very smooth. Of course, it was also pretty nice to see him come through many times throughout the season, as alluded to earlier with the WPA ranking.

2008 Recap: As some know in various parts, Ethier is my favorite Dodger; I mean, he’s a good hitter, and probably the best outfielder we had defensively last year… no, check that, clearly the best outfielder we had defensively. However, out of all the kids, I see his ceiling probably being the lowest. That’s not to say his ceiling isn’t high, but just not the superstar levels of a Loney, Martin, Thunder Thighs or Kemp. Because of this, that makes him the most tradeable this winter for the big bat, but don’t underestimate him either. If he can get regular playing time, and not have to 1. be benched after getting 3 hits and 2. not having to hit eighth to get those hits, I can see him having a better year with a line of around, say, .285/.360/.460 with around 20 HR’s or so. Consider that he’s still 25, only making the league minimum, there’s virtually no need for a Jones, Hunter or Rowand, etc. in what would be an arguable marginal improvement for a gazillion dollars more.

matt-kemp2.jpg

 

Matt Kemp = A

(.342/.373/.521, 10 HR’s, 42 RBI’s)

2007 Recap: After expecting to start the season in Triple-A due to 1. his awful spring and 2. needing A LOT more seasoning after pitcher’s figured him out in 2006 and made him look like Adrian Beltre with a good ankle, Kemp displayed that glimpse of power towards the final week of Spring Training. Once remembering that 2/3 of their outfield was named Luis Gonzalez and Juan Pierre, his power was good enough to land him in what was expected to be a platoon with Andre Ethier.

Well… at least, until…

matt-kemp.jpg

“PLEASE DON’T LET ME HIT THE WALL, PLEASE…

(crash)

OH SHIT, GRADY WILL NEVER GIVE ME MY JOB BACK!”

Missing time, Kemp lost his roster spot and got sent back to Triple-A, before coming back in June. But once he came back, Kemp quickly established himself as one of the go to guys on the team, hitting a cool .383/.420/.468 during that month. In fact, after suffering the Ethier treatment of having to hit low in the order – and that’s IF he played! – he eventually moved up to the 3rd spot, which actually wasn’t a bad idea considering he would be far more protected with Kent after him, although terrible for it made me really mix up their names a lot during broadcasts. Since Kemp only racked up 292 AB’s, let’s see how he did relative to his teammates with at least 250 AB’s. Based on that, Kemp ranked 1st in BA, 4th in OBP, VORP, 2nd in SLG%, OPS, OPS+ It’s very safe to say that, once players like Ethier, and even to an extent Martin, started to fade a bit towards the end, it was Kemp and Loney (and Kent) who mostly carried the team’s offense. The beauty of having Kemp in the lineup was also the fact that he was able to provide the team with another power threat, something very, very rare in those parts.

Unless you work for the L.A. Times, it’s just really hard not to be amazed by Matt Kemp. He is a five tool player that has superstar all over him. Really, when he hits, he makes it look so effortless and he has incredible power. One thing that also really surprises me about Kemp, due to his size, has always been his speed; the dude can fly and is without a doubt one of the fastest players on the team.

So after all these glowing compliments, why didn’t he get the A+ and just a measely A? You can probably blame James Loney and Russell Martin for that. After seeing them come up looking so polished, as if they had been playing for years, that’s the standard when I think of A+ grades. Kemp, on the other hand, despite his scary talent – he probably has the highest ceiling out of everyone – still has a ways to go. Defensively, he subscribes to the Jason Repko philosophy of fielding and takes terrible routes to balls, and offensively, while he can crush a mistake, still can be easily fooled with breaking balls, though he has improved on that a lot from 2006. Finally, yes, there is the base running, which became flat out comical at times with getting thrown out and running through stop signs. I was always waiting for Donnelly to go out there with a “STOP!” or “GO!” sign that he would hold up whenever Kemp would be running towards third… or maybe even a signal. Because of these things, he still has some growing up to do, but it’s also important to remember that he has been playing professional baseball for less than five years. In many ways, with his hitting prowlness and issues defensively and on the basepaths, he does remind me of a young Manny Ramirez.

2008 Outlook: On a hit to the gap, Kemp runs through the sign at third only to get clotheslined and piledrived by Larry Bowa.

O.K., seriously… if Kemp gets the rightful starting position at right field, I can only expect him to further grow as a player. With regular playing time, I could easily envision somewhere around a .290/.360/.500 line, maybe with around 20-25 HR’s or so. And if he can put up anything remotely close to that, that’s all the more reason not to trade him. It makes no sense to trade his production, as well as the production of several other kids to Florida for Miguel Cabrera… or anyone. Yeah, he’d be AWESOME at the plate, and he’d net you 30-35 HR’s and a lot of other Godly numbers, but if the rumors of Kemp, Loney, Billingsley and Kershaw are the price, then you just traded away two hitters with the potential to hit at least 20-25 HR’s a piece as early as next season. Not to mention that you now have holes at other positions. The costs simply outweigh the benefits (and outweighing Miguel Cabrera is not an easy thing to do) and if the rapid progression of Kemp from 2006 to 2007 is any indication for next year… then 2008 should be a really fun year.

- Vin vinscully-face.jpg

MSTI.com's 2007 In Review: Left Field

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Right! Let’s get back on this, because the Rockies are sure doing a good job of making sure 2007 is getting over with ASAP.

luis-gonzalez.jpgLuis Gonzalez = B-

(.278/.359/.433, 15 HR’s, 68 RBI’s)

2007 recap: I know, I know… this grade might surprise you, but take a look at these numbers and it might make more sense:

Luis Gonzalez’s OPS Since 2001:

2001 (age 33-34): 1.117
2002 (34-35): .896
2003 (35-36): .934
2004 (36-37): .866
2005 (37-38): .825
2006 (38-39): .796
2007 (39-40): .792

O.K., so why do these past numbers matter? Because notice the downward trend in OPS (and, for the record, I only used OPS as a quick and dirty check; other numbers show the same trend) and the upward trend in age. Should we really have expected a man turning 40 to put up numbers close to his prime? Not unless you’re Ned Colletti! But the point is, based on his decline and shoulder surgery in 2004, he pretty much met “expectations” and, you know what? He didn’t have THAT bad of a year.

Let’s not forget the circumstances under which we signed Gonzo in the first place. Remember, going into 2007, the OF was in shambles. Ethier was in no way a sure thing; he’d taken a nosedive at the end of 2006. We all loved Kemp’s potential, but most fans agreed he could probably use some seasoning in the minors for a bit first. We needed Gonzo to come in and play some LF unless and until the following two things happened:

1) Ethier and Kemp proved they were ready to each handle a corner position.
2) Gonzo proved he was cooked.

And what can I say? Things worked out pretty perfectly. Ethier and Kemp both proved they could play every day, but it took nearly half the season to get to that point, thanks to Ethier’s slow start and Kemp’s losing battle with the right field wall. Plus, Gonzo was actually one of the team’s most dependable hitters in the first half when he put up a line of .294/.384/.471. He hit 11 HR’s, got on base and, outside of his defense, I couldn’t really complain, he exceeded expectations. I could go into more detail about his first half, but it was summed it up pretty well in the “Real Men Of Genius” article back in July.

However, in the true bipolar fashion that is the Dodgers, he just completely took a shit in the second half.

.251/.316/.368. Only 5 HR and 27 RBI, and a 171-point drop in his OPS. With his usual “stellar” outfield defense.

For an over-40 vet, that’s a pretty clear sign he’s past his expiration date, right? Yeah, he was pretty bad in the second half. Really bad. But I sort of felt like once Kemp and Ethier proved themselves, it wouldn’t really matter what Gonzo did, because he’d be pushed aside unless he was still lighting it up. Of course, I failed to take into account the fact we have a manager with the IQ of a peanut.

Oh, and there was there was the whole petty jackassitude (yep, still making up words) a few weeks ago bashing the kids, but which did lead to this great quote: “They were hitting .340, .350. Loney, Kemp, Martin, Ethier – they’re all great players, but we weren’t winning games. They’re getting three and four hits, but you’re not winning games.” Yes. That was EXACTLY THE PROBLEM! Damn those kids for getting three and four hits a game! They should have taken a nosedive just like you did!

So there you have it. A B-. He did was he was supposed to do for the length of time we needed him to do so, and it wasn’t his fault he kept getting playing time when he was long past his usefulness – that we can thank Griddle for.

2008 outlook: Well, you know the saying. You don’t have to go home, but you can’t stay here. Which he won’t be. Adios, Luis!

- Mike Scioscia’s tragic illness msti-face.jpg

MSTI.com's 2007 in Review: Center Field

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Time for the outfield! We’re going a little bit out of order on this one and starting right in the middle, and Vin will be back to recap the corners this week.

pierre1small.jpg

So I get to do center field? Sweet! I almost don’t know where to start on this one, so strap in – this one might get long, kids. Let’s preface this by saying that from absolutely everything I’ve heard, Juan Pierre is a fantastic human being and an exceptional teammate. He’s the first one there in the morning, and the last one to leave – no one outworks him. He kisses babies and rainbows and then the babies love rainbows and then the sun smiles and drops sugar cubes on everyone, and the sugar cubes turn into kittens who then frolic in dandelions. Juan Pierre is Mother Teresa reincarnate.

Juan Pierre (D-)
(.293/.331/.353 0hr 41rbi 64sb 15cs)

A D-? Oh, that’s right. We’re not paying him to be goddamn Bono. We’re paying him to do one thing: play baseball. And despite all of his superb human attributes, there’s one thing he’s really not all that good at: playing baseball.

Let me count the ways…

Juan Pierre can’t hit. Well, let me rephrase that. He can get hits. He finished just short of 200 hits (196) and just short of .300 (.293). Here’s the problem with that, folks. Getting a lot of hits just isn’t as impressive when you step to the plate 729 times, 3rd in the NL. Hitting .293 is all well and good, except it illustrates the fundamental problem with batting average: it doesn’t tell you just how empty that .293 is.

What’s really important for a player like Juan Pierre, above all else, is on-base percentage. You don’t expect or require a lot of power from your top of the order guys, and that’s fine (though he is of course, far below average at that too.) What you need is for him to just get on base. He’s good at one thing, and that’s running. It’s really really hard to run around the bases and cause havoc from the dugout.

It’s not really important how he gets on base – having a mixture of walks and hits would be the best, but honestly I don’t care. Just that he gets on. Basically his goal at the plate should be, “get on base through any means possible. Don’t make outs.” pierre2small.jpg

Juan Pierre, 2007 – 519 outs made, 3rd in NL

Crap. Well, it’s not like we should have seen that coming.

Juan Pierre, 2006 – 532 outs made, 1st in NL

Blerg. My mind grapes hurt. Seriously, by just about every meaningful statistical measure you can think of, Juan Pierre is a terrible offensive player:

EQA: .249 (league average is .260), 21st among MLB CF
OPS+: 76 (league average is 100)
VORP: 16.2 – just behind two Rockies CF’s, Taveras and Spilborghs

And just to throw in a new super-fancy stat that I just now learned:

MLV (basically, how many extra runs over the course of a season a player would add if you had a lineup of completely league-average players. For example, Curtis Granderson was the best MLB CF, adding 40.2 runs over average.) Pierre: -13.5. We would have been better off if he never showed up to the park; this ranks JP 65th of 70 MLB CF’s this season, by the way.

Just because I can’t overstate this enough – his OBP was .331. The National League’s average OBP was .334. He is paid to get on base, he is paid a lot of money to get on base. This is what we needed him to do more than just about anything. And he is worse than your average player. And we gave him 5 years and $44 million for the pleasure.

Juan Pierre can’t field. Fielding stats are notoriously wonky and hard to evaluate. You can’t really read a fielding stat and say “this player is good or bad” the way you can with hitting stats. But what you can do with them is compare players to other guys at the same position and at least get an idea of who’s showing up. In 2007, there were 18 MLB CF’s with enough at-bats to qualify for the batting title (a good way of sorting everyday players from part timers).

18. Remember that.pierre3small.jpg

Juan Pierre, 2007 fielding stats:
Fielding %: 15th
Range factor: 17th, next to goddamn last
Zone rating: 11th

Great. So now not only can’t he hit, he’s mediocre to abysmal at fielding, too. Worse, he’s sort of getting off easy here, because these stats measure how well he fields his position, but it doesn’t take into account throwing arm. In fact, I don’t know of any stat that does, which is good news for Mr. Pierre, because this is by far his worst attribute. I can’t tell you how many singles got turned into doubles because absolutely no one is afraid of his arm – or the fact that guys would tag up from 1st base on sacrifice flies. Seriously, that doesn’t happen. Except to him. You don’t need me to tell you this; if you watched any Dodger games this year you’d know that he can barely outthrow Steven Hawking right now. It’s gotten to the point where just one year into his five year deal, there’s already rumors of him moving to LF to hide the arm a bit.

Juan Pierre is the epitome of bad timing. Okay, this one I can’t kill JP on. He got offered an absurdly rich deal, and he took it, same as the rest of us would. This is squarely pointed at Ned Colletti, and while it may belong more in his review later, I’m writing it now anyway – we did not need to sign Juan Pierre to a 5 year deal last year! If you remember, Kenny Lofton was the Blue’s main CF in 2006, and while he wasn’t superb, he did pretty well – outperforming Pierre in most important categories, anyway. So when Lofton’s one year deal ended, the Dodgers had 3 choices to man CF:

1) sign one of the only two wildly overpriced mediocre CFs onpierresd8.jpg the market last year, JP or Gary Matthews, Jr., to longterm deals out of desperation.
2) resign Lofton or someone similar to a one year deal; see if Matt Kemp could take the job by year’s end
3) resign Lofton or someone similar to a one year deal; wait for 2007-08 free agency class which includes a rich crop of CFs – Torii Hunter, Andruw Jones, Aaron Rowand, Ichiro (at the time, he was coming up on free agency), Mike Cameron

#2 is the route I’d have gone, and considering how Kemp turned out, we might well have been set there cheaply for years to come. #3′s very reasonable too and shows some nice foresight.

Oh, but of course.. we got the absolute worst option of the three, and we’re paying for it for years to come. Superb.

And might I add, Juan Pierre turned 30 this past August, which means his Opening Day ages for the remaining 4 years on his deal will be 30-31-32-33. Juan Pierre has exactly one above-average attribute, and it just so happens to be almost universally the first thing that goes downhill when a player hits 30: speed. What happens when he loses a step and all of a sudden he’s not beating out as many infield hits or stealing as many bases? We’re just on the tip of the iceberg here, people.

- Mike Scioscia’s tragic illness msti-face.jpg

MSTI.com’s 2007 In Review: Third Base

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Third base? Hoo boy, did I draw the short straw.

Oh, and just so we’re clear what we’re dealing with at this position, here:

Dodger Third Basemen, 2005-07 (3 seasons since Beltre left):hotcorner.jpg
1. Mike Edwards
2. Oscar Robles
3. Antonio Perez
4. Olmedo Saenz
5. Nori Nakamura
6. Jose Valentin
7. Willy Aybar
8. Cesar Izturis
9. Wilson Betemit
10. Bill Mueller
11. Julio Lugo
12. Ramon Martinez
13. Joel Guzman
14. Wilson Valdez
15. Tony Abreu
16. Shea Hillenbrand
17. Nomar Garciaparra
18. Andy LaRoche

These are not the All-Stars you are looking for.

Lightning round!

Nomar Garciaparra (C)
(in 159 AB as 3B: .302/.349/.447 6hr 21rbi)

2007 Recap: Vin did a really good job explaining just how bad Nomar was on the whole this year, so I won’t reiterate all of what he said. Rather, I’ll just focus on his time at 3B.. and I’m shocked to report that he wasn’t completely awful. Part of it was he was simply benefiting the club by not nomar_iymgkjnc_1.jpgblocking His Holyness Pope Loney IV anymore, but the numbers above? Not completely bad. Unfortunately for him, it was completely overshadowed by his mind-blowingly bad numbers at 1B. (I hear he was outslugged for most of the year by Juan Pierre? Vin? What?)

2008 Outlook: Gracefully walks away from the game to devote more time to his family, after fulfilling his dream of playing for his childhood team. Oh, we gave him a two year deal? Scratch that.

2008 Outlook: Opens the season as the starting 3B, hits .280/.280/.280 for 3 solid months, while Griddle keeps Andy LaRoche nailed to the bench. Misses 5 weeks with a hangnail and a yeast infection, while LaRoche crushes ball after ball. Returns to claim starting 3B job anyway. Which will at least have the silver lining of allowing me to constantly use this picture, which I love more than life itself.

Wilson Betemit (C-)
(.231/.359/.474 10hr 26rbi w/Dodgers)

2007 Recap: Oh, Meat. Things just didn’t turn out for us like we’d hoped. You are an enigma, covered in a question, wrapped in a burrito, smothered in secret sauce. Remember back in July, when we said you should be the starting 3B? (Side note: love that this blog has now been going long enough that I can reference my own posts from the past). Why did you toy with us so? First it was the 6 hits and .125 average as the starting 3B in April. Then it was the .725 SLG in May, by meat.jpgwhich point you’d lost your job to Andy LaRoche. Then there was the sudden spurt of being the world’s greatest pinch hitter (3 HR and a 1.102 OPS). All the while, you tantalized us with your quality OBP (.359), impressive power (.454 SLG), and surprisingly solid defense, while simultaneously frustrating us and infurating the common fan with your inability to keep your batting average over .230. And then you were gone; traded away for Scott Proctor, just in time to have the rest of the 3B corps get hurt and force us into watching Shea Hillenbrand for a month.

Oh, Meat. What could have been, if only you could have just gotten a few extra singles each month to appease the masses’ thirst for batting average.

2008 Outlook: Pfft, who cares. He’s a Yankee. He’s dead to us now.

Tony Abreu (B+)
(.279/.301/.404 2hr 17rbi)

2007 Recap: That’s right, Abreu actually started twice as many games at 3B as he did at 2B, thanks to the revolving door of tears at the hot corner. Remember what your thoughts were on Abreu before 2007? No, you don’t. Because you didn’t have any, until he completely dominated Spring Training. Then again, so did Larry Bigbie, and who remembers him at all? Abreu crushedph_473234.jpg the Grapefruit league with a .566 SLG (!), forcing his way into the infield picture, and might have actually made the opening day roster if not for a shoulder injury at the end of camp. You know what? He made up in May, and was actually pretty damned good, especially for a 22-year-old who wasn’t considered in our top tier of prospects and was continually jerked around in the bigs in terms of playing time and being out of position.

Sure, he was at times brutal at third base. A .947 fielding % sure isn’t good. However, I can’t even kill him too much for that, because I can’t find any record of him ever having played 3B in a professional game before 2007, just 2B and SS. At his natural position of 2B, he was excellent defensively, not making a single miscue all year – which makes him defensively somewhere in the neighborhood of 100,000 suns hotter than Jeff Kent.

2008 Outlook: Well, this is going to depend almost entirely on what Porn Stache decides. If he retires, I don’t neccessarily have a problem with letting Abreu and Chin-Lung Hu fight it out for 2B, knowing that either way we’ll have a fantastic young defender with a bit of offensive juice. If Kent comes back, as I assume is likely, then we’ve got ourselves a pretty damned good middle infield backup/defensive substitute.

Andy LaRoche (inc.)
(.226/.365/.312 1hr 10rbi)

2007 Recap: Only got 93 at-bats, so he just sneaks in under the “incomplete” banner here, plus he retains his rookie eligibility for next year. Sort of hard to judge Andy, I think. He was practically the starting 3B for most of May and didn’t really hit much (6 singles and 2 doubles in 38 at-bats), but he showed a remarkable patience at the plate (15 walks, getting him a ph_451188.jpgphenomenal .436 OBP). Most rookies come up eager to impress and hack away. But LaRoche’s advanced mastery of the strike zone earned him… a trip right back to Vegas until September. Where, by the way, his .988 OPS said, “what’s up.” He didn’t really hit all that much when he came back, either – as late as Sept. 19, he was hitting .193. But when the wheels finally came off the season, he actually got a real chance to play. From Sept. 20, he started all but one game the rest of the season, and you know what? Signs of improvement. 10 hits in 36 at-bats, 1st major league home run – though the strikeouts were a little worrisome. Also, “a bad back” isn’t exactly a great diagnosis for someone his age, so it’s certainly something to keep an eye out for.

I think a lot of it is Dodger fans have been unbelievably spoiled by the almost immediate success of Martin, Loney, Broxton, etc etc. So when LaRoche “struggled”, by comparison, he looked bad. 93 at-bats is really enough to judge one of our highest-rated prospects? Uh, I think not.

2008 Recap: Either A) traded as part of a deal for a real 3B; B) sitting behind Nomar or stuck back in Vegas; or C) playing every day for the Dodgers. I’ll rank my choices as C, A, me struck by lightning, me in a three-way with Mike Tyson and Secretariat, B.

Shea Hillenbrand (inc.)
(.243/.257/.343 1hr 9rbi w/Dodgers)

2007 Recap: Well, here’s an interesting one. Hillenbrand was given way too much money to sign with the Angels, and delivered so well on his contract that they flat-out cut him in June, thanks to a phenomenal 61 OPS+. He catches on with San Diego’s AAA affiliate, and was so good that they.. flat-out cut him in August. You’d think that’s the death knell for an over-30 player’s career,shea.jpg right? Not when the 2007 Dodgers are involved! Thanks to Nomar, Abreu, and LaRoche all going on the DL and Betemit getting traded to the Bronx, Hillenbrand was miraculously made the starting third baseman of a team in the middle of a pennant push. And to the surprise of no one, he was terrible! The stats quoted above are Dodgers-only, and they add up to an OPS+ of.. 52! Which can also be read as “even worse than the stats that caused the Angels to eat his contract and cut him” or “52% as good as the rest of the National League.” Seriously. He was half as good as average. Half. He played nearly every day from Aug. 13 to Sept. 1… and amusingly, got the grand total of one at-bat from Sept. 9 on.

On the other hand, if you’d told me near the end of August that the Dodgers clubhouse would devolve into selfish infighting and absurd controversy and that Shea Hillenbrand wasn’t prominently involved? Well, let’s just say I’d owe you a Coke.

2008 Outlook: 2008? I could care less if Shea Hillenbrand is running a child porn cocaine arson dogfighting ring or sailing the high seas as a pirate, as long as he’s nowhere near being employed by the Dodgers.

- Mike Scioscia’s tragic illness msti-face.jpg