Is Dee Gordon Ready? Yasiel Puig Sure Isn’t

gordon_sanfran_2013-05-04It isn’t the first time that Chad Moriyama pumps out an idea before I can get around to it, and it won’t be the last. Dee Gordon is absolutely everything we thought he would be, and I mean as both a positive and a negative. He’s showing patience. He’s making mistakes on the basepaths. He’s scoring runs that potentially no other player in the game could manage. He’s getting to balls; he’s bobbling balls. He’s everything, and he’s nothing.

Chad goes into this in great detail, complete with GIFs, and it’s more than worth your time to read through. I couldn’t agree more with his conclusion:

Flaws and all, fans understandably tend to side with Dee because of the “wow” moments he brings to the table, stuff that guys with less raw talent simply can’t even fathom doing. Dee is made for mind-blowing bursts of speed and flair that lead to extreme excitement, but he often follows that with the lulls of fundamental inadequacy and lack of baseball skills, which is the part people tend to gloss over too easily.

My point? For all that highs and lows so far, his WAR on the year is 0. There’s probably not much more fitting a grade than that.

Now, since he’s getting time at short rather than the decidedly sub-replacement Justin Sellers & Luis Cruz, perhaps that’s good enough. (And forgive me for actually using WAR at this ridiculously early point in the season, but it’s merely part of the larger point.) But I really do think Chad is dead-on there. When Gordon makes a jaw-dropping play that no one else can do, that’s the highlight you remember; that’s what sticks with you when you wonder why he’s not treated as a star. That’s always going to stand out over the bobbled ball that costs a double play and may not even lead directly to a run, but it shouldn’t; baseball doesn’t work that way.

So far, so good for Gordon, because even being a replacement-level player is a big upgrade over the mess we saw last year, and I can’t lie that the fan in me loves watching the great things he can do. Still, if he’s going to prove that he deserves to stick around and possibly even shift Hanley Ramirez to third at some point, the boring, unexciting everyday skills have to improve.

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As for the other player — not you, Scott Van Slyke — that fans have been demanding to see? I’ve been saying all along that Yasiel Puig isn’t ready, and today we have further evidence. Bill Shaikin alerted us the other day that Puig tossed his bat after getting called out on strikes, and I hardly have to remind you that bat-tossing has been an ongoing issue for him.

Shaikin came upon that report based on a tweet from Mike Newman of FanGraphs and the excellent RotoScouting.com — subscribe now, because he’s based near Chattanooga and sees & reports on tons of Lookouts games — and Newman’s been kind enough to provide video of yet another Puig incident.

I know that many people say, “so what? As long as he’s hitting, that’s all that matters.” But it’s really not. These continued antics will either lead to a fastball to the teeth or him getting ejected 40% of the time, and trust me when I say that the front office is keenly aware of this kind of behavior. (He’s also in a bit of a slump, hitting .205/.271/.455 over his last ten games.) As we’ve discussed, “being ready” isn’t just about hitting the curveball.

Dodgers 2, Brewers 0: The Stars Lead the Way

carl_crawford_openingday2013The heroes may have been few for the Dodgers today — Clayton Kershaw, Carl Crawford, & Nick Punto (!) were really the only ones who did anything of note — but sometimes, you just need the big dogs to take care of business.

I’d say Kershaw & Crawford did that and then some, wouldn’t you agree? Kershaw struck out 12 hitters for the fifth time in his career (including his career-high of 13, back in 2009), and did so without a single walk. That 12/0 combination is something he’s done just once before, in 2010 against the Cubs. Only one Brewer reached third base, and at one point Kershaw retired 18 consecutive batters. For any other pitcher, this would be a phenomenal achievement. For Kershaw, it’s almost par for the course. He’s. Just. That. Good.

Of course, were it not for Crawford’s two longballs, we might be sadly watching Kershaw walk home with another no-decision, because the offense was stagnant once again. Other than Punto, who had three singles, and Juan Uribe, who had one, no other Dodger reached base against Kyle Lohse and Mike Gonzalez.

For Crawford, his two homers doubled his season total and put him into the team lead with four; it was also the sixth time in his career he had two homers in one game.

With the win, the Dodgers even their record at 12-12 headed into what’s suddenly an interesting series against Colorado, who called up top third base prospect Nolan Arenado to make his debut today.

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Yes, Yasiel Puig was arrested early this morning in Tennessee, and no, that’s not great. The best I can say here is that at least reckless driving isn’t drunk driving, but even that’s small comfort. As you remember, it became a fun sport for some to insist that he “was ready” and that the Dodgers were foolish for not bringing him up; well, here’s evidence that he’s not ready. Being ready for the big leagues means more than just learning how to hit a curveball, and this isn’t the first we’ve heard about some attitude issues here. Here’s to hoping Puig learned a lesson today.

 

Is It Time For Yasiel Puig Now? How About Now? (No.)

yasiel_puig_firstbase_springOn Tuesday, it was “call up Dee Gordon!” Yesterday, it was “why is an expensive team playing poorly?” Today — and for the last two weeks, really — the cry from frustrated Dodger fans has been, “call up Yasiel Puig now!” No, really.

I get it, of course. Puig’s spring training performance was legendary and he’s hitting .341/.396/.591 with two homers through a dozen games with Double-A Chattanooga. We all can’t wait to see him in the bigs, and that’s fine.

But good lord, people. Let’s apply the brakes and remember these three truisms:

1) Puig, gawdy stats aside, isn’t ready. (More on that in a second.)
2) Carl Crawford & Andre Ethier are absolutely not the problems right now
3) Even if you did want to bench Matt Kemp — which, I’m floored we’re even discussing this — Puig is almost certainly a corner outfielder in the bigs, not a center fielder.

(Yes, people like to point out that keeping him down also limits service time, but I don’t believe that’s a factor here.)

It’s number one that’s the main issue, because people look at that gaudy stat line and the video we all saw of him destroying a baseball a few days ago, and it’s difficult to understand how he “isn’t ready”. But we should really know by now that even if you could glean anything useful from 12 Double-A games — you can’t — that scouting off a stat line is an exercise in futility. You need more than that; you need a scout’s eye.

Fortunately for us, we have two recent reports doing just that, and the takeaways are the same — Puig is an immensely talented player with a bright future, but one who needs more seasoning.

At FanGraphs last week, Mike Newman took in a Lookouts game and filed a full report, with video, on both Puig and Zach Lee. It’s well worth a full look, but the high-level takeaways are there’s a lot of good…

In his next at bat, Puig fisted a broken bat single to center field off of another heater. Once again, what would have been a routine out off the bat of most hitters was a hit for the Cuban prospect. Other than Giancarlo Stanton and Bryce Harper, I’ve never scouted a stronger human being on a minor league baseball field.

…along with considerable rough edges.

Throughout the game, Puig flailed wildly at sliders which led to an early strikeout, as well as a two-strike count in his second plate appearance. Eventually, he gave up on the pitch and sat “dead red” fastball.

Defensively, Puig was relatively untested, although he did field a double in right-center field only to miss the cut off entirely. The throw was a rainbow which landed near the grass cut out behind shortstop, allowing runners to advance an extra base.

This morning, we have an even newer report from Chris Blessing of Bullpen Banter, and the results are the same. There’s a whole lot to like…

Only a handful of elite power hitters come to mind that have the ability to barrel a baseball with as much force as Yasiel Puig. Other than Giancarlo Stanton and Mike Piazza, I haven’t seen a minor league player with as much natural power as Puig.

…and some real concerns about plate discipline.

Puig is struggling with recognizing the spin on a breaking ball, causing him to either flail at pitches away or turn away from breaking pitches that start in. When a pitcher executes the latter, Puig usually has a word with the umpire about the validity of the strike call.

It’s that last part that concerns me, because we’ve already heard that Puig was removed from a game once due to a still unexplained “mental mistake”, and I’ve heard some reports that Dodger management is really less than thrilled about his over-the-top bat flips after each of his two homers, as you can see in the videos.

That’s nothing that’s too unexpected from a player who gets called “raw” even in the most favorable reports, but it’s also the kind of thing that requires time to smooth out. Most importantly, he needs to improve his pitch recognition, because big league arms will eat him alive as soon as they learn to stop throwing him fastballs.

If Puig came up right now, I’ll tell you how it would go. Pitchers would attempt to challenge him, and he’d make them pay in a hot early start. Eventually, he’ll get figured out and strike out on endless low-and-away breaking stuff, likely while making silly mental mistakes on the bases and outfield that overshadow his massive talent. After a few weeks of that, he’d end up in the minors.

If you think I’m just making up stories, then realize that what I’m actually describing is Kemp’s experience as a raw 21-year-old in 2006. The talent is there for Puig, no one doubts that. But the opportunity on the roster is not, and his readiness for the bigs is not. We should all have learned from Gordon’s experience in 2011 — and what we’re seeing with Aaron Hicks & Jackie Bradley this year — that rushing a player just because you want to see them almost invariably ends poorly.

Fortunately, I don’t really believe Dodger management has plans to rush him up, and that’s for the best. Patience is tough in these trying times, I understand. But we’ll all be happy it played out this way with Puig later.

Yasiel Puig, Destroying A Baseball on Video

puig_chattanooga_homerLest you think that the success of Carl Crawford has caused us to forget about Yasiel Puig, here’s video of him absolutely destroying a ball off of A.J. Morris of the Cubs’ Double-A affiliate in Tennessee the other night. Seriously, look where that ball lands.

Puig entered play today hitting .414/.469/.759 for the Lookouts, but an 0-4 with three whiffs today dropped that batting average all the way down to .364. 0-4 with three whiffs? Wait, maybe he really is ready for the Dodgers.

Maybe Yasiel Puig Doesn’t Walk Because He’s Unaware of What a Walk Is

yasiel_puig_firstbase_springESPN’s Jim Bowden listed Yasiel Puig as one of “six players who wowed” him this spring. But Bowden may have stumbled upon something wonderful:

However, I also saw the “raw” player. His secondary leads more resembled those of a high school player, and there were a couple of instances where he was on first base when a batter drew a walk and he didn’t seem to know what to do.

So that’s why Puig didn’t draw a single walk in 59 plate appearances this spring. No one ever told him what one was! Come on, coaching staff.

Dodgers
Mariners
2B
Amezaga
CF
Gutierrez
RF
Herrera
RF
Saunders
3B
Hairston
1B
Morales
1B
Van Slyke
DH
Morse
C
Federowicz
C
Montero
CF
Buss
LF
Bay
RF
Castellanos
2B
Ackley
SS
Sellers
C
Andino
P
Kershaw
3B
Miller

The Dodgers finish off their Cactus League schedule this afternoon by visiting the Mariners, and I use the term “Dodgers” loosely here. Check out that lineup, won’t you? It’s like the dark days of last June all over again, right down to Scott Van Slyke hitting cleanup. I have no idea how Jerry Hairston managed to get himself stuck in that lineup; all I can figure is that he hadn’t spent that much time at third base this spring and wanted every opportunity he could get in the wake of Hanley Ramirez‘ injury.

The new name you see there in center field is Nick Buss, an 8th round pick out of USC in 2008 who turned 26 in December. In 132 games for the Double-A Lookouts last year, he hit .272/.328/.411 with 8 homers. Brandon Lennox ranked him #88 in the organization earlier this month at TrueBlueLA, and with Puig and Joc Pederson set to join the Chattanooga outfield, Buss’ opportunities may be limited.

It’s almost too bad that the Dodgers haven’t sent out a better lineup, because Clayton Kershaw vs Felix Hernandez would otherwise be a fantastic matchup.On the other hand, the game won’t be televised, so we won’t miss much.

That’s actually the last time we’ll have to worry about whether the Dodgers are on television for quite some time. While tomorrow’s exhibition in Rancho Cucamonga (with Chris Reed on the mound for the Quakes) won’t be on the air, each of the remaining “regular” spring games against the Angels will, and then of course the season starts on Monday.