Projecting the Dodgers’ Minor-League Rosters: Double-A & Triple-A

Editor’s note: Chris Jackson rounds off the minor league roster projections with Chattanooga & Albuquerque. Also, don’t forget to enter the Opening Day roster contest — open through 9pm PT tonight!

Van Slyke is one of nine outfielders who will vie for an Isotopes roster spot this spring. (Photo courtesy of the Isotopes)

Scott Van Slyke is one of nine outfielders who will vie for an Isotopes roster spot this spring. (Photo courtesy of the Isotopes)

Chattanooga Lookouts (Double-A Southern League)

Starting rotation: Onelki Garcia, Zach Lee, Aaron Miller, Rob Rasmussen, Chris Reed

All prospects, all the time, in east Tennessee this year! Garcia has the most pure stuff, but the least experience. Lee and Reed will hope their potential matches the results this season. Miller will have to fight to keep his starting spot after a middling season. Rasmussen will get some attention as the new guy in the organization.

Bulllpen: Geison Aguasviva, Steve Ames, Kelvin De La Cruz, Eric Eadington, Jordan Roberts, Andres Santiago, Chris Withrow

That is a lot of lefties, but it is hard to figure out where else to put them. De la Cruz is not a LOOGY and will give them a second long reliever to go with Santiago, who could start if Miller struggles. Aguasviva could fight his way to Albuquerque. Roberts is 27, so if he can’t stick here, his time with the Dodgers may be done. Ames and Eadington figure to share the closing job, though Withrow could see saves, too, now that the Dodgers have committed to him as a reliever. Just missed: Javier Solano

Catchers: Gorman Erickson, Christopher O’Brien

Erickson will be looking for some redemption after a lousy 2012. O’Brien was decent enough at Rancho to merit the promotion.

Infielders: 1B–J.T. Wise, 2B–Rafael Ynoa, SS–Alexis Aguilar, 3B–C.J. Retherford, UTIL–Joe Becker, Omar Luna

Wise and Ynoa have played well enough to earn promotions, but they are blocked at Albuquerque barring some trades. Aguilar is the pick I am least confident in; it could be a half-dozen other guys. In other words, please, Dodgers, sign some random Cuban defector shortstop to spare the poor fans in Chattanooga watching a guy with a career .662 OPS. Retherford had a big year at Rancho, but struggled with the Lookouts, so he will return here. Luna and Becker didn’t play a lot of shortstop last year, but they sure could this year. Just missed: Chris Jacobs 1B, Elevys Gonzalez 3B/2B, Miguel Rojas 2B/SS

Outfielders: LF–Yasiel Puig, CF–Joc Pederson, RF–Blake Smith, OF–Nick Buss, Bobby Coyle

Puig and Pederson are premium prospects. They both figure to play all three outfield spots here. Smith deserves to move up, and he certainly could, but for now I have him starting with the Lookouts. Buss and the talented but oft-injured Coyle return. Just missed: Kyle Russell

Final analysis: If some of the pitchers can translate their potential into results, then this team could be the favorite to win the Southern League. The rotation is six-deep and strong, while the bullpen is strong from both sides of the mound. The outfield should carry the offense, with shortstop being the only real concern on the infield. The Lookouts should be fun to watch this season.

Albuquerque Isotopes (Triple-A Pacific Coast League)

Starting rotation: Fabio Castro, Stephen Fife, Matt Magill, Matt Palmer, Mario Santiago

Magill is the legit prospect here. Fife returns and will be the first called up in the event of an injury to a starter in L.A. Palmer can chew up innings, but that is it. Castro was terrible last year with the A’s organization and might not last long in Albuquerque. Santiago is a gamble, with the Dodgers/Isotopes hoping he can carry over the success he found in Korea last year with the SK Wyverns.

Bullpen: Michael Antonini, Blake Johnson, Hector Nelo, Red Patterson, Paco Rodriguez, Cole St. Clair, Shawn Tolleson, Josh Wall

Antonini’s health is in question, so he might not crack this group. Rodriguez and Tolleson both deserve to pitch in the Majors, but I have Javy Guerra and Ted Lilly taking the last two spots. Johnson and St. Clair return in the long relief roles. Wall should close again. Patterson moves up, but it could easily be Ames instead. Nelo, a minor-league Rule 5 pick, gets the nod over the plethora of Triple-A vets signed this off-season. I am also betting that the veteran trio of Kevin Gregg, Mark Lowe, and Peter Moylan will opt out at the end of the spring. Just missed: Juan Abreu, Victor Garate, Gregory Infante, Wilmin Rodriguez, Luis Vasquez

Catchers: Jesus Flores, Matt Wallach

Flores could easily be subbed out for Federowicz if the Dodgers opt to have the prospect play every day and the veteran back up A.J. Ellis. Consider them interchangeable. Wallach has never hit, but he plays good defense and seems like a safe bet to the backup. Just missed: Eliezer Alfonzo, Wilkin Castillo, Ramon Castro

Infielders: 1B–Nick Evans, 2B–Elian Herrera, SS–Dee Gordon, 3B–Dallas McPherson, UTIL–Rusty Ryal, Justin Sellers

Evans always earned rave reviews for his defense, which could be a big help for Gordon’s wild throws (remember how Mark Teixeira made Derek Jeter look better back in 2009?). While it can be speculated that Gordon could or should be in the Majors, until he proves otherwise, I have him here. Sellers is another guy most people are counting out, but the Dodgers have not dumped him yet, even after his arrest in Sacramento. Herrera can, and likely will, play everywhere, but he should play almost every day. McPherson will DH against AL teams, since his back is unlikely to hold up for 144 games. Ryal gets the nod because the Isotopes need the left-handed bat. Just missed: Alfredo Amezaga UTIL, Brian Barden 3B, Ozzie Martinez SS

Outfielders: LF–Scott Van Slyke, CF–Tony Gwynn Jr., RF–Alex Castellanos, OF–Jeremy Moore

Unless Castellanos returns to the infield, this outfield is tough to figure out. Both he, Moore and Van Slyke are all right-handed hitters, so it would make a lot of sense for someone like Smith (who hits left-handed) to move up from Chattanooga. Unless the Isotopes only carry seven relievers (which, fat chance), it won’t happen unless the Dodgers move Van Slyke in a trade. Moore gets that backup spot because he can play all three positions and because the Dodgers obviously think very highly of him as he was the only free agent to participate in their prospect minicamp last month. Just missed: Matt Angle, Brian Cavazos-Galvez

Final analysis: This team does not look as talented as last year’s playoff squad, at least on paper. The rotation looks awfully suspect behind Fife and Magill. The bullpen could be good, at least. The lineup lacks left-handed bats, but should be able to score enough runs to keep games interesting. If the Dodgers can’t find any additional starting pitchers, however, it could be a long summer of 12-10 scores in Albuquerque, which this reporter is not very interested in watching anymore.

Dodgers Depth Chart Analysis: All is Right Among the Right-Handers

Editor’s note: Chris Jackson moves on to the righty pitching in the organization, which is probably the deepest group the Dodgers have. No, I definitely don’t miss seeing Allen Webster here. No, not at all. Not even a little. 

Right-handed starting pitching is the backbone of every organization’s depth on the mound. For all the future stars, however, there are also plenty of guys working merely as filler. The Dodgers have plenty of organizational arms who throw right-handed, along with a few legitimate stars inching closer to the big leagues and some sleepers scattered about from Double-A to rookie ball.

This is Fife. He is probably not going to be the Isotopes' right-hander that will get Dodgers' fans excited this season. (Photo courtesy of the Isotopes)

This is Stephen Fife. He is probably not going to be the Isotopes’ right-hander that will get Dodgers’ fans excited this season. (Photo courtesy of the Isotopes)

If there is a surprise this season it is in the lack of random veterans, the kind of guys used to fill out Albuquerque’s staff. So far the Dodgers have only brought into two right-handed vets and one lefty (see the entry on the not-so-fabulous Fabio Castro). It is perhaps a reflection of Triple-A vets shying away from both Albuquerque’s altitude and, even more likely, the lack of a perceived opportunity to move up to Los Angeles. The Dodgers have eight legit starters in the mix this spring, which does not make them very attractive to job-hunting journeymen.

So from the guys expected to be Isotopes to those who will stay behind in extended spring training, here are the Dodgers’ right-handed starters. Take note, to be listed here, a pitcher would need to have made over half his appearances last season as a starter. Not all are still guaranteed to start this season, and some relievers (who will be in the next post on this series) from last year might be stretched out as starters this year.

Stephen Fife: A perfectly average starter, with average stuff and average velocity, every team seems to have a few Fifes lying around. The key is that they are usually at Triple-A, only called upon for a few spot starts per season. That figures to be Fife’s role again after he went 11-7 with a 4.66 ERA with the Isotopes and 0-2 with a 2.70 in five starts with the Dodgers. He’s not a big strikeout guy — 93 in 135 1/3 innings at Albuquerque; 20 in 26 2/3 in L.A. — and he joined the short list of pitchers with a better ERA at Isotopes Park (3.68) than on the road (5.58). Barring a rash of injuries to the guys in front of him, or an injury of his own, he should be the Isotopes’ opening-day starter against the Iowa Cubs on April 4.

Matt Palmer: A 34-year-old journeyman, Palmer is the type of guy the Dodgers sign to pitch at Albuquerque just about every off-season. He has 672 2/3 career innings in the Pacific Coast League with Fresno, Salt Lake and Tucson, posting a 4.86 ERA and going 41-46 since 2008. He suffered through a fairly lousy campaign with the T-Padres last year (6-9, 5.66) and only made three relief outings in San Diego. Palmer once went 11-2 with the Angels back in 2009, but that seems eons ago. He will eat innings at Albuquerque, nothing more, nothing less.

Mario Santiago: The 28-year-old returns to the U.S. after spending 2012 with the SK Wyverns in South Korea. Santiago went 6-3 with a 3.40 ERA in 18 starts for the Wyverns, who were the runners-up to the Samsung Lions for the second year in a row in the Korea Series. Santiago has never been overpowering in his career, which stretches back to 2005 when he was a 16th-round pick by the Royals out of Baton Rouge JC. Santiago has just 458 strikeouts in 714 2/3 career minor-league innings. He only struck out 49 in 95 1/3 innings with the Wyverns last year. His only Triple-A experience came in 2011 with Omaha (Royals), when he was 3-3 with a 5.70 ERA and two saves in 19 games (four starts). He seems more likely to start than relieve for the Isotopes, barring any additional pitching signings.

Zach Lee: A little bit of the shine came off the former first-round pick after a so-so campaign between Chattanooga and Rancho. Lee went 6-6 with a 4.39 ERA, throwing 121 innings in 25 starts. He struck out 103 and walked 32. His biggest issue, according to just about every prospect report, is that he lacks a signature out pitch. This will consign him to the dust bin of … No. 3 starters. Oh, darn. Look, Lee is 21, his fastball sits between 90-95 mph and can sink and cut, he has a good slider and a potentially plus changeup. There is still plenty of time for him to develop. He will return to the Lookouts, and with a legit No. 1 (Kershaw) and No. 2 (Greinke) already on the roster, if Lee only turns out to be a No. 3, well, the Dodgers will not complain, especially when his $5.25 million signing bonus comes out to about one-fifth of Kershaw’s inevitable mega-salary.

Matt Magill: While Lee lost some luster, Magill was on helium in 2012, shooting up the prospect lists. The 23-year-old right-hander was a 31st-round pick out of Royal High School in Simi Valley back in 2008, but he sure didn’t pitch like one with the Lookouts. Magill went 11-8 with a 3.75 ERA in 26 starts, striking out a Southern League-leading 168 batters in 146 1/3 innings. Magill’s out pitch is his slider, a sharp, late-breaking pitch that sits in the low 80s. His fastball sits 91-92 with movement and has touched 95. Now comes the tough part for the guy ranked No. 9 in the Dodgers’ farm system by Baseball America — pitching at Albuquerque. There are too many guys lined up behind him to pitch in Chattanooga this year (Lee, Santiago, Chris Reed, Aaron Miller, Onelki Garcia, Rob Rasmussen) and not enough guys for the Isotopes. Magill was added to the 40-man roster, but now comes the tough part. Hopefully he can get a hold of John Ely‘s phone number.

Andres Santiago: The 23-year-old Puerto Rican has been around for a while, but he finally seemed to put things together in 2012. A 16th-round pick in 2007, Santiago broke through between Chattanooga and Rancho (6-5, 3.69, 122 Ks in 112 1/3 innings). It might not be enough to guarantee him a rotation spot to open 2013 back in Chattanooga with all the guys I listed above, but he figures to at least be a spot starter/long reliever at the outset of the season. Santiago has an 89-92 mph fastball that touches 94, a low-to-mid-80s slider and a plus changeup. He has the stuff to start, but for now I expect him to open as a reliever with the Lookouts.

Garrett Gould: The 21-year-old’s name popped up in the spotlight back in July when the Dodgers were rumored to be sending him to Houston for the corpse of Carlos Lee. This created a small furor on the internet among Dodgers fans, who mostly wanted no part of Lee but were also loathing the thought of trading an actual prospect for the aging ex-slugger. Thankfully, Lee invoked his no-trade clause, and Gould stayed put. Well, Gould probably could have used a break from Rancho Cucamonga, where he took it on the chin most of the year. Gould was 5-10 with a 5.75 ERA, allowing 140 hits and 54 walks in 130 innings. Still, the former second-round draft pick is young enough, and the Cal League is challenging enough, that no one is about to give up on him. Gould’s fastball usually sits 87-89 mph, but it’s his sinker and a plus 12-to-6 curveball that are his bread and butter. Due to the logjam ahead of him, Gould will likely open back with the Quakes and get another shot at taming the Cal League.

Brandon Martinez: A former seventh-round pick out of Fowler High School, Martinez had a season to forget. The 22-year-old finished with a 7.19 ERA at Rancho last season. He gave up 140 hits and 55 walks in just 106 1/3 innings. Martinez has some decent stuff, including a 90-94 mph fastball, a good slider and a changeup, but his command evaporated in the desert air of the Cal League. At this point, a move to the bullpen might seem more likely than subjecting him to another season of getting savaged by High-A hitters. Martinez is certainly an interesting story — he suffers from Tourette syndrome and OCD — but if he pitches again like he did in 2012, he won’t be around much longer.

Jon Michael Redding: Essentially a poor man’s Fife, Redding put together an average season at Rancho in 2012. He was 9-7 with a 4.42 ERA, striking out 102 and walking 48 in 130 1/3 innings. A former fifth-round pick out of Florida College in 2008, Redding has been around for a while without really wowing anybody. He just seems to stick on the basis of his so-so pitchability. He has a low-90s fastball, an inconsistent slider and a hard curveball. In most years, he would move up to Chattanooga, but there are far better pitchers who need to start ahead of him, and with Santiago already (likely) in the long relief/spot starter role with the Lookouts, Redding seems likely to return to Rancho for another go-around at the not-so-young age of 25.

Angel Sanchez: The 23-year-old Dominican had a rough year with the Quakes in 2012. He went 6-12 with a 6.58 ERA, allowing 157 his and 51 walks in 130 innings of work. His fastball sits in the low-90s, but it is too straight and lacks movement. He has an average changeup and a below-average curveball. The Dodgers haven’t give up on him yet, but he could easily be moved to the bullpen in 2013, where he might function better as a two-pitch guy anyway. He will return to Rancho regardless of his role this season.

Ralston Cash: The 21-year-old was the Dodgers’ second-round pick in 2010, but little has gone well since then. He injured his hip in spring training in 2011 and never threw an inning that year. Cash ended up throwing just 40 2/3 innings with Great Lakes in 2012, going 1-6 with a 6.42 ERA. He gave up 45 hits, walked 24 and struck out just 29 batters. Back when he was drafted Cash threw a 91-92 mph sinking fastball that could touch 94. He had a good curveball, an average slider and needed to work on his changeup. Now he just needs to work on getting healthy and staying healthy. He will likely do so back with the Loons to start 2013.

Gustavo Gomez: There is not much information out there on Gomez, a 21-year-old who was signed out of Panama back in 2008. He struggled at Great Lakes last year — 8-8, 5.63, 122 hits, 55 walks, 77 Ks in 110 1/3 innings — which was his first full year in a full-season league. For his career, Gomez has a 4.77 ERA and 303 strikeouts in 322 2/3 innings. He did not find the Midwest League very agreeable compared to rookie ball. His fate for 2013 is a mystery.

Arismendy Ozoria: Another Latin American who struggled in Great Lakes’ rotation, Ozoria is a 22-year-old who signed out of the Dominican in 2008. He went 8-8 with a 4.51 ERA for the Loons, with his other numbers looking an awful lot like Gomez’s numbers (115 2/3 innings, 124 hits, 50 walks, 77 Ks). Much like Gomez, he could move up to Rancho, repeat Great Lakes, or move to the bullpen with either team.

Raydel Sanchez: The 23-year-old filled the spot starter/long reliever role with Great Lakes, making 14 starts and 13 relief outings in 2012. He went 3-8 with a 4.64 ERA. He struck out 61 and walked 33 in 95 innings of work. Born in Cuba, Sanchez signed with the Dodgers as a non-drafted free agent out of Miami-Dade JC in April 2011. He could repeat his Loons role with the Quakes this season.

Duke von Schamann: The Dodgers’ 15th-round pick out of Texas Tech in last year’s draft, Von Schamann shot all the way up to Chattanooga to finish his first pro season, though it seems more likely that he will settle at Rancho in 2013. Using his sinker, slider and changeup, the 21-year-old went 6-4 with an ERA of 3.00 in 75 innings of work. He only struck out 44 batters, but he only gave up 14 walks as well. With that type of control he might just survive pitching for the Quakes.

Lindsey Caughel: Another later-round draft pick who may have overachieved a bit last summer, Caughel shined at Ogden and should move up to Great Lakes this year. The 22-year-old was a 23rd-round pick out of Stetson. He went 3-2 with a 3.38 ERA in 42 2/3 innings at Ogden, holding his own in a hitter-friendly environment. Caughel only gave up 33 hits and eight walks while striking out 29 batters. In college his fastball sat 88-91 mph and he had an average curveball. He will need more than that to succeed and keep moving up the ladder.

Carlos Frias: Signed out of the Dominican back in 2007, Frias bounced around the system in 2012. He finished the year 7-5 with a 4.73 ERA in 83 2/3 innings of work. There is not much more info out there on the 23-year-old, who just looks like roster filler in the low minors. He might move up to Great Lakes full-time this year, or he may be back with Ogden.

Luis Meza: The 22-year-old Venezuelan had a 2012 to forget, posting a 7.39 ERA in 28 innings of work. He made six starts and five relief appearances and could end up in the bullpen full-time this year, though he will almost certainly open in extended spring training.

Ross Stripling: The Dodgers’ fifth-round pick out of Texas A&M last summer, Stripling has caught the eye of scouts and prospectors alike. Baseball America pegged him as the Dodgers’ No. 10, while Keith Law had him at No. 8. A senior sign, Stripling is already 23 and could jump all the way to Rancho to open 2013, though Great Lakes might be a better place to stretch him out. He only threw 36 1/3 innings after a heavy college workload. Even in that short span he posted a 1.24 ERA, allowing just 26 hits and six walks while striking out 37 batters. He has a 92-93 mph fastball with run and sink that touches 96. He also has a plus 12-to-6 curveball, but he will need to improve his average changeup as he moves up the ladder.

Victor Araujo: A 23-year-old Dominican, he posted a 6.88 ERA in the Arizona League last summer. That’s not the type of thing that keeps one employed. Nine of his 64 hits allowed in 53 2/3 innings were home runs, which won’t play much better as he moves up the ladder, assuming he moves up at all. He will open in extended spring.

Zachary Bird: The Dodgers’ ninth-round pick last summer out of a Mississippi high school, Bird was more impressive than his numbers might indicate. Keith Law named him the Dodgers’ No. 10 prospect for 2013, as did FanGraphs. Bird had a 4.54 ERA in the Arizona League, but he did strike out 46 in 39 2/3 innings. Bird’s fastball sits 89-92 mph and touches 94. He has a good curveball, average changeup and a fringy slider that might get tossed aside as he moves up the ladder. With a strong spring the 18-year-old could force his way to Great Lakes, but Ogden seems more likely.

Jonathan Martinez: An 18-year-old who signed out of Venezuela in 2011, Martinez was impressive in the Arizona League. He went 3-0 with a 3.05 ERA, striking out 59 and walking just 16 in 59 innings of work. There isn’t much other info out there on Martinez, but if he pitches like that again this year at Ogden, there will be some buzz.

* * *

Well, that’s it for the right-handed starters. The relievers are up next (and no, I’m not gonna review every single guy who made at least one appearance out of the bullpen in all the Dodgers’ U.S.-based affiliates). Then that should be it, but that’s OK, because Mike is on vacation (and we usually know what that means) and pretty soon there will be real baseball to talk about.

Dodgers Invite 13 Prospects to Developmental Camp

Per Ken Gurnick of Dodgers.com, the club has announced the 13 players who will attend the annual Winter Development camp, to be held this year in Arizona since Dodger Stadium is undergoing renovations.

Pitchers Steve Ames, Onelki Garcia, Zach Lee, Matt Magill, Rob Rasmussen, Chris Reed, Paco Rodriguez & Chris Withrow will be joined by catchers Tim Federowicz & Matt Wallach and outfielders Jeremy Moore, Joc Pederson,& Yasiel Puig.

angels_jeremy_mooreI did a bit of a double take at Moore’s name, because we’d heard nothing about the former Angel signing with the Dodgers and his baseball-reference page still doesn’t even note the transaction. The outfielder, 26 next June, got into 8 games for the 2011 Angels and was ranked as Baseball Prospectus’ #9 Anaheim prospect headed into 2012:

The Good: Moore can do a little bit of everything. He’s an impressive athlete with plenty of bat speed and nearly average power; he has reached double digits in triples in each of the last four seasons. He’s an above-average runner who can steal bases, and a very good defensive outfielder in all three positions.
The Bad: Moore has always been an impatient hitter who gets into trouble when fed breaking balls early in the count. His arm is his lone below-average tool, but none of his tools are star-level, either.

Moore never did play in 2012 thanks to hip surgery, and he was outrighted off the roster in October. He’s likely headed for what looks to be a crowded Albuquerque outfield.

Otherwise, this is a good look at the prospects the team considers worth their effort to bring to Arizona in January to spend additional time with. As Gurnick notes, 8 of the 15 participants last year – Michael Antonini, Rubby De La Rosa, Stephen Fife, Shawn Tolleson, Josh Wall, Alex Castellanos, Federowicz & Scott Van Slyke — saw time with the big club later in the season (well, sort of, for Antonini). I’d say it’s not a promising sign that catcher Gorman Erickson, a past participant, was not invited back, which should tell you a lot about his falling prospect stock after a very disappointing 2012, and you can probably say the same for hopefuls Aaron Miller & Kyle Russell.

This Year, Trading Season Prices Look Higher Than Ever

Anyone still wondering if the lack of sellers in the world of four wild cards is going to increase prices?

Take yesterday’s Detroit/Miami deal, where the Tigers acquired half a season of Anibal Sanchez, a very good and underrated (FIP between 3.32-3.41 over the last three seasons) 28-year-old starter with some history of arm problems, along with solid-but-hardly-stellar second baseman Omar Infante. That cost them, along with a decent catching prospect who could be ready in 2013 and a lottery ticket arm, 21-year-old lefty Jacob Turner, the 9th overall pick in 2009, who made the bigs at 20 and has been ranked as Baseball America’s #26, #21, and #22 prospect before the last three seasons. He was also Detroit’s #1 prospect in Kevin Goldstein’s Baseball Prospectus rankings in each of the last two seasons, ahead of highly regarded third base prospect Nick Castellanos. (I’m assuming I don’t need to point out here that an 8+ ERA from a 21-year-old in six MLB games is all but useless to look at.) Detroit got a good starter for the playoff push this year, but paid handsomely to do it.

Or look at the yet-to-be finalized Ryan Dempster trade, which for two months of the 35-year-old Dempster would reportedly include at least 22-year-old righty Randall Delgado and possibly more. Delgado has struck out 574 in 543 minor league innings, and was ranked as BA‘s #35 & #46 prospect prior to 2011 & 2012. At BP, he was Atlanta’s #2 prospect behind Julio Teheran, though also in the “five-star” level along with Turner.

As Ben Lindbergh noted while reviewing the potential Dempster deal at BP, we’re already seeing what kind of effect the second wild card is having on the trading season (emphasis mine):

Last July, the Braves got Michael Bourn—who not only contributed 1.7 WARP to the Astros before the trade, roughly equivalent to Dempster’s 1.6 for the Cubs this season, but was under team control for the following season—for a package of four lesser prospects (Brett Oberholtzer, Jordan Schafer, Paul Clemens, and Juan Abreu). Delgado is easily better than any of those four. Those two trades are a study in quantity vs. quality, but Delgado alone is likely the better haul. If so, the Cubs got more for a half-season of Dempster than the Astros did for a season and a half of Bourn. Maybe that’s shrewd trading by Jed Hoyer and crew, or maybe it’s a reflection of a Wild Cards-created buyer’s market.

I don’t think that’s necessarily coming as a surprise, because we sort of anticipated that might be the case as soon as we found out about the expanded playoffs, but it’s instructive to see it coming to life. That means that if the Dodgers do make any sort of deal, whether it be for Matt Garza or Chase Headley or Aramis Ramirez or Hanley Ramirez, the way the market is coming together, we can expect that the price is almost certainly going to be far more than we’re comfortable with, unless it also comes with the Dodgers eating a ton of bad contract like Alfonso Soriano or Vernon Wells.

It doesn’t help, of course, that top Dodger prospect Zach Lee generally isn’t as highly regarded as either Turner or Delgado, coming in at #62 on BA‘s preseason list and as a four-star prospect (though still Los Angeles’ #1) on Goldstein‘s. As I don’t have to tell you, I’m putting almost no stock in a 20-year-old struggling in his first few games at Double-A, though I’ll admit it doesn’t help. None of that means that Lee won’t be a successful major leaguer, because I think we all believe he will be, and that means you don’t trade him for a rental like Dempster. But he may not be the ace we had hoped for, and that can have an impact on his value; he did not make Keith Law’s list of the top 20 prospects who may be moved in potential deadline deals today. Considering what teams are getting in the current market, perhaps it’s not foolish of the Cubs to have been (allegedly) asking the Dodgers for him in any Dempster deal.

All of this makes for what could be both a fantastically interesting and terrifying week and three hours until the deadline arrives. With the Dodgers now on a partially-Mets-fueled winning streak again, I don’t think there’s any question that they consider themselves buyers, and the way things are now, that’s a tough spot to be in.

On the Idea of Trading Zach Lee

As trading season heats up – and as news of Dee Gordon‘s thumb surgery leaves the Dodgers with three total black holes in the infield, along with their other issues – you can bet that you’re going to hear the name of Zach Lee coming up quite a bit in rumors more and more. As we’ve talked about a lot, the Dodgers are going to go all-in this year no matter how banged-up they get, and that means we could be seeing a lot of prospects headed out of town.

Lee’s the consensus top Dodger prospect, and as prospects go, he’s seen pretty favorably. He came in at #49 in Baseball America‘s midseason top 50 list yesterday, up from the #62 he was prior to the season, and ESPN’s Keith Law noted in a chat this week that he thinks Lee could turn into a #1 starter. In parts of two seasons, he’s struck out 153 against 45 walks, and at the end of June he made it to Double-A Chattanooga two months ahead of his 21st birthday. Even the few less-positive reviews of Lee I’ve seen say that he might only be a #3 type rather than a true ace, and while that might not be as high of a ceiling as we’d like to dream on, that’s still a pretty valuable major leaguer.

If that all sounds good, it should, because Lee is probably the most highly-regarded Dodger pitching prospect since Clayton Kershaw. That, of course, makes him desirable in the eyes of teams hoping to gouge the Dodgers this month as they desperately try to patch up their offense despite a lack of other high-end prospects. The idea of trading Lee stirs up a lot of different emotions in people; to some, he’s absolutely untouchable, while to others, he’s just a long-away prospect.

For my part, I never consider any prospect completely off-limits, unless you’re dealing with a once-in-a-generation type like Mike Trout or Bryce Harper. There’s a price to be had for any prospect, and if you can extract proper value, then so be it. While we all like to think that every draft pick is going to excel in a Dodger uniform, it doesn’t always work that way; value can be had in trade as well as on-field performance. It just has to be for the right reasons in the right situation, is all – and apologies if you’ve heard me say this a million times before – and that’s why trading Carlos Santana for two months of Casey Blake and James McDonald for twenty minutes of Octavio Dotel never made much sense.

So is there a deal out there which could be appropriate to include Lee in? I’ll say this right off the bat, there’s absolutely no way I would do what the Giants did with Zack Wheeler last season and trade Lee for a rental who can walk at the end of the year. There’s almost no player out there who could impact this Dodger team so much in just two months that giving up six years of Zach Lee makes sense, and if that means we’re not going to be seeing Cole Hamels or Zack Greinke this summer, then I’m okay with that. I’d much rather hang on to Lee, accept that Ryan Dempster (or someone like him) will contribute about a win less over the remainder of the season, then throw gobs of cash at Hamels or Greinke and have one of them join Kershaw and potentially Lee himself in a fantastically interesting rotation for the next few years. No rentals are worth losing Lee over. Period.

If you’re trading someone like Lee, it’d better be for someone who’s under team control for at least another year if not more, and that’s where things get interesting. The stars you’d like to get – let’s say, a Joey Votto, or an Andrew McCutchen – are obviously not available on any planet, and the rest of the market is flooded with non-impact plug-ins. The obvious names here are the two we’ve been talking about for some time, Houston’s Jed Lowrie & San Diego’s Chase Headley. Each are controllable through 2014, and the fact that they bring two additional years of control beyond this season makes them immensely valuable. (That’s right, I’m now in the position of saying that Lowrie & Headley may be more valuable trade commodities than Hamels & Greinke, though obviously not better players, just because of how much of their time you’re purchasing.) Lowrie & Headley were born less than a month apart from each other in 1984, which puts each into their age-28 season right now and makes them under team control through their age-29 and -30 seasons, which is exactly when you want a player.

Whichever one you get, you’re not only fixing a current need at third base – Lowrie would fill in for Gordon first in the short term, of course – you’re handling a future need, because the Dodgers have absolutely nothing at the position in the minors and the best of the upcoming free agency class might actually be Maicer Izturis. Which, ugh. Given the choice between the two, I’d probably prefer Headley, since he’s been far more durable and is a better defender; besides, I like the version of Headley that’s away from his pitching-friendly home field (.848 OPS this year) much better than I do Lowrie away from Houston (.716 OPS).

Are either worth Lee? I’d like to think that it’s possible to get either without, but I don’t know that it is. Though I’d like to get Lowrie, I wouldn’t trade Lee for him, not with his injury history and the fact that just a few months ago he was worth only a kinda-good reliever (Mark Melancon) and a fringe starter (Kyle Weiland). As for Headley… well, on name value alone, no. But he’s a third baseman at a time where finding a third baseman is becoming impossible, and he’s a very good one; right now, he’s second behind David Wright in fWAR on the season, and since 2010, he’s ahead of Wright and behind only Adrian Beltre & Evan Longoria. Because he plays for a poor team in a small market and in a ballpark that crushes his productivity, he rarely gets press, yet adding him would solidify third base for the next two-plus seasons at a time where I genuinely have no idea where else they could turn.

Of course, Headley & Lowrie aren’t the only two guys on the market, but they do seem to be the only guys who could help now and into the future. I suppose some team could try to put together an interesting package that relies more on quantity than quality, since the Dodgers have so many holes right now. But that doesn’t seem worthy of moving Lee for. Unfortunately, if the Dodgers want to improve their offense, they may be forced to do so via trade, because, the list of upcoming free agents is less than appetizing; as we’ve seen in Los Angeles with Matt Kemp & Andre Ethier, teams just don’t let their quality young bats make it to free agency anymore. Look at the list of guys coming free after 2013, and you’ll mostly see players who were at their peak years ago, aside from outfielders Chris Young, Shin-Soo Choo, & Hunter Pence, none of whom might be available or good fits for a trade right now in 2012.

I don’t want to trade Zach Lee. I hope, badly, that he’s still in the organization a month from now, and I don’t see a lot of reasons to move him. Still, the more I think about Chase Headley, and how perfectly he fits this team’s needs both now and in the future, and how much easier it would be for this team to replace one pitching prospect than find a third baseman… well, I don’t know if I’m quite there yet in moving Lee for him, but I think I could certainly be talked into it.