So You Want to Fire Your Manager

brandon_league_april2013_vs_piratesBrandon League was again awful last night, walking the leadoff man in the ninth and then giving up a two run home to Paul Goldschmidt to break open what had been a 3-3 game when he entered. League has been atrocious, and it certainly looks like Ned Colletti’s three-year deal that was panned by just about everyone outside of Los Angeles is meeting those sad expectations.

So there’s a conversation to be had about what’s wrong with League, especially after the Dodger coaches were able to find and fix a mechanical flaw that made him so dominant late last year, and whether Kenley Jansen should be the closer. Fine.

Yet when I woke up this morning — and no, of course I didn’t stay up late to watch this mess of a team right now — I didn’t have a hundred tweets about how terrible League was waiting for me, or about how Josh Beckett was again mediocre, or about how the offense could manage three single runs against a somewhat shaky Brandon McCarthy.

No, the conversation was once again, “Fire Don Mattingly,” and it’s getting to be a bit much. This is starting to kill me because all logic has gone out the window here. If you think he’s making a mistake by keeping League as the closer, that’s a reasonable argument to have, and that seemed to be the tenor of many of the complaints.

But it’s difficult to see how that’s relevant in last night’s loss, because League, as lousy as he was, didn’t even blow a save. He was brought into a tie game, and he performed poorly. If he and Jansen swapped roles, League could have just been awful in the eighth inning of a tie game and the runs still would have been on the board. That’s not even considering the wrongful assumption that Jansen would be infallible as the closer, which he wouldn’t be, because he’s a human being going against the best hitters in the world.

If there’s an argument to be made against Mattingly last night, it’s his refusal to send up A.J. Ellis in place of the completely cooked Ramon Hernandez in the eighth, with one out and Matt Kemp & Andre Ethier on. Hernandez & Skip Schumaker each failed to drive home runs, and the threat was over. Mattingly’s post-game quote to Ken Gurnick of “it didn’t seem like the right spot,” is infuriating, and on that point I couldn’t be more in agreement with you — though again, we don’t have all the information. We don’t know if Ellis was sore, or on the toilet, or just terrified by certain interpretations of himself as Rocky Balboa.

I’ll admit it’s probably none of those, and that Mattingly was just being stubborn, but no one can really say they know. Still, you look at why last night’s game was lost, and you point to League. You point to Hernandez’ 0-4, and those are both on Colletti more than anyone else. You point to a team that once again went 1-10 with runners in scoring position, and you point out that for all the grief Kemp’s been given, Ethier is hardly doing better.

You want to fire the manager? Fine. But don’t act as though it’s some silver bullet that’s suddenly going to make Hanley Ramirez & Zack Greinke & Mark Ellis & Chad Billingsley healthy, or Luis Cruz or League or Beckett less awful. Don’t forget also that it could actually hurt, because a great way to lose a clubhouse is to fire a manager who remains very popular among his players. The game is won with talent on the field, and regardless what the payroll is, the Dodgers just don’t have enough of it right now.

D’Backs @ Dodgers, May 7, 2013: What Fresh Hell Tonight?

dodger_stadium_openingday2013Today’s winner of disabled list roulette is… Jerry Hairston! Congratulations, Jerry, you’ve won an all-expenses-paid trip to the DL days after it was obvious it needed to happen, finally making you a True Dodger™.

As we’ve all expected, Elian Herrera comes from Albuquerque to take Hairston’s place, because no team can possibly have enough players who can play multiple positions yet can’t hit at any of them, and I really mean that, because Herrera’s at just .250/.310/.336 despite playing in the pinball environment of the Pacific Coast League. He’s spent most of his time at second base, but has of course also seen time at third, left, and center; he’s able to play right and shortstop as well.

Diamondbacks
Dodgers
CF
Parra
LF
Crawford
SS
Gregorius
SS
Gordon
1B
Goldschmidt
CF
Kemp
C
Montero
1B
Gonzalez
3B
Chavez
RF
Ethier
RF
Ross
C
Hernandez
LF
Kubel
2B
Schumaker
2B
Pennington
3B
Punto
P
McCarthy
P
Beckett

The funny thing is, I don’t mind a guy like Herrera on a National League team. A player who can fill in at a bunch of positions when most clubs prefer to carry an extra reliever rather than an extra bench player can be quite valuable, so good on him.

But on this team, it feels like that’s all the Dodgers have anyway. Nick Punto can play three spots, and so can Justin Sellers. Juan Uribe, Luis Cruz, & Skip Schumaker can all arguably play four — arguably — and that’s without even considering what Hairston provides when he’s healthy. Sure Herrera can play some outfield where the guys other than Schumaker can’t, but… so what? Schumaker really shouldn’t be playing second base over Punto anyway.

So did this team need another guy like that, or did they need a guy who can play first, left, and right, and who can actually hit one out of the park if he gets a hold of it? You tell me, and remember, I say that sticking to my long-held opinion that Scott Van Slyke really isn’t that great in the first place. Though he may be an option in the next few days, that won’t change the fact that there was a need more than a week ago. If anything, I weep for Alex Castellanos, who is missing his opportunity with a poorly-timed injury for the second year in a row.

But hey, at least Josh Beckett is starting tonight and A.J. Ellis is out (understandably, at least) and Dee Gordon will get more plate appearances now that he’s hitting second and… oh. Man, it just never seems to get better around here, does it.

Sat 5/11Sun 5/12Mon 5/13Tues 5/14Wed 5/15Thurs 5/16Fri 5/17
RR. Belisario15-21
RJ.Guerra1848-
RM. Guerrier13166-10
LJ.P. Howell4413-7
RK. Jansen25422-
RB. League1419-
LP. Rodriguez516-21

A.J. Ellis, Still the Best

ajellis_sanfran_2013-05-04I don’t want to talk about last night’s game. In fact, I don’t really want to talk about any part of the Dodgers right now, and we can only say “holy good lord, is this roster being mismanaged beyond belief” so much. Even if I did, the day job is preventing that.

So in the meantime, let’s focus on one of the few bright spots we have so far, and that’s that A.J. Ellis is not only backing up his 2012 breakout, he’s exceeding it. His wOBA is up from .341 to .358, which is not only very good, it’s the sixth highest mark for any catcher. (That’s assuming you consider Evan Gattis a catcher, and includes the no-way-in-hell-he-keeps-this-up John Buck.) It’s better than Yadier Molina, and Joe Mauer, and Matt Wieters… it’s damn good, is what I’m saying.

Today at FanGraphs, pal Eno Sarris took advantage of the Dodgers being in San Francisco over the weekend to spend a few minutes with Ellis. The entire piece is more than worth your time, but I particularly like this passage about Ellis being one of the few big leaguers to spend his winters in Wisconsin:

When the season’s over, he’ll head to Milwaukee for the winter. “My wife is from Milwaukee, so it’s happy wife, happy life,” he told me, which means he’ll train in the snow for another season. “I’m like Rocky in `Rocky IV,’” Ellis said, “going to fight the Russian, in the Siberian snow, chopping down trees, getting to the top of the mountain and yelling ‘Zitooo!’”

Simply outstanding. There’s not a lot to like about the Dodgers right now. Fortunately, A.J. Ellis is one of the few positives.

D’Backs @ Dodgers, May 6, 2013: The Stupid, It Burns

dodger_stadium_openingday2013And on the 10th day… he rested.

Well, maybe that’s not entirely accurate, because all Mark Ellis has been doing lately is resting. But finally, on the 10th day after originally hurting himself back on April 26th, he’s been placed on the disabled list to make room for the return of Chris Capuano. I can’t overemphasize this enough — Ellis sat, eating up a roster spot, for a week-and-a-half, and while that’s a poor choice in the best of circumstances, it’s unforgiveable when the bullpen is being overworked and Carl Crawford & Adrian Gonzalez are sitting out for games at a time with their own woes. He could actually return on Sunday, believe it or not.

Diamondbacks
Dodgers
CF
Pollock
LF
Crawford
SS
Gregorius
2B
Punto
1B
Goldschmidt
1B
Gonzalez
LF
Ross
CF
Kemp
C
Montero
RF
Ethier
3B
Prado
C
A.Ellis
LF
Parra
3B
Uribe
2B
Wilson
SS
Gordon
P
Cahill
P
Capuano

But wait! There’s more! I hesitated for as long as I could before publishing this because I saw that Adrian Gonzalez was in the lineup, and we’ve seen him be a late scratch for three days in a row due to his neck injury.

Well, he’s playing tonight, but don’t get too excited, because — per Dylan Hernandez — Gonzalez plans to play through the pain of his mild strain, skipping batting practice so he doesn’t aggravate it. He’s actually actively saying he hopes he doesn’t have to dive for a ball. A ballplayer pushing through pain? Such a thing has never ended poorly, ever.

If you thought that was it, you just wait: it gets dumber! Jerry Hairston tested his strained groin muscle during batting practice and came off limping. Don Mattingly said that if Hairston had to go to the disabled list, the club would recall an outfielder who could play either corner. That won’t be Alex Castellanos, who is still injured, but it could be Scott Van Slyke or Elian Herrera or Alfredo Amezaga. It’s probably going to be Herrera, since he’s the only one of the trio who is on the 40-man roster — as though that even matters, which is even more silly, because you just can’t collect enough light-hitting utility players! — and Van Slyke has been strictly a first baseman this year, but the specifics of who don’t even really matter too much at the moment.

Why? Because we shouldn’t have to be guessing at who it will be. It’s not like Hairston suddenly came up lame during batting practice. He’s been nursing this injury for days. Is there really a reason that Herrera or whomever couldn’t have been on a flight to Los Angeles last night or this morning to be on stand-by? If Hairston was good to go, then all you’ve lost is a round trip plane ticket and the Isotopes being down a man for today.

But no: no one is ready to step in. That means that once again, Mattingly is forced to play with a short roster. Not only that, but his primary first baseman is hurting, his backup first baseman is unavailable and probably headed to the disabled list, and his emergency first basemen are Juan Uribe & Luis Cruz. Crush him for his silly bunting choices all you want, but never forget these circumstances.

******

Why, you may ask, did I not include Yasiel Puig in the list of possible outfielders? Well, here he is showing up the batting practice pitcher with a massive bat flip:

I’ll admit that the the lizard brain part of me looks at this and says, “heh, awesome.” But back in reality, this is the kind of thing that drives organizations crazy. You can say that if he can hit it shouldn’t matter, but in addition to the on-field evidence that says he needs additional seasoning before being ready to step in, we now have multiple incidents of this plus an arrest for going 97 miles per hour. Maturity counts as much or more than batting average does. He’s just not ready.

Sat 5/11Sun 5/12Mon 5/13Tues 5/14Wed 5/15Thurs 5/16Fri 5/17
RR. Belisario15-21
RJ.Guerra1848-
RM. Guerrier13166-10
LJ.P. Howell4413-7
RK. Jansen25422-
RB. League1419-
LP. Rodriguez516-21

The Fine Line Between Panic and Inactivity

mattingly_mcgwire_arizona_2013-04-13Fire Don Mattingly! Terminate Sue Falsone! Recall Yasiel Puig! Bring up Zach Lee!

Panic moves, one and all, and yet it’s in no way surprising that they’re the kind of moves many Dodger fans are clamoring for. Most of these fall under this this ill-conceived equation:

1) The team absolutely must do something
2) Fire/Recall/Cut {person name} is something
3) Therefore, the team should fire/recall/cut {person name}

I think you can see that there’s a lot of missing pieces there in that line of reasoning. It’s May 6 and the team is four games under .500 while dealing with an endless stream of injuries. I won’t pretend that time is infinite here — losses in April & May count just as much as they do in September — yet it’s far too soon to make major, irrevocable moves for the sake of making them.

I consider firing Mattingly to fall under that category. If you look back through the site’s archives, you’ll see that I don’t have endless love for his work, and in fact I was disappointed that he was selected over Tim Wallach in the first place. While I admire his ability to run a clubhouse and am far from blind to the awful ownership conditions he had to deal with in his first two seasons, if he’s let go at some point, I won’t be too broken up about it. (If that happens via some sort of bunt-related communication, all the better.)

But to do so now, on May 6, sends the wrong message. It shows panic at a time when keeping calm is paramount. It shows that the manager’s decisions have more impact on the team’s failures than the absences of Zack Greinke & Hanley Ramirez or the struggles of Matt Kemp. It might actually scare off future candidates, and it almost certainly doesn’t help for 2013 because there’s little coherent case anyone can make that Wallach or Davey Lopes or Trey Hillman are clear upgrades.

It’s too soon to panic. Now, all that being said, this malaise can’t go on forever, and I’m sympathetic to those who insist that a message must be sent. Disabling Mark Ellis for Chris Capuano, as they are likely to do today, isn’t enough. At least one move that’s based on performance rather than injury needs to be made, and that just has to be to DFA Luis Cruz, hitting .091/.116/.091 in 70 plate appearances. You can argue that his slick glove warrants his job, but that holds less water on a team that has Juan Uribe & Nick Punto; you can argue that it should be Justin Sellers, yet that move brings less impact. Cruz came into the season as the starting third baseman and has been a dreadful flop, and it’s time to send a message that even on a team as battered as this one, certain standards must be kept. Whether that means you add Scott Van Slyke or Tim Federowicz or Peter Moylan matters little to me; it’s the intention that does.

If not, as seems likely? Well, the one move I’d be in favor of approximately 365 days a year is to make some changes in the general manager’s office. Unfortunately, that seems as unlikely now as it ever has. Something has to give, while the season still has legs.