Let’s be clear: few, if any, thought the extravagant three-year deal bestowed upon him by Ned Colletti last winter would actually be worth it. We all know that Colletti’s multiyear deals for non-elite relievers never work out, and so far this one looks worse than any other.

But to be completely fair, I don’t think anyone really expected this, either. League’s 5.19 ERA is close to what a 5.40 FIP says he ought to have; whether you’re using standard stats or advanced metrics, he’s been garbage. That’s surprising, because we all remember his outright dominance last August & September after a mechanical change implemented by Ken Howell & Rick Honeycutt. If not enough to make the contract worthwhile, it did seem to be a viable reason to expect some return on that investment, and gave us all ammunition to strike back at those who just looked at his 2012 as a whole.

Through nearly two months of the season, League has been a complete mess, striking out an atrocious 4.15 per nine. This isn’t due to bad luck that should even out — a .279 BABIP isn’t that far off average — it’s quite simply that he’s not missing bats. Well, that, and that he’s giving up homers at a pace like he’s never done before.

At first I thought, well, okay, perhaps he’s just failing to stick with the mechanical changes and is going back to the old way that cost him his job in Seattle. But in looking through the video, nothing stands out as being obviously different, and as we can see from Brooks Baseball, the change that happened near the end of last year in his vertical release point looks to have stuck so far in 2013:

If charts aren’t your thing, take a look for yourself at two pitches chosen at random over the two seasons. At left, a pitch that struck out Joaquin Arias last October against San Francisco; at right, giving up a double to Miami’s Adeiny Hechavarria on Mother’s Day. Other than the high socks and pink Mother’s Day shoes, do you see much of a difference in his mechanics? I can’t say I do, nor does it seem that he’s moved his position on the rubber.

So he’s throwing it the same way, from the same position. That doesn’t seem to be the problem.

How about his pitches. Are they flat? Are they simply not not moving? While he’s lost some horizontal movement on his pitches, he’s increased the vertical movement at the same time:

Here’s where we get into the weeds where I fully and completely admit that I am not a pitching coach, because if you were to ask me, “well, is one movement better than the other,” I’d say “sure, why not”; the truth is, I don’t have a good answer to that.

But you don’t need to be a pitching coach to know that this next part is a problem. While League has slowly been throwing his sinker less over the years — he used to get grounder rates in the 60-73% range, down to 56.1% this year — his splitter seems less effective because his velocity has been on a steady downturn as well.

That seems damning, but I’m hesitant to put this all on reduced velocity, because it’s not like he was throwing 99 last September and he was doing just fine. But it’s a bad trend, isn’t it? Last September, League got swings on half of his splitters, half of which were missed, resulting in a 27.1% swing-and-miss rate. This year that’s down to 20% misses; his sliders are down from 27% to 13% misses.

Across the board, he’s just not generating missed bats, and it’s difficult to know exactly why. Though I can’t really quantify this in an effective way, it surely seems that while he’s not become suddenly wild — his walk rate is down from last year — he’s not hitting his spots. That is, when he’s getting the strike zone, he’s getting all of the strike zone, and that leads to a lot of solid contact

To be honest, the smartest thinking on the subject might have come in less than 140 characters…

It may just be that League is this awful, but this is usually the moment in the storyline when we find out he’s been pitching hurt all year.

— Jon Weisman (@jonweisman) May 19, 2013

Lowered velocity, lousy command, and fewer swing-and-misses? Something has to be behind all this, and nothing seems clear from a mechanical point of view. An injury would make as much sense as anything else, but until we hear anything on that front, we’ll continue to be grasping at straws — expensive, long-term straws.

On what has to be one of the oddest days in recent Dodger memory — you’ll understand that this not a statement to be taken lightly given that this is a franchise where “Russian faith-healing psychics” were part of a real news story not that long ago — we at least have this, a surprisingly unsatisfying 9-2 victory.

I say that not because the rare outburst of offense wasn’t fun, because it was. Aside from Hernandez, Carl Crawford, Matt Kemp, Nick Punto, & Scott Van Slyke each had two hits and a walk, with Van Slyke’s two doubles and two driven in a welcome payoff for Don Mattingly‘s unexpected decision to sit Andre Ethier against a righty. That righty, Wily Peralta, was bounced out of the game in the midst of a five-run second inning, and Hyun-jin Ryu was effective once again while working into the eighth inning. The fireworks might have been even more had Ryan Braun not taken a home run away from Adrian Gonzalez with a spectacular play in left field.

…and yet, I’m having difficulty enjoying this, because it seems to change little. Mattingly didn’t just bench Ethier, he seemingly went into full “screw you” mode with his pre-game comments:

I don’t know what happened with Ethier behind the scenes, though anyone surprised that he’s got a reputation as being difficult hasn’t been paying attention — and yes, they did try to trade him over the winter.

But whether or not you agree with what Mattingly is saying, it’s hard to look at this as an organization that’s all on the same page right now. I can’t imagine what Ned Colletti’s reaction was to that, and while a 9-2 victory and taking the series is nice, I don’t really see how it changes much — and I’m still far, far from certain that Mattingly is the manager when the St. Louis series kicks off on Friday back at Dodger Stadium.

To which I ask… why? Because Clayton Kershaw being his usual stellar self got the team a win in the opener against the Brewers on Monday? That remains the only victory the team has had in the last five games, and if we’re looking for signs that things have turned around, I’m not really seeing them.

This is not to say I’m suddenly on the “Fire Mattingly” bandwagon, because you know that I am not for all of the reasons we’ve been over a million times. But I have shifted to the side that accepts it will probably happen, and with something like 56 hours between the start of today’s game and the first pitch of Friday’s opener against St. Louis, if the move is coming it’s hard to find a better time to do it than right now.

If this is the end for Mattingly, he’s certainly chosen an interesting lineup to go out on. Nick Punto steps in for Dee Gordon for the second time in the last four games, which is fine, because Gordon is terrible, but Andre Ethier is sitting against a righty starter, which is almost unthinkable. We’re also seeing a Ramon Hernandez start for the first time since May 7, though without Tim Federowicz around someone has to relieve A.J. Ellis.

To be honest, I’m wondering if there’s an Ethier injury we don’t know about, not only because he’s sitting against a righty (!), but because Dylan Hernandez passes on a report from Mattingly that the team has discussed calling up Joc Pederson & Yasiel Puig. Aside from all the reasons why that seems silly, it makes me wonder if outright desperation is settling in… and rarely does anything good come from that.

(Update: Hernandez says Ethier is not hurt, just that Mattingly “wants to field team that will compete the best.” Uh, yikes.)

Despite Greinke’s poor start, the bullpen managed to pick him up for once with four scoreless innings out of Matt Guerrier, Ronald Belisario, & Javy Guerra. But while Greinke did at least collect two singles tonight, and while I like the idea of having starting pitchers like Clayton Kershaw, Greinke, & Hyun-jin Ryu who might not be total black holes at the plate — that’s Dee Gordon‘s job, no? — we’re once again talking about a Dodger loss thanks to a total inability to score.

Remember, as lousy as Greinke was, he still lasted longer than the 3.1 innings Milwaukee starter Hiram Burgos put forth. But despite 10 hits, not a single one went for more than a lone base, and the Dodgers ending up leaving 14 men on. The middle of the order — that’d be Adrian Gonzalez, Matt Kemp, & Andre Ethier — combined to whiff seven times, and given that Greinke drove in one of the two runs, the only hitter who managed to drive home anyone was Nick Punto. They did at least manage to bring the tying run up against Jim Henderson in the ninth, but the Milwaukee closer blew away pinch hitter Scott Van Slyke to end the game.

So here we are yet again, saddened by an impotent offense and little indication of change to come. Don’t forget that they get back right at it with a 10:10am PT matinee tomorrow, followed by a merciful day off on Thursday. Will we get some inevitable news that day? Well, the stories about the axe falling on a certain manager just won’t stop…

Zack Greinke made 23 starts in Miller Park, all as a Brewer in 2011-12. (Okay, and one relief appearance with Kansas City back in 2007). Over that span he went 15-0 — and you all know how stupid I think pitcher wins & losses are, so the fact that I’m even bothering to point it out here says something — and struck out 183 in 149.2 innings.

I don’t know what it is that Greinke likes about this park, but I’m pretty happy to have him doing there in Dodger blue tonight rather than Brewers… well, darker blue.

That’s all I have to say today — thanks, work! — but that’s partially because after the insanity of the last few days… there’s no news. There’s no roster move, no lineup questions, just a regular baseball day. Given what we’ve seen lately, that’s a welcome change indeed.

So tonight there was the much-maligned Matt Kemp, hitting just his second homer of the year.

There was the struggling Andre Ethier, tripling in the first run and homering in the second. (Before getting ejected.)

And of course there was Clayton Kershaw, one of the few who had been showing up big all season long, refusing to let the bullpen squander another lead by simply refusing to let the bullpen get an opportunity to.

Over a long season, you need 25 men — more, really — to come together to make for success. But sometimes, all you need is the guys who you expect to carry the load to… well, carry the load.

David Vassegh reports that Mattingly “isn’t aware of all the rumors in the media today of his job being in jeopardy”, and while I get that he’s probably not spending a lot of time reading the papers right now, I find that more than a little difficult to believe. Then again, I’m really not sure what we expect Mattingly to say in response to that. “Yep, I’m totally going to be out of a job by the end of the week, you got me.” Of course not.

In the meantime, Ted Lilly has been activated and Matt Magill has been returned to Albuquerque. I had originally tried to justify this by saying that it’d be okay as long as Lilly was only here to be in the bullpen to help out some exhausted relievers, figuring that the fifth spot could be skipped on Thursday. That might yet be what will happen, but Dylan Hernandez reports that Lilly still figures to slot into the rotation. The team doesn’t need him, assuming he’s skipped on Thursday, until a week from tomorrow, and there’s a lot that can happen between now and then. Let’s hope it does; I don’t think anyone really wants to see Lilly making another start, especially after Magill looked good in Atlanta this weekend.

Other than Dee Gordon replacing the injured Hanley Ramirez, we’re actually looking at something that resembles the “regular” Dodger lineup tonight, in what should be a marquee matchup between Clayton Kershaw & Yovani Gallardo. I’m pleased to see that the terribly slumping Gordon — now without a hit in his last 17 plate appearances — is still hitting 8th if he has to be in there at all, and there’s not a lot I can do to argue with this lineup. So it’d be nice if they would start to, you know, hit.

I feel like I’ve been over this a million times, but just so there’s no mistake about my position, let me offer it in crystal clear terms: though I like Mattingly more than most, I can’t argue that he’s done some sort of phenomenal job, and so if he gets fired, that’s totally fine — just don’t pretend like it’s the magic bullet that will save the season. It won’t. Managers just aren’t that important. Or as I said when we went through this last week…

If that happens and Mattingly goes, I won’t have any cause to argue with the move, though I’ll stand by my opinion that it alone is not going to make much of a difference. (Actually, with Greinke just about ready to return, that will then set us up for months of arguing of whether the team’s likely-improved performance is due to a managerial change or simply better available talent, a fate I’m eager to avoid.)

Can’t wait for that, you guys. It’s going to be fun.

Anyway, this is coming to a head once again not just because of how lousy the team looked in getting swept in Atlanta this weekend, but because Ken Rosenthal is reporting that he is “convinced Mattingly is going to get fired”. This appears to be more Rosenthal’s speculation than any actual reporting, so I hesitate to put too much stock into it, but I do agree that Mattingly’s time is growing short — and I absolutely agree with Rosenthal’s assertion that an off-day before a homestand is the ideal time to make such a move. (Bill Shaikin reports that he has been told there are “no plans” to fire Mattingly, though as much as I respect Shaikin’s work, statements like that from an unnamed official rarely end up being concrete.)

So is tonight the beginning of Mattingly’s final series as manager? I can’t say I know, though I will say that I feel a lot better about a series that will feature Clayton Kershaw, Zack Greinke, & Hyun-jin Ryu than one that had Chris Capuano, Matt Magill, & Ryu (though both of the first two actually performed pretty well). I do know this, though — if the plan is to fire him this week, then that decision better have already been made, because if you’re really making such choices based on one three-game series against a non-divisional opponent, that speaks to a larger problem.

But for all the reasons why it’s not fair to hang this on Mattingly — injuries to the rotation, poor roster construction, injuries, under-performing players, injuries, etc — the fact that we seem to come back to this every few days is not a situation that can continue. I said that a few days ago too, because if he is a dead man walking, then the organization is not putting the team in the best position to win.

So whether or not I think Mattingly should get fired, I have swung to the side that thinks he will, and all that’s left now is when and who steps in. Maybe it’ll be Tim Wallach, or Trey Hillman, or someone from outside the organization (but please lord, not Tony LaRussa); I suppose I’d lean Wallach, though I doubt it really matters all that much. Then we can all spend the rest of the year fighting each other when a roster that has Greinke & Hanley Ramirez performs better than one that didn’t.

The sad part is, we all know who deserves to be the man shouldering the blame, if there is one, and that’s the same man I’ve been wanting to see exiled since at least 2007. But Ned Colletti has a newly-minted long-term extension tucked into his cowboy boots, and a change in the front office seems very far from imminent.

After all, Dodger fans are so shell-shocked by the team’s shoddy bullpen and lack of offense that winning a rain-shortened game actually feels far, far preferable than watching actual Dodger baseball at this point.

Of course, those who felt that way were in no way whatsoever wrong to do so, because really, what was ever going to happen here? J.P. Howell, Ronald Belisario, Paco Rodriguez, & Kenley Jansen managed to nurse the lead through the bottom of the seventh, but then Jansen allowed the first two men in the eighth to reach.

It’s here, really, that you’re walking a dangerous line. Do you want to bring in Brandon League with two on and none out, even though he’s been awful? Do you want to run Jansen into the ground, pitching into his second inning after pitching yesterday and for the fourth time in six days? Do you want to bring in the remaining available relievers, Matt Guerrier or Javy Guerra, each of whom are generally terrible?

There’s not really a good option there, and in my book that goes far more to the front office than the manager’s office. Don Mattingly went with League, and it went as horribly wrong as you’d expect. Basically doing nothing but pumping balls down the middle, League allowed a bunt sacrifice — botched by third baseman Juan Uribe, and more on that in a second — a run-scoring hit to Gerald Laird, a sac fly to Ramiro Pena, a run-scoring hit to Chris Johnson, and a run-scoring squeeze to Jordan Schafer.

By the time he finally got through it, the 2-1 lead was quickly 5-2 Braves, and League — no matter if he’s the closer or the last man out of the bullpen — is an absolute mess right now. That served to blow a fine outing for Matt Magill, who struck out nine in six innings.

But of course, the bullpen isn’t the only problem here, is it? Once again, the punchless offense managed only three hits, none after Matt Kemp‘s third-inning double. Once again, the defense was poor, with Uribe, Nick Punto, & even Mark Ellis pitching in with damaging errors.

There’s a lot of room to place blame for this all-around mess. I don’t want to get in to the entire “fire Mattingly” business again, because we’ve been over this entirely too many times and you all know my thoughts there. The sad thing is, it’s becoming apparent that it really doesn’t make a bit of difference at all who is managing this team, because there’s just really too many holes to fix at once.

That’s not uplifting, I know. So… on to Milwaukee?

Well, Ellis is back today and starting at second base. But is Cruz gone? Of course not.

Despite some early morning noise about a sore elbow that seemed all but certain to have appeared just to have an excuse to disable Cruz rather than DFA him, it is actually catcher Tim Federowicz who gets optioned hack to Albuquerque to make room. Yes, that means that Ramon Hernandez, who Don Mattingly has been all but unwilling to use, stays.

Does that make sense? Of course not. But then again, what have we ever really expected from the 2013 Dodgers other than inexplicable roster moves and outright disappointment? And as I type this out on a crowded bus, I can’t say that yet another confounding move really sticks out from all the others at this point.

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